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FXTM Analysis: Central Bank Policy Meetings in Focus

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A strong feeling of anxiety engulfed the financial markets on Wednesday as investors awaited the heavily anticipated Fed and BoJ central bank policy meeting decisions which have the ability to create explosive levels of volatility.

Asian markets rallied this morning with the Nikkei lurching +1.91% higher as of writing after the Bank of Japan overhauled its policy framework.

European markets were flat on Tuesday and this could rollover into the new trading day if market participants remain on the side-line ahead of the Fed meeting.

Although Wall Street painted a similar static picture to Europe, some direction could be achieved if the Fed takes action or provides further clarity on US rate hike timings.

The praised stock market rally which repeatedly seized the limelight this year continues to display signs of exhaustion as the mixture of uncertainty and concerns over the global economy sour risk appetite.

Depressed oil prices have heavily weighed on sentiment while the uncertainty ahead of the US elections could encourage investors to scatter away from riskier assets. With the ingredients of a bear market ripening by the day, stocks could be poised for a steep decline in the future if provided the correct catalyst.

Will the Fed take action?
The Dollar has been on a chaotic rollercoaster ride this month with prices recently displaying an incredible rebound as optimism grows over the Federal Reserve potentially raising US interest rates before the end of 2016.

Although expectations that the central bank may take action in September has been thoroughly discounted following the uncertainty and soft domestic data, the glimmer of hope for December being a live meeting could keep the Dollar buoyed.

Attention may be directed towards the FOMC meeting where Yellen could potentially tilt towards the hawks which could leave the door wide open for the Fed to break the trend of central bank caution before year end.

Bank of Japan keeps rates unchanged
Yen bears were unleashed on Wednesday following the Bank of Japans decision in setting a long term interest target in an overhaul of its monetary stimulus programme.

The central bank left negative rates unchanged at 0.1% but discarded its base money target which was replaced with a yield curve control.

Although the markets warmly welcomed this unexpected change in policy framework, questions may be asked on the sustainability of both the positivity and Yen selloff.

Japan remains entangled in a fierce battle with slowing economic growth while static inflation has left the Bank of Japan under noticeable pressure.

If this policy overhaul fails to improve Japan’s situation in the medium term, then the Yen could regain ground as optimism fades over the central bank’s ability to revive growth.

Sterling gripped by lingering Brexit jitters
Sterling was left vulnerable to heavy losses on Tuesday with the GBPUSD sinking towards 1.294 after news highlighting the UK’s uncertain future relationship with the EU enticed sellers to attack.

Sentiment remains bearish towards the Sterling with further declines expected as the post Brexit jitters haunt investor attraction towards the currency.

It seems like investors are slowly digesting the impacts of Brexit to the UK economy with fears heightening over the potential long-term economic damages.

Although the Bank of England decided to leave UK interest rates unchanged in September’s policy meeting, the bias towards further rate cuts in the future could keep the Sterling pressured.

From a technical standpoint, the GBPUSD is bearish on the daily timeframe as prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the downside. Previous support around 1.3000 could transform into a dynamic resistance which encourages a further decline towards 1.2900.

Commodity spotlight – WTI Oil
WTI Oil rebounded from six week lows on Tuesday with prices lurching towards $44.50 after comments from OPEC sparked discussions that a production freeze deal could last longer than anticipated.

Regardless of the short term gains, Oil remains heavily pressured and could be destined for steeper declines as the oversupply concerns haunt investor attraction.

Oils main focus will be the pending informal OPEC meeting which if concludes unsuccessfully could leave prices exposed to steep losses. From a technical standpoint, bears need to break back down below $44 to trigger a steeper decline towards $41.


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E-Financial

Nigerians Trust Bitcoin for Financial Security than Sanks – Report

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Nigerians have more trust in Bitcoin-based systems than in traditional alternatives such as banks and government, a new report by Elastos, an open-source blockchain website, has stated.

Nigerians Trust Bitcoin for Financial Security than Sanks – Report

According to its inaugural BIT Index (Bitcoin; Innovation & Trust), emerging markets are driving the adoption of Bitcoin, with Nigeria and the UAE leading the charge.

The report revealed that 66 per cent of Nigerian respondents and 35 per cent from Brazil had more confidence in Bitcoin-based systems than alternatives like banks or national governments, compared to just 16 per cent in Germany and 21 per cent in the UK.

The survey also revealed that 20 per cent of Nigerian consumers use Bitcoin to conduct transactions at least once a day, while 67 per cent would have more trust in Bitcoin to protect their life savings than traditional services like banks, local governments, and cash.

According to the platform, the research was compiled from online interviews conducted with 1,407 self-defined ‘tech savvy’ respondents in Brazil, Germany, Nigeria, South Korea, the UAE, the UK, and the US.

It stated that the interviews were completed by a third party, a registered market research company, between March 30 and April 4, 2024.

“When it comes to ensuring the integrity of online transactions, emerging market respondents also revealed their relative confidence in Bitcoin compared to alternatives,” it indicated.

According to the report, 66 per cent of Nigerian respondents and 35 per cent of Brazil have more confidence in Bitcoin-based systems than alternatives, such as banks or national governments, compared to figures of just 16 per cent (Germany) and 21 per cent (UK) who feel the same.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Hargreaves,  Elastos’ global head, Business Development & ESG, described the BIT Index’s inaugural findings as indicative of the role the ‘global south’ was playing in the adoption of decentralised currencies such as Bitcoin.

