E-Financial
FXTM Analysis: Trump vs Yellen & Draghi vs Weidmann
FXTM Chief Market Strategist, comments on the battle between Bundesbank’s Weidmann and Draghi on when to end the loose monetary policy:
The U.S. dollar has been on a roller-coaster this week. After dropping by more than 1% on Tuesday the dollar index recovered 0.9% from its lows.
The steep drop in the currency came after comments from Donald Trump suggesting that the dollar is too strong, and this led some traders to believe the recent rally could have come to an end, but comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday brought back hopes to the bulls.
Yellen did not specify the timeline or the pace of projected interest rates hikes, but she indicated the Fed will raise rates few times a year until 2019 and warned of a nasty surprise if the central bank refrained from acting.
Although there’s no precise definition of “few”, we can reasonably believe it means two to three times a year, which leave many central banks behind.
Recent economic data supports Yellen’s views as inflation rose in 2016 at its fastest pace in five years. U.S. CPI jumped 0.3% in December to breach the 2% benchmark, and if oil prices held above $50 the trend is not likely to reverse.
This leaves only the Fed’s preferred gauges of inflation, the PCE and Core PCE Price Index below 2%. However, there is a high risk of these indices overshooting the Fed’s target if fiscal policies came into play and the Fed will be left with little options but to fasten the pace of monetary policy tightening, thus keep supporting the dollar.
On the shorter run, Trump will remain the center focus for traders and his inauguration on Friday will play a major role in the dollar’s direction. It’s highly unlikely that he will reiterate that the strong dollar is hurting the economy, but if his speech contains more protectionist policies than stimulus measures, it could harm the dollar, at least in short term.
The European Central Bank is meeting today and will most likely keep monetary policy unchanged after the central bank extended and reduced the monthly bond purchases to €60 from €80 in their last meeting. Although it might be considered a non-event, we’ll be carefully listening to Draghi to see if the recent improvement in Eurozone data, especially when it comes to inflation, will force the ECB to start considering unwinding their QE policies.
PMI’s across the Eurozone reached 5.5 years high in December and inflation climbed to 1.12, the highest since August 2013. Meanwhile German inflation jumped to 1.7%, thanks to higher oil prices.
This will undoubtedly create a battle between Bundesbank’s Weidmann and Draghi on when to end the loose monetary policy. Of course, Mr. Draghi has his reasons, especially since political risks will intensify in the next couple of months with presidential elections in France, Germany and the Netherland’s, but once we’re over it, I believe the ECB will start ending their untraditional QE policies. This suggests the Euro is likely to remain under pressure until probably mid-2017.
E-Financial
First Securities Brokers Empowers Nigerians to Trade in the Stock Market with the Launch of FirstInvest App
First Securities Brokers, one of Nigeria’s leading stockbroking firms and a subsidiary of FirstHoldCo Plc, is pleased to announce the official launch of the FirstInvest App, an innovative mobile investment platform designed to make stock market investing simpler, faster, and more accessible for Nigerians.
The FirstInvest App offers investors a seamless digital experience, enabling them to open and manage their investment accounts, monitor their portfolios, and trade equities listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) directly from their mobile devices.
Designed with both new and experienced investors in mind, the platform combines convenience, security, and ease of use to help users make informed investment decisions anytime and anywhere.
As Nigeria continues to embrace digital financial services, the FirstInvest App reinforces First Securities Brokers’ commitment to driving financial inclusion and expanding access to wealth creation opportunities through technology.
Speaking on the launch, Fiona Ahmed Ahimie, Managing Director of First Securities Brokers, said: “The launch of the FirstInvest App represents another significant milestone in our digital transformation journey and our commitment to delivering innovative investment solutions to our clients.
“We understand that today’s investors value convenience, speed, and accessibility. FirstInvest has been developed to provide exactly that: a secure and intuitive platform that empowers individuals to participate confidently in the capital market from wherever they are.”
She added: “Our goal is to remove the traditional barriers associated with investing by placing the power of timely investment and decision making in the stock market directly in the hands of Nigerians. Whether you are taking your first investment step, actively managing your portfolio or just evaluating your investment, FirstInvest provides the tools and flexibility needed to support your financial aspirations.”
