E-Financial
FXTM Hints on Emerging Currency Outlook 2016
The year that was 2015 saw emerging currencies challenged by a resurgent USD powering up alongside the US economic recovery, which added to the challenges faced by commodity-linked emerging economies amid a global slowdown in Oil and Gold prices and additional concerns over how a slowing down China economy would impact the general sentiment towards the emerging markets.
The results were a clear downward trend for emerging currencies and we continued to highlight emerging market currency weakness as a global phenomenon throughout 2015.
The emerging market currencies which were the most heavily crushed during the year were those that belonged to economies dependent on commodity exports, therefore the Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysia Ringgit and Nigerian Naira fell victim to this.
The USDIDR plunged from 12428 in January to 14733 at the end of the year, while the Malaysian Ringgit exploded into astonishing weakness and the USDMYR sky-rocketed from 3.4950 to 4.4580 by the end of the year.
The Nigerian Naira appeared vulnerable to extreme losses as 2015 commenced, but a controversial move to ban USD deposits likely prevented further currency weakness and at least improved domestic demand for the Nigerian currency.
Another huge contributor behind the losses in the emerging market currencies globally were the intense concerns surrounding the China economy entering a deep slowdown.
From the second half of 2015 we pointed out that a slowing down China economy was not a problem for China itself, but for all those economies reliant on trade with China and this helped the weakness in the emerging markets accelerate as 2015 drew to a close.
From a domestic standpoint, the China economy is still performing and from recent data we can see that there is no hesitance from consumers to spend in retail, and I still believe that citizens living in China will only become concerned by economic weakness if it begins to hurt employment prospects.
The major bright spot for China in 2015 was the Yuan being added to the prestigious SDR basket from the IMF, which underpins how critical China has become to the global economy regardless of its own reduced GDP growth.
Despite the SDR introduction for the Yuan, the trend for the China currency will remain weak throughout 2016.
The SDR introduction is positive for understanding the longer-term prospects for China within the global economy, but it does not prevent the domestic economy from continuing to experience reduced growth in the short to mid-term.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will continue to take measures to improve economic fortunes for China, which we believe will include a gradual further depreciation of the Chinese currency.
This is a strategic move from the PBoC, with the aim of enhancing export competiveness and encouraging consumers to stop looking for products abroad and to instead consume domestically.
If however consumers still chose to import from overseas they will incur higher import costs which will improve another area of concern for the China economy, slowing inflation.
The only emerging market currencies that did not suffer steep losses in 2015 were those that were pegged to the USD, which became very supportive towards the UAE Dirham (AED).
Local equity markets have suffered due to depressed commodity prices as expected, however the losses were not as intense as they could have been due to the USD peg.
While the local economy will encounter lower growth with dramatically lower commodity prices, investors can use the benefits of the USD peg to consume products from abroad, such as with the Euro and Pound, to boost overseas consumption.
As we look towards 2016, the major turning point for all the emerging currencies will in some ways be in response to higher interest rates from the United States, but in my view it will be how they respond to a new environment of reduced economic growth which will be important.
While it is largely true that the reasons behind the huge falls in the emerging market currencies were due to external factors, 2016 could see these external factors transform into internal and domestic pressures such as reduced spending power and reduced budgets that might lead to jobs being lost.
The continued depression in the commodity markets is also going to limit any potential for a recovery in fortunes.
Slowing growth will continue to occur in China and will likely be a threat to India, although it is very possible that the proactive easing of monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of India might encourage borrowing domestically and help drive growth.
It is worth remembering that the central banks in China and India have been actively intervening to shore up their own economies through monetary easing and there will be some hope that this could help drive industry growth and that as commodity importers, the lower import costs should help create budget for investment elsewhere.
As long as the USD strength and commodity price weakness persists, emerging currencies will continue to experience downward pressures into the first quarter of 2016.
Another factor in play is a further increase in the US interest rates, which would likely lead to even more downward pressures on the Chinese Yuan, Nigerian Naira, Malaysian Ringgit, Indian Rupee and Indonesian Rupiah.
I do believe that as the emerging economies begin to encounter their own reduced domestic growth that this could weigh on outflows and threaten demand for their currencies even further.
Any black swan events in emerging economies or increased geo-political tensions in 2016 will also be more than enough to create uncertainties in the markets and this will impact both the emerging and Asian currencies.
The current threat of a possible black swan event would be removing the peg from the Saudi Arabian Riyal, which would create huge uncertainties throughout the GCC and Middle-East markets.