“The BIT Index offers a fascinating and sobering insight into the industry. The fact that over two-thirds of Nigerian consumers and a third of their counterparts from the UAE and Brazil would feel more confident entrusting their life savings to Bitcoin rather than traditional financial instruments speaks volumes about the protagonism these regions are already playing.

“In many instances, the driving factor is the absence of viable, accessible alternatives to, for instance, conduct cross-border transactions or mitigate the impact of inflation,” he said.

According to Chainalysis, a cryptocurrency research firm, Nigeria’s crypto transaction volume grew year-over-year to $56.7bn in 2023.

It stated that the country’s crypto economy continued to grow despite market turmoil in the space.

On the contrary, the government has been taking strong measures to restrict and clamp down on cryptocurrency exchanges and platforms operating in the country.

 

 


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CBN Licenses Unified Payments as Second Provider for PTSA Services for Nigeria

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has awarded the country’s second Payment Terminal Service Aggregator (PTSA) license to Unified Payments, Nigeria’s premier financial technology company, following a rigorous and transparent process,

CBN Licenses Unified Payments as Second Provider for PTSA Services for Nigeria

The move is targeted at enforcing existing requirement that all transactions from point-of-sale channels in Nigeria must go through a licensed Payment Terminal Service Aggregator (PTSA).

The CBN is enforcing the laws to clamp down on financial crimes and other market misconducts and it aligns with the CBN’s objectives to fully track all electronic transactions in Nigeria, given the propensity of using such transactions to fund insecurity, violent crimes, banditry, kidnapping as well as other vices.

According to one analyst, “By awarding a second PTSA license, the apex bank has proactively responded to industry operators who had expressed serious concerns about channelling all transactions through a single aggregator, the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System PLC (NIBBS), as has been the case for some years.

“With the new policy direction, payments service providers would henceforth route all transactions through either of the two licensed Companies.”

Other financial analysts and industry players have commended the Central Bank, affirming that “the move can be a massive step in the right direction. They also commended the open, transparent, and inclusive manner via which the selection process was managed, and the license awarded.

“The selection process, which lasted for months, began with an invitation for qualified organisations within the payment industry to submit an Expression of Interest document, alongside other requisite documentation and additional capital requirement of N1 billion.”

 

The new management of CBN decided not to give the license out without going through an open process – and for the first time in licensing a payment service provider – the apex bank went through a public bid process outlined in its publication of Friday, January 5, 2024, in different national newspapers. At the end of the process, Unified Payments emerged as the most preferred service provider.

Unified Payment Services Limited, also called Unified Payments or UP, is a shared service provider within Nigeria’s financial technology sector owned by a consortium of Nigerian banks. For over 26 years, the firm has provided payment technology to banks and other industry operators. The first and only non-bank entity that is a principal member and licensed acquirer of all of American Express, Mastercard, Visa, UnionPay and Payattitude. Unified Payments facilitates both local and international transactions.

Formerly known as ValuCard Nigeria Plc, Unified Payments led the way to introduce POS payments in Nigeria under its card scheme known as ValuCard which is the first payment card to be issued in Nigeria. The company later transformed into a scheme-neutral and option-neutral service provider enabling transactions under different schemes.

The company has continued to provide leading payment technologies and services, enabling different operators to leverage its capabilities and licenses, enabling prompt and seamless transactions.

Among the shareholders of Unified Payments are First Bank, Access Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, Zenith Bank and Fidelity Bank. Other shareholders are Citibank Nigeria Limited, Ecobank of Nigeria Plc, First City Monument Bank Plc, Keystone Bank Ltd, Polaris Bank Ltd, Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc, Sterling Bank Plc and Wema Bank Plc.


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CIBN says Recapitalization will Empower Banks to Lend more to Economy

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Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, CIBN, has expressed support for the ongoing banking recapitalization exercise saying it will empower banks to lend more to the economy.

CIBN President, Dr. Ken Opara stated this yesterday while speaking at the annual lecture of the institute in Lagos, with the theme “Improving Availability of Credit in the Nigerian Real Economy: The Critical Importance of Liquidity.”

Okpara noted that the volume of credit to the real sector activities namely agriculture, manufacturing and services is low compared to their critical role in driving economic growth.

Consequently, he called for more credit to the real sector, saying, “I   propose that we consider offering more credit to these key sectors and particularly the agriculture sector. It is for this reason that the Recapitalization exercise is a welcome development.

“The recently announced upward review of the Minimum Capital Requirements of Nigeria by the Central Bank of Nigeria would further empower banks to extend more credit to the economy’s productive sectors.”

To address these factors impeding credit to the real sector, Okpara suggested that, “The government needs to improve further the ease of doing business and infrastructural development, such as power, roads, rail networks, etc.

“Setting up industrial centres where these companies can co-habit and share common infrastructure. Harmonize and reduce the various taxes and levies, including locating them in a single hub.

“Banks need to be deliberate in de-risking these companies via Capacity building programmes, and Advisory services.

Specialised Financial Institutions can be created in addition to the Bank of Industry (BOI), especially credit guarantee agencies and risk-sharing institutions, to further facilitate the deepening of credit as practiced in countries such as China which significantly transformed its economy.


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