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Heavy Hitters Give Nigeria The Thumbs Up

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Godwin Emefiele, Governor, CBN
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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst

October was certainly another positive month for the largest economy in Africa, which has yet again showcased its brawn and resilience on the global stage.

Annual inflation eased for the eighth straight month, while encouraging core economic metrics pointed to further signs of economic stability. Rising global oil prices and recovering domestic oil production has positively impacted government revenues and supported foreign exchange markets.

The overall outlook for Nigeria remains quite encouraging, especially when considering how heavyweights such as the World Bank and IMF have both recently expressed their optimism. As we head into the final trading months of 2017, there may be an increasing focus on the intentions of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

With inflation pressures easing and economic fundamentals stabilizing, speculation is likely to mount over the Central Bank of Nigeria taking action.

Investor confidence towards the Nigerian economy was stimulated in October, after the World Bank projected economic growth to reach 1% this year.

The IMF has also expressed optimism towards the nation by re-affirming its 0.8% growth forecast for the economy this year. According to the fund, growth in 2017 has been fueled by recovering oil production.

In addition to the improving oil outlook, Nigeria’s agricultural sector has also been performing; this is especially significant in view of the fact that the nation is currently on a quest for diversification. While the IMF stated that growth in 2018 may be subdued by population growth, the 1.9% prediction still remains encouraging and continues to highlight the resilience of the Nigerian economy.

Speaking of recovering oil production, Nigeria’s oil output hit 1.8 million barrels a day in August. While this is good news for the nation as oil prices are currently trading above $52 per barrel, production is likely to remain below this level. Although the nation could have the ability to pump more oil, the silent pressure radiating from OPEC’s production cut deal is likely to keep production capped.

While Nigeria is currently exempt from the cartels deal to cut production, there is a possibility that OPEC will request them to join in an effort to rebalance markets.

This poses an external risk to Nigeria, as the Federal government’s 2017 budget is based on a production of 2.2 million barrels per day, at $44.50 per barrel.

A scenario where Nigeria limits production and oil prices start to depreciate, could pose a threat to the nation’s current economic recovery.

While oil markets have found support from geopolitical tensions between the US – Iran and Iraq conflicts, the oversupply concerns are still lingering in the background. Technical traders will continue to observe how WTI Crude reacts above $50.

Although Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment continues to stabilize, there is still a strong need for a robust fiscal policy to complement growth.

It has been said on repeated occasions that the nation’s infrastructure needs a serious makeover. With major roads in poor condition, healthcare and education in need of a revamp, Nigeria has a lot of work on its hands.

It must be kept in mind that solid infrastructure creates a strong and healthy economy. President Muhammad Buhari has recently asked the National Assembly to approve a request to borrow $5.5 billion. With Buhari stating that the loan will be used to provide funding for capital projects, this is likely to improve investor sentiment as the money borrowed, is used for infrastructure developments.

On the monetary side, Godwin Emefiele, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, is expecting inflation rates to ease rapidly and hit high single-digit rates in the middle of 2018. This sounds like a realistic and achievable prediction, especially when considering how inflation has cooled for the eighth straight month in September, to 15.98%.

The steady increase in foreign exchange supply from the usage of the flexible rate policy, has also played a role in the fall of consumer prices, with inflationary pressures slowing and becoming a theme of the past.

If the nation’s rate of inflation continues to decline and the economic environment improves further, the Central Bank of Nigeria may cut interest rates in an effort to support growth.

Focusing on the foreign exchange outlook, the Naira traded at N363 per Dollar on the parallel market on Friday, 27 October. With the Dollar roaring back on the back of optimism over Donald Trump moving forward with tax reforms, the Naira, like many other Emerging Market currencies, could feel the heat.

Overall, there is growing confidence over Nigeria’s economic outlook, with markets paying very close attention to domestic economic data and the CBN as the 2017 finish line draws near.

Lukman Otunuga is a Research Analyst at FXTM

 


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E-Financial

IMF Fears AI-Powered Cyberattack Could Spark Global Financial Crisis

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that artificial intelligence (AI) is significantly increasing the danger of cyberattacks on the global financial system.

IMF Fears AI-Powered Cyberattack Could Spark Global Financial Crisis

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According to a blog post from the IMF, these AI-driven threats could turn isolated security breaches into severe economic disruptions, potentially freezing payments, shaking markets, and undermining public trust in banks worldwide.

In its analysis, the fund highlighted a specific example involving the controlled release of an advanced AI model called Claude Mythos Preview by Anthropic.

The IMF noted that this model demonstrated the ability to identify and exploit weaknesses in all major operating systems and web browsers, even when used by individuals without specialized expertise.

The IMF cautioned that AI could heighten risk concentration within the financial system.

A single exploited vulnerability might cascade across numerous institutions simultaneously due to heavy reliance on a limited number of cloud providers, software platforms, and AI models.

Such events could escalate from operational issues to macro-financial shocks, triggering confidence crises, liquidity problems, and fire-sale dynamics in markets. The organization also acknowledged that AI forms part of the solution.

As attackers operate at machine speed, financial institutions are deploying their own AI-assisted tools for threat detection, fraud prevention, and faster incident response.

