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FXTM Analysis: UK Inflation Accelerates in April, Sterling Sinks

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on UK inflation and the current moods of Sterling, Euro and Dollar.

Sterling tumbled lower on Tuesday following reports of UK consumer prices jumping to 2.7% in April, the highest level since September 2013. It is becoming quite clear that the Brexit-fuelled currency weakness has elevated inflation to uneasy levels with consumers likely to feel the pinch if wage growth fails to keep up.

Despite the rising prices, expectations of an interest rate increase in the short term remain subdued with uncertainty over Brexit and BoE doves playing a key part.

The Bank of England may receive further headaches in the future with the combination of rising inflation and slowing economic growth weighing heavily on sentiment.

Sterling/Dollar is under pressure on the daily charts as bulls are struggling to keep above 1.2900. An intraday breakdown below 1.2850 should encourage a further depreciation lower towards 1.27750.

Dollar Bulls Missing In Action
The Greenback entered the trading week under renewed selling pressure as the amalgamation of political tensions in the US and soft economic data impeded investor attraction towards the currency.

Sentiment towards the Greenback took another hit on Monday after sellers exploited the surprisingly soft US manufacturing report to enforce further downside pressures. With the Dollar descending to its lowest level at 98.50 since Donald Trump’s presidential victory in November, the Trump rally could be on its last leg. While heightened expectations remain over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates in June, the ongoing uncertainty revolving around Trump may ensure Dollar bulls remain missing in action. From a technical standpoint, the Greenback is bearish on the daily charts with weakness below 98.50 opening a path towards 98.00.

EURUSD breaks above 1.1000
A recent relief of political risk in Europe has rekindled appetite for the Euro with prices lurching to a fresh six-month high at 1.1040 as of writing.

With Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French Presidential election dealing a symbolic blow to populism and quelling fears of “Frexit”, investors have redirected their attention back towards the macro-economics in Europe.

The overall data from Europe in recent months has displayed a touch of resilience and it will be interesting to see how the improving macro-fundamentals and Macron’s victory impact the ECB meeting in June. Euro bulls seem to be back in town with a vulnerable Dollar fuelling the upside rally.

From a technical standpoint, the breakout above 1.1000 has turned the EURUSD bullish on the daily charts. A daily close above 1.1000 should encourage a further appreciation towards 1.1120.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
A vulnerable Dollar supported Gold on Tuesday with the metal finding comfort around $1235 as of writing. Although US interest rate hike expectations are likely to dictate where Gold trades to in the medium to longer term, uncertainty, and geological tensions should support the metal in the short term.

Persistent Dollar weakness should encourage short term bulls to send prices above $1235. A breakout above $1235 may provide permission for buyers to send prices higher towards $1245.


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E-Financial

BVN Enrollments Hit 69.55m- NIBSS

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Nigeria’s Bank Verification Number (BVN) database expanded to 69.55 million as of July 5 2026 from 69.32 million in June 2026, according to latest data released by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS).

BVN Enrollments Hit 69.55m- NIBSS

BVN is an 11-digit biometric identification system introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria and managed by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) to secure customer accounts and reduce fraud.

This means that BVN enrolments increased by 228,947 between June and July 5 this year.

With the BVN database standing at 67.8 million as of December 31, 2025, it also means that the database grew by 1.75 million between the end of last year and July 5, 2026.

Specifically, with less than 1.8 million BVN enrolments so far recorded for this year, it is looking highly unlikely that BVN registrations at the end of 2026 will come close to the 4.3 million total registrations recorded in 2025.

Analysts note that while the expansion in the BVN database last year was largely driven by the introduction of the NonResident Bank Verification Number (NRBVN) initiative, which enables Nigerians in the diaspora to do their BVN enrolment remotely, thereby removing physical barriers and boosting cross-border financial engagement, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in March this year, announced a revised BVN regulatory framework, that saw it introducing stricter controls on suspected fraudulent transactions, BVN enrollment, and data access within the banking system.

According to the regulator, the amendments to the BVN framework, which came into effect on May 1, 2026, were aimed at strengthening fraud monitoring, improving identity management within the financial system and safeguarding the integrity of banking transactions, by strengthening identity verification and ensuring that BVN registration aligns with legally recognised age thresholds.

