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FXTM Analyses: Yellen Countdown Heightens Market Sensitivity

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Global stocks inched higher during trading on Thursday as the positive combination of renewed US rate hike expectations and resurgence in oil prices elevated global sentiment. European markets charged ahead causing most major equities to conclude positive following the recent polls displaying a lead in the “Bremain” camp.

With uncertainty diminishing ahead of the E.U referendum vote in June, the renewed risk appetite could propel global stocks higher. Although Wall Street displayed exhaustion during trading on Thursday as investor anxiety mounted ahead of Janet Yellen’s speech, prices could be poised for further inclines if hawks are let loose.

Asian markets have started Friday on a positive footing amid speculations of further stimulus in China and this optimism could ripple into Europe during trading today.

Focus on Janet Yellen
Investors may direct their focus towards Janet Yellen today with most seeking additional clarity on when, or if, the Federal Reserve may raise US rates again in Q2. Sentiment towards the US economy has improved this month with an impressive array of domestic data bolstering speculation that US rates could be increased in June or July.

With retail sales, inflation and new homes sales exceeding forecasts, the prerequisites for another US rate hike in Q2 could be fulfilled if US GDP and next week’s NFP exceed expectations. Yellen’s comments could act as a catalyst today for Dollar bulls to rampage if she chants the same hawkish tune as the other board governors.

Although the CME Group Fedwatch tool displays a 26% probability that a June hike could occur, concerns over slowing global growth and persistent China woes may also disrupt the Fed’s efforts to take action.

G7 Warn Of Brexit
The “Bremain” camp was offered additional inspiration during trading this week following the declaration at the G7 meeting warning that a Brexit could pose a serious threat to Global growth.

With major financial institutions and even the G7 highlighting the immeasurable damage a Brexit could cause to the world, expectations have mounted that the UK could actually remain in the E.U after the vote on the 23rd of June.

This Brexit saga is slowing coming to an end and the intensifying debates seem to be dominated by the “Bremain” camp that has been supported by many financial heavy weights.

Although sentiment was bearish towards the Sterling following the mixture of tepid domestic data and fading expectations over a UK rate hike, the optimism that “Bremain” could win may have created a foundation for bullish investors to pounce.

WTI Crude Shocks market
WTI Crude prices surged during trading on Thursday with prices smashing above $50 as an amalgamation of short-term declining production from oil export nations and a weakening Dollar encouraged bullish investors to install a round of buying.

This appreciation is remarkable and could be classified as a technical bounce simply because the fundamental oversupply woes continue to linger in the background.

With anxiety mounting ahead of the OPEC meeting in June, bulls have exploited the sharp periods of volatility with speculative boosts in oil prices causing the commodity to trade to mind blowing levels.

Although prices have traded to 7 month highs, investors should keep diligent as confidence remains very low that an oil production freeze deal will be struck at the meeting.

Gold Under Pressure
Gold stumbled towards nine week lows during trading this week following the painful mixture of Dollar resurgence and growing hopes of a US rate hike which severely dulled the metals allure. Price have sunk towards $1210 and may dip lower if Yellen releases the hawks this evening.

For an extended period Gold has been shackled by US rate hike expectations and with speculations heightened that the Fed could take action, bears could install a heavy round of selling momentum that drags prices below the strong $1210 support.

From a technical standpoint, prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has also crossed to the downside. Thursday bearish candle suggests that this bearish momentum could offer a foundation for sellers to send prices towards $1210 and potentially lower.

 


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E-Financial

FG Engages Banks on RevOp, New Digital Platform for Revenue Generation

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Federal government has engaged the banking community in Abuja to deepen understanding of the Revenue Optimisation Assurance Platform (RevOp), a digital platform designed to improve revenue generation, reduce leakages, and enhance public sector accountability.

FG Engages Banks on RevOp, New Digital Platform for Revenue Generation

Mr Taiwo Oyedele, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the Economy, told RevOp sensitisation workshop, organised by the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) in Abuja, that RevOp is a centralised digital revenue collection and monitoring system designed to modernise Nigeria’s public finance operations.

Oyedele, who was represented by Mr Mohammed Danjuma, permanent secretary, Special Duties, explained that the platform provides a real-time, automated framework for all federal agencies to raise, collect, and report revenues, replacing fragmented manual processes that have plagued revenue collection for decades.

He reiterated the government’s commitment to improving revenue generation, enhancing transparency, strengthening accountability, and leveraging technology to drive efficiency across public financial management processes.

“RevOp serves as a critical tool in the government’s drive to improve revenue administration, reduce leakages, and enhance public sector accountability,” he said.

According to him, a lot had been achieved since the inception and implementation of the platform and that the successes were not without challenges.

He identified one of the challenges as limited awareness among some banking channels and frontline officers.

The minister explained that some banking channels are not familiar with RevOp, its purpose, or the procedural requirements to support transaction processes through the platform.

“These challenges, though operational in nature, have significant impacts on the overall customer experience and effectiveness of the initiative. This is precisely why we are here today,” he said.

