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FXTM Analysis: Markets Resilient Against Negative Shocks

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Monday’s miraculous stock market rebound continues to highlight how financial markets have become increasingly resilient against unexpected negative shocks with bulls exploiting the instances of weakness to propel prices higher.

The initial wave of jitters and uncertainty created from Italian voters’ rejection of constitutional changes transformed into a free for all as the risk-on magnetised investors to riskier assets.

Asian shares warmly welcomed the return of risk appetite with most arenas posting their biggest gains in two weeks as investors refocused on the heavily discussed reflation trade.

In Europe, shares were resilient on Monday with further appreciations expected today amid the stabilising oil prices and improvement in overall sentiment.

Wall Street continues to be buoyed by the rising confidence towards the health of the US economy while the champion known as Dow Jones has glided to fresh historical highs.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the market resilience is the product of investors learning to tie the knot tightly against negative news while also ignoring the waves.

Dollar Still Remains King
The Dollar edged lower during trading on Monday as investors took profit and adopted a prudent approach post-Italian referendum results.

Despite the slight weakness, sentiment still remains firmly bullish towards the Greenback with the rising optimism over Donald Trump boosting fiscal spending, cutting tax and increasing infrastructure spending ensuring the currency remains buoyed.

November’s impressive U.S services activity which hit a one-year high at 57.2 continues to highlight how domestic data from the world’s largest economy has repeatedly exceeded expectations in Q4.

Although it is widely expected that US interest rates will be increased in December’s meeting, much attention may be directed towards rate timings for 2017.

From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index could be experiencing a technical correction with support around 100.00 encouraging bullish investors to jump back in. Prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA but the MACD trades to the upside. If bears can conquer the 99.50 support, then sellers could make an appearance once again.

Euro Rocks The Currency Markets
The Euro displayed a savage recovery across the currency markets during trading on Monday with the EURUSD lurching a near 300 pips from the 1.050 lows as investors seemingly brushed away the Italian referendum “No” vote.

The mounting fears of political instability in Europe, uncertainty over the Italian economy and fears of Italy leaving the Eurozone were pushed to the side with risk-on propelling the Euro higher. While the short term gains in the Euro are very impressive, it may be too early to gauge the impacts of Sunday’s referendum results with more time needed in the New Year to digest the reality.

There still exists a layer of uncertainty over the next steps Italy may take and such could encourage the European Central Bank to extend its QE programme at December’s policy meeting.

Although sentiment should logically be bearish towards the Euro amid the uncertainty and anxiety, bulls have prevailed.

Euro bulls blasted through the 1.065 resistance with prices flying to fresh weekly highs above 1.075. If this upside momentum holds then the next relevant resistance may be found at 1.085.

Commodity Spotlight – Gold
The ever-rising expectations of the Federal Reserve raising US rates in December have left Gold extremely vulnerable to losses with the metal hovering around 10-month lows at $1170 as of writing.

This zero yielding metal has received a beating this year with the painful combination of mounting rate hike  expectations, Dollars resurgence and revival of investor risk appetite encouraging bears to install heavy rounds of selling.

With prices repeatedly creating lower lows and lower highs on the daily timeframe, the metal can be considered bearish. Previous resistance around $1190 could transform into a dynamic resistance that sparks a steeper selloff towards $1150.

Currency Spotlight – GBPUSD
Sterling bulls may be commended on their bravery to fight against the tide despite the persistent hard Brexit fears denting buying sentiment towards the currency.

This GBPUSD remains fundamentally bearish with a strengthening Dollar amid the heightened rate expectations capping extreme upside gains. From a technical standpoint, the current technical bounce on the daily timeframe could come to an end at the 1.2850 resistance.

Although a decisive breakout and daily close above 1.2850 could be a game changer for the bulls, this level is historically pivotal and could fight back.


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E-Financial

CBN Licenses Unified Payments as Second Provider for PTSA Services for Nigeria

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has awarded the country’s second Payment Terminal Service Aggregator (PTSA) license to Unified Payments, Nigeria’s premier financial technology company, following a rigorous and transparent process,

CBN Licenses Unified Payments as Second Provider for PTSA Services for Nigeria

The move is targeted at enforcing existing requirement that all transactions from point-of-sale channels in Nigeria must go through a licensed Payment Terminal Service Aggregator (PTSA).

The CBN is enforcing the laws to clamp down on financial crimes and other market misconducts and it aligns with the CBN’s objectives to fully track all electronic transactions in Nigeria, given the propensity of using such transactions to fund insecurity, violent crimes, banditry, kidnapping as well as other vices.

According to one analyst, “By awarding a second PTSA license, the apex bank has proactively responded to industry operators who had expressed serious concerns about channelling all transactions through a single aggregator, the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System PLC (NIBBS), as has been the case for some years.

“With the new policy direction, payments service providers would henceforth route all transactions through either of the two licensed Companies.”

Other financial analysts and industry players have commended the Central Bank, affirming that “the move can be a massive step in the right direction. They also commended the open, transparent, and inclusive manner via which the selection process was managed, and the license awarded.

