E-Financial
FBNQuest Research sees Modest GDP Growth for Nigeria

After slipping into its second recession in 5 years, Nigeria’s economy is projected to expand by 2.0% in 2021 on the back of a modest fiscal stimulus and targeted private investment.

This is the view of the Research team at FBNQuest and was a key talking point during the Leading Conversations with FBNQuest webinar hosted by the firm to elaborate on its 2021 Outlook report published earlier this month.
With the theme “Tentative emergence from the shadow of COVID-19”, the outlook report captured the firm’s view on the Nigerian economy, socio-political environment and traditional asset classes (fixed income and equities) against the backdrop of the economic contraction that followed the COVID-19 pandemic which started last year.
The report notes that the second term of Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari, has been “hijacked” by COVID-19, with a sharp decline in oil prices and unprecedented lockdowns spurring a recession in 2020.
However, Nigeria’s government, unlike its counterparts in many advanced economies, has limited ammunition to catalyse a robust recovery in 2021. The report also highlights that the combined monetary and fiscal stimulus amounts to just 4% of GDP, compared to over 10% of GDP in large economies such as Brazil, Turkey, the United States, Canada, and Japan.
As Nigeria comes to grips with the challenges brought about by COVID-19, the report cites the speedy passage of the federal budget for the second year in a row and the end of fuel subsidy payments as positive reforms.
However, the insecurity in many parts of the country and the slow pace of oil sector legislative reforms were recognised as negatives for an economy desperate for strong and inclusive growth.
Nevertheless, FBNQuest expects low interest rates in the United States and an average Bonny Light Crude price of US$56 per barrel to support Nigeria’s economic recovery in 2021. In addition to fiscal stimulus and private-sector investment, the report identifies financial technology, agriculture, and ICT as primary drivers of growth in 2021.
With regards to asset prices, FBNQuest projects another positive year for equities in 2021. The research team notes that lower yields and the elevated liquidity available to domestic institutions buoyed stocks in 2020.
The impact of lower rates is expected to carry over into 2021, albeit with less dramatic impact, as domestic institutions are swayed by dividend yield offered by bank stocks. A number of non-financial stocks such as Seplat, Flour Mills, Nestle Nigeria and UAC of Nigeria are also expected to outperform in 2021.
FBNQuest projects that the NSE All Share Index will rise 20% in 2021, while in the fixed income market, yields are projected to rise by 3 percentage points to 10% to 11% on most bonds by the end of the year.
According to the firm, however these comments are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any stocks, as the report only seeks to present projections based on analyses.
On the exchange rate, the FBNQuest view is that a combination of higher oil revenue, multilateral loans and Eurobond sales should underpin reserves this year and allow the CBN to contain NGN exchange-rate depreciation. The forecast for average I&E/NAFEX rate is NGN419 per USD at end-2021.
E-Financial
FG Says All Taxable Nigerian Must Obtain Taxpayer ID

Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), in collaboration with the Joint Revenue Board (JRB), has announced the implementation of a nationwide Taxpayer Identification (Tax ID) system, mandating all taxable persons in the country to obtain a unified tax identity.

The directive, unveiled in a public notice issued on Monday, is anchored in sections 6, 7, and 8 of the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, 2025.
The provisions require every individual and entity liable to tax in Nigeria to register for a Tax ID as part of broader reforms aimed at strengthening tax administration.
According to the notice, the Tax ID will function as a single, consolidated identifier for taxpayers, enabling seamless interaction with tax authorities across federal, state, and local levels.
The authorities said the system is designed to eliminate duplication of records, improve data integrity, and enhance the overall efficiency of tax-related processes.
The initiative forms part of ongoing efforts by regulators to deepen transparency, boost compliance, and curb revenue leakages within the tax ecosystem.
By harmonising taxpayer data across all tiers of government, officials expect improved accountability and more accurate tracking of tax obligations.
Under the new framework, the Tax ID will replace the existing Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN) validation system currently in use. Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), financial institutions, and other organisations relying on the TIN Validation API have been directed to transition to the new Tax ID infrastructure.
The NRS and JRB also advised organisations requiring system integration or validation services to engage with designated departments within both agencies for access to the Tax ID Application Programming Interface (API) and related technical guidelines.
Authorities say the reform will simplify registration, filing, and payment processes for taxpayers, while providing the government with a more robust mechanism for revenue assurance and fiscal planning.
The rollout signals a significant step in Nigeria’s ongoing tax modernisation agenda, as policymakers seek to expand the tax base and improve non-oil revenue mobilisation amid evolving economic pressures.
E-Financial
SEC Sets June 1 for Transition to T+1 Settlement Cycle

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the transition to the T+1 settlement cycle for capital market transactions from June 1, 2026.

