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FXTM Analysis: Nigeria’s Economy Remains Resilient

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Nigeria has displayed some resilience against the ongoing recessionary headwinds in 2017, with domestic data currently suggesting early signs of a potential recovery in economic growth.

An appreciation in oil prices at the start of the year and increased oil production domestically have positively impacted the nation, while Central Bank intervention created some form of economic stability.

With the solid Sales Manager Index for April suggesting that the Nigerian economy is slowly creeping out of recessionary territories, the overall outlook could start to look encouraging. Sentiment may be in the process of turning bullish and the IMF’s projections of growth hitting 0.8% should compound to the positivity over a recovery in economic momentum.

The Naira clawed back some losses against the Dollar this year, with prices trading around 385N on the black market exchange as of writing.

The sharp acceleration of external reserves allowed the Central Bank of Nigeria to increase the supply of foreign exchange in the interbank markets, which consequently narrowed the gap between the official and black market exchange.

Although the Naira has the ability to appreciate further if the CBN continues to supply foreign exchange, questions may be asked over the sustainability of this method and the impact it will have on the nation’s external reserves. A situation where oil prices start to depreciate sharply and Nigeria’s reserve diminishes could expose the Nigerian Naira to downside risks.

As the largest economy in Africa embarks on a quest to regain economic stability, the Central Bank of Nigeria should strive to allow market forces to decide the true value of the Nigerian Nigeria.

While a currency devaluation could weaken the Naira considerably in the short to medium term, the longer term benefits which include a potential increase in foreign investor confidence may be advantageous for economic growth.

With the multiple exchange rate system still a gray area that needs to be rectified, speculation could heighten further over the CBN taking some form of action in the future.

On the foreign exchange front, repeated Dollar weakness from the receding US rate hike expectations may support the Naira further on the black market exchange.

Taking a deeper look into Nigeria’s macro fundamentals, inflation in March displayed early signs of cooling with consumer prices reaching 17.26%. Expectations have heightened over the nation’s inflation trending downwards this year if the Naira stabilizes and such may improve the purchasing power of Nigerians.

An increase in purchasing power may boost the demand for consumer and industrial goods ultimately feeding back to economic growth. Although the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to maintain a passive approach as the nation slowly recovers, a hawkish monetary stance could be adopted by year-end if the upside momentum gains further traction.

External risks such as oil market volatility and the actions of the Federal Reserve may impact Nigeria this year, with much attention directed towards the ongoing OPEC developments. Oil markets remain gripped by the oversupply concerns with the resurgence of US Shale obstructing OPEC’s efforts to stabilizing the oil markets.

Although OPEC has shown optimism over a potential extension of the supply cut agreement reviving the oil markets, price action states otherwise. From a technical standpoint, WTI Crude has found itself pressured on the daily charts with repeated weakness below $50 opening a path towards $45 in the medium to longer term.

While diversification still remains a dominant theme when focusing on Nigeria, investors have started to direct some attention towards the nation’s inflation, foreign exchange market and other forms of hard economic data.

With expectations mounting of lower inflation, and speculations heightened over the CNB stabilizing the foreign exchange market, sentiment towards the largest economy in Africa could receive a further boost.

As the second quarter of 2017 gets underway, markets will continue to observe how the Central Bank of Nigeria deals with the multiple exchange situation and if the CBN officially allows the forces of supply and demand to determine the equilibrium value of the Naira.

 


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E-Financial

Ecobank in Talks with Bank of China for Direct Yuan Settlement

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Ecobank, Pan-African lender, said it is in advanced talks with the Bank of China to set up a direct yuan settlement system by the end of 2026, eliminating the need to use the U.S. dollar as an intermediary in trade with China.

Ecobank in Talks with Bank of China for Direct Yuan Settlement

For traders in Lagos, Nairobi or Lomé sourcing goods from China, payments have so far been complex and costly.

Paying a supplier in Guangzhou typically requires converting local currency into dollars, then into yuan.

The two-step process increases banking fees and cuts into margins.

Ecobank aims to remove that constraint.

“We are looking at opportunities for us to settle with, instead of going through the dollar, we do it directly with the Chinese yuan,” Jeremy Awori, chief executive, Ecobank told Reuters.

The move reflects current trade dynamics: China is Africa’s largest trading partner by a wide margin. Chinese exports to Africa rose 26% to $225 billion in 2025, contributing to a record $348 billion in total trade.

Beijing has also expanded its financial footprint, with around $39 billion in new contracts signed in 2025, making it the largest bilateral investor by new flows.

