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FXTM Analysis: Dollar Sensitivity Seizes Centre Stage

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
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The Dollar displayed extreme signs of sensitivity on Tuesday with prices left vulnerable to heavy losses as expectations fluctuated over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates in 2016. Conflicting data such as the strong NFP and poor retails sales have placed the Dollar in a fierce tug of war with investor anxiety mounting ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes.

Although US CPI for July remained unchanged at 0%, hawkish comments from the New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley on the possibility of a September hike successfully elevated the Dollar higher.

With Dollar sensitivity becoming a dominant theme, further explosive movements could be expected ahead of September’s FOMC meeting.

Investors may direct their attention towards the FOMC meeting minutes which could provide some direction on when the Fed may break the trend of central bank caution by raising US rates.

In July financial markets were offered a breath of fresh air from the hawkish statement which amplified expectations over the Fed taking action.

The central bank acknowledged the stabilisation of US labour while domestic economic activity expanded at a moderate pace. If Wednesday’s minutes illustrate a similar stance, then Dollar bulls could be provided a lifeline to install a heavy round of buying.

From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index is turning bearish on the daily timeframe as there have been lower lows and lower highs. Prices are trading below both the 20 and 50 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the downside. Previous support around 95.50 could transform into a resistance which could encourage a steep decline back towards 94.00.

Sterling on standby ahead of Employment data
Sterling bulls were installed with inspiration during trading on Tuesday following July’s positive CPI of 0.6% which reduced some concerns over the health of the UK economy.

Although the CPI figure was the highest seen since November 2014, the eye-catcher was the shocking 6.5% rise in imports which was the most seen since 2011.

Sterling vulnerability is becoming a recurrent theme with concerns potentially elevating in the coming months as the weaker currency feeds into higher import prices.

Investors may direct their attention towards the UK employment report which could offer some clarity on how the Brexit may have impacted UK employment. If the release displays a decline in employment and earnings post Brexit then the Sterling could be left vulnerable to further losses. Despite the rise in July’s CPI, sentiment still remains somewhat bearish towards the Sterling with further declines expected as speculations mount over the BoE cutting UK rates to near zero in 2016. With uncertainty still haunting investor attraction towards the pound, most upside gains could be capped.

The Sterling/Dollar surged ferociously towards 1.3050 on Tuesday and this has nothing to do with an improved sentiment towards the Sterling but Dollar weakness.

This relief rally could entice bears to attack the pair with the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and BoE sending the currency lower. From a technical standpoint, previous support at 1.3100 could act as a dynamic resistance that encourages sellers to send the GBPUSD lower towards 1.2900.

WTI breaks above $46
WTI Crude has surged sharply on with prices cutting above $46 as optimism grew over a potential production freeze deal in September’s unofficial OPEC meeting.

Oil is becoming highly sensitive to production freeze expectations with talks of freezes producing sharp speculative boosts in oil prices.

Although the current upside gains could be commended, the fundamentals of oversupply still linger in the background and this questions the sustainability of the current rally.

Concerns over the excessive oversupply remain elevated while fears of a decline in demand continue to weigh on oil prices.

Crude oil inventories data will be released on Wednesday and if such displays a further build up, then WTI could be open to steep losses.

As long as the fundamentals of over oversupply and soft demand are presents, bears have a stable foundation to install repeated round of selling.

Gold searches for direction
Gold displayed erratic characteristics on Tuesday with prices violently vibrating between losses and gains as expectations continued to swing over the Fed raising US interest rates in 2016. The precious metal lurched to the highs $1357.90 on Tuesday before declining back lower following hawkish comments from New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley on the possibility of a September hike. Gold remains trapped in a fierce tug of war and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes could provide the metal some direction. Risk aversion has kept the metal buoyed but US rate hike expectations continue to pressure prices lower. From a technical standpoint, bulls need to keep above $1315 to maintain the daily bullish uptrend.

 

 

 


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E-Financial

Ecobank Nigeria to Fully Repay $300m Eurobond Ahead of Schedule

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Ecobank Nigeria has moved to retire the remaining part of its $300 million Eurobond before maturity. The bank has launched a tender offer for holders of its 7.125% senior notes due February 2026.

The bank announced the offer on Friday, 28 November 2025, inviting investors to tender their holdings ahead of schedule. Of the original $300 million issuance, $150 million remains outstanding.

