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FXTM Analysis: Dollar Sensitivity Seizes Centre Stage

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
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The Dollar displayed extreme signs of sensitivity on Tuesday with prices left vulnerable to heavy losses as expectations fluctuated over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates in 2016. Conflicting data such as the strong NFP and poor retails sales have placed the Dollar in a fierce tug of war with investor anxiety mounting ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes.

Although US CPI for July remained unchanged at 0%, hawkish comments from the New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley on the possibility of a September hike successfully elevated the Dollar higher.

With Dollar sensitivity becoming a dominant theme, further explosive movements could be expected ahead of September’s FOMC meeting.

Investors may direct their attention towards the FOMC meeting minutes which could provide some direction on when the Fed may break the trend of central bank caution by raising US rates.

In July financial markets were offered a breath of fresh air from the hawkish statement which amplified expectations over the Fed taking action.

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The central bank acknowledged the stabilisation of US labour while domestic economic activity expanded at a moderate pace. If Wednesday’s minutes illustrate a similar stance, then Dollar bulls could be provided a lifeline to install a heavy round of buying.

From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index is turning bearish on the daily timeframe as there have been lower lows and lower highs. Prices are trading below both the 20 and 50 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the downside. Previous support around 95.50 could transform into a resistance which could encourage a steep decline back towards 94.00.

Sterling on standby ahead of Employment data
Sterling bulls were installed with inspiration during trading on Tuesday following July’s positive CPI of 0.6% which reduced some concerns over the health of the UK economy.

Although the CPI figure was the highest seen since November 2014, the eye-catcher was the shocking 6.5% rise in imports which was the most seen since 2011.

Sterling vulnerability is becoming a recurrent theme with concerns potentially elevating in the coming months as the weaker currency feeds into higher import prices.

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Investors may direct their attention towards the UK employment report which could offer some clarity on how the Brexit may have impacted UK employment. If the release displays a decline in employment and earnings post Brexit then the Sterling could be left vulnerable to further losses. Despite the rise in July’s CPI, sentiment still remains somewhat bearish towards the Sterling with further declines expected as speculations mount over the BoE cutting UK rates to near zero in 2016. With uncertainty still haunting investor attraction towards the pound, most upside gains could be capped.

The Sterling/Dollar surged ferociously towards 1.3050 on Tuesday and this has nothing to do with an improved sentiment towards the Sterling but Dollar weakness.

This relief rally could entice bears to attack the pair with the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and BoE sending the currency lower. From a technical standpoint, previous support at 1.3100 could act as a dynamic resistance that encourages sellers to send the GBPUSD lower towards 1.2900.

WTI breaks above $46
WTI Crude has surged sharply on with prices cutting above $46 as optimism grew over a potential production freeze deal in September’s unofficial OPEC meeting.

Oil is becoming highly sensitive to production freeze expectations with talks of freezes producing sharp speculative boosts in oil prices.

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Although the current upside gains could be commended, the fundamentals of oversupply still linger in the background and this questions the sustainability of the current rally.

Concerns over the excessive oversupply remain elevated while fears of a decline in demand continue to weigh on oil prices.

Crude oil inventories data will be released on Wednesday and if such displays a further build up, then WTI could be open to steep losses.

As long as the fundamentals of over oversupply and soft demand are presents, bears have a stable foundation to install repeated round of selling.

Gold searches for direction
Gold displayed erratic characteristics on Tuesday with prices violently vibrating between losses and gains as expectations continued to swing over the Fed raising US interest rates in 2016. The precious metal lurched to the highs $1357.90 on Tuesday before declining back lower following hawkish comments from New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley on the possibility of a September hike. Gold remains trapped in a fierce tug of war and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes could provide the metal some direction. Risk aversion has kept the metal buoyed but US rate hike expectations continue to pressure prices lower. From a technical standpoint, bulls need to keep above $1315 to maintain the daily bullish uptrend.

