E-Financial
FXTM Analysis: Nigeria Stumbles into Q4

Prolonged periods of depressed oil prices have punished most oil export dependent countries in 2016 with Nigeria being no exception.
When one factors in that the nation receives over 90% of export and 70% government revenues from oil which is currently struggling below $50 a barrel, it could be understood why the world’s second largest economy in Africa has entered a technical recession.
This has been a rough year for the economy with the CBN taking action on various occasions from the Naira de-peg, to raising interest rates to record highs in a bid to reclaim some stability.
Despite the attempts, unemployment still lingers around 13.3% while inflation skyrocketed to 17.6% in August consequently enforcing additional pressures on the nation already engaged in a painful battle with falling oil.
It has become increasingly clear that Nigeria’s illness can be diagnosed as oil reliance, but the cure can be found in diversification.
The Naira continues to be exposed to downside risks as the terrible combination of oil price volatility and Dollars potential resurgence amid US rate hike expectations entices sellers to attack.
With sentiment towards the Nigerian economy still somewhat bearish in the shorter term, further declines could be expected in the local currency as the natural forces of supply and demand determine its equilibrium value. It should be kept in mind that the ongoing forex scarcity which continues to pressure the Naira has created a firm foundation for bears to install repeated rounds of selling.
There exists a possibility of the Naira strengthening in the longer term but the currency remains heavily exposed to external risks in the short term. From a technical standpoint, the Naira is heavily bearish and this negative momentum could open a path towards 500 and potential higher against the Dollar on the black market exchange.
While the effects of the Naira floatation can be displayed with the sharp drop in currency value and rising inflation, this has also bolstered foreign investment towards the nation.
Since the introduction of the flexible foreign exchange regime, almost 1 billion dollars has entered the country from foreign direct investments with further inflows expected if the Naira continues to decline.
Market participants may focus on the pending inflation figures for September which could provide additional clarity over if the Central Bank of Nigeria takes further action in 2016. With the economy still under pressure, the CBN may be entangled in a three-way battle with attaining growth, curbing inflation while also retaining some credibility.
There have been many discussions over the record high-interest rates of 14% repelling business to borrow consequently obstructing GDP growth, but with central bank caution remaining a recurrent theme, the CBN may be on standby before taking action in November or December.
Nigeria is in need of capital to boost its economy and this has sparked talks of the nation selling its national assets to calm investors, curb currency speculations and potentially stabilize growth.
With the government receiving very little from depressed oil prices and the obstructions in the south depleting production even further, selling the assets could be a solution in the short term. Many have been against the idea of relinquishing the assets and have labelled it as a quick fix which could leave the nation under further pressure in the longer term.
With oil prices trading below $50 and the persistent uncertainty over the conflict in the south of Nigeria weighing on sentiment, this may be an unfavourable period to offload oil assets. When coupled with the state of the economy, the government could find itself in a position of weakness when selling potentially receiving a deal well below the true value.
The world’s second largest economy in Africa faces a dilemma between selling its national assets and borrowing externally to retrieve enough investments to jumpstart growth. It should be kept it mind that diversification and reinforcing infrastructure need capital which the nation does not possess consequently creating a situation where a decisive decision must be taken.
While Nigeria may be commended on its efforts to boosting foreign exchange investments via the floatation and tax reforms to bolstering government revenues, this is still far from the 15 Billion needed to fuel its structural transition.
The African Development Bank, IMF, and even China have all offered loans to help reinvigorate growth but it seems that the nation has decided to think things through before potentially taking action in 2017.
Despite the current gloom and doom, the longer term outlook for Nigeria still looks quite encouraging with the biggest challenge being how the nation weathers the uncertainty and external risks in the short term. With a population of over 180 million and fertile lands, agriculture could be the miracle pill which brings Nigeria back to health. Once the nation can feed its people, the surplus could be exported which could provide the revenues needed for the government to reinvest back into the economy.
If the infrastructure is reinforced, then tourism could receive a welcome boost as safer roads magnetize tourists to the nation. Nigeria’s untapped maritime is a hidden gem that has been estimated to generate roughly 7 trillion Naira annually if properly managed and could be one of the attributes which reflate the economy. The resources needed for Nigeria to steer away from oil dependence are present and the key may simply be proper management and time.
As Q4 commences, Nigeria may be slightly pressured if oil price volatility and a resurgent Dollar punishes the Naira further. Although OPEC shocked the global markets last week by deciding on an agreement to mitigate the oversupply woes, oil still remains somewhat pressured potentially trickling back to oil export nations.
If the Federal Reserve decides to raise US interest rates in December, then both the Naira and Oil could be vulnerable to heavy losses as bears install repeated rounds of selling.
There could be an increasing focus on key domestic economic reports such as inflation, unemployment, and GDP for further clarity on how the Central Bank of Nigeria may jumpstart growth. This is a very critical time for Nigeria and although diversification is the key for the nation to transition away from oil dependence, many will be observing where the funding will come from.
E-Financial
FG Proposes Africa-Wide Payment Card without Conversion through US Dollar

