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FXTM Analyses: Yellen Countdown Heightens Market Sensitivity

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Global stocks inched higher during trading on Thursday as the positive combination of renewed US rate hike expectations and resurgence in oil prices elevated global sentiment. European markets charged ahead causing most major equities to conclude positive following the recent polls displaying a lead in the “Bremain” camp.

With uncertainty diminishing ahead of the E.U referendum vote in June, the renewed risk appetite could propel global stocks higher. Although Wall Street displayed exhaustion during trading on Thursday as investor anxiety mounted ahead of Janet Yellen’s speech, prices could be poised for further inclines if hawks are let loose.

Asian markets have started Friday on a positive footing amid speculations of further stimulus in China and this optimism could ripple into Europe during trading today.

Focus on Janet Yellen
Investors may direct their focus towards Janet Yellen today with most seeking additional clarity on when, or if, the Federal Reserve may raise US rates again in Q2. Sentiment towards the US economy has improved this month with an impressive array of domestic data bolstering speculation that US rates could be increased in June or July.

With retail sales, inflation and new homes sales exceeding forecasts, the prerequisites for another US rate hike in Q2 could be fulfilled if US GDP and next week’s NFP exceed expectations. Yellen’s comments could act as a catalyst today for Dollar bulls to rampage if she chants the same hawkish tune as the other board governors.

Although the CME Group Fedwatch tool displays a 26% probability that a June hike could occur, concerns over slowing global growth and persistent China woes may also disrupt the Fed’s efforts to take action.

G7 Warn Of Brexit
The “Bremain” camp was offered additional inspiration during trading this week following the declaration at the G7 meeting warning that a Brexit could pose a serious threat to Global growth.

With major financial institutions and even the G7 highlighting the immeasurable damage a Brexit could cause to the world, expectations have mounted that the UK could actually remain in the E.U after the vote on the 23rd of June.

This Brexit saga is slowing coming to an end and the intensifying debates seem to be dominated by the “Bremain” camp that has been supported by many financial heavy weights.

Although sentiment was bearish towards the Sterling following the mixture of tepid domestic data and fading expectations over a UK rate hike, the optimism that “Bremain” could win may have created a foundation for bullish investors to pounce.

WTI Crude Shocks market
WTI Crude prices surged during trading on Thursday with prices smashing above $50 as an amalgamation of short-term declining production from oil export nations and a weakening Dollar encouraged bullish investors to install a round of buying.

This appreciation is remarkable and could be classified as a technical bounce simply because the fundamental oversupply woes continue to linger in the background.

With anxiety mounting ahead of the OPEC meeting in June, bulls have exploited the sharp periods of volatility with speculative boosts in oil prices causing the commodity to trade to mind blowing levels.

Although prices have traded to 7 month highs, investors should keep diligent as confidence remains very low that an oil production freeze deal will be struck at the meeting.

Gold Under Pressure
Gold stumbled towards nine week lows during trading this week following the painful mixture of Dollar resurgence and growing hopes of a US rate hike which severely dulled the metals allure. Price have sunk towards $1210 and may dip lower if Yellen releases the hawks this evening.

For an extended period Gold has been shackled by US rate hike expectations and with speculations heightened that the Fed could take action, bears could install a heavy round of selling momentum that drags prices below the strong $1210 support.

From a technical standpoint, prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has also crossed to the downside. Thursday bearish candle suggests that this bearish momentum could offer a foundation for sellers to send prices towards $1210 and potentially lower.

 


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E-Financial

CBN Licenses Unified Payments as Second Provider for PTSA Services for Nigeria

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has awarded the country’s second Payment Terminal Service Aggregator (PTSA) license to Unified Payments, Nigeria’s premier financial technology company, following a rigorous and transparent process,

CBN Licenses Unified Payments as Second Provider for PTSA Services for Nigeria

The move is targeted at enforcing existing requirement that all transactions from point-of-sale channels in Nigeria must go through a licensed Payment Terminal Service Aggregator (PTSA).

The CBN is enforcing the laws to clamp down on financial crimes and other market misconducts and it aligns with the CBN’s objectives to fully track all electronic transactions in Nigeria, given the propensity of using such transactions to fund insecurity, violent crimes, banditry, kidnapping as well as other vices.

According to one analyst, “By awarding a second PTSA license, the apex bank has proactively responded to industry operators who had expressed serious concerns about channelling all transactions through a single aggregator, the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System PLC (NIBBS), as has been the case for some years.

“With the new policy direction, payments service providers would henceforth route all transactions through either of the two licensed Companies.”

Other financial analysts and industry players have commended the Central Bank, affirming that “the move can be a massive step in the right direction. They also commended the open, transparent, and inclusive manner via which the selection process was managed, and the license awarded.

“The selection process, which lasted for months, began with an invitation for qualified organisations within the payment industry to submit an Expression of Interest document, alongside other requisite documentation and additional capital requirement of N1 billion.”