“The selection process, which lasted for months, began with an invitation for qualified organisations within the payment industry to submit an Expression of Interest document, alongside other requisite documentation and additional capital requirement of N1 billion.”

 

The new management of CBN decided not to give the license out without going through an open process – and for the first time in licensing a payment service provider – the apex bank went through a public bid process outlined in its publication of Friday, January 5, 2024, in different national newspapers. At the end of the process, Unified Payments emerged as the most preferred service provider.

Unified Payment Services Limited, also called Unified Payments or UP, is a shared service provider within Nigeria’s financial technology sector owned by a consortium of Nigerian banks. For over 26 years, the firm has provided payment technology to banks and other industry operators. The first and only non-bank entity that is a principal member and licensed acquirer of all of American Express, Mastercard, Visa, UnionPay and Payattitude. Unified Payments facilitates both local and international transactions.

Formerly known as ValuCard Nigeria Plc, Unified Payments led the way to introduce POS payments in Nigeria under its card scheme known as ValuCard which is the first payment card to be issued in Nigeria. The company later transformed into a scheme-neutral and option-neutral service provider enabling transactions under different schemes.

The company has continued to provide leading payment technologies and services, enabling different operators to leverage its capabilities and licenses, enabling prompt and seamless transactions.

Among the shareholders of Unified Payments are First Bank, Access Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, Zenith Bank and Fidelity Bank. Other shareholders are Citibank Nigeria Limited, Ecobank of Nigeria Plc, First City Monument Bank Plc, Keystone Bank Ltd, Polaris Bank Ltd, Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc, Sterling Bank Plc and Wema Bank Plc.


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CIBN says Recapitalization will Empower Banks to Lend more to Economy

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Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, CIBN, has expressed support for the ongoing banking recapitalization exercise saying it will empower banks to lend more to the economy.

CIBN President, Dr. Ken Opara stated this yesterday while speaking at the annual lecture of the institute in Lagos, with the theme “Improving Availability of Credit in the Nigerian Real Economy: The Critical Importance of Liquidity.”

Okpara noted that the volume of credit to the real sector activities namely agriculture, manufacturing and services is low compared to their critical role in driving economic growth.

Consequently, he called for more credit to the real sector, saying, “I   propose that we consider offering more credit to these key sectors and particularly the agriculture sector. It is for this reason that the Recapitalization exercise is a welcome development.

“The recently announced upward review of the Minimum Capital Requirements of Nigeria by the Central Bank of Nigeria would further empower banks to extend more credit to the economy’s productive sectors.”

To address these factors impeding credit to the real sector, Okpara suggested that, “The government needs to improve further the ease of doing business and infrastructural development, such as power, roads, rail networks, etc.

“Setting up industrial centres where these companies can co-habit and share common infrastructure. Harmonize and reduce the various taxes and levies, including locating them in a single hub.

“Banks need to be deliberate in de-risking these companies via Capacity building programmes, and Advisory services.

Specialised Financial Institutions can be created in addition to the Bank of Industry (BOI), especially credit guarantee agencies and risk-sharing institutions, to further facilitate the deepening of credit as practiced in countries such as China which significantly transformed its economy.


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New Report Reveals 20% of Nigerians Use Bitcoin to Transact Daily

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A new report claims that 20 per cent of Nigerians are using Bitcoin to carry out financial transactions every day.

According to the open-source blockchain website, Elastos, the research was compiled from online interviews conducted with 1,407 self-defined ‘tech savvy’ respondents in Brazil, Germany, Nigeria, South Korea, UAE, the UK, and the US.

The interviews were completed by a third party, a registered market research company and completed between 30 March and 04 April ’24.

The report further revealed that 67 per cent of Nigerians would have more trust in Bitcoin to put their life savings than banks and local governments.

The report reads; “The inaugural BIT Index (Bitcoin; Innovation & Trust) – compiled from over 1,400 self-defined ‘tech savvy’ respondents from 7 countries across the globe – sheds light on the actual perception and use of Bitcoin in people’s daily lives, irrespective of its current valuation. Elastos’ BIT Index is part of ongoing research to better track the ‘real world’ use of Bitcoin together with users’ motivations, expectations and barriers around the same.

“In particular, the data reveals the role being played by emerging markets in terms of understanding, usage and confidence around Bitcoin. Nigerian respondents’ levels of usage and trust compare starkly with those expressed from so-called ‘established’ markets such as Germany and the UK and Germany where daily usage levels are just 8% (for German respondents) and (9% for their UK counterparts).

“In terms of the trust – in addition to Nigeria – significant proportions of respondents from Brazil (35 per cent) and the UAE (32 per cent) would have more confidence in Bitcoin-based services to protect their life savings compared to those from markets such as the UK (20 per cent) and Germany (22 per cent).

“When it comes to ensuring the integrity of online transactions, emerging market respondents also revealed their relative confidence in Bitcoin, compared to alternatives. According to the data, 66 per cent of Nigerian respondents and 35 per cent from Brazil have more confidence in Bitcoin-based systems than alternatives such as banks, or national Governments, compared to figures of just 16 per cent (Germany) and 21 per cent (UK) who feel the same.


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