The IMF highlighted a geopolitical dimension to the threat, noting that cyber risk crosses national borders and that inconsistent oversight among countries could weaken the globally interconnected financial system.

Emerging economies, often with limited resources, may face disproportionate exposure.

The fund urged policymakers to treat cybersecurity as a core financial stability concern rather than a technical or operational matter.

It called for prioritization of resilience standards, systemic supervision, and international coordination to contain breaches before they spread.


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MasterCard, BMONI Partner to Improve Digital Payments

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MasterCard and BMONI, an artificial intelligence-powered financial platform, are working to launch a new generation of virtual and physical payment cards that will enable Nigerian customers to conduct fluid local and worldwide transactions.

According to the partners earlier this week, the solution is powered by MasterCard’s global payment network, enabling users to instantly create multiple Naira and US dollar-denominated virtual and physical cards that are globally accepted and ready for use, with card management handled entirely within the BMONI app.

The collaboration is one of the first locally issued international card programmes in the West African country, made possible by MasterCard’s new card issuance models, which aim to promote digital payments uptake among fintech companies in the sector, the two companies said.

With Nigeria’s e-commerce market projected to exceed $26 billion by 2030, the demand for globally accepted, instantly issued digital payment solutions continues to grow.

BMONI’s card offering, built on MasterCard’s network, responds to this shift by enabling users to operate more seamlessly across currencies and everyday spending, noted Mastercard.

Dr Folasade Femi-Lawal, country manager for West Africa, MasterCard, said: “Nigeria’s digital economy is growing rapidly; consumers need payment solutions that keep pace.

“Our collaboration with BMONI brings together Mastercard’s global network with an innovative platform like BMONI to deliver real value to consumers: instant card access, multi-currency flexibility, and seamless transactions across borders.”

Ashwin Ravichandran, head of product, BMONI, added: “At BMONI, our focus has always been simple, which is to remove the friction between people and their money. This collaboration with Mastercard allows us to deliver global access and a level of control that simply has not existed before.”


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Fidelity Bank Provides Critical Funding Support to Abuja Special Needs Orphanage

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Fidelity Bank Plc, leading financial institution, through the Fidelity Helping Hands Programme (FHHP), has funded critical support for the JKS Special Needs Academy in Abuja to ensure continued shelter and care for vulnerable children.

Fidelity Bank Provides Critical Funding Support to Abuja Special Needs Orphanage

Fidelity Bank

The intervention was facilitated by a group of the bank’s newly recruited employees known as Team Valorem, as part of their induction activities. Through the FHHP, employees are empowered to actively contribute to social development by dedicating their time, resources and skills to impactful projects.

Projects executed under the initiative are employee-driven, with teams encouraged to identify causes, contribute fifty percent of the project funding, while the bank matches the contribution.

Speaking during the outreach, Divisional Head, Brand and Communications Division, Fidelity Bank Plc, Dr Meksley Nwagboh, highlighted that the initiative aligns with the Bank’s CSR pillars focused on health & social welfare, and youth empowerment.

“This intervention reflects our belief that building a better society is a shared responsibility. Through the Fidelity Helping Hands Programme, we empower our employees to actively contribute to meaningful social causes.

“The funding provided will secure the orphanage’s accommodation for an additional year, ensuring a stable and safe environment for the children. This support guarantees that these children continue to have a place they can call home,” Nwagboh remarked.

He also commended caregivers at the facility for their dedication and called for increased focus on empowerment and skill development for children with special needs.

“Beyond providing basic needs, we must provide these children with opportunities to develop skills and become self-reliant. Everyone, regardless of their physical or socio-economic status, has a role to play in the society,” he said.

In her response, Director of JKS Special Needs Academy, Mrs. Nifemi Ajileye, expressed deep appreciation to Fidelity Bank and its staff for the timely intervention.

“We are truly grateful to Fidelity Bank for this support. It will significantly improve the welfare of the children under our care and help us sustain our operations,” she said.

Ajileye highlighted the high cost of caring for children with disabilities, stating that, “Many of the children require continuous medical attention and therapy, which are quite expensive. Support like this helps us bridge critical gaps and continue delivering quality care.

This support from Fidelity Bank is timely and it means the world to us and to these children. It will help us continue our work and secure a better future for them,” she added, while calling for sustained support from other organisations.

As an institution with a heart for people, Fidelity Bank continues to demonstrate its commitment to social responsibility by driving inclusive growth and social impact through initiatives that empower communities and improve lives across Nigeria.

Ranked among the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank Plc is a full-fledged Commercial Deposit Money Bank serving over 10 million customers through digital banking channels, its 255 business offices in Nigeria and United Kingdom subsidiary, FidBank UK.

The Bank is a recipient of multiple local and international Awards, including the 2024 Excellence in Digital Transformation & MSME Banking Award by BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards; the 2024 Most Innovative Mobile Banking Application award for its Fidelity Mobile App by Global Business Outlook, and the 2024 Most Innovative Investment Banking Service Provider award by Global Brands Magazine. Additionally, the Bank was recognized as the Best Bank for SMEs in Nigeria by the Euromoney Awards for Excellence and as the Export Financing Bank of the Year by the BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards.


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