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E-Financial

Senate Passes Landmark Insurance Reform Bill, Replaces 1997 NAICOM Act

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The Senate yesterday recorded two major milestones in Nigeria’s financial sector, passing a landmark Insurance Regulatory Commission Bill to replace the nearly three-decade-old National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) Act of 1997.

Also in a separate development, the Committee on Banking Insurance and other Financial Institutions, overwhelmingly cleared former Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and current Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr. Lamido Yuguda, for appointment as Chairman of the Board of the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON).

The insurance reform legislation, described by lawmakers as one of the most comprehensive overhauls of Nigeria’s insurance regulatory framework in decades, seeks to modernise regulation, strengthen consumer protection, enhance financial stability and align the nation’s insurance industry with global best practices.

The bill, passed during plenary presided over by the President of the Senate, Senator Godswill Akpabio, followed the adoption of the report of the Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions chaired by Senator Mukhail Adetokunbo Abiru (APC, Lagos East).

The legislation repeals the National Insurance Commission Act, 1997 and establishes a new Insurance Regulatory Commission with broader supervisory and enforcement powers designed to respond more effectively to the changing dynamics of the insurance industry.

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Presenting the committee’s report, Abiru told senators that the existing legal framework had become grossly inadequate for regulating a rapidly evolving insurance sector.

He said: “The current National Insurance Commission Act 1997 is outdated and does not adequately address the emerging economic growth, needs and development of the insurance business.”

According to him, although NAICOM had made significant contributions to regulating insurance companies, brokers and loss adjusters while protecting policyholders and enforcing industry standards, its enabling law had failed to keep pace with international developments.

Abiru explained: “Despite its significant contributions, the enabling law has become obsolete, failing to align with current realities and global best practices, and unable to keep pace with the evolving nature of the insurance industry, exposing numerous gaps in the law, necessitating urgent amendments.”

He disclosed that the proposed law guarantees the independence of the Insurance Regulatory Commission while substantially expanding its powers to supervise operators and safeguard the stability of the financial system.

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According to him, the commission would have authority to issue regulations, standards, guidelines and directives, collaborate with domestic and international regulatory institutions, exchange supervisory information and intervene promptly in troubled insurance companies before their problems escalate.

He stressed that the strengthened intervention powers would remove bureaucratic bottlenecks that had previously delayed regulatory actions against distressed insurance firms.

Abiru said the legislation also introduces stricter corporate governance requirements by prescribing higher qualifications for members of the commission’s governing board.

He explained that only individuals with proven competence in insurance, finance, law, risk management and corporate governance would qualify for appointment, thereby ensuring more professional oversight of the industry.

The committee chairman further revealed that the bill significantly strengthens enforcement mechanisms by imposing stiffer sanctions on erring operators.

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According to him, the law provides for heavier financial penalties, suspension of operating licences, additional liabilities for defaulting operators and disqualification of persons responsible for the collapse or regulatory failure of insurance institutions from occupying positions within the industry.

Abiru also noted that the legislation broadens the commission’s mandate beyond regulation to include the effective administration, supervision, control, integrity and overall development of insurance business in Nigeria.

He said the proposed change of name from the National Insurance Commission to the Insurance Regulatory Commission would eliminate longstanding confusion about the agency’s role and better reflect its statutory responsibility as the country’s insurance regulator.

Giving insight into the legislative process, Abiru disclosed that the committee subjected the bill to rigorous scrutiny, including a public hearing held on November 12, 2025.

He said more than 50 memoranda and several oral submissions were received from critical stakeholders, including the Federal Ministry of Finance, CBN, Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation, SEC, Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria, Nigerian Insurers Association, Nigerian Council of Registered Insurance Brokers and the Chartered Insurance Institute of Nigeria. Africans& Diaspora

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According to him, the overwhelming consensus among stakeholders was that urgent reforms had become inevitable.

Abiru said: “The inputs made on the proposed bill will go a long way in providing a comprehensive legal framework for the regulation and supervision of all manner of insurance businesses in Nigeria to ensure that the industry is able to successfully compete on a global level and improve international competitiveness of Nigeria’s insurance industry.”

