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Forex: Overview on the 2017 Key Market Themes

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Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM
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Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM provides an overview on the 2017 key market themes. Whether you consider 2016 a good or a bad year, it was by no doubt the year of surprises. Not just because Donald Trump was elected the 45th president of the United Stated or because the UK decided to leave the EU, but the markets’ reactions to these events were even more surprising and most forecasters got it wrong.

A new year has started and many questions remain to be answered; here are some of the most asked questions for 2017: Will the Trump rally carry on? How many rate hikes will the Fed deliver? What is the future of the UK and the EU? Will OPEC finally balance the oil markets?

Will The Trump Rally Carry On?
Following the election of Donald Trump on November 8, all U.S. major indices recorded new highs.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 8%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite gained 5%, and the small-cap stock market index Russell 2000 outperformed its peers rising by more than 13%.

From a market valuation perspective, very few may disagree that stocks are expensive, but the expected combination of fiscal stimulus and deregulation for some sectors under Trump’s presidency were the main catalysts for the rally. Of course, financial markets tend to price in events before they occur, but this time I believe investors have priced in most of the good news, and it requires very strong corporate profit growth to keep this bull market alive.

Predicting the end of the bull market is a tough call, but the downside risk in 2017 is likely to be larger than the upside potential. If U.S. policy makers succeed in delivering the anticipated growth we can see another 5 – 10% gains in U.S. stocks, but failure to do so will cause a steep selloff that could exceed 20%.

Day traders may be luckier than investors in 2017 as a new indicator has been added to their watch list: Trump’s twitter account.

On December 6, Trump tweeted “Boeing is building a brand new 747 Air Force One for future presidents, but costs are out of control, more than $4 billion. Cancel order!”, few seconds later Boeing stock wiped almost $1 billion from its market cap. We expect to see more of these tweets in 2017 and algorithms will probably require long time to put them into play, leaving retail traders with opportunities to profit from such market disruptions.

How Many Rate Hikes Will the Fed Deliver?
2016 kicked off with the expectation that four rate hikes would occur, but only one was delivered in December.

Although it was anticipated that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in their forward guidance for 2017, December’s meeting took many economists by surprise as they hinted for three rate hikes.

Since the financial crisis in 2008 the Fed has got many things wrong, whether it is forecasting rate hikes, economic growth and inflation levels, and now with a new administration to take office on January 20, this could make the Fed’s projections even more complicated.

Inflation has always been the main justification for low interest rates, but now, even before Trump takes office, a couple of inflation gauges are running above 2%. The Fed did not account for any fiscal stimulus measures in their most recent projections, suggesting that huge shifts in expectations may be seen.

The rising U.S. dollar which is currently at a 14-year high is another source of worry for the Fed, and tightening too fast will lead to even stronger dollar hitting U.S. exports and multinational companies’ profits.

If Trump’s measures were passed and economic growth picked up, the Fed will have few options, either tightening monetary policy more aggressively, or to fall behind the curve and let the fixed income market lead the way, but three rate hikes in 2017 is my base case. Either way the dollar is likely to remain strong as divergence in monetary policies will continue to widen.

Future of the UK and the EU?
Hard, Soft or Grey Brexit. This was the most argued topic in the past six months, and until now there’s no clear path on what direction the UK will move.

The pound ended 2016 17.5% lower against the US dollar since June 23 and there’s lot of speculation on how it will end in 2017. Of course, much will depend on the path Britain will choose.

Theresa May promised to trigger Article 50 by the end of March, but we still need to hear from the Supreme Court on whether the UK government needs parliamentary approval before starting the withdrawal from the EU.

The delay in triggering Article 50 will be positive in the short term for sterling, and negotiations may last well beyond 2017 on the terms of Brexit.

Meanwhile investors will be focusing on the economic developments and the direction of the Bank of England’s monetary policy, which will probably be the second major central bank to raise rates after the Fed.

Politics within the EU will rule investment decisions in 2017. Germany and France, the two largest economies will hold elections amid the rise of Eurosceptic candidates.

Italy is likely to see an early vote, after the resignation of Matteo Renzi last month, and the Five Star Movement has vowed that if it wins power it will hold a referendum on whether Italy should leave the Eurozone.

Although many polls indicate that far right candidates are still behind, nothing should be taken for granted after Trump won the U.S. presidency and Britain voted to leave the EU. Expect to see more pressure on the Euro and look out for parity against the dollar in the first six months. 