 

The new management of CBN decided not to give the license out without going through an open process – and for the first time in licensing a payment service provider – the apex bank went through a public bid process outlined in its publication of Friday, January 5, 2024, in different national newspapers. At the end of the process, Unified Payments emerged as the most preferred service provider.

Unified Payment Services Limited, also called Unified Payments or UP, is a shared service provider within Nigeria’s financial technology sector owned by a consortium of Nigerian banks. For over 26 years, the firm has provided payment technology to banks and other industry operators. The first and only non-bank entity that is a principal member and licensed acquirer of all of American Express, Mastercard, Visa, UnionPay and Payattitude. Unified Payments facilitates both local and international transactions.

Formerly known as ValuCard Nigeria Plc, Unified Payments led the way to introduce POS payments in Nigeria under its card scheme known as ValuCard which is the first payment card to be issued in Nigeria. The company later transformed into a scheme-neutral and option-neutral service provider enabling transactions under different schemes.

The company has continued to provide leading payment technologies and services, enabling different operators to leverage its capabilities and licenses, enabling prompt and seamless transactions.

Among the shareholders of Unified Payments are First Bank, Access Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, Zenith Bank and Fidelity Bank. Other shareholders are Citibank Nigeria Limited, Ecobank of Nigeria Plc, First City Monument Bank Plc, Keystone Bank Ltd, Polaris Bank Ltd, Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc, Sterling Bank Plc and Wema Bank Plc.


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CIBN says Recapitalization will Empower Banks to Lend more to Economy

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Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, CIBN, has expressed support for the ongoing banking recapitalization exercise saying it will empower banks to lend more to the economy.

CIBN President, Dr. Ken Opara stated this yesterday while speaking at the annual lecture of the institute in Lagos, with the theme “Improving Availability of Credit in the Nigerian Real Economy: The Critical Importance of Liquidity.”

Okpara noted that the volume of credit to the real sector activities namely agriculture, manufacturing and services is low compared to their critical role in driving economic growth.

Consequently, he called for more credit to the real sector, saying, “I   propose that we consider offering more credit to these key sectors and particularly the agriculture sector. It is for this reason that the Recapitalization exercise is a welcome development.

“The recently announced upward review of the Minimum Capital Requirements of Nigeria by the Central Bank of Nigeria would further empower banks to extend more credit to the economy’s productive sectors.”

To address these factors impeding credit to the real sector, Okpara suggested that, “The government needs to improve further the ease of doing business and infrastructural development, such as power, roads, rail networks, etc.

“Setting up industrial centres where these companies can co-habit and share common infrastructure. Harmonize and reduce the various taxes and levies, including locating them in a single hub.

“Banks need to be deliberate in de-risking these companies via Capacity building programmes, and Advisory services.

Specialised Financial Institutions can be created in addition to the Bank of Industry (BOI), especially credit guarantee agencies and risk-sharing institutions, to further facilitate the deepening of credit as practiced in countries such as China which significantly transformed its economy.


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New Report Reveals 20% of Nigerians Use Bitcoin to Transact Daily

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A new report claims that 20 per cent of Nigerians are using Bitcoin to carry out financial transactions every day.

According to the open-source blockchain website, Elastos, the research was compiled from online interviews conducted with 1,407 self-defined ‘tech savvy’ respondents in Brazil, Germany, Nigeria, South Korea, UAE, the UK, and the US.

The interviews were completed by a third party, a registered market research company and completed between 30 March and 04 April ’24.

The report further revealed that 67 per cent of Nigerians would have more trust in Bitcoin to put their life savings than banks and local governments.

The report reads; “The inaugural BIT Index (Bitcoin; Innovation & Trust) – compiled from over 1,400 self-defined ‘tech savvy’ respondents from 7 countries across the globe – sheds light on the actual perception and use of Bitcoin in people’s daily lives, irrespective of its current valuation. Elastos’ BIT Index is part of ongoing research to better track the ‘real world’ use of Bitcoin together with users’ motivations, expectations and barriers around the same.

“In particular, the data reveals the role being played by emerging markets in terms of understanding, usage and confidence around Bitcoin. Nigerian respondents’ levels of usage and trust compare starkly with those expressed from so-called ‘established’ markets such as Germany and the UK and Germany where daily usage levels are just 8% (for German respondents) and (9% for their UK counterparts).

“In terms of the trust – in addition to Nigeria – significant proportions of respondents from Brazil (35 per cent) and the UAE (32 per cent) would have more confidence in Bitcoin-based services to protect their life savings compared to those from markets such as the UK (20 per cent) and Germany (22 per cent).

“When it comes to ensuring the integrity of online transactions, emerging market respondents also revealed their relative confidence in Bitcoin, compared to alternatives. According to the data, 66 per cent of Nigerian respondents and 35 per cent from Brazil have more confidence in Bitcoin-based systems than alternatives such as banks, or national Governments, compared to figures of just 16 per cent (Germany) and 21 per cent (UK) who feel the same.


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