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Emefiele and the Burden of a Prophet

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Mr. Godwin Emefiele, CBN governor
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By Jackson Ugbechie

Dateline June 2015: Godwin Emefiele, the Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), banned importation of 41 items which the apex bank classified as ‘not valid for forex’.

Emefiele and the Burden of a Prophet

Mr. Godwin Emefiele, CBN governor

These items ranged from consumables like rice, poultry products, vegetables and processed vegetable products to building materials like cement, roofing sheets, etc.

The aim was to encourage local manufacture of these items, all of which can be produced locally. The other objective of the ban was to ease pressure on the nation’s foreign reserves. Crude oil (the major source of forex) was beginning to lose its allure in pricing. Simply put: national income (inflow) was shrinking perilously.

Today, by benefit of hindsight, it could be appropriately said that Emefiele was a prophet who saw tomorrow and quickly rallied his people to prepare for the impending storm.

Not long afterwards, the real storm came bearing down on global economies. Nigeria and other nations with huge reliance on crude oil revenues took a heavy shellacking from the storm.

Crude oil prices took a dip. From a mere dip to a free fall until it bottomed out at $27.67 in 2016.

Fast-forward 2020. Oil price is still low. Recovery has been sluggish, accentuated by the global Covid-19 pandemic. Nigeria with a population of about 200 million, low export, heavy import-dependent economy and a lifestyle that borders on flamboyance has been much hobbled by the oil price drop.

The naira is still under pressure but it could have been worse if CBN is still funding the importation of the over 40 banned items.

It could have been more difficult defending the naira in the forex market. This is the sense in which Emefiele deserves commendation for his uncommon boldness to stop the issuance of forex for the importation of these items.

Emefiele’s foresight, vision and strong anticipatory hunch has saved Nigeria from what could have been the worst economic crisis in human history since the Great Depression.

The decision to declare over 40 items ‘not valid for forex’ must have been a difficult one to take. But great leadership is about making tough calls; taking, sometimes, unpopular decisions.

Emefiele did that at the most auspicious time. It was contrary to the wishes of the advanced economies of the West which see Nigeria as their largest, most profitable market in Africa.

A policy to encourage local manufacture and patronage of locally made goods should be music to any patriotic Nigerian.

It will encourage honing of skills, create jobs in millions, stop the drain on our external reserves and ultimately shore up the sagging strength of the nation’s primary sector.

But you don’t expect such decision to go down well with the advanced nations whose major market in Africa was about to be shut.

This explains the baleful treatise conjured by The Economist magazine to deride the CBN policy. The usually opinionated UK magazine had in the wake of the ban on importation of over 40 items published a self-serving satire on Emefiele’s efforts to save the naira.

The copiously disingenuous article in The Economist tried to denigrate the CBN policy. But that was not enough to make Emefiele change his mind. The multiple-award winning central banker, convinced that the policy was in the best interest of the county, stuck to his gun.

He was unwavering. Now, Emefiele has been proved right and The Economist wrong. Nigerians are producing the banned items from grains to roofing sheets.

No matter the cynicism from those who preach classical textbook economic theories to Nigeria but act otherwise in their native countries, the truth is that foreigners cannot love Nigeria more than Nigerians. Emefiele proved this truism by raising the red flag when he foresaw the lurking economic turbulence.

The Nigerian naira dilemma is a peculiar mess created largely by a clan of crooked Nigerian elite, it will never go away by mere application of economic theories that never worked anywhere, even in the advanced West.  The Nigerian problem can only go away by the application of well-thought through policies as Emefiele did.

To better appreciate the Emefiele magic, let’s consider this scenario. In 2013 at a time when crude price was $120 per barrel what CBN received to service the forex market from petroleum inflows either from petroleum products trading, royalty, taxes, NNPC etcetera was as high as $3.3 billion in a month. By June 2014 when external reserve had dropped to about $37 billion, what the nation got had dropped to less than $2 billion. Recall that the whole crisis started in July 2014 and by March 2015 when crude price had dropped to about $48pb, the nation’s reserve had gone down to $30 billion. At that point, what was coming in as forex which the CBN will use to service the market had dropped to about $1.3bn from about $3.3 billion in just over a year.

At that time, around January/February of 2015, CBN usually funds the forex market by Monday and Wednesdays with $200 million each of the days which is $400m in a week. At that time CBN was fighting the hostile market and saying we’ll defend the naira.

The inter-bank market was defending the market with about $100million per day which is $500 million per week. If you add that to the official buffer of $400m on the part of CBN, it adds up to $900m weekly. This means that in a month Nigeria needed $3.6 billion dollars minimum to fund the forex market and by interpretation fund importation.

