E-Financial
FXTM Analysis: Nigeria Maintains Resilience Against the Storm

Confidence towards the Nigerian economy received a welcome boost following reports of the country reclaiming its position as the largest economy in Africa.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria’s GDP currently stood around $415.08 billion in October while South Africa at $280.36 billion sparking discussions of the nation standing firm against the storm.
Although the release was seen as a breath of fresh air, it must be kept in mind that Nigeria is still entangled in a painful battle with depressed oil prices while ongoing concerns over faltering domestic growth weigh on sentiment.
External risks such as a resurgent Dollar amid renewed US rate hike expectations have pressured the Naira, with the local currency currently trading around 448 on the black market exchange as of writing.
Oil’s volatility and rising rate hike expectations enticed bearish investors to send the Naira to the lows of 475 against the Dollar in early October before prices staged a remarkable rebound towards 450.
With the Naira’s value being dictated by external risks in the shorter term, the current rebound in value may be the product of oil’s resurgence amid renewed hopes of a potential OPEC freeze deal.
WTI Oil currently hovers above $50, a value which is supportive of Nigeria that receives over 90% of its export revenues, and 70% of its government revenues from oil prices. If Oil continues to trade higher and OPEC surprise the markets with a freeze deal, the world’s largest economy in Africa could be elevated as rising oil revenues would help plug the budget deficit.
Looking at the economic data, Nigeria’s inflation floated towards 17.9% in September its highest figure in eleven years consequently highlighting the pressures faced since the NBS stated that the country stumbled into a technical recession.
Although the figure was somewhat painful, the visible slowdown from August’s 17.6% level displayed the impacts of the record 14% interest rates set by the Central Bank of Nigeria. It seems that the CBN is on a quest to quelling inflation while attracting Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) via high-interest rates and although it may be early to gauge the impacts, the early results look encouraging.
The main theme in Nigeria revolves around the government finding solutions to fund its budget which could help the nation steer away from the curse of oil reliance. President Muhammadu Buhari has tabled a budget of roughly N6.06 trillion for 2016, but the shortfall continues to spark debates over selling key assets to plug the deficit. While selling the national assets may offer a solution in the short term the long-term losses of potentially relinquishing the goods at below cost value could place the nation under further pressure.
With Nigeria displaying resilience despite the persistent talks of a recession, nations such as China and America have come forward to offer a helping hand.
Chinese investors have already signed an agreement to boost the Nigerian economy with digital television, information communication in focus, while the U.S has pledged to increase FDI in Nigeria.
Despite the short-term gloom and doom, the global economy remains optimistic over the future of Nigeria’s economy once diversification builds momentum.
For instance, PwC’s research indicates that the nation could reach $1.4 trillion by 2030 making it a super power that could shake the globe. The first steps to this great journey remain critical with everything revolving around diversification and finding the right methods of funding.
When discussing diversification, the blueprints have already been published, with agriculture acting as the goose that lays the golden eggs. With a population hovering around 180 million and set to grow exponentially as the years progress, agriculture could be a key attribute which sparks economic stability.
Once any nation has the ability to feed itself, the surplus may be exported globally which could provide additional government revenues that are reinvested back into the nation. Other major sectors in Nigeria such as maritime, tourism, technology and manufacturing all have the ability to generate untold results once the infrastructure is reinforced.
The complicated jigsaw puzzle on how to stabilize the Nigerian economy slowly becomes solvable by the day as pieces such as diversification; funding and improving economic data provide investors the clarity needed to fill the gaps. When falling oil prices punished the nation the main focus revolved around diversification, but this has shifted to the budget deficit and solutions for funding.
Nigeria plans to sell a Eurobond worth $1 billion before the end of the year and if thisis successful it could bolster sentiment towards the Nigerian economy as the first steps are taken to plug it’s 2.2 trillion Naira budget deficit.
E-Financial
FG Says All Taxable Nigerian Must Obtain Taxpayer ID

Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), in collaboration with the Joint Revenue Board (JRB), has announced the implementation of a nationwide Taxpayer Identification (Tax ID) system, mandating all taxable persons in the country to obtain a unified tax identity.

The directive, unveiled in a public notice issued on Monday, is anchored in sections 6, 7, and 8 of the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, 2025.
The provisions require every individual and entity liable to tax in Nigeria to register for a Tax ID as part of broader reforms aimed at strengthening tax administration.
According to the notice, the Tax ID will function as a single, consolidated identifier for taxpayers, enabling seamless interaction with tax authorities across federal, state, and local levels.
The authorities said the system is designed to eliminate duplication of records, improve data integrity, and enhance the overall efficiency of tax-related processes.
The initiative forms part of ongoing efforts by regulators to deepen transparency, boost compliance, and curb revenue leakages within the tax ecosystem.
By harmonising taxpayer data across all tiers of government, officials expect improved accountability and more accurate tracking of tax obligations.
Under the new framework, the Tax ID will replace the existing Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN) validation system currently in use. Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), financial institutions, and other organisations relying on the TIN Validation API have been directed to transition to the new Tax ID infrastructure.
The NRS and JRB also advised organisations requiring system integration or validation services to engage with designated departments within both agencies for access to the Tax ID Application Programming Interface (API) and related technical guidelines.
Authorities say the reform will simplify registration, filing, and payment processes for taxpayers, while providing the government with a more robust mechanism for revenue assurance and fiscal planning.
The rollout signals a significant step in Nigeria’s ongoing tax modernisation agenda, as policymakers seek to expand the tax base and improve non-oil revenue mobilisation amid evolving economic pressures.
E-Financial
SEC Sets June 1 for Transition to T+1 Settlement Cycle

