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FXTM Hints on Emerging Currency Outlook 2016

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The year that was 2015 saw emerging currencies challenged by a resurgent USD powering up alongside the US economic recovery, which added to the challenges faced by commodity-linked emerging economies amid a global slowdown in Oil and Gold prices and additional concerns over how a slowing down China economy would impact the general sentiment towards the emerging markets.

The results were a clear downward trend for emerging currencies and we continued to highlight emerging market currency weakness as a global phenomenon throughout 2015.

The emerging market currencies which were the most heavily crushed during the year were those that belonged to economies dependent on commodity exports, therefore the Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysia Ringgit and Nigerian Naira fell victim to this.

The USDIDR plunged from 12428 in January to 14733 at the end of the year, while the Malaysian Ringgit exploded into astonishing weakness and the USDMYR sky-rocketed from 3.4950 to 4.4580 by the end of the year.

The Nigerian Naira appeared vulnerable to extreme losses as 2015 commenced, but a controversial move to ban USD deposits likely prevented further currency weakness and at least improved domestic demand for the Nigerian currency.

Another huge contributor behind the losses in the emerging market currencies globally were the intense concerns surrounding the China economy entering a deep slowdown.

From the second half of 2015 we pointed out that a slowing down China economy was not a problem for China itself, but for all those economies reliant on trade with China and this helped the weakness in the emerging markets accelerate as 2015 drew to a close.

From a domestic standpoint, the China economy is still performing and from recent data we can see that there is no hesitance from consumers to spend in retail, and I still believe that citizens living in China will only become concerned by economic weakness if it begins to hurt employment prospects.

The major bright spot for China in 2015 was the Yuan being added to the prestigious SDR basket from the IMF, which underpins how critical China has become to the global economy regardless of its own reduced GDP growth.

Despite the SDR introduction for the Yuan, the trend for the China currency will remain weak throughout 2016.

The SDR introduction is positive for understanding the longer-term prospects for China within the global economy, but it does not prevent the domestic economy from continuing to experience reduced growth in the short to mid-term.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will continue to take measures to improve economic fortunes for China, which we believe will include a gradual further depreciation of the Chinese currency.

This is a strategic move from the PBoC, with the aim of enhancing export competiveness and encouraging consumers to stop looking for products abroad and to instead consume domestically.

If however consumers still chose to import from overseas they will incur higher import costs which will improve another area of concern for the China economy, slowing inflation.

The only emerging market currencies that did not suffer steep losses in 2015 were those that were pegged to the USD, which became very supportive towards the UAE Dirham (AED).

Local equity markets have suffered due to depressed commodity prices as expected, however the losses were not as intense as they could have been due to the USD peg.

While the local economy will encounter lower growth with dramatically lower commodity prices, investors can use the benefits of the USD peg to consume products from abroad, such as with the Euro and Pound, to boost overseas consumption. 

As we look towards 2016, the major turning point for all the emerging currencies will in some ways be in response to higher interest rates from the United States, but in my view it will be how they respond to a new environment of reduced economic growth which will be important.

While it is largely true that the reasons behind the huge falls in the emerging market currencies were due to external factors, 2016 could see these external factors transform into internal and domestic pressures such as reduced spending power and reduced budgets that might lead to jobs being lost.

The continued depression in the commodity markets is also going to limit any potential for a recovery in fortunes. 

Slowing growth will continue to occur in China and will likely be a threat to India, although it is very possible that the proactive easing of monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of India might encourage borrowing domestically and help drive growth.

It is worth remembering that the central banks in China and India have been actively intervening to shore up their own economies through monetary easing and there will be some hope that this could help drive industry growth and that as commodity importers, the lower import costs should help create budget for investment elsewhere.

As long as the USD strength and commodity price weakness persists, emerging currencies will continue to experience downward pressures into the first quarter of 2016.