Taiwo Oyedele, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the Economy, has said that Africa’s payment ecosystem should move beyond traditional systems that rely on third-party currencies for cross-border transactions, noting that such arrangements increase costs and create inefficiencies.

Taiwo Oyedele, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the Economy
To this end, he proposed the development of an Africa-wide payment card that would enable direct transactions between African currencies without requiring conversion through the United States dollar or other intermediary currencies, as part of efforts to deepen intra-African trade and reduce transaction costs.
Oyedele, made the proposal while receiving a delegation from Mastercard in Abuja.
Currently, most card payments between African countries are routed through currencies such as the U.S. dollar. For instance, when a Nigerian cardholder makes a purchase in Ghana, the transaction is often converted from Ghanaian cedis to U.S. dollars before being converted into naira, attracting additional costs through multiple exchange-rate conversions.
Speaking during the meeting, the minister urged Mastercard to support the creation of a payment system that allows direct settlements between African currencies.
“We hope that, for example, we have a payment card that you can use to pay from naira to Kenyan shillings, to South African rand, without a third currency. And we know you can make it possible,” Oyedele said.
He said eliminating intermediary currencies would improve payment efficiency, reduce transaction costs and strengthen economic integration across the continent, particularly under the framework of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
The minister also called on Mastercard to expand access to credit cards in Nigeria, describing consumer credit penetration as low even among top public officials and high-income earners.
“Based on my own personal experience, one of the areas where we hope you will take the lead is just making credit cards available to Nigerians.
It is difficult, even for someone at my level, to get a credit card,” he said.
While acknowledging the progress made by Nigeria’s financial technology sector, Oyedele said there remains significant room for growth and innovation.
He noted that Nigeria hosts five of Africa’s nine fintech unicorns, reflecting the country’s growing prominence in the continent’s digital finance landscape.
“Our fintech sector is quite developed, but we know that we can do much better. We can be much bigger,” he said.
“It is interesting to know that Africa has nine unicorns, and five of them are in Nigeria. So we know that the possibilities are even bigger.”
Oyedele assured investors and fintech operators of the government’s commitment to maintaining policy consistency and providing regulatory support to encourage further investment and expansion.
“We welcome you to Nigeria. We want you to do more, and we are willing, from the government’s side, to work with you,” he added.
The proposal comes amid expectations of rapid growth in Africa’s cross-border payments market over the next decade. Industry reports project the market will expand significantly as fintech adoption rises, mobile money usage grows, and intra-African trade increases under AfCFTA.
Despite the growth prospects, stakeholders say cross-border payments across Africa continue to face challenges including fragmented financial systems, multiple currency conversions, high transaction costs and settlement inefficiencies.
E-Financial
Providus, Unity Bank Begin Integration Phase after Supreme Court Nod

The merger between Providus Bank and Unity Bank has entered the integration phase following the completion of all legal and regulatory requirements, setting the stage for the emergence of ProvidusUnity Bank Limited.