As the price of crude continued its free fall, monthly outflow hit $4bn against an inflow of just $1.3 or $1.5 which brought net depletion of Nigeria’s reserve on a monthly basis to about $2.5 billion. If CBN had continued the depletion of our reserve from March 2015 by $2.5 billion monthly, by now Nigeria would have zero reserve. That is the stack reality.

And this is why Nigerians should commend the boldness and farsightedness of Emefiele to place a historical and landmark ban on over 40 items. Not only has he helped to boost backward integration, the policy eased pressure on the nation’s reserve.

Obviously, Nigerians are still paying dearly for their lavish lifestyle. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows significant importation of certain items. In the half-year (January – June) of 2019, Nigerians spent a total of N334.3 billion to import prepared foodstuffs, beverages, spirits, vinegar and tobacco. NBS says within that period Nigeria imported 21 different items with the major items including live animals, animal products, vegetable fats and oil, prepared foodstuffs, beverages, mineral products, textiles, broilers and vehicles.

Broilers, machinery and appliances form the biggest import which was estimated at N2.11 trillion. Mineral product ranked second with N1.3 trillion import in half-year 2019. Other top items on the import list include vehicles, aircraft and parts (N1.06 trillion), cement (N599 billion), metals (N386.1 billion).

In recent past before the restriction, Nigeria spent an average of $22 billion each year on food (rice, wheat, sugar, fish etc) importation. The sad fact is that all of this money go to reflate the economies of Thailand, India, China and the West.

If all of this could happen with restriction, imagine the scenario if there were no restrictions. Emefiele is indeed an unsung hero. That’s the burden of a prophet who is barely appreciated at home.

But first Nigerians must change their exotic and outlandish lifestyle. No nation builds a strong economy on importation.

_ Ugbechie, public affairs analyst, writes from Abuja.

 

 


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E-Financial

SEC Says CMOs Must Renew Registration in January

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has announced that Capital Market Operators (CMO’s) are to renew their registration from January 1 to 31, 2026.

SEC Says CMOs Must Renew Registration in January

In a bid to make the process seamless, the Commission says it will commence electronic receipt and processing of applications for registration and updates of registration information in the first quarter of 2026.

Dr. Emomotimi Agama, director general of the SEC,  stated this during an interview in Abuja.

According to Agama, “These initiatives reflect our commitment to leveraging technology for faster, more transparent, and efficient regulatory processes. The Commission is taking deliberate steps to make regulatory processes faster, more transparent, and technology-driven. We are investing in automation, databased supervision, and secure infrastructure to improve how we interact with the market.

The SEC Boss stated that through its Digital Transformation Portal, the Commission has automated registration and licensing end-to-end as operators can now submit applications, upload documents, and track approvals online, cutting down manual processing time and reducing the need for physical visits.

Commercial Paper Issuance Module 

He said the Commission has also rolled out the Commercial Paper issuance module, which allows operators to file documents, monitor progress, and receive approvals electronically while feedback from early users shows a clear improvement in turnaround time.

“Work is ongoing to automate quarterly and annual returns submissions, with structured templates and system checks to ensure accuracy. A returns analytics dashboard is also in development to support risk based supervision and exception reporting.

“To back these changes, we have started upgrading our IT infrastructure, servers, storage, networks, and security layers, to boost speed and reliability. Selective cloud migration is underway for platforms that need scalability and external access, while core internal systems remain on premisev5p for now as we assess security and cost implications.

“At the same time, we are strengthening data integrity and cybersecurity with vulnerability assessments and planned penetration testing once automation and migration phases are stable. These efforts show our commitment to building a modern, resilient regulatory environment that supports efficiency, investor confidence, and market stability.

Agama affirmed that the Nigerian Capital Market is clearly on a path toward digital transformation, therefore,  there is an urgent need for regulatory clarity on advanced technologies, targeted support for smaller firms, and capacity-building initiatives.

He said, “A phased and proportionate approach to regulating emerging technologies such as AI is essential, complemented by internal readiness through supervisory technology tools. Furthermore, investor education, particularly among younger demographics, will be critical to future-proof participation and drive fintech adoption.

“Innovation is vital, but it must be accompanied by responsibility. As operators embrace automation, artificial intelligence, and data-driven tools, they bear a duty to ensure ethical, secure, and compliant deployment. Safeguarding investor data, preventing market abuse, and maintaining operational resilience are non-negotiable.”

The SEC DG said that ultimately, responsible technology adoption is about building trust, the cornerstone of our markets saying that trust thrives on fairness, transparency, accountability, and regulatory compliance.

He therefore urged operators to uphold these principles adding that it would not only protect investors and systemic stability but also strengthen the long-term credibility and competitiveness of the Nigerian Capital Market.