Ecobank’s talks with the Bank of China are part of a broader shift across Africa to reduce reliance on the dollar.

In November, South Africa’s Standard Bank took a similar step by joining China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS).

Across the continent, governments and financial institutions are seeking alternatives to a currency that has become costly and harder to access. Backed by the African Union, the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) is already reducing conversion costs for intra-African trade. Some countries are moving further: Tanzania and Zambia have restricted the use of the dollar in domestic transactions, while the Democratic Republic of Congo plans to do the same next year.

The trend is also supported by the growing influence of the BRICS+ bloc, which Egypt and Ethiopia have joined and which is promoting a more multipolar financial system.

China is no longer the only player pursuing this strategy.

A high-stakes contest is emerging with the United Arab Emirates for financial and logistical influence in Africa.

Abu Dhabi is expanding its presence through investments in ports and energy infrastructure, alongside financial initiatives.

The UAE has signed multiple currency swap agreements with countries including Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria to facilitate transactions in dirhams and local currencies, reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar.

 


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CBN Warns of Cyber Hack Attempt Days after CAC Attack

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has warned the public of a fresh cyber hack attempt to access personal accounts, just days after the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) confirmed a major cyber attack on its systems.

CBN Warns of Cyber Hack Attempt Days After CAC Attack

CBN

In a statement signed by Hakama Sidi‑Ali, acting director of corporate communications, issued Tuesday, April 21, 2026, the apex bank said cybercriminals are circulating fraudulent emails and online messages falsely claiming to originate from the CBN.

The messages reportedly contain suspicious links and false narratives about the bank’s leadership, licensing activities, and policy decisions, with the aim of compromising Nigerians’ personal information and hacking their accounts.

The CBN reiterated that its official website remains www.cbn.gov.ng and urged Nigerians to avoid clicking links or sharing sensitive data via suspicious websites or unknown contacts. It also advised the public to verify all CBN‑related communications through the official portal and recognised media outlets, and to report suspected fraudulent sites or emails to law enforcement.

The warning comes after the CAC confirmed on April 15, 2026, that its information systems were breached by hackers, exposing millions of company documents and triggering an investigation by the Nigeria Data Protection Commission (NDPC).

The CBN said it is strengthening its cybersecurity frameworks in collaboration with relevant agencies to protect the financial system and safeguard users from digital fraud.


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PalmPay Hits 35m Users’ Milestone

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PalmPay said that it has surpassed 35 million users, a figure that reflects a broader transition in the sector from rapid customer acquisition to sustained, everyday financial usage.

PalmPay Hits 35m Users’ Milestone

Chika Nwosu, Managing Director-CEO, PalmPay Nigeria

The consumer payments platform entered Nigeria’s fintech market in 2019 and is today a major player, offering a suite of financial services including transfers, bill payments, and digital insurance to promote financial inclusion.

In a market historically shaped by traditional banks, emerging fintechs, and a strong cash culture, scale alone is no longer the defining benchmark of success.

Instead, attention is shifting to how effectively platforms integrate into the daily financial routines of individuals and businesses.

Central to PalmPay’s growth is its alignment with Nigeria’s payment infrastructure.

The platform has executed live transactions on the National Payment Stack operated by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS), placing it within an interoperable framework that connects banks, fintechs, and other financial service providers.

Within this ecosystem, industry observers note that competition is increasingly determined by system performance—uptime, transaction success rates, and reliability—rather than product differentiation alone.

However, integration at the infrastructure level does not automatically translate to inclusion. According to data from Enhancing Financial Innovation and Access (EFInA), a significant proportion of Nigerians—particularly in rural and underserved communities—remain outside the formal financial system.

To address this gap, PalmPay has expanded its agent network, mirroring a wider industry approach that combines digital platforms with physical access points.

Through these agents, users can carry out deposits, withdrawals, transfers, and onboarding, effectively bridging the divide between cash-based transactions and digital finance.

This hybrid model has become a cornerstone of financial service delivery in Nigeria, underscoring the importance of distribution alongside technology.

Beyond core payment services, PalmPay has also extended into financial literacy and capacity-building initiatives, targeting underserved groups such as women-led businesses and first-time digital users. The move signals a growing recognition that access alone is insufficient without the knowledge and confidence to participate fully in the financial system.

Overall, PalmPay’s reported scale offers insight into a maturing fintech landscape, where growth is increasingly defined not just by user numbers, but by the extent to which platforms become embedded in the everyday financial lives of Nigerians.


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