E-Financial
Government Shutdown Still Hurts US Market-ForeTime
Data in the US got off to a weak start last week, with the Retail Sales figures for September disappointing expectations of a 0.2% rise, having fallen by 0.1%.
The poor figure was somewhat vindicated by the fact that sales dropped only in the auto sector, which weighed on the overall percentage for retail sales as a whole.
Whilst this is still bad news for the US, other sectors outside the auto sector fared relatively well and core sales rose by 0.4% as expected. Consumer Confidence experienced a drastic fall in October, sliding to 71.2 points; despite the fact that forecasts told of a fall, it was estimated that the drop would be from 79.7 to 75 points. The actual figure marked a 6 month low and revealed that Americans were significantly disconcerted in October due to the 16 day government shutdown, as reported by ForexTime.
Employment data also suffered last week, with data released on October 31st showing a gain of just 130K in October, the lowest figure since
May and lower than the anticipated 151K. Jobless claims are finally beginning to be more accurate again, as the backlog created due to a glitch in systems in California in September is finally starting to clear. Jobless claims declined to 340K, much in line with expectations.
The result of the Fed meeting which took place on October 31st was none other than the predicted: the monetary policy was left unchanged and bond buying will remain at $85 billion per month.
The Fed expects to see a more substantial improvement in the economy before modifying the pace of bond purchases.
The current week will reveal the US Annualized GDP which is to be released on November 7th and predicted to rise by 2.0%, the Personal Consumption Expenditures released on the same day and predicted to rise by 0.8% and the Nonfarm Payrolls for October, due out on November 18th and estimated at 130K.
Trouble seems to have arrived in the eurozone’s ace of spades, Germany, with the unemployment change released at 2K for October, double the estimated 1K, making for a total of 2.97 million of the population unemployed. This is the third consecutive month that the German unemployment rate has increased and it clearly spells out a slowdown in the eurozone’s strongest economy.
Further dampening spirits was the eurozone Core Inflation which hit a four year low of 0.7% in October, dropping from September’s 1.1% and remaining substantially below the ECB’s 2% target.
The Core CPI for the eurozone also declined in October, rising by just 0.8% in comparison to September’s 1%.
The euro suffered following the announcement of the negative chain of news last week, trading at 1.3676. On November 7th, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision which is largely expected to stay unchanged, but will also at the same time likely attempt to deliver the message that it will not hesitate to take action to alleviate monetary conditions.
The eurozone is far from safe when it comes to financial difficulties and if ECB President Mario Draghi allows his concern to show during the ECB Press Conference on the 7th, the euro is likely to plunge again.
On the British front, last week seems to have ended on a high, with more and more mortgage approvals adding up to make for a 5 year high of 66,735, indicating a strong economic recovery through the housing sector. The end of the month came with the release of the Gfk Consumer Confidence for September which has continued in its gradual improvement, up to -8 points following on from August’s 5 year high of -10. Nationwide housing prices also skyrocketed according to data released on October 31st, rising by 5.8% and marking a 3 year high whilst acting as a central factor in boosting the UK’s economic recovery.
The most important releases to look out for this week in the UK include the GDP Estimate on November 6th, the Asset Purchase Facility on November 7th which is predicted to stay at £375B and the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision which is expected to remain the same. Estimates foretell that the interest rate is not likely to be raised until 2015 because despite the fact that the UK economy is progressing so rapidly, the unemployment rate is still not at the level desired by the Bank of England.
Japanese households surprised the economy pleasantly according to the September figures released by the Statistics Bureau on October 28th, household spending increasing by 3.7% after declining by 1.6% in August and soaring above expectations of a mere 0.5% rise. Good news followed for the rest of the week, industrial production in Japan also rising by 1.5% and the national unemployment rate declining to 4%, exactly in line with expectations.
The Nomura/ JMMA manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.2 for the month of October, indicating positive movement in the Japanese manufacturing sector. As for the Bank of Japan interest rate, it has remained unchanged at 0.1% as attempts to end the long years of deflation continue. This week, on Tuesday November 5th, the Bank of Japan Monetary Meeting Minutes will be released with comments due to on the state of the economy and the current policies.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has debunked rumours suggesting that Polaris Bank is undergoing liquidation, assuring the public that the country’s banking system remains stable and secure.
Polaris Bank
The apex bank disclosed this in a post on X, where it shared a screenshot of a viral claim and flagged it as false.
It clarified that the claims, suggesting Polaris Bank had failed to meet recapitalisation requirements and was set for liquidation, are entirely false and do not reflect the current state of the Nigerian banking sector
“The Central Bank of Nigeria has noticed reports, in certain media outlets, about a recommendation for the Federal Government to take over some CBN-supervised financial institutions,” said Hakama Sidi-Ali, apex bank’s acting Director, Corporate Communications, in a statement.
“To avoid any doubt, Nigerian banks are still safe and sound. The CBN advises the public to go about their daily lives without getting disturbed by reports regarding the health of Nigerian banks that have not come from the CBN.