After considering the bill clause-by-clause in the Committee of the Whole, the Senate unanimously passed it for third reading.

Akpabio commended Abiru and members of the committee for championing what he described as a far-reaching reform capable of transforming Nigeria’s insurance industry.

He assured the committee that the National Assembly would continue to enact laws that would strengthen the country’s financial services sector, improve transparency and promote international competitiveness.

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The bill will now proceed to the House of Representatives for concurrence before being transmitted to President Bola Tinubu for presidential assent.

After the plenary on Tuesday, the Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions overwhelmingly cleared Yuguda as Chairman of the Board of AMCON after granting him the rare privilege of a “take a bow and go” screening.

The committee dispensed with the conventional screening process on the grounds that Yuguda had previously appeared before the Senate for confirmation into several strategic public offices and had consistently demonstrated exceptional competence.

Presenting the nomination, the Special Adviser to the President on National Assembly Matters (Senate), Senator Basheer Lado, reminded lawmakers that Yuguda had undergone rigorous screening in the past.

He explained that the latest appearance was simply to comply with the provisions of Section 10(1)(a) of the AMCON Establishment Act, 2019, as amended. Abiru described Yuguda as one of the most trusted public officials appointed by President Tinubu.

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He told committee members: “As all of us may recall, the appointee, Mr. Lamido Yuguda, whose résumé is before every member, has appeared before this committee on previous occasions.”

He added: “More recently, he also appeared before us for screening as Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria.”

In a light-hearted remark that drew laughter from members, Abiru observed: “If you ask me, I think he is probably the luckiest person in this administration, having been appointed by the same president on three different occasions for three different responsibilities.

“I am sure you will agree with me that he is more than qualified for the role he is about to assume.”

Former Senate Chief Whip, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, immediately moved the motion for Yuguda to “take a bow and go”.

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Kalu said: “President Tinubu has, on three occasions, appointed the same man to important national assignments. I therefore move that Mr. Lamido Yuguda be allowed to take a bow and go.”

The motion was seconded by the committee’s Acting Vice-Chairman, Senator Mohammed Sani Musa, who described the nominee as eminently qualified.

Musa said: “Looking at the résumé of the nominee and considering that Mr. President has repeatedly found him worthy of appointment to critical national offices, there is no doubt that he is eminently qualified.” ExecutiveBranch

The committee unanimously adopted the motion through a voice vote, after which Abiru formally declared Yuguda cleared.

The committee, however, quickly shifted attention to AMCON’s future, with Musa calling for a comprehensive briefing on the corporation’s performance as it approaches its statutory wind-up date in 2030.

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He reminded the management that AMCON was established to resolve non-performing loans, distressed banks and systemic financial risks, stressing that lawmakers needed a comprehensive assessment of its achievements and pending obligations.

Musa said: “It has a statutory lifespan and is expected to wind up around 2030. Looking at that timeline, there is a need for this committee to receive an up-to-date report on the status of AMCON.

“We need to know where the corporation stands today, what it has achieved since inception and what outstanding responsibilities remain before its expected sunset.”

Responding, Abiru assured the committee that the requested briefing would be provided.

He said: “I am sure the leadership of AMCON understands the point you have raised, and it is well noted.

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“I have no doubt that, in the not-too-distant future, the committee will receive a comprehensive response on the issues you have highlighted.” The recommendation confirming Yuguda’s appointment is expected to be presented before the Senate in plenary for final approval.

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CBN Retains Interest Rate at 26.5% as Cardoso Cites Global Uncertainty Despite Inflation Drop

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), the nation’s benchmark interest rate, at 26.5 per cent, citing heightened global uncertainties despite signs of resilience in the domestic economy.

CBN Retains Interest Rate at 26.5% as Cardoso Cites Global Uncertainty Despite Inflation Drop

The CBN Governor, Mr Olayemi Cardoso, announced the decision on Tuesday after the conclusion of the 306th meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held in Abuja from July 20 to July 21.