Will OPEC finally balance the oil market?
After hitting a low of $27 a barrel in February 2016, Brent prices more than doubled by the end of year and many investment banks still see further increase in prices for 2017.

OPEC’s decision to cut its output by 1.2 million barrels a day starting January, and non-OPEC producers to cut 558K barrels for the next six months to drain record global oil inventories led Brent prices to post its first yearly increase since 2012.

Whether more appreciation is to be seen in 2017 will depend on multiple factors, and the biggest one currently looming is compliance to production cuts. It’s in no one’s interest not to comply, but historic figures show that delivering on previous production cuts has been poor.

U.S. producers are another element to be focused on, how fast shale may come back is a key component to be considered in the price equation.

Although Trump has made the energy sector part of his economic growth plan, I believe it won’t have a lot of impact if prices don’t hold up. The dollar strength will likely impact the demand side, as continued strength will make oil more expensive in other currencies.

With all these unknows we will likely see prices moving in tight ranges in the first quarter until we get a clearer picture.

 


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E-Financial

West Africa Emerging as Crypto Adoption Epicentre- SEC Boss

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West Africa is fast emerging as a global epicentre for virtual asset adoption, propelled by a young, tech-savvy population and macroeconomic instability, according to Dr. Emomotimi Agama, director-general, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Nigeria.

West Africa Emerging as Crypto Adoption Epicentre- SEC Boss

Dr. Emomotimi Agama, DG, SEC

Speaking at the West Africa Compliance Summit organised by the Inter-Governmental Action Group against Money Laundering in West Africa (GIABA) in Praia, Cape Verde, Dr. Agama warned that while the region’s embrace of digital currencies is accelerating, the absence of coordinated regulation leaves it vulnerable to financial crimes and illicit capital flows.

“With over 60 percent of West Africa’s population under the age of 25 and mobile-first fintech platforms thriving, the region has become a global hotspot for virtual asset adoption,” he said. “But we must act decisively. Regulation is not optional, it is an imperative.”

The summit, themed “Adapting and Thriving in a Complex and Evolving Compliance Landscape,” brought together financial regulators, compliance professionals, and security experts to explore the challenges posed by the rapid rise of virtual assets and decentralised finance (DeFi).

Dr. Agama disclosed that crypto transactions in Nigeria alone surpassed $56 billion in 2024, with citizens increasingly turning to stablecoins such as USDT and USDC to hedge against volatile local currencies.

He highlighted the growing trend of “crypto-dollarisation,” noting that young professionals now demand salaries in stablecoins, while businesses are adopting platforms like Binance Pay for cross-border transactions.

“The naira’s depreciation, Ghana’s cedi weakness, and persistent forex shortages have fueled this shift,” he explained.

“Traditional remittance channels charge up to 10 percent in fees, while cryptocurrencies offer faster and cheaper alternatives. Over $20 billion in remittances flowed into West Africa last year through crypto channels.”

However, he also cautioned that the same innovations driving financial efficiency are increasingly being exploited by fraudsters and criminal actors.

He cited GIABA’s report of $2.1 billion in suspicious crypto-related transactions across West Africa in 2024 alone, including the use of privacy coins by terror financiers to evade detection.

“Unregulated exchanges, artificial market crashes, DeFi ‘rug pulls,’ and Ponzi schemes have wiped out billions in investor funds,” he said. “The recent collapse of the CBEX Ponzi platform is just one of many such incidents. Strong regulation and regional coordination are the only path forward.”

Dr. Agama pointed to Nigeria’s recent legislative progress, especially the enactment of the Investment and Securities Act 2025, which formally classifies virtual assets—including cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, utility tokens, and NFTs—as securities under Section 355(4) and Part I of the Second Schedule.

“Under the new law, all exchanges, wallets, and DeFi platforms must be licensed by the SEC,” he stated.

“We’ve also established a Fintech and Innovation Department to facilitate ongoing dialogue with industry stakeholders and adapt our regulations to emerging realities.”

He called on West African governments to harmonise regulatory frameworks and strengthen intelligence-sharing, proposing a Unified Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) Licensing System under the ECOWAS framework.

“A crypto trader banned in Nigeria should not find safe haven in Ghana,” he asserted.

“Financial crime knows no borders. Our collective future depends on our ability to secure this emerging financial frontier.”