Recall that the Supreme Court upheld the merger scheme, ordering all of Unity Bank’s assets and liabilities to be transferred to Providus Bank.
The enlarged institution operates as a national commercial bank.
Providus Bank in a statement to customers formally notified them of the announced the successful completion of the legal process backing the merger and assured them that banking operations would remain seamless throughout the integration period.
“We are pleased to announce the final court sanction of the merger between ProvidusBank and Unity Bank. This business combination is set to create a strong institution with broader national reach, deeper capabilities and an even greater commitment to delivering exceptional banking experiences to you,” the bank stated.
According to the bank, the merger marks a significant milestone that will strengthen its capacity to serve customers through improved access to banking services, enhanced technology infrastructure, stronger digital capabilities and expanded product offerings.
“This merger represents an important milestone in our journey and positions us to serve you better through expanded access, enhanced technology infrastructure, improved digital capabilities, improved product offerings, and a wider network of service channels across Nigeria,” the bank said.
Providus Bank also assured customers that the transition would not affect their banking relationship, stressing that all accounts and existing service channels would remain fully operational during the integration process.
“Your banking relationship remains secure and uninterrupted,” the bank assured customers, adding that they would continue to enjoy access to their accounts and banking services through existing channels while integration activities progress.
The bank further noted that customers should expect improved service delivery arising from the merger, supported by stronger capabilities and a wider operational footprint across the country. It added that any actions required from customers during the transition would be communicated clearly and in advance.
Highlighting the strategic importance of the combination, the bank said the next phase of its evolution is geared towards building a stronger institution capable of supporting economic growth while maintaining high service standards.
“This next chapter reflects our commitment to building a stronger institution for customers, supporting economic growth and continuing to deliver the service standards you expect from us,” it stated.
E-Financial
EFCC, CAC Raise Concerns over Unregistered PoS Operators

Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) have expressed concern over the growing activities of unregistered Point of Sale (POS) operators and warned that they pose significant risks to businesses, the financial system and national security.

The concern was raised on Thursday in Abuja when Senator Ibrahim Adah, chairman of the CAC Board, led a delegation of the commission’s management staff on a courtesy visit to Mr Ola Olukoyede, executive chairman of the EFCC, at the anti-graft agency’s headquarters.
Adah disclosed that only about 20 per cent of POS operators in Nigeria are currently registered with the CAC, describing the situation as a violation of the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) 2020 and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Agent Banking Regulations 2026, which require businesses operating under business names to be duly registered.
He appealed for stronger collaboration between both agencies to enforce compliance and develop a reliable database of POS operators for law enforcement purposes.
According to him, emerging evidence indicates that criminal proceeds, including ransom payments from kidnapping activities, are sometimes channelled through POS terminals.
“We seek closer cooperation in developing a reliable database of POS operators for use by the EFCC and other law enforcement agencies,” Adah said.
He noted that the visit was part of efforts to strengthen partnerships with institutions whose mandates intersect with that of the CAC, particularly in combating financial crimes.
The CAC chairman stressed that the two agencies could not effectively tackle economic and financial crimes in isolation, especially those involving corporate entities.
“When companies are misused for fraud or money laundering, the mandates of both institutions are directly affected. Neither of the two agencies can therefore fight and win the war against economic and financial offences if we work alone,” he said.
Adah identified data and intelligence sharing, public sensitisation on financial risks, and staff capacity building as critical areas for deeper collaboration, reaffirming the CAC’s commitment to protecting the integrity of Nigeria’s financial system.
Responding, Olukoyede described the activities of unregulated POS operators as a major challenge to the country’s financial ecosystem.
“If you do not regulate the activities of such key players, you will be having major problems and challenges within your financial ecosystem,” he said.
The EFCC chairman assured the CAC of the commission’s readiness to strengthen cooperation in tackling economic crimes and promoting regulatory compliance.
He described the CAC as the gateway to economic growth in Nigeria, noting that foreign investors often have their first engagement with the country through the commission.
Olukoyede revealed that the EFCC had established a dedicated desk to handle matters relating to the CAC and disclosed that the commission was currently investigating about 200 companies referred to it by the corporate regulator.
“As a matter of fact, I think we have about 200 companies that you forwarded to us that we are currently investigating and we have made reasonable progress.
“We have made very interesting discoveries, which will help you when you lay your hands on the report,” he said.
He added that many public corruption cases handled by the EFCC involve procurement and contract fraud perpetrated through companies registered by the CAC.
Olukoyede also underscored the need for both agencies to address insider-related challenges and improve internal accountability mechanisms.
On information sharing, he directed officials of both organisations to review and update their existing Memorandum of Understanding to reflect current realities, particularly regarding beneficial ownership information and data protection.
The renewed partnership, according to both agencies, is aimed at deepening corporate compliance, enhancing transparency and safeguarding the integrity of Nigeria’s financial system.
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