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the transition to the T+1 settlement cycle for capital market transactions from June 1, 2026.

T+1 settlement is a financial rule requiring that securities trades (like stocks, bonds, and ETFs) be finalized and ownership transferred just one business day after the trade is executed. It replaces the older T+2 system, giving investors faster access to their funds and reducing overall market risk.
This is coming some months after Nigeria moved from the T+3 settlement cycle to the T+2 settlement cycle.
In a notice on Monday, the SEC, which is the apex capital market regulator in Nigeria, said it was authorising the new system to “promote an efficient, fair, and transparent capital market.”
Under the new arrangement, equities and commodities traded by investors at the market would be cleared and settled by the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) within one day.
The agency noted that the migration to a T+1 settlement cycle forms part of its ongoing market modernisation initiatives aimed at enhancing market efficiency and strengthening risk management. reducing counterparty exposure, improving liquidity, and aligning the Nigerian capital market with international standards and global best practices.
“Accordingly, all eligible trades executed in the Nigerian capital market shall settle one business day after the trade date (T+1),” a part of the statement noted.
It was stressed that “Friday, May 29, 2026, shall be the final trading day under the existing T+2 settlement cycle. Trades executed on Friday, May 29, 2026, and Monday, June 1, 2026, shall both settle on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. All trades executed from Monday, June 1, 2026, onward shall be subject to the T+1 settlement cycle.”
SEC tasked all capital market operators, securities exchanges, clearing and settlement infrastructure providers, custodians, registrars, issuers, and other relevant stakeholders to take all necessary measures to ensure full operational readiness and compliance with the new settlement framework.
“Market participants are expected to review and align their systems, processes, controls, and operational workflows ahead of the implementation date,” it further stated, promising to continue to engage stakeholders and monitor the implementation process to ensure an orderly and seamless transition.
The regulator said it remains committed to strengthening market integrity, enhancing investor confidence, and fostering the development of a modern. resilient and globally competitive Nigerian capital market.
E-Financial
Chapel Hill Denham Says Banks Lose N2.5 Trillion Annually to High CRR in New Report

Nigeria’s banking sector is losing an estimated N2.5 trillion in annual earnings due to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s high Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) policy, according to a new report by Chapel Hill Denham.

The investment banking and research firm said the policy continues to impose significant constraints on bank profitability by requiring lenders to keep a large portion of customer deposits with the Central Bank without earning returns on them, effectively locking away funds that could otherwise support lending and income generation.
In its report titled “The Nigerian Banking Paradox: High Returns, Deep Discounts,” Chapel Hill Denham noted that although Nigerian banks rank among the highest return-on-equity performers in Africa, they remain undervalued compared to peers, largely due to regulatory constraints and macroeconomic uncertainty.
The firm identified the CRR regime as a key structural factor limiting the sector’s earnings potential, arguing that it reduces balance sheet efficiency and restricts credit creation to the real economy.
According to the report, banks are still required to pay interest on deposits while a significant portion of those funds remains sterilised at the apex bank.
Chapel Hill Denham stated that the current policy framework, which evolved in response to past financial sector instability and exchange rate pressures, may now be exerting a heavier drag on growth and profitability than originally intended.
“Our analysis reveals that Nigerian banks operate under a uniquely restrictive regulatory perimeter,” the report said, adding that the structure suppresses reported returns despite underlying profitability strength.
The report also compared Nigeria’s reserve requirements with other jurisdictions, noting that the country’s CRR remains significantly higher than several African and emerging markets.
While South Africa operates a 2.5 per cent CRR, Kenya maintains 4.25 per cent, Ghana 15 per cent, and Egypt 16 per cent, with Morocco reported to have reduced its reserve ratio to zero.
Analysts at the firm said a moderation of Nigeria’s CRR from 50 per cent to 30 per cent could release up to N8 trillion into the banking system and potentially boost annual pre-tax profits by about N800 billion.
They added that investors currently price Nigerian banks on the assumption that the tight monetary stance will persist, limiting valuation upside despite strong earnings performance.
At its February 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria retained the CRR for Deposit Money Banks at 45 per cent, while Merchant Banks remained at 16 per cent, and public sector deposits outside the Treasury Single Account framework at 75 per cent, as part of efforts to sustain tight monetary conditions and manage liquidity pressures.
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