Another factor in play is a further increase in the US interest rates, which would likely lead to even more downward pressures on the Chinese Yuan, Nigerian Naira, Malaysian Ringgit, Indian Rupee and Indonesian Rupiah.

I do believe that as the emerging economies begin to encounter their own reduced domestic growth that this could weigh on outflows and threaten demand for their currencies even further.

Any black swan events in emerging economies or increased geo-political tensions in 2016 will also be more than enough to create uncertainties in the markets and this will impact both the emerging and Asian currencies.

The current threat of a possible black swan event would be removing the peg from the Saudi Arabian Riyal, which would create huge uncertainties throughout the GCC and Middle-East markets.

It would also further weaken the outlook for oil prices because market participants would see the move as the Saudi government choosing to devalue its currency rather than cut oil production.

However, it is important to stress that we do not expect such a move as of yet and this is more of a risk that investors could choose to monitor in case it impacts their investment portfolio.

Jameel Ahmad is the Chief Market Analyst at FXTM
 


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E-Financial

SEC Bars Dangote Refinery IPO Adverts

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has banned the marketing and promotion of a purported initial public offering (IPO) by Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals FZE,.

SEC Bars Dangote Refinery IPO Adverts

It further warned that no application for such offer has been filed with or approved by the regulator.

In a public notice issued on Tuesday, the Commission said it had become aware of advertisements, flyers, digital banners and targeted electronic mails circulating on social media platforms and investment channels concerning a supposed securities offering by the refinery.

The SEC expressed concern over the involvement of some Registered Capital Market Operators (CMOs) in what it described as an “unwholesome and manipulative exercise” of actively soliciting advance subscriptions for an offering that has not been presented to the Commission.

According to the regulator, “No application for the registration of an IPO or public offer of shares of the Refinery has been filed with or approved by the Commission.”

The Commission added that the ongoing pre-marketing activities were “capable of misleading investors, distorting market expectations, creating information asymmetry and generally undermining the integrity of the capital market.”

It further stated that the marketing campaign and invitations to “create accounts”, “pre-fund,” or “secure guaranteed allocations” amounted to market manipulation and constituted “serious violation of the Investments and Securities Act.”

Consequently, the Commission directed all Registered Capital Market Operators, particularly stockbrokers and digital platform promoters, to immediately stop all promotional activities.

The SEC ordered them to “cease with immediate effect from publishing, reposting, or distributing any promotional material, flyer, or commentary relating to the acquisition or allocation of shares in the Refinery.”

It also directed operators to “remove or take down all such unauthorized marketing materials from websites, social media handles (including X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook etc.), and messaging groups within twenty-four (24) hours of this notice.”

The regulator further instructed operators to desist from accepting deposits, commitments, account openings or expressions of interest from investors for the purported public offering and to “reverse and refund all funds already collected in connection with this purported offering to clients within twenty-four (24) hours of this notice.”

The Commission warned that defaulters would face sanctions as non-compliance would attract penalties under the Investments and Securities Act, 2025 and the SEC Rules and Regulations.

Advising investors to exercise caution, the SEC said members of the public should “rely only on formal, official pronouncements issued directly by the Commission through its official channels.”

It warned that “all such high-pressure marketing tactics, or transfer of funds to any operator for ‘pre-IPO’ placement should be ignored as they did not receive the Commission’s approval.”

The Commission assured that if it eventually receives and clears an application for a public offering by the refinery, an approved prospectus would be made available to investors in line with the provisions of the Investments and Securities Act, 2025.


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Fidelity Bank Trains Exporters on AfCFTA Opportunities, Non-oil Export Growth

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Fidelity Bank Plc has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Nigeria’s economic diversification agenda through capacity building and export development, as it hosted the 19th edition of its Export Management Programme (EMP) at the Lagos Business School (LBS), Ajah, Lagos recently.