T+1 settlement is a financial rule requiring that securities trades (like stocks, bonds, and ETFs) be finalized and ownership transferred just one business day after the trade is executed. It replaces the older T+2 system, giving investors faster access to their funds and reducing overall market risk.
This is coming some months after Nigeria moved from the T+3 settlement cycle to the T+2 settlement cycle.
In a notice on Monday, the SEC, which is the apex capital market regulator in Nigeria, said it was authorising the new system to “promote an efficient, fair, and transparent capital market.”
Under the new arrangement, equities and commodities traded by investors at the market would be cleared and settled by the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) within one day.
The agency noted that the migration to a T+1 settlement cycle forms part of its ongoing market modernisation initiatives aimed at enhancing market efficiency and strengthening risk management. reducing counterparty exposure, improving liquidity, and aligning the Nigerian capital market with international standards and global best practices.
“Accordingly, all eligible trades executed in the Nigerian capital market shall settle one business day after the trade date (T+1),” a part of the statement noted.
It was stressed that “Friday, May 29, 2026, shall be the final trading day under the existing T+2 settlement cycle. Trades executed on Friday, May 29, 2026, and Monday, June 1, 2026, shall both settle on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. All trades executed from Monday, June 1, 2026, onward shall be subject to the T+1 settlement cycle.”
SEC tasked all capital market operators, securities exchanges, clearing and settlement infrastructure providers, custodians, registrars, issuers, and other relevant stakeholders to take all necessary measures to ensure full operational readiness and compliance with the new settlement framework.
“Market participants are expected to review and align their systems, processes, controls, and operational workflows ahead of the implementation date,” it further stated, promising to continue to engage stakeholders and monitor the implementation process to ensure an orderly and seamless transition.
The regulator said it remains committed to strengthening market integrity, enhancing investor confidence, and fostering the development of a modern. resilient and globally competitive Nigerian capital market.
E-Financial
Chapel Hill Denham Says Banks Lose N2.5 Trillion Annually to High CRR in New Report

Nigeria’s banking sector is losing an estimated N2.5 trillion in annual earnings due to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s high Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) policy, according to a new report by Chapel Hill Denham.

The investment banking and research firm said the policy continues to impose significant constraints on bank profitability by requiring lenders to keep a large portion of customer deposits with the Central Bank without earning returns on them, effectively locking away funds that could otherwise support lending and income generation.
In its report titled “The Nigerian Banking Paradox: High Returns, Deep Discounts,” Chapel Hill Denham noted that although Nigerian banks rank among the highest return-on-equity performers in Africa, they remain undervalued compared to peers, largely due to regulatory constraints and macroeconomic uncertainty.
The firm identified the CRR regime as a key structural factor limiting the sector’s earnings potential, arguing that it reduces balance sheet efficiency and restricts credit creation to the real economy.
According to the report, banks are still required to pay interest on deposits while a significant portion of those funds remains sterilised at the apex bank.
Chapel Hill Denham stated that the current policy framework, which evolved in response to past financial sector instability and exchange rate pressures, may now be exerting a heavier drag on growth and profitability than originally intended.
“Our analysis reveals that Nigerian banks operate under a uniquely restrictive regulatory perimeter,” the report said, adding that the structure suppresses reported returns despite underlying profitability strength.
The report also compared Nigeria’s reserve requirements with other jurisdictions, noting that the country’s CRR remains significantly higher than several African and emerging markets.
While South Africa operates a 2.5 per cent CRR, Kenya maintains 4.25 per cent, Ghana 15 per cent, and Egypt 16 per cent, with Morocco reported to have reduced its reserve ratio to zero.
Analysts at the firm said a moderation of Nigeria’s CRR from 50 per cent to 30 per cent could release up to N8 trillion into the banking system and potentially boost annual pre-tax profits by about N800 billion.
They added that investors currently price Nigerian banks on the assumption that the tight monetary stance will persist, limiting valuation upside despite strong earnings performance.
At its February 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria retained the CRR for Deposit Money Banks at 45 per cent, while Merchant Banks remained at 16 per cent, and public sector deposits outside the Treasury Single Account framework at 75 per cent, as part of efforts to sustain tight monetary conditions and manage liquidity pressures.
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