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FXTM Emerging Currency Outlook 2016

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The year that was 2015 saw emerging currencies challenged by a resurgent USD powering up alongside the US economic recovery, which added to the challenges faced by commodity-linked emerging economies amid a global slowdown in Oil and Gold prices and additional concerns over how a slowing down China economy would impact the general sentiment towards the emerging markets.

The results were a clear downward trend for emerging currencies and we continued to highlight emerging market currency weakness as a global phenomenon throughout 2015.

The emerging market currencies which were the most heavily crushed during the year were those that belonged to economies dependent on commodity exports, therefore the Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysia Ringgit and Nigerian Naira fell victim to this.
 
The USDIDR plunged from 12428 in January to 14733 at the end of the year, while the Malaysian Ringgit exploded into astonishing weakness and the USDMYR sky-rocketed from 3.4950 to 4.4580 by the end of the year.

The Nigerian Naira appeared vulnerable to extreme losses as 2015 commenced, but a controversial move to ban USD deposits likely prevented further currency weakness and at least improved domestic demand for the Nigerian currency.

Another huge contributor behind the losses in the emerging market currencies globally were the intense concerns surrounding the China economy entering a deep slowdown.

From the second half of 2015 we pointed out that a slowing down China economy was not a problem for China itself, but for all those economies reliant on trade with China and this helped the weakness in the emerging markets accelerate as 2015 drew to a close.
 
From a domestic standpoint, the China economy is still performing and from recent data we can see that there is no hesitance from consumers to spend in retail, and I still believe that citizens living in China will only become concerned by economic weakness if it begins to hurt employment prospects.

The major bright spot for China in 2015 was the Yuan being added to the prestigious SDR basket from the IMF, which underpins how critical China has become to the global economy regardless of its own reduced GDP growth.

Despite the SDR introduction for the Yuan, the trend for the China currency will remain weak throughout 2016.

The SDR introduction is positive for understanding the longer-term prospects for China within the global economy, but it does not prevent the domestic economy from continuing to experience reduced growth in the short to mid-term.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will continue to take measures to improve economic fortunes for China, which we believe will include a gradual further depreciation of the Chinese currency.

This is a strategic move from the PBoC, with the aim of enhancing export competiveness and encouraging consumers to stop looking for products abroad and to instead consume domestically.

If however consumers still chose to import from overseas they will incur higher import costs which will improve another area of concern for the China economy, slowing inflation.

The only emerging market currencies that did not suffer steep losses in 2015 were those that were pegged to the USD, which became very supportive towards the UAE Dirham (AED).

Local equity markets have suffered due to depressed commodity prices as expected, however the losses were not as intense as they could have been due to the USD peg.

While the local economy will encounter lower growth with dramatically lower commodity prices, investors can use the benefits of the USD peg to consume products from abroad, such as with the Euro and Pound, to boost overseas consumption. 
 
As we look towards 2016, the major turning point for all the emerging currencies will in some ways be in response to higher interest rates from the United States, but in my view it will be how they respond to a new environment of reduced economic growth which will be important.

While it is largely true that the reasons behind the huge falls in the emerging market currencies were due to external factors, 2016 could see these external factors transform into internal and domestic pressures such as reduced spending power and reduced budgets that might lead to jobs being lost.

The continued depression in the commodity markets is also going to limit any potential for a recovery in fortunes. 

Slowing growth will continue to occur in China and will likely be a threat to India, although it is very possible that the proactive easing of monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of India might encourage borrowing domestically and help drive growth.
 
It is worth remembering that the central banks in China and India have been actively intervening to shore up their own economies through monetary easing and there will be some hope that this could help drive industry growth and that as commodity importers, the lower import costs should help create budget for investment elsewhere.
 
As long as the USD strength and commodity price weakness persists, emerging currencies will continue to experience downward pressures into the first quarter of 2016.

Another factor in play is a further increase in the US interest rates, which would likely lead to even more downward pressures on the Chinese Yuan, Nigerian Naira, Malaysian Ringgit, Indian Rupee and Indonesian Rupiah.

I do believe that as the emerging economies begin to encounter their own reduced domestic growth that this could weigh on outflows and threaten demand for their currencies even further.