The app delivers a range of features designed to enhance your investing experience, including: Secure digital account opening and onboarding, Real-time access to investment portfolios, Buy and sell Nigerian equities with ease, User-friendly trading interface, Secure transaction processing, Convenient access to market information and investment opportunities.
The launch of FirstInvest aligns with First Securities Brokers’ broader strategy of leveraging technology to improve customer experience while supporting the growth of retail participation in Nigeria’s capital market.
First Securities Brokers remains committed to providing trusted investment advisory services, innovative financial solutions, and exceptional customer service, helping clients build and preserve wealth across generations. The FirstInvest App is now available for download on the Google Play Store and the Apple App Store.
The next currency crisis could accelerate the shift of the roughly $315 billion global stablecoin market into a digital-dollar alternative for citizens in emerging economies, notably in regions like sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
As local fiat currencies face devaluation and high inflation, citizens and businesses are increasingly utilizing smartphone-based stablecoins (such as USDT and USDC) as hedges and primary mediums of exchange.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the rapid adoption of dollar-linked digital assets—particularly in countries heavily affected by inflation like Nigeria—poses significant risks to monetary sovereignty.
With up to 95% of surveyed individuals in some African markets preferring to receive payments in stablecoins over local fiat, the rising volume of these decentralized, cross-border channels weakens domestic currency demand and dilutes the effectiveness of local monetary policy.
IMF observed in a report titled “Stablecoins in Nigeria: A Growing Cross-Border Channel” noted that the widespread use of stablecoins poses risks to monetary sovereignty, particularly as more individuals and businesses turn to digital dollar-linked assets for savings and transactions.
Nodding in agreement is Future Investment Initiative Institute (FII Institute), a non-profit organisation run by the Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s main sovereign wealth fund.
FII Institute said that central banks face structural challenges.
And according to the institute, when citizens move savings out of national banks and into private digital wallets, conventional capital controls lose their grip.
Institutions like the Bank for International Settlements warn that interest-bearing stablecoins compete directly with domestic-currency deposits, complicating financial oversight and making smartphone-based transfers incredibly difficult for authorities to monitor.
In Nigeria, Naira depreciation has pushed users toward dollar-stablecoins, according to report by Gino Matos in cryptoslate.com.
A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a steady value by pegging its price to a reserve asset, such as a fiat currency (e.g., the U.S. dollar) or a commodity (e.g., gold).
They act as a bridge between traditional money and the digital asset world, providing the speed of crypto without the extreme price swings of assets like Bitcoin.
Federal government has reopened three federal government of Nigeria (FGN) bond issues valued at N1.2 trillion for subscription as part of efforts to raise long-term funds from the domestic debt market.
The Debt Management Office (DMO), which announced the offer on Tuesday, said the three reopened bond issues are each valued at N400 billion.
According to the DMO, the first offer is the January 2035 FGN Bond, a 10-year reopening, carrying an interest rate of 22.60 per cent per annum.
The second is the May 2028 FGN Bond, a 15-year reopening, with a coupon rate of 15.45 per cent per annum, while the third is the June 2037 FGN Bond, a 20-year reopening, also valued at N400 billion.
The office said the bond auction is scheduled for July 20, while successful subscriptions will be settled on July 22.
It explained that the bonds are offered at N1,000 per unit, with a minimum subscription of N50 million and additional investments in multiples of N1,000.
For the reopened bonds, the DMO said successful bidders would pay a price based on the yield-to-maturity that clears the auction, in addition to any accrued interest on the instruments.
Interest on the bonds will be paid every six months, while the principal will be repaid in full on the respective maturity dates.
The DMO reaffirmed that FGN bonds are backed by the full faith and credit of the Federal Government and constitute obligations chargeable on the general assets of the federation.
It added that the bonds qualify as trustee investment securities under the Trustee Investment Act and enjoy tax exemptions for eligible investors, including pension funds, under the Company Income Tax Act and Personal Income Tax Act.
The bonds are listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) and FMDQ Securities Exchange and also qualify as liquid assets for banks in computing their liquidity ratios.
FGN bonds are long-term debt instruments through which investors lend money to the Federal Government in exchange for periodic interest payments and repayment of the principal at maturity.
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