 

 

 

 

 

 


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Banks Stops Instant Alerts for Cheques Pending Clearance

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Banks in the country have begun suspending instant transaction alerts for cheques drawn from other banks until such cheques are fully cleared.

Banks Stops Instant Alerts for Cheques Pending Clearance

This is in compliance with a recent directive from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

This new policy affects customers who receive cheques from other banks, signaling a major change in how cheque payments are confirmed.

According to the CBN directive, the move is intended to prevent confusion around the status of cheque payments and to curb premature release of goods and services before the actual receipt of funds.

In an email sent to its customers, Access Bank stated that moving forward, alerts for cheques deposited into accounts will only be sent after the cheque has been completely processed.

This is to notify you of the recent directive by the CBN which requires banks to send transaction alerts on payments of other bank cheque only upon cheque clearance.

This means that you would only receive alerts for other banks’ cheques paid into your account after the cheque has been fully processed, that is, after the funds are paid into your account or if the cheque is unpaid and and returned from the other bank.

As a result of this new directive, you will no longer receive alerts for cheques lodged into your account until the cheque is cleared or returned”, the bank stated.

Access Bank also advised customers to monitor their accounts through other available channels such as the AccessMore app, internet banking platforms, PrimusPlus, and the USSD service *901# to stay updated on the status of their cheque deposits.

To track your transactions and ensure you do not part with your goods and services prior to payment. Please use our other channels; Accessmore, Internet banking, PrimusPlus, *901#.

We remain committed to delivering seamless and secure banking services to you always”, it said.

The CBN’s directive is designed to protect both payees and payers by ensuring that goods or services are not exchanged before the actual payment has been confirmed.

Previously, customers often received immediate alerts once a cheque was lodged, leading to confusion when the cheque was later dishonoured.

A banking industry insider commented, “This change is critical in promoting financial discipline. It safeguards businesses from losses due to bounced cheques and helps maintain the integrity of cheque payments.”

While digital payment methods are on the rise in Nigeria, cheques still remain a significant payment instrument in various sectors, particularly in wholesale trade and business-to-business transactions.

The apex bank’s new guideline is expected to strengthen trust in cheque transactions by ensuring that payment confirmations are accurate and timely.

As the financial ecosystem evolves, this move is one among several measures aimed at enhancing the safety and reliability of banking transactions across Nigeria.

 

Credit: Daily Sun

 

 


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Sterling HoldCo Delivers Stellar H1 2025 Results; Capital Raise Strategy Gains Momentum

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Yemi Odubiyi
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Sterling Financial Holdings Company Plc (“Sterling HoldCo”) has reported a remarkable 157% year-on-year growth in profit-after-tax, hitting ₦41.78 billion for the half-year ended June 30, 2025. This jump from ₦16.26 billion in H1 2024 reflects the Group’s strategic excellence and operational resilience.

Yemi Odubiyi

Yemi Odubiyi

Profit after tax rose to ₦41.78 billion, while earnings per share climbed to 89 Kobo from 56 Kobo in the prior period. Gross earnings increased by 39.7%, reaching ₦212.61 billion. Interest income grew by 38.3% to ₦167.16 billion, and non-interest income surged 45% to ₦45.45 billion.

The Group’s cost-to-income ratio also improved significantly, declining from 75.7% to 64.5%, thanks to focused cost optimisation.

Sterling HoldCo’s total assets increased to ₦4.08 trillion as of June 2025, up 15.3% from ₦3.54 trillion in December 2024. Shareholders’ funds rose by 22.9% during the period, driven by strong retained earnings and successful recapitalisation. Asset quality also improved, with the non-performing loan ratio down to 5.1% from 5.4%.

Building on its financial strength, the Group completed a ₦100 billion private placement and rights issue, which enabled the recapitalisation of Alternative Bank and bolstered Sterling Bank’s capital base. A public offer to raise an additional ₦53 billion is set to launch in the coming weeks, forming the first phase of a US$400 million capital programme approved at the Group’s Annual General Meeting on June 30, 2025.

Group CEO Yemi Odubiyi attributed the half-year performance to strategic clarity and operational agility, noting that the results reflect resilience and value creation in a dynamic macroeconomic environment.

He reiterated the Group’s commitment to responsible growth, sustainable impact, and continued investment in Nigeria’s growth sectors, including renewable energy, healthcare, and community development.

Sterling HoldCo remains focused on leveraging its robust capital strategy to fuel long-term expansion, innovate across its financial services, and deepen its contribution to Nigeria’s economic progress.


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