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FXTM: Mixed Messages On U.S. Dollar & Who Should You Listen To

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FXTM Chief Market Strategist Hussein Sayed comments on the on-going developments in Gold.

The U.S. dollar continued to recover from a five-month low against the Yen early Tuesday, after testing 108.11 yesterday.

Comments from U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin, stating that a strong dollar is good in the long run, offset previous remarks from President Trump who last week said that the dollar is getting too strong and that it is hard to compete when other countries devalue their currency.

However, Mnuchin also agreed that the dollar’s strength in the short run is hurting exports and the economy; based on such mixed signals, traders are finding it difficult to choose on which side to take a trade.

Since both the U.S. President and Secretary of the Treasury agree that the greenback is overvalued in the short-term perspective, dollar bulls shouldn’t get overexcited on the long run views.

Instead, I would suggest ignoring what politicians are claiming for the time being and to focus on what most recent economic data is saying:

 •    U.S. inflation expectations fell to their lowest levels in 2017

•    Retail sales fell for a second month in March

•    Consumer prices dropped for the first time in over a year

•    Atlanta Fed cuts U.S. first quarter GDP to 0.5%

•    U.S. non-farm payrolls marked the smallest gain since May 2016

 This set of most recent economic hard data indicates that the robust soft data reflecting consumer and business sentiment did not translate into spending, investing and hiring. There’s a clear gap here and such a divergence may not last for long. Either hard data should agree with sentiment surveys, or optimism will start to fade.

Mnuchin sent another signal on tax reforms on Monday, saying that expecting one before August is highly aggressive and not realistic. Investor and traders are likely to start questioning whether Trump will be able to deliver on tax reform and stimulus but so far most signs are negative, thus another negative factor affecting the USD.

Expectations of a wider divergence in monetary policy also took a hit. Markets expectations for a June rate hike have fallen below 50%, down from more than 60% just a week ago according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Moreover, chances of two rate hikes in 2017 dropped below 40%, so traders betting on interest rates differentials should tweak their model assumptions.

Overall, there’s a high chance that the dollar could have already topped out for the year, but whether more declines will be seen relies heavily on fundamental drivers, not verbal interventions.

I would prefer selling the rallies than buying the dips on the short-run until we see solid evidence of U.S. fiscal stimulus.


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E-Financial

FIRS says MOU with DGFIP Won’t Compromise Nigeria Tax Data Sovereignty

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The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has clarified that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) recently signed with France’s Direction Générale des Finances Publiques (DGFiP) is a strictly technical assistance and capacity-building framework.

The clarification comes after talks of concerns that the MOU  is a means for foreign interests to gain control over Nigeria’s sovereign tax data.

On Thursday, the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) signed an MoU with France’s Direction Générale des Finances Publiques (DGFiP).

“At no point does it grant France access to Nigerian tax data, digital infrastructure, or operational control of our systems. All Nigerian laws regarding data protection, sovereignty, and cybersecurity remain fully in force, and the MoU includes robust confidentiality and data protection provisions,” Umar Ahmed, director, Intergovernmental Affairs, Federal Inland Revenue Service, said in a recent release.

The DGFiP is one of the world’s most sophisticated tax administrations, with over 100 years of institutional experience, a workforce exceeding 90,000 professionals, and globally recognised expertise in digital tax systems, institutional governance, taxpayer services, and public finance management.

Ahmed said that the partnership is advisory, non-intrusive, and mutually beneficial, designed to strengthen FIRS’ institutional capacity as it transitions into the Nigerian Revenue Service (NRS).

“The collaboration provides Nigeria with a unique opportunity to learn from international best practices in workforce management, digital transformation, tax policy development, and regional cooperation, while ensuring that Nigeria retains full control over its tax administration and data,” he said.

Ahmed said that local technology providers are not being sidelined; FIRS continues to engage and collaborate with Nigerian innovators, including NIBSS, Interswitch, PayStack, and Flutterwave.

“The MoU is not intended to deliver technical services, but rather to provide capacity-building, advisory support, and knowledge sharing based on DGFiP’s extensive institutional experience. The collaboration focuses on institutional strengthening, workforce development, digital transformation guidance, taxpayer education, policy modernisation, and regional integration—all fully aligned with Nigeria’s sovereignty and national interests,” he said.

The director said that the service is far from compromising national control. This agreement represents a strategic initiative to modernise Nigeria’s tax administration, enhance institutional capacity, and strengthen the country’s long-term economic resilience.

“Nigeria remains fully in command of its tax systems, data, and policy direction. FIRS remains steadfast in its commitment to transparency, professionalism, and collaboration in the pursuit of national development,” Ahmed said.


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Reps Passes Bill for Single Six-Year Tenure for CBN Governor, Deputies

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House of Representatives yesterday passed second reading a bill seeking to introduce a single, non-renewable six-year tenure for the Governor and Deputy Governors of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), challenging the current CBN Act 2007 that allows an initial five-year term with reappointment option.