Thus, under the revised BVN framework, the apex bank introduced a stricter age requirement for BVN enrolment, limiting registration to 18-year-old individuals and above.

Also, under the new framework, customers will only be allowed to change the phone number associated with their BVN once. The CBN further stated: “Under the new guidelines, financial institutions are required to establish and maintain a temporary watch-list for BVNs linked to suspected fraudulent transactions reported within the banking system.

“A BVN may remain on this temporary Watch-list for a maximum period of twentyfour (24) hours, during which the BVN owner shall be contacted to provide clarification regarding the identified transaction(s).”

Launched on February 14, 2014, by the CBN in collaboration with the Bankers’ Committee, the NIBSS, and the German firm Dermalog, the BVN scheme was designed to capture the biometrics of all bank customers and provide each with a unique 11-digit identification number that can be verified across the Nigerian banking industry.

 


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CBN Warns against Rejection of N100 Banknotes

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has reaffirmed that the standard N100 banknote remains legal tender across the country, warning that its rejection by individuals, businesses and institutions violates the law.

CBN Warns against Rejection of N100 Banknotes

The clarification follows reports that some members of the public have refused to accept the standard N100 note over concerns about its legal tender status following the introduction of the commemorative N100 banknote issued to mark Nigeria’s centenary.

In a statement signed by Mrs. Hakama Sidi-Ali, acting director of Corporate Communications, the apex bank stressed that “both the commemorative N100 banknote and the standard N100 banknote are valid legal tender and must be accepted for all transactions nationwide.”

The CBN explained that the commemorative N100 note was introduced to celebrate Nigeria’s centenary and did not replace the existing standard N100 banknote.

The CBN cautioned individuals, businesses, financial institutions and other economic agents against rejecting the standard N100 note, noting that such action contravenes the provisions of the CBN Act and undermines public confidence in the national currency.

It warned that appropriate enforcement measures would be taken against any person or organisation found violating the law.

The apex bank reaffirmed its commitment to protecting the integrity of the naira, maintaining confidence in all duly issued banknotes and ensuring the smooth circulation of currency across the country.

The CBN also urged members of the public to continue accepting and transacting with all banknotes legally issued by the Bank and advised anyone seeking further clarification to use its official communication channels.


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GCR Upgrades FCMB Asset Mgt Rating on Disciplined Liquidity, Consistent Earnings

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FCMB Asset Management Limited (FCMBAM), the asset management arm of FCMB Group Plc, has received an upgrade to its national scale long-term and short-term issuer ratings of A(NG) and A1(NG), from A-(NG) and A2(NG), by GCR Ratings, a leading pan-African credit rating agency.

The outlook on the ratings remains stable, said the rating agency.

The upgrade is anchored on FCMBAM’s competitive resilience and financial discipline, alongside the strengthened credit profile of FCMB Group.

GCR highlighted FCMBAM’s decade-long track record of strong performance, well-established brand franchise, diversified product suite and robust distribution network as key drivers of its standalone strength.

These are further supported by consistent earnings growth and a disciplined, unleveraged balance sheet, it said.

According to GCR, FCMBAM’s competitive position is supported by “its relatively long track record, strong brand franchise, established product and geographical distribution network and cross-selling opportunities,” with the rating agency noting that FCMBAM ranks among the top five asset managers in Nigeria, with an estimated five per cent share of a fragmented market as of 31 December.

The Company’s financial performance underpinned the upgrade, with revenue growing by 30 per cent and operating cash flow increasing by 13 per cent, enabling the business to be fully funded without recourse to debt.

Liquidity strengthened further, with liquidity sources versus uses improving to 5x as of December 2025, from 3.6x a year earlier, while the EBITDA margin edged up to over 58 per cent.

Commenting on the upgrade, the Chief Executive Officer of FCMB Asset Management, James Ilori, said: “This upgrade is an important external validation of a strategy we have pursued with discipline over many years: building an investment franchise that performs reliably, governs itself rigorously, and earns trust in every market cycle. It speaks to the strength of our membership of FCMB Group and to a culture that holds itself to local and global standards of risk management and capital stewardship.

“As Nigeria’s asset management industry enters a new era of higher capital thresholds and rising investor expectations, we intend to lead from the front – ahead of regulatory timelines, ahead in digital transformation and ahead in the outcomes we deliver for the clients who trust us to assist them in achieving their investment objectives.”


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