Fidelity Bank Trains Exporters on AfCFTA Opportunities, Non-oil Export Growth

L-R: Relationship Manager, Fidelity Bank Plc, Murtala Muhammed Road Branch, Kano, Victor Ngwu; Export Management Programme (EMP 19) participant, Abayomi Adewuyi; Facilitator, Gemma Ejiofor; Senior Fellow and Head, Department of Organisational Behaviour and Human Resources Mgt., Lagos Business School (LBS), Dr. Uche Attoh; Director, Export Management Programme, LBS, Prof. Frank Ojadi; and Team Lead, Export & Agriculture, Fidelity Bank Plc, Emmanuel Nwalor, during the closing ceremony of the 19th edition of the Fidelity Bank Export Management Programme (EMP 19) held recently at Lagos Business School, Lagos.

Tagged EMP 19, the programme is an intense hands-on export management workshop, organized as a partnership between Fidelity Bank, Lagos Business School and Nigerian Export Promotion Council, brought together entrepreneurs, professionals, regulators and aspiring exporters for intensive training designed to equip participants with the knowledge, skills and networks required to compete successfully in international markets.

Speaking at the closing ceremony, Divisional Head, Export and Agriculture, Fidelity Bank Plc, Isaiah Ndukwe, said the bank remains focused on empowering Nigerian businesses to leverage emerging opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and expand the country’s non-oil export base.

“At Fidelity Bank, we recognize that capacity building is critical to unlocking Nigeria’s export potential. Through the Export Management Programme, we are equipping businesses with practical knowledge, market intelligence and strategic insights required to compete successfully in regional and global markets,” Ndukwe said.

“As AfCFTA continues to open new frontiers for trade across Africa, our goal is to ensure that Nigerian exporters are adequately prepared to seize these opportunities and contribute meaningfully to the country’s economic diversification agenda,” he added.

Nwalor further noted that the bank remains committed to providing exporters with the financial solutions, advisory support and strategic partnerships necessary to expand their businesses beyond Nigeria’s borders.

Also speaking, Director of the Export Management Programme at Lagos Business School, Professor Frank Ojadi, highlighted the need for continuous capacity development as international trade continues to evolve.

“The export market is always evolving. There are changes in policies, improvements in processes and increasing interest from businesses. These developments make it necessary to build the capabilities of our people to compete effectively in export markets,” Ojadi said.

According to him, this year’s programme placed significant emphasis on AfCFTA, exposing participants to both the fundamentals and practical aspects of leveraging the continental trade agreement for business growth.

“Many businesses are still learning how to take advantage of AfCFTA. Through this programme, participants gained practical insights that will help them navigate opportunities across African markets and beyond,” he added.

In his remarks, Senior Fellow and Head of the Department of Organisational Behaviour and Human Resources Management at Lagos Business School, Dr. Uche Attoh, emphasized the importance of negotiation and dispute resolution skills in international trade.

“It is negotiation that enables businesses to establish deals, while arbitration helps resolve disputes when they arise. Once participants understand the principles, they can apply them in any business environment, whether in Africa, Europe or America,” Attoh said.

Participants described the programme as impactful and transformative. Assistant Director at the Nigerian Shippers’ Council, Obinna Oforum, said the training strengthened his resolve to become an “export champion”.

Similarly, Chief Superintendent of Customs, Orji Samuel, praised Fidelity Bank and Lagos Business School for subsidizing the programme and creating an enabling platform for practical learning, noting that the knowledge gained would help participants navigate export challenges and unlock new business opportunities.

The Export Management Programme is Fidelity Bank’s flagship capacity-building initiative aimed at developing export-ready businesses and professionals capable of driving Nigeria’s non-oil export growth. Through strategic partnerships and targeted interventions, the Bank continues to play a leading role in supporting businesses, facilitating trade and creating pathways for sustainable economic development.

Ranked among the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank Plc is a full-fledged Commercial Deposit Money Bank serving more than 10 million customers through digital banking channels, its 255 business offices in Nigeria and United Kingdom subsidiary, FidBank UK Limited.