Reps Passes Bill for Single Six-Year Tenure for CBN Governor, Deputies

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The legislation, jointly sponsored by Jesse Okey Joe Onuakalusi (Oshodi/Isolo Federal Constituency) and Majority Leader Julius Ihonvbere, proposes sweeping reforms to modernise the apex bank’s governance, unify the exchange rate system, ban foreign currencies for domestic transactions except via authorised channels, and align operations with international best practices.

Key provisions include separating the roles of CBN Governor and Board Chairman to curb power concentration, capping Ways and Means advances at 10 per cent of the previous year’s actual revenue to check inflationary financing, mandating 90 days’ notice with impact assessment and National Assembly briefing for currency redesign, and enhancing the Monetary Policy Committee with independent external experts plus macro-prudential tools and stress testing.

Onuakalusi, opening the debate, described the changes as “structural and forward-looking reforms” to protect the economy, restore monetary policy confidence, and bar the CBN Governor and deputies from partisan politics, stressing that the current Act no longer suits today’s realities amid past controversies like Godwin Emefiele’s tenure and the disruptive naira redesign.

He said: “The Central Bank of Nigeria is too critical an institution to operate under a framework that no longer reflects Nigeria’s economic realities or international best practices.

“This bill is not targeted at any individual or administration. It is a structural reform for economic stability, transparency, accountability, and sustainable governance.”

Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu put the bill to a voice vote, with lawmakers unanimously endorsing its passage at second reading. A similar Senate bill for a single six-year tenure had passed second reading in February 2024.


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Sterling Bank, Pan-Atlantic University Partner to Certify Non-Oil Export Academy Graduates

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L-R: Kola Oluyemi, Group Head, Sterling Academy; Dr. Nneka Okekearu, Director, Enterprise Development Centre (EDC), Pan Atlantic University (PAU); Abubakar Suleiman, MD/CEO, Sterling Bank; Dr. Nnenna Ugwu, Head, Alumni Engagement and Support Services, EDC at PAU; and Akporee Idenedo, Divisional Head, Commercial Banking, Sterling Bank at the recent MoU signing to certify graduates of Sterling Bank’s Non-Oil Export Academy.
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Sterling Bank Limited has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Enterprise Development Centre (EDC) of Pan-Atlantic University (PAU) to certify graduates of its Non-Oil Export Academy.

Sterling Bank, Pan-Atlantic University Partner to Certify Non-Oil Export Academy Graduates

L-R: Kola Oluyemi, Group Head, Sterling Academy; Dr. Nneka Okekearu, Director, Enterprise Development Centre (EDC), Pan Atlantic University (PAU); Abubakar Suleiman, MD/CEO, Sterling Bank; Dr. Nnenna Ugwu, Head, Alumni Engagement and Support Services, EDC at PAU; and Akporee Idenedo, Divisional Head, Commercial Banking, Sterling Bank at the recent MoU signing to certify graduates of Sterling Bank’s Non-Oil Export Academy.

This strategic partnership underscores the Bank’s commitment to diversifying Nigeria’s economy by supporting non-oil export growth.

This landmark agreement follows the recent launch of the Sterling Bank Non-Oil Export Academy, designed to position Nigerian exporters for global competitiveness.

The launch was preceded by a series of nationwide training programs in Lagos, Ondo, and Kano states, culminating in a grand finale themed “Excel in Non-Oil Export.”

The initiative aims to equip exporters with practical tools to thrive in international markets, thereby reducing Nigeria’s reliance on oil revenues.

Speaking at the signing ceremony in Lagos, Sterling Bank’s Managing Director and CEO, Mr. Abubakar Suleiman, affirmed that the Bank is intentional about creating an ecosystem where non-oil exporters are well-informed and equipped to advance national interests.

“We are not just training people to understand how to export; we want to train them to be competitive exporters of non-oil products,” Suleiman said.

“Our goal is to build a community of knowledgeable, certified, and confident exporters who can collaborate to solve challenges beyond their immediate capacity. Our North Star is to reach a point where hundreds of people have completed this programme and are ready to compete on a global scale.”

Dr. Nneka Okekearu, Director of the Enterprise Development Centre (EDC), expressed enthusiasm for the collaboration. “Having spent the last twenty-three years deepening the competencies of entrepreneurs, we thoroughly understand what is needed and are excited to be part of this initiative,” she noted.

Dr. Okekearu emphasized that the export market has been neglected for too long. “With the right structure, standards, and mindset in place, entrepreneurs passing through this programme will help create not only a better Nigeria but more sustainable communities,” she added, noting that she looks forward to the case studies that will emerge from the programme’s participants.

Beyond sectoral outcomes, the initiative reinforces Sterling Bank’s commitment to support the development of human capital that positively shapes and impacts the wider economy. The Academy will run four cohorts within the year, commencing in 2026.

With this partnership, Sterling Bank and the Enterprise Development Centre are laying the foundation for a new generation of globally competitive Nigerian exporters, professionals equipped not only with knowledge, but with the certification, confidence, and networks needed to scale.

As both institutions align their expertise to strengthen non-oil export capacity, this collaboration signals a bold step toward a more resilient, inclusive, and diversified economy.

The Non-Oil Export Academy therefore serves as a catalyst for national transformation, empowering businesses and communities to unlock Nigeria’s full potential on the world stage.


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