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E-Financial

Naira Stability, Lower Borrowing Costs Expected in 2026 — CBN Survey

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The naira is projected to remain largely stable in the coming months, while borrowing costs are expected to ease as inflation moderates, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest Business Expectations Survey (BES).

Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest Business Expectations Survey (BES

CBN

The survey, which polled about 1,900 businesses nationwide, revealed that confidence in the local currency has strengthened. Respondents expect the naira to rise from an index of 28.8 points to 42.2 points by May 2026, extending the rare period of stability recorded throughout 2025.

Borrowing rates are also forecast to decline, with the index dropping from 15.4 points to 11.7 points, reflecting expectations of softer monetary conditions as inflationary pressures ease.

“Respondents expect the naira–US dollar exchange rate to steadily appreciate across the review periods, as indicated by the positive indices. They also anticipate a continuous positive outlook for borrowing rates during the same periods,” the BES report stated.

The naira has enjoyed an unusually long stretch of stability after losing about 41% of its value in 2024 following the unification of exchange rates. Analysts attribute the current calm to the CBN’s calibrated interventions and steady inflows from foreign portfolio investors.

Inflation, which stood at 14.45% in November 2025, is projected to fall to single-digit levels in 2026. This outlook could give monetary authorities room to begin a gradual easing cycle, potentially improving credit access for businesses.

Despite the improving macroeconomic environment, businesses continue to grapple with structural constraints. The survey highlighted insecurity (70.1 points), high/multiple taxation (69.7 points), and insufficient power supply (69.3 points) as the most pressing challenges. Other concerns include poor infrastructure and an unfavorable political climate, both scoring 57.7 points.

While optimism surrounds the naira and borrowing costs, the BES underscores the need for sustained reforms to tackle deep-rooted operational challenges. Analysts say that without addressing insecurity, taxation burdens, and infrastructure gaps, Nigeria’s businesses may struggle to fully benefit from the improving macroeconomic outlook.


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E-Financial

Sterling Bank, Water.org, Sterling One Foundation Partner on WASH Loan for Millions

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Sterling Bank, in partnership with nonprofit Water.org and Sterling One Foundation, has launched the Sterling WASH Business Loan to empower WASH businesses and scale sustainable access to safe water and sanitation for millions of Nigerians.

Sterling Bank, Water.org, Sterling One Foundation Partner on WASH Loan for Millions

L-R: Gilbert Okpono, Snr. Partnership Account Manager, Water.org; Engr. Mukhtaar Temitope Tijani, Managing Director, Lagos State Water Corporation; Mrs. Olapeju Ibekwe, CEO, Sterling One Foundation; Akporee Idenedo, Divisional Head Commercial Banking, Sterling Bank, at the Sterling Bank Water Credit Proposition held in Lagos recently.

The catalytic financing solution addresses daily struggles with clean water and safe sanitation, which impact health, livelihoods, and well-being, while strengthening delivery systems for WASH solutions.

Launched on Monday, November 24, 2025, at The Wheatbaker Hotel, Ikoyi, Lagos, the initiative signals a shared commitment to tackling one of Nigeria’s most pressing development challenges.

Abubakar Suleiman, Managing Director of Sterling Bank, said sustainable development hinges on collaboration and targeted investment in frontline businesses and people.

“By providing accessible financing to entrepreneurs in this critical social sector, we ensure progress reaches communities that need it most. This product aligns with our HEART strategy and commitment to improving quality of life through impact-driven initiatives,” Suleiman stated.

Gilbert Okpono, Nigeria Senior Partnership Account Manager at Water.org, stressed the transformative power of financing WASH businesses.

“Financial inclusion is critical to solving the global water and sanitation crisis. By expanding access to affordable financing, we enable households and WASH entrepreneurs to improve services, reach more communities, and transform lives,” Okpono said.

He added that the partnership reflects a belief in rippling benefits across health, education, and economic opportunity, marking a major step toward sustainable scaling.

The loan supports WASH entrepreneurs, small business owners, and community service providers with flexible financing to expand operations, boost health, livelihoods, and educational outcomes.

Olapeju Ibekwe, CEO of Sterling One Foundation, linked the initiative to the foundation’s mission of catalysing lasting social impact across Africa.

“Our Foundation catalyses initiatives that deliver real, lasting change. Access to safe water and sanitation is one of the most powerful investments in community well-being. We are proud to partner with Water.org and Sterling Bank for inclusive, scalable, and sustainable solutions,” Ibekwe affirmed.

The launch event gathered development partners, WASH entrepreneurs, media, policymakers, and community organisations to discuss coordinated financing, supportive policies, and market-driven solutions to close Nigeria’s WASH access gap.

Interested beneficiaries can visit the initiative’s website for more details.


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