Any black swan events in emerging economies or increased geo-political tensions in 2016 will also be more than enough to create uncertainties in the markets and this will impact both the emerging and Asian currencies.

The current threat of a possible black swan event would be removing the peg from the Saudi Arabian Riyal, which would create huge uncertainties throughout the GCC and Middle-East markets.

It would also further weaken the outlook for oil prices because market participants would see the move as the Saudi government choosing to devalue its currency rather than cut oil production.

However, it is important to stress that we do not expect such a move as of yet and this is more of a risk that investors could choose to monitor in case it impacts their investment portfolio.

By Jameel Ahmad, Chief Market Analyst at FXTM


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IGP Designates Banks National Security Asset, Orders Crackdown on Cyber Frauds

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Kayode Egbetokun, inspector-general of Police (IGP), has declared Nigeria’s banking industry a strategic national asset, ordering an immediate intelligence-led crackdown on cybercriminal networks, insider facilitators, and transnational financial crime syndicates threatening the stability of the financial system.

IGP Designates Banks National Security Asset, Orders Crackdown on Cyber Frauds

Kayode Egbetokun, inspector-general of Police (IGP),

Speaking at a strategic meeting with the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) and the Body of Bank Chief Executive Officers in Lagos, where he said the Nigeria Police Force was shifting from reactive policing to proactive dismantling of organised criminal structures targeting banks.

According to him, the financial sector remains central to national stability.

He said: “The Nigerian banking industry is not merely a driver of economic activity; it is a core component of our national stability architecture. The integrity, continuity, and resilience of the financial system are directly linked to public confidence, investor perception, and the credibility of Nigeria’s economic governance.”

In a major policy shift, Egbetokun announced that regular police officers would no longer be deployed for routine cash-in-transit escorts or non-essential VIP protective duties within the private sector.

He explained that the decision aligned with national policy direction and manpower optimisation within the Force, adding that the traditional model of conventional police deployment for banking sector protection was being reviewed and progressively restructured.

“This policy adjustment is not designed to diminish the security framework supporting the banking industry. Rather, it reflects a deliberate transition towards a more sustainable, professional, and institutionally governed model of security support,” he said.

Egbetokun warned that conventional risks such as armed robbery and cash-in-transit vulnerabilities, though still present, have been overtaken by more complex and technologically sophisticated threats.

“These threats are adaptive, technologically sophisticated, and often coordinated across borders. They include cyber-enabled fraud, identity compromise, insider facilitation, organised financial crime, and illicit financial flows,” he told the bankers.

The IGP stressed that disruptions to banking operations now carry international reputational consequences, citing global compliance standards set by the Financial Action Task Force FATF and Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) obligations.

He said: “In an era shaped by FATF standards, AML/CFT obligations, and heightened scrutiny of financial flows, the strength of a nation’s enforcement and security architecture is now directly relevant to investor confidence and market stability.”

The police noted that: “The speed and sophistication of cyber-enabled fraud illustrate the urgency of integration. Delayed reporting windows can render enforcement ineffective, while rapid escalation, evidence preservation, and coordinated response can significantly improve disruption, recovery, and prosecution outcomes.

“Modern financial crime operates at a pace that requires equally modern security coordination.”

Egbetokun disclosed that the Force had already intensified covert operations targeting kidnapping syndicates, illegal arms networks, and organised criminal enterprises whose activities threaten commercial stability.

He added that the Police were strengthening coordination with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC),  the Nigeria Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to ensure that criminal enterprises do not exploit gaps between enforcement, compliance, and oversight.

The IGP told the bankers that sustainable security cannot be achieved through episodic contact or fragmented interventions, calling for structured cooperation between law enforcement and financial institutions.

“Security is not merely the absence of crime; it is the presence of stability that enables productivity, investment, and growth. A secure banking environment supports savings mobilisation, credit expansion, financial inclusion, and the confidence of both domestic and international investors.

“When citizens trust financial institutions, participation in the formal economy increases. When investors perceive a stable internal security environment supported by credible enforcement, Nigeria becomes more bankable, more investable, and more competitive.

“The outcome of this meeting should not be limited to dialogue. It should produce structured liaison mechanisms between law enforcement and the banking sector, clear operational protocols for high-risk areas, joint capacity building, and lawful information-sharing.