It would also further weaken the outlook for oil prices because market participants would see the move as the Saudi government choosing to devalue its currency rather than cut oil production.
However, it is important to stress that we do not expect such a move as of yet and this is more of a risk that investors could choose to monitor in case it impacts their investment portfolio.
Jameel Ahmad is the Chief Market Analyst at FXTM
KudiWave Technologies Limited has raised questions over the transfer of N750,369,439.04 from its account with PalmPay Limited, seeking clarification on the timing, destination and circumstances surrounding the transaction.
In a statement, on Tuesday, KudiWave said the disputed debit was recorded on July 15, 2026, under the narration “Judicial Adjustment”.
The company said it was not notified of, or did not authorise, the transaction.
According to KudiWave, it had already approached the Federal High Court in Lagos to challenge an earlier order affecting its account.Politics News Service
The company said its application, filed on July 3, sought to set aside the June 29 order and stay its execution.
“The motion was heard on July 13 and adjourned for ruling. Two days later, the N750.37 million was transferred out of the account,” the company said.
KudiWave further stated that PalmPay had been served with the application before the July 15 transaction and did not file a counter-affidavit opposing the application.
The company also raised questions about an earlier movement of funds on July 11, which it said became apparent after access to the account was restored.
According to KudiWave, its account records showed that the funds were moved on July 11 and returned the same day before another transfer was recorded on July 15.
“PalmPay moved the money on July 11 and sent it back that same day. They then took it out again on July 15. When the account was opened, we saw how the money had been moved around while the account was frozen and we were not aware of it,” the company said.
The dispute followed an ex parte order obtained by the Inspector General of Police through officers of the Police Special Fraud Unit in Ikoyi, which placed restrictions on accounts belonging to several parties, including KudiWave, pending investigation.
The restriction was subsequently implemented on KudiWave’s account with PalmPay.
Further proceedings were filed under Suit No. FHC/L/CS/795/2026 before Justice Ibrahim Ahmad Kala of the Federal High Court, Lagos Judicial Division, in relation to funds standing to KudiWave’s credit.
KudiWave said the court granted an application on June 29.
The company subsequently challenged the order, arguing that it had not been properly served with the processes leading to the decision and had not been effectively brought before the court when the application was heard.
According to KudiWave, Justice Kala considered the company’s subsequent application on July 22 and set aside, vacated and discharged the June 29 order.
The company said the court also directed that the restrictions placed on its account be removed.
KudiWave further stated that the court examined the circumstances surrounding the purported service of the processes and raised questions about whether leaving documents at a gate, without sufficient indication of the company’s specific address, amounted to effective service.
The company quoted the court as describing the circumstances surrounding the service as “very curious”.
KudiWave also said the ruling recognised the court’s inherent power to set aside its own decision where circumstances justify such intervention.
The July 22 ruling came after the July 15 transfer.
KudiWave, however, said the transaction should be considered in the context of the fact that the June 29 order was already being challenged and that its application had been argued before the court two days earlier.
The company has also questioned the destination of the funds.
According to KudiWave, its understanding of the June 29 order was that the identified funds were to be transferred to a designated Police Recovery Account associated with the Police Special Fraud Unit.
The company said its account records instead indicated that the N750,369,439.04 was transferred to an Access Bank business account.
KudiWave said it wants clarification on the identity of the beneficiary, the instruction that authorised the transfer and the basis for the July 11 movement of funds.
“The issue for us is simple. If the order identified a particular account for the funds, there must be a clear explanation of why our records show the money going elsewhere and who ultimately received it,” the company said.
KudiWave said it was seeking a reconciliation of transactions carried out on its account during the restriction period and was considering further legal and regulatory steps in relation to the disputed transactions.
The company also said that, during earlier efforts to resolve the restriction, Barrister Prince Oko, its Company Secretary, met with officers of the Police Special Fraud Unit.
KudiWave alleged that a request for N50 million was made in connection with efforts to remove the restriction and said the company rejected the request.
The allegation has not been independently established and has not been determined by a court.
KudiWave maintained that its concerns do not relate to compliance with lawful court orders but to whether the transactions involving its funds were carried out in accordance with the terms of the relevant judicial directive.
The company said it wants clarification on the July 11 transactions, the subsequent N750,369,439.04 transfer on July 15, the destination of the funds and the circumstances surrounding the transactions.