Cardoso said the committee resolved to maintain the current monetary policy stance after reviewing domestic and international economic developments.

“The Committee decided to retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5 per cent,” he said.

The governor said renewed geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continued to pose risks to global energy prices and inflation, necessitating a cautious approach.

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He said the committee also retained the Standing Facilities Corridor at +50/-450 basis points around the MPR.

The Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) was also left unchanged at 45 per cent for Deposit Money Banks, 16 per cent for merchant banks and 75 per cent for non-Treasury Single Account public sector deposits.

According to Cardoso, the MPC’s decision followed an assessment of the balance of risks confronting the economy.

“Although headline inflation moderated marginally in June 2026, global uncertainties have intensified, largely due to renewed hostilities in the Middle East,” he said.

He added that despite the challenging global environment, Nigeria’s economy had remained resilient, supported by ongoing structural reforms.

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The governor noted that the committee would continue to monitor economic developments and adjust policy measures when necessary to maintain price stability.

The latest decision represents the second time in 2026 that the MPC has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 26.5 per cent.

The announcement came shortly after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased slightly to 15.91 per cent in June 2026 from 15.93 per cent recorded in May.

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No Going Back on July 31 Deadline for Insurance Firms’ Recapitalisation –  NAICOM

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National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) has declared that it has no plans to extend the 31 July 2026, deadline for the ongoing insurance industry recapitalisation exercise, asserting that the date is firmly rooted in the new Insurance Act.

No Going Back on July 31 Deadline for Insurance Firms' Recapitalisation -  NAICOM

Speaking at the investiture of Mr Akinjide Oluwarotimi-Orimolade as the 53rd president of the Chartered Insurance Institute of Nigeria (CIIN) in Lagos, Olusegun Omosehin, commissioner for Insurance, emphasised that the exercise remained central to building a resilient market.

With less than two weeks left before the window closes, the regulator commended operators making steady progress but stressed that the timeline must be treated with absolute urgency.

Omosehin said, “A stronger capital base must translate into stronger service delivery, prompt claims settlement, improved consumer protection, and a market that Nigerians can trust.

“The industry’s future will be determined by the quality of leadership, depth of competence, and discipline in serving the public interest.”

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The ongoing exercise follows the historic signing of the Nigeria Insurance Industry Reform Act by President Bola Tinubu, which effectively repealed the outdated 2003 Insurance Act. Under the new framework, the sector is transitioning from a static baseline model to a dynamic risk-based capital structure. This regulatory shift aims to fortify operators against systemic economic shocks and better position the industry to contribute significantly to the Federal Government’s target of a $1tn economy.

Consequently, the exercise requires a massive capital lift across the board, pushing life underwriters from N2bn to N10bn, non-life operators from N3bn to N15bn, and reinsurers from N10bn to N35bn.

The push comes amid strong legislative alignment, with the National Assembly pledging its full backing to ensure these reforms translate into deeper market penetration.

Also speaking at the event, Ahmadu Jaha, chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Insurance and Actuarial Matters,  reaffirmed the parliament’s dedication to providing the necessary legal frameworks to drive sector growth.

Jaha said, “As Chairman of the House Committee on Insurance and Actuarial Matters, I wish to reaffirm the unwavering commitment of the House of Representatives to supporting legislative initiatives that will strengthen the insurance industry, improve regulatory effectiveness, enhance consumer protection and promote wider insurance penetration across Nigeria.

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“The National Assembly recognises the critical role of the insurance industry in mobilising long-term capital, financing infrastructure development, protecting businesses and households against unforeseen risks, promoting financial stability and driving sustainable economic growth.”

Responding to the charge, the newly inaugurated Orimolade, president, CIIN, stated that his administration would aggressively protect the public interest by advancing the core mandates of the institute.

Orimolade promised “to build on the programmes of my predecessors while evolving new ideas that can further increase insurance education, awareness and acceptance across the country.”

 

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