“The CBN is fully equipped to carry out its statutory duty of ensuring the stability of Nigeria’s financial system. “We assure the general public and depositors that their funds are safe in Nigerian financial institutions. “Bank customers are therefore advised to proceed with their banking transactions as u
The clarification was after a viral post, claiming that Polaris Bank was facing liquidation for failing to meet the Bank’s recapitalisation requirements, and could soon lose its operating licence, with the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation set to take over the process.
It further alleged that founder of the Eleganza Group, Razaq Okoya, had made a bid to acquire and revive the bank, pending approval from regulators and shareholders.
Sharing a screenshot of the viral claim, however, the apex bank flagged it as “fake content.”
It clarified that the claims, suggesting Polaris Bank had failed to meet recapitalisation requirements and was set for liquidation did not reflect the current state of the Nigerian banking sector.
“This content is fake. Let the public be guided. The Nigerian Banking System is Safe and Secure,” the bank said.
On April 1, the CBN confirmed that 33 banks successfully met the revised minimum capital requirements under its recapitalisation programme, marking a significant milestone in strengthening the financial system.
African Development Bank Group (AfDB) has approved a $200 million loan to Nigeria to support a landmark digital infrastructure initiative aimed at expanding broadband access, developing digital skills and driving large‑scale job creation.
The financing will support the Digital Value Chain Infrastructure for Boosting Employment project, known as D‑VIBE or Project BRIDGE. The initiative seeks to deploy about 90 000 kilometres of new open‑access fibre optic cable across Nigeria, extending the national fibre backbone from roughly 30 000 km to about 120 000 km.
The expanded network will connect all 774 local government areas, including schools, hospitals, agro‑industrial zones, rural communities and commercial centres. It will also establish cross‑border digital links with Benin, Cameroon, Niger and Chad, strengthening regional integration.
Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and West Africa’s largest economy, with the digital sector increasingly contributing to gross domestic product growth. The project is expected to close major connectivity gaps, raise productivity and unlock job opportunities for young people.
D‑VIBE is structured as a public‑private partnership through a special purpose vehicle, with public ownership capped at between 25% and 49% and private sector participation ranging from 51% to 75%.
This structure is intended to address high fibre rollout costs, including construction and right‑of‑way challenges.
The African Development Bank loan forms part of an $800 million sovereign financing package, alongside $500 million from the World Bank and $100 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Total project financing is estimated at $2 billion, including a $25.79 million European Union grant, a $2.6 million Multilateral Cooperation Centre for Development Finance preparation grant and at least $1.2 billion in private sector investment.
“Nigeria has the talent, the market and the ambition, but lacked the backbone infrastructure to connect opportunity with potential,” said Abdul Kamara, Director General of the African Development Bank Group’s Nigeria Office.
“This project will deliver high‑speed connectivity nationwide and equip young people to build digital careers.”
Beyond physical infrastructure, the project will support affordable devices, large‑scale digital skills training and digital platforms in priority sectors. It also includes cybersecurity, competition reforms and resilience measures, including greater use of renewable and hybrid power.
D‑VIBE is expected to help create up to 2.8 million jobs and raise broadband penetration from 45% to around 70% by 2030. The project aligns with Nigeria’s Vision 2050 and continental development priorities.
World Bank has warned that Nigeria faces a deepening early childhood development crisis in health, nutrition, and learning, threatening long-term productivity and economic growth amid persistent poverty.
World Bank
In its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update, “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development,” the bank noted moderate 2026 growth driven by services like ICT, financial services, and real estate, following 4.0 per cent GDP expansion in 2025. Inflation eased to double digits via tight policy, stable exchange rates, and better food supply, while reserves hit $45.5 billion gross by end-2025, covering 8.7 months of imports.
Fiscal deficit widened slightly as non-oil revenues rose to 8.5 per cent of GDP from improved tax administration, e-filing, and VAT e-invoicing, though wage growth lagged inflation, leaving real incomes strained and poverty unchanged.
The bank highlighted poor outcomes with 110 of 1,000 children dying before age five, 40 per cent stunted, and 52 per cent developmentally off-track at school entry—gaps three times wider in poor households and exceeding 40 points between rich and poor. It urged investment in the first 2,000 days for better education, earnings, health, and cohesion.
Regionally, Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2026 growth forecast dipped to 4.1 per cent from 4.4 per cent due to Middle East conflict inflating fuel and fertiliser costs.
Finance Minister Wale Edun countered with recovery signs: falling inflation, rising non-oil revenues, declining debt-to-GDP, and stabilising naira via digital tracking, audits, and PPP shifts. Budget Director Tanimu Yakubu described reforms as correcting imbalances from subsidies and multiple rates, boosting FAAC revenues 40 per cent and reserves over $40 billion, with debt under 30 per cent of GDP.
NACCIMA President Jani Ibrahim called for data-driven strategies amid tax changes, inflation, and global tensions, eyeing AfCFTA, digital economy, and green investments for growth.
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