Credit demand for house purchases by Nigerian households rose to 9.6 index points in the second quarter of 2026 (Q2 2026), indicating increased borrowing for personal home acquisition.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) disclosed this in its Credit Conditions Survey Report for Q2 2026, which showed an overall increase in credit availability across secured, unsecured and corporate lending during the period.
The apex bank said lenders also recorded lower default rates across major lending categories.
According to the report, credit demand increased to 15.1 index points for secured lending and 15.2 index points for corporate lending, while demand for unsecured lending remained subdued at -1.2 index points.
Within the household segment, consumer loan demand increased to 11.2 index points, while credit for house purchases rose to 9.6 index points.
Mortgage and re-mortgage lending also increased to 13.3 index points, while demand for small business lending to households climbed to 26.4 index points.
For unsecured household credit, demand for overdrafts and personal loans rose to 7.9 index points, while credit card lending declined to -2.0 index points.
In the corporate sector, credit demand expanded across different business categories.
The report showed that demand rose to 26.5 index points among small businesses, 25.5 index points for medium-sized Private Non-Financial Corporations (PNFCs), and 8.9 index points for large PNFCs.
Credit demand from Other Financial Corporations (OFCs), however, remained unchanged at 0.0 index points.
The CBN further reported that commercial banks observed a broad-based decline in default rates across secured and unsecured loans.
Default rates also declined across corporate borrower categories, including small businesses, medium-sized and large PNFCs, as well as OFCs.
The latest figures indicate stronger household and business appetite for credit during the quarter, particularly for housing, consumer needs and small business activities, amid an overall improvement in lending conditions.
Federal Ministry of Finance has halted enforcement of about N680 million in disputed fees imposed by the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) on NICON Insurance Limited and Nigeria Reinsurance Corporation (Nig Re) as part of the ongoing insurance industry recapitalisation exercise.
The Ministry also directed NAICOM to suspend its demand that the two companies transfer their entire recapitalisation funds into an escrow account with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), pending determination of a petition challenging the legality of the charges and the directive.
The intervention followed a July 27, 2026 petition by NICON and Nig Re over what they described as unlawful fees and regulatory demands arising from the implementation of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025.
In a letter to the Commissioner for Insurance, Raymond Omachi, permanent secretary, Federal Ministry of Finance, on behalf of Taiwo Oyedele, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the Economy, requested that NAICOM provide a detailed response and legal justification for the disputed requirements.
The Ministry specifically directed the Commission to suspend enforcement of the contested processing and verification fees, the one per cent Capital Injection Fee, and the directive requiring the companies to transfer their full recapitalisation funds to a CBN escrow account.
The dispute centres on NAICOM’s assessment of a one per cent fee on capital injected by operators, alongside additional processing and verification charges prescribed under Appendix 2 of the Commission’s Minimum Capital Requirement Guidelines.
According to the petition, the combined assessments amounted to N305 million for NICON and N375 million for Nig Re, bringing the disputed charges to N680 million.
The companies are also challenging what they described as an unconstitutional requirement to transfer more than the statutory proportion of their recapitalisation funds to the CBN.
They contend that Section 16(3) of NIIRA 2025 provides for a 10 per cent statutory deposit, and not the transfer of the entire capital injection into an escrow account.
The companies told the Ministry that they had already met the July 31, 2026 recapitalisation deadline.
NICON said it injected N420 billion, while Nig Re injected N30 billion into Mudaraba Term Deposit accounts with Lotus Bank Limited. The companies maintained that the amounts exceeded their adjusted recapitalisation requirements of N16 billion and N28 billion, respectively.
They further stated that they had deposited N42.5 billion and N43.5 billion respectively with the CBN, in compliance with the statutory deposit requirement under Section 16(3) of the new law.
The companies also disclosed that they had made initial payments of N480 million and N75 million, respectively, in fees.
The Finance Ministry’s directive effectively places the disputed charges and escrow requirement on hold while NAICOM is expected to justify the legal and regulatory basis for its actions.
The intervention could have wider implications for the insurance industry’s recapitalisation programme, particularly as operators face regulatory deadlines to strengthen their capital base under the new insurance law.
The controversy also raises questions about the extent to which regulatory guidelines can impose additional financial obligations on operators beyond those expressly provided for under the enabling legislation.
NAICOM is now expected to respond to the Ministry’s request and explain the statutory basis for the one per cent capital injection fee, the additional processing and verification charges, and the requirement for the full capital injection to be transferred into a CBN escrow account.
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