Under the terms, investors whose notes are accepted for repurchase will receive $1,000 for every $1,000 in principal, plus accrued and unpaid interest up to, but not including, the settlement date. The transaction is expected to be completed on or before 31 December 2025.

Ecobank said the early repayment move is part of a broader strategy to optimise its balance sheet and strengthen capital planning flexibility. The lender added that the tender offer gives investors an opportunity to exit the instrument ahead of the original February 2026 maturity.

In a statement, the bank said the initiative underscores its “commitment to transparent engagement with funding partners and investors,” stressing that the offer supports its long-term goal of maintaining a well-structured debt profile.

Participation in the programme is voluntary, and investors will make decisions based on their individual considerations, the bank added.

Ecobank emphasised that the announcement is for information only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities. Eligible noteholders are expected to rely on the formal tender documents when deciding whether to take part.

 


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Reps Give Banks Four-Day Ultimatum on Tax Deductions, Charges

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The House of Representatives Ad hoc Committee investigating deductions of taxes and sundry charges from the earnings of civil and public servants has given commercial banks a four-day deadline to submit all requested documents.

Reps Give Banks Four-Day Ultimatum on Tax Deductions, Charges

House of Rep

The committee, chaired by Hon. Kelechi Nwogwu, issued the ultimatum at the commencement of its investigation, following a motion earlier moved by the House Chief Whip, Hon. Usman Bello Kumo, on alleged deductions from civil servants’ salaries.

Nwogwu insisted that Chief Executive Officers of affected financial institutions must appear in person before the panel, rejecting representatives sent by GT Bank, Zenith Bank, Access Bank and other banks.

He explained that the panel was mandated to ensure that all deductions of charges by banks on customers’ accounts were fair and properly applied.

The committee disclosed that invitations had also been extended to the Ministry of Finance, the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, and all commercial banks operating in Nigeria.

“You cannot appear here without an identity. We are here on the mandate of the people who elected us into parliament. We have resolved to meet next week on Wednesday.

“You must submit all requested documents by Monday, May 1,” Nwogwu said.

He warned that any bank that failed to comply with the deadline would face sanctions, adding that the committee would put the CEOs on oath during the next sitting.

The investigation continues next week.


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SEC Urges IST to Freeze all CBEX Bank Accounts in Nigeria

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has asked the Investments and Securities Tribunal (IST) to order the freezing of all bank accounts belonging to Crypto Bridge Exchange (CBEX) and other defendants held in commercial banks and financial institutions across Nigeria.

The request was made in Suit No. IST/OA/02/2025: Securities and Exchange Commission & Anor v. Crypto Bridge Exchange (CBEX) & 25 Others, the first case before the 6th Tribunal presided over by Hon. Aminu Jinaidu, Chairman of the IST.

SEC also urged the Tribunal to seize houses and other assets allegedly acquired by the defendants using proceeds obtained from the public through the CBEX investment scheme, which it said falsely operated as a digital assets platform and capital-market operator.

The Commission argued that CBEX, which is not registered with SEC, unlawfully promised investors a 100 percent return on investment within 30 days—conduct it said is in violation of Section 3(b) of the Investments and Securities Act, 2025.

SEC further disclosed that the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong had, on April 23, 2024, issued an advisory warning against CBEX, describing it as a suspicious virtual-asset entity. According to the advisory, CBEX adopted a name resembling that of a Chinese property-rights trading organisation to give investors false assurance, despite having no connection with the legitimate entity.

At Tuesday’s sitting, the Tribunal ordered that hearing notices be served on the defendants through national newspapers, as CBEX failed to appear and was not represented in court.

CBEX launched in Nigeria in July 2024, operating through a website and mobile app. It claimed to use advanced artificial intelligence to generate unusually high profits from cryptocurrency trading, promising returns of up to 100 percent within a 40- to 45-day lock-in period. The scheme later collapsed and was exposed as a Ponzi operation that reportedly defrauded investors of more than N1.3 trillion (about $800 million).

Hon. Jinaidu also presided over several other matters on the tribunal’s docket, including Benue Investments Property Co. Ltd & Anor v. Securities and Exchange Commission & 6 Others; Maven Asset Management Ltd v. Securities and Exchange Commission; John Makinde Onade & Anor v. First Registrars & Investors Services Ltd & Anor; and Securities and Exchange Commission & Anor v. Tourist Company of Nigeria PLC & 6 Ors. All the cases were adjourned to January 27, 2026.

 


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