The Bank is a recipient of multiple local and international awards, including the 2025 Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN) Innovation Award for MSME support; Best Retail and SME Bank Award from Independent Newspapers; Best Bank for Export & Trade Finance and Most Innovative Bank of the Year at the 2025 BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards; and Nigeria’s Best Private Bank at the 2025 Euromoney Awards. The Bank also received the inaugural Most Improved Commercial Bank of the Year award by Nairametrics, the SME Bank of the Year award by NewsDirect, and the Straight-Through Processing (STP) Excellence Award by Citi Group, in addition to recognition by Global Brands Magazine for Excellence in Community Empowerment.


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FG Engages Banks on RevOp, New Digital Platform for Revenue Generation

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Federal government has engaged the banking community in Abuja to deepen understanding of the Revenue Optimisation Assurance Platform (RevOp), a digital platform designed to improve revenue generation, reduce leakages, and enhance public sector accountability.

FG Engages Banks on RevOp, New Digital Platform for Revenue Generation

Mr Taiwo Oyedele, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the Economy, told RevOp sensitisation workshop, organised by the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) in Abuja, that RevOp is a centralised digital revenue collection and monitoring system designed to modernise Nigeria’s public finance operations.

Oyedele, who was represented by Mr Mohammed Danjuma, permanent secretary, Special Duties, explained that the platform provides a real-time, automated framework for all federal agencies to raise, collect, and report revenues, replacing fragmented manual processes that have plagued revenue collection for decades.

He reiterated the government’s commitment to improving revenue generation, enhancing transparency, strengthening accountability, and leveraging technology to drive efficiency across public financial management processes.

“RevOp serves as a critical tool in the government’s drive to improve revenue administration, reduce leakages, and enhance public sector accountability,” he said.

According to him, a lot had been achieved since the inception and implementation of the platform and that the successes were not without challenges.

He identified one of the challenges as limited awareness among some banking channels and frontline officers.

The minister explained that some banking channels are not familiar with RevOp, its purpose, or the procedural requirements to support transaction processes through the platform.

“These challenges, though operational in nature, have significant impacts on the overall customer experience and effectiveness of the initiative. This is precisely why we are here today,” he said.

The minister said that the success of RevOp would not be achieved by government alone, adding that it required strong collaboration among all stakeholders, particularly banking institutions, which serve as critical collection and service channels.

He explained that the banking institutions’ role extends beyond merely collecting or processing payments to ensuring that government revenue collection processes are efficient and user-friendly.

“Today’s sensitisation session has, therefore, been organised to deepen understanding of the platform, clarify operational processes, address concerns, and establish stronger communication channels between the project team and participating financial institutions.

“We expect that the knowledge shared here will cascade throughout your respective organisations, especially to branch operations, customer service personnel, and tellers who interact directly with customers on a daily basis,” he said.

Oyedele said the ministry remained committed to working closely with all stakeholders to address identified challenges and continuously improve the platform.

In his speech, Dr. Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, accountant general of the Federation, said that the revenue optimisation portal had been adopted as a strategic platform for improving revenue collection, reconciliation, monitoring, and reporting.

Ogunjimi, represented by Mr Felix Ogundairo, his chief of staff, explained that the platform was designed to provide greater visibility into government revenue, eliminate leakages, improve compliance, and support informed decision-making through real-time data and analytics.

“This engagement, therefore, provides an opportunity for us to discuss implementation challenges, align expectations, clarify operational issues, and strengthen the partnership necessary for the success of the application,” he said.

In his remarks, Mr. Idris Dosunmu, RevOp Product Manager, explained that the platform unifies billing, payment and settlement under one platform and that every transaction passes through secure connections, ensuring complete transparency from bill creation to treasury receipt.

“This will ensure that every penny due to the federal government goes into the coffers of the government,” Dosunmu said.


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