“The Nigeria Police Force stands ready to work with the banking sector not merely as an enforcement institution, but as a strategic partner in safeguarding the integrity, stability, and international credibility of Nigeria’s financial architecture,” he said.

Earlier in his remarks, Oliver Alawuba, chairman of the Body of Bank Chief Executive Officers,  who acknowledged the Police boss for measures put in place to tackle insecurity in the country, highlighted the banking industry’s past support.

He said: “The Bankers’ Committee was responsible for the renovation of over 42 police stations that were destroyed during the EndSARS protests. We stepped in when police infrastructure was in ruins. Today, we expect that same urgency when our own infrastructure is under digital siege.”

Professor Pius Olarenwaju, president,  CIBN, on his part, painted a grim picture of an industry under silent assault, warning that the velocity of cyberattacks now outstrips the response capacity of traditional law enforcement.

“The banking sector plays a pivotal role in Nigeria’s economic development, and our critical functions can only flourish in a secure and stable environment. But we are fighting a war where the enemy no longer carries guns , they carry laptops and exploit system vulnerabilities in milliseconds,” he told the IGP.

Olarenwaju further stressed that the rapid digital transformation of financial services has created a security paradox.

“As we deepen financial inclusion and expand digital channels, we also expand the attack surface for cybercriminals. The same technology that empowers the unbanked also empowers fraudsters operating from jurisdictions where Nigerian law enforcement has no reach. This is the new reality, and we need the police to evolve with it,” he said.

Present at the occasion were Managing Directors and Chief Executive Officers of banks such as Union Bank, Signature Bank, Parallex Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Keystone Bank, Coronation Merchant Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank, United Bank for Africa, among others.

 

 


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Rashidat Adebisi Unveils Strategic Roadmap for Nigeria’s Insurance Sector under NIIRA 2025

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Following a landmark 21-year career in institutional finance, Rashidat Adebisi, the former Executive Director at AXA Mansard, has officially launched “The Re-Architecture Project.”

This strategic pivot aims to align Nigeria’s insurance and financial infrastructure with the federal government’s ambitious $1 trillion economy goal, positioning the sector as a critical driver of macro-economic stability.

As Nigeria navigates the complexities of the Nigeria Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA 2025), Adebisi identifies this moment as a “watershed” for the industry.

She argues that the path to a trillion-dollar economy requires more than just capital, it demands a total re-architecture of how financial systems interact with the informal economy, which currently accounts for over 60% of employment in Africa.

Macro-Economic Resilience as a National Imperative

The Re-Architecture Project reframes insurance from a transactional product into the “secret sauce” of a resilient economy.

Adebisi asserts that for Nigeria to achieve its macro-economic targets, the insurance industry must bridge the massive “protection gap,” as penetration currently remains below 3% across many African markets.

Insurance as an Economic Safety Net: “Insurance is the net that allows a nation to jump higher,” Adebisi stated.

She emphasizes that every decimal point in a financial model represents a business stabilized and a future secured, providing the essential foundation for macro-economic growth.

Infrastructure Beyond Capital: The project posits that Nigeria is not lacking capital but “invisible infrastructure”, specifically Trust, Access, and Regulatory Clarity.

NIIRA 2025: From Compliance to Competitive Advantage

Adebisi describes NIIRA 2025 as a vital structural reinforcement rather than regulatory friction. The Act’s focus on Capital Recalibration, Stronger Governance, and Consumer Protection is essential for building the institutional rigour required to support a $1 trillion GDP.

Recalibrating Foundations: The reform represents a necessary recalibration of the industry’s foundations while accelerating digital transformation.

Strategic Policy Fluency: “Those who view compliance as a burden will struggle; those who see it as a competitive advantage will thrive,” Adebisi noted, identifying policy fluency as a core leadership competency for the next decade.

Economic Visibility: Integrating the Informal Sector

A central pillar of the project is “Engineering Inclusive Ecosystems,” exemplified by the FileAm App. This initiative reimagines tax compliance as a digital utility for SMEs and informal entrepreneurs, moving them from economic invisibility into formal digital tax rails, insurance coverage, and credit ecosystems.