The minister said that the success of RevOp would not be achieved by government alone, adding that it required strong collaboration among all stakeholders, particularly banking institutions, which serve as critical collection and service channels.

He explained that the banking institutions’ role extends beyond merely collecting or processing payments to ensuring that government revenue collection processes are efficient and user-friendly.

“Today’s sensitisation session has, therefore, been organised to deepen understanding of the platform, clarify operational processes, address concerns, and establish stronger communication channels between the project team and participating financial institutions.

“We expect that the knowledge shared here will cascade throughout your respective organisations, especially to branch operations, customer service personnel, and tellers who interact directly with customers on a daily basis,” he said.

Oyedele said the ministry remained committed to working closely with all stakeholders to address identified challenges and continuously improve the platform.

In his speech, Dr. Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, accountant general of the Federation, said that the revenue optimisation portal had been adopted as a strategic platform for improving revenue collection, reconciliation, monitoring, and reporting.

Ogunjimi, represented by Mr Felix Ogundairo, his chief of staff, explained that the platform was designed to provide greater visibility into government revenue, eliminate leakages, improve compliance, and support informed decision-making through real-time data and analytics.

“This engagement, therefore, provides an opportunity for us to discuss implementation challenges, align expectations, clarify operational issues, and strengthen the partnership necessary for the success of the application,” he said.

In his remarks, Mr. Idris Dosunmu, RevOp Product Manager, explained that the platform unifies billing, payment and settlement under one platform and that every transaction passes through secure connections, ensuring complete transparency from bill creation to treasury receipt.

“This will ensure that every penny due to the federal government goes into the coffers of the government,” Dosunmu said.


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FG Moves to End Double Taxation

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Federal government has started new efforts to improve tax collection in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and stop the problem of multiple taxation.

FG Moves to End Double Taxation

Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the economy, disclosed this after a meeting with Nyesom Wike, minister, FCT, on Sunday.

According to Oyedele, the meeting focused on strengthening cooperation between the Ministry of Finance and the FCT Administration to support development projects in Abuja.

A major part of the discussion was how to improve tax administration in the territory.

He explained that the proposed tax harmonisation would create a more coordinated tax system, reduce the burden of multiple taxes on residents and businesses, and improve government revenue collection.

Oyedele said the plan is in line with the new tax reform law and is expected to help accelerate development across the FCT.

“The two ministers also reviewed plans to harmonise tax administration within the FCT,” he said.

He added that the initiative would eliminate multiple taxation while ensuring that government revenue is collected more efficiently.

The meeting also examined ways to strengthen collaboration on infrastructure projects across Abuja.

According to Oyedele, discussions centred on supporting the FCT’s ongoing infrastructure renewal programme.

He commended Wike’s approach to development, noting that the minister has focused on completing long-abandoned projects rather than starting new ones.

Oyedele said this strategy is helping to unlock economic and social benefits for residents by bringing stalled public projects back into use.

The proposed tax harmonisation is expected to make tax administration easier for individuals and businesses operating in the FCT while aligning Abuja’s revenue system with the provisions of the new tax reform law.

 


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Standard Bank Targets $15.4b SME Growth in Nigeria, Others with Trade Expansion Drive

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Standard Bank Group has identified Nigeria and four other markets as strategic growth hubs as it seeks to tap into $15.4 billion revenue opportunity driven by expanding small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and rising intra-African trade.

The bank disclosed the plan through Bill Blackie, the Chief Executive Officer of its Business and Commercial Banking (Standard Bank Group) division, who outlined the lender’s growth strategy in an interview with Bloomberg.

Under the strategy, Standard Bank will deepen its presence in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania while consolidating its dominance in South Africa. The five markets account for about 85 per cent of the estimated revenue opportunity available to the group’s BCB operations.

The expansion forms part of the lender’s broader ambition to accelerate earnings growth through 2028, leveraging increasing demand for banking services among businesses across the continent.

According to Blackie, the BCB division has recorded robust growth over the past five years, supported by rising business activity and greater demand for financial services across Africa.

He said the division doubled both headline earnings and return on capital between 2020 and 2025, with return on capital increasing from 19 per cent to 38 per cent during the period.

Earnings from operations across the continent also expanded at an average annual rate of 30 per cent.

Building on this performance, the bank is targeting compound annual growth of between eight and nine per cent through 2028, although Blackie expressed confidence that growth could reach double-digit levels as the strategy gains traction.

A key pillar of Standard Bank’s growth strategy is expanding support for SMEs and mid-sized businesses, which account for most enterprises across Africa.

The bank is particularly positioning itself to benefit from opportunities created by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is expected to accelerate economic integration and cross-border commerce across the continent.

According to the International Trade Centre, nearly half of Africa’s small businesses export to other African countries, compared with only 14 per cent of larger firms, underscoring the critical role of SMEs in driving regional commerce.

The lender is also leveraging its extensive African footprint and strategic partnership with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) to attract businesses seeking access to international markets, particularly China.


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