The Wealth Pipeline: By building digital identity and verifiable credentials, the project aims to turn compliance into credit history, and credit history into the capital access required for intergenerational wealth creation.

As a Financial Systems Architect, Adebisi’s blueprint for the next decade is governed by a singular core rule: Data-aware. Policy-conscious. Africa-focused.. The project calls on industry leaders and policymakers to move beyond incremental adoption toward designing interoperable ecosystems that can sustain the Africa of tomorrow.

“The future of finance in Africa will not be inherited. It will be architected,” Adebisi concluded. “It is our turn to build.”.

 

 


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NAICOM Targets Resilient, Global Competition Market in Insurance Sector Consolidation

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The National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) has unveiled a far-reaching reform agenda aimed at strengthening industry stability, improving consumer confidence, and positioning the sector to play more strategic role in national economic growth.

Speaking at the 2026 management retreat in Uyo, Olusegun Ayo Omosehin, commissioner for Insurance/CEO, NAICOM, described the initiative as a defining moment for the industry, stressing that the transformation drive is designed to modernise regulatory oversight, deepen market penetration, and build a more resilient and globally competitive insurance industry.

The renewed policy direction was unveiled at the Commission’s 2026 Management Retreat held in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, under the theme “Insurance Regulation: Reset, Reimagine, Refocus.”

Omosehin, described the retreat as a watershed moment in the Commission’s 29-year evolution, declaring that the regulator is embarking on a decisive transformation phase anchored on integrity, professionalism, accountability, and institutional unity.

He stressed that the reform agenda represents a deliberate shift away from outdated regulatory practices towards a modern, proactive, and impact-driven supervisory framework capable of strengthening market confidence and driving sustainable industry growth.

Omosehin explained that the retreat’s theme reflects a strategic call to action designed to reset legacy regulatory approaches, reimagine the untapped potential of Nigeria’s insurance market, and refocus regulatory strategies to deliver measurable economic value.

He further underscored the Commission’s strategic role in supporting the economic expansion blueprint of president Bola Ahmed Tinubu, noting that achieving Nigeria’s ambitious $1 trillion economic target requires a resilient, well-capitalized, and shock-resistant insurance sector capable of underwriting major risks, attracting investment inflows, and supporting long-term national development.

Central to the reform drive is NAICOM’s ongoing recapitalization programme, which the commissioner described as one of the most far-reaching regulatory interventions in the history of Nigeria’s insurance industry.

He clarified that the initiative goes far beyond capital injection, stressing that it is designed to strengthen insurers’ financial stability, enhance consumer protection, deepen insurance penetration across underserved segments, reinforce the industry’s capacity to withstand economic shocks, and rebuild public trust in insurance as a credible financial safety net.

He emphasized that the credibility of the exercise will be measured by its transparency, fairness, and professional execution, warning that the Commission will tolerate no ambiguity, compromise, or preferential treatment in the process.

Addressing management staff, Omosehin delivered a firm directive for internal discipline and cohesion, urging leaders within the Commission to uphold integrity as a guiding principle, professionalism as an operational compass, and transparency as a non-negotiable regulatory standard.

He stressed that NAICOM’s effectiveness depends on institutional collaboration, warning that departmental silos and bureaucratic rivalries undermine regulatory efficiency.

In a symbolic demonstration of commitment, management staff collectively pledged to uphold fairness, accountability, and global best practices in executing the recapitalization roadmap and safeguarding the future of the insurance sector.

The Commissioner also outlined key strategic priorities expected to reposition the industry, including strengthening regulatory oversight, ensuring disciplined execution of the recapitalization framework, deepening stakeholder engagement, expanding institutional capacity in risk-based supervision and data analytics, driving market development through digital innovation, strengthening organizational culture, and reinforcing policyholder protection mechanisms.

Omosehin also invoked an African proverb to emphasize the importance of unity and collective resolve, noting that sustainable transformation of the insurance sector can only be achieved through shared commitment among regulators, operators, and stakeholders.

He reaffirmed NAICOM’s determination to build an insurance industry that is resilient, globally competitive, trusted by policyholders, and fully aligned with Nigeria’s long-term economic transformation agenda.


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