General News
How Inside Jobs and Policy Shocks Trigger Nigeria’s Rising Loan Crisis
By Blaise Udunze
The latest in the Nigerian banking sector, as banks grapple with the recapitalization compliance deadline, is confronted with a familiar yet unsettling problem that stems from rising loan defaults amid expanding credit. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN’s) latest macroeconomic outlook of 2025 showed that the banking industry’s Non-Performing Loans ratio climbed to an estimated 7 percent, pushing the sector above the prudential ceiling of 5 percent.
This deterioration has occurred even as banks report improved credit availability and strong loan demand across households and corporates. At first glance of the development, the narrative seems to defy logic in a real sense. However, below this lies a deeper story of macroeconomic strain, policy-induced shocks, and, most worryingly, persistent corporate governance abuses that continue to erode asset quality from within.
To be clear, Nigeria’s current wave of loan defaults cannot be blamed on reckless borrowers alone. The operating environment has become unusually hostile. Inflation, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), recently suggests that headline inflation is cooling and growth indicators show tentative improvement; regrettably, more Nigerians are slipping below the poverty line, eroding household purchasing power and raising operating costs for businesses.
Especially in the small and medium-sized enterprises, though, the economic growth appears positive, but has been uneven and insufficient to offset cost pressures in this space. This has heralded weak consumer demand that has squeezed revenues across retail, manufacturing and services, causing shrinking cash flows and also loan obligations remain fixed or, in many cases, rise. In such conditions, repayment stress is inevitable.
Tight monetary policy has compounded the problem. The CBN’s aggressive rate hikes, aimed at restoring price and exchange-rate stability, have significantly raised lending rates. Variable-rate loans have become more expensive mid-tenure, and businesses that borrowed under lower-rate assumptions now face repayment shocks. Even otherwise viable firms have found themselves pushed into distress as interest expenses consume a growing share of income. Going by the official survey for the last quarter of 2025, it shows that financial pressure on borrowers has intensified as more borrowers are failing to repay loans across all major categories for both secured loans, unsecured loans and corporate loans.
Exchange-rate volatility has delivered another blow. The naira’s depreciation and FX reforms have sharply increased the burden on borrowers with dollar-denominated loans but naira income. Import-dependent businesses have seen costs surge, while FX scarcity continues to disrupt production and trade cycles. For many firms, the problem is not poor management but currency mismatch. Loans that were sustainable under a more stable exchange regime have become unserviceable almost overnight.
Layered onto these macro pressures is Nigeria’s weak business environment, which has further worsened the situation, alongside chronic power shortages forcing firms to rely on costly alternatives, logistics challenges and insecurity disrupting supply chains, and regulatory uncertainty complicates planning. More on the burner that has continued to heighten the challenges is the multiple taxation and compliance burdens, further compressing margins. In survival mode, businesses naturally prioritise payrolls, energy, and raw materials over debt service. Defaults, in this context, are often a symptom rather than the disease.
Yet while these systemic pressures explain much of the stress, they do not tell the whole story. A critical and often underemphasised driver of rising loan defaults lies within the banks themselves, most especially corporate governance abuse, which emanates particularly from insider-related lending. This is the uncomfortable truth that Nigeria’s banking sector has struggled to confront decisively.
Corporate governance, at its core, is about discipline, accountability, and oversight. In the banking context, it determines how credit decisions are made, how risks are assessed, and how early warning signs are addressed. Where governance is weak, loan quality inevitably suffers. Nigeria’s history offers painful lessons, especially the banking failures of the 1990s to the post-2009 crisis clean-up, insider lending and boardroom abuses have repeatedly emerged as central culprits.
Recent evidence suggests that the problem has not disappeared. Industry estimates indicate that a significant portion of bad loans remains linked to insider and related-party exposures. Former NDIC officials have disclosed that, historically, directors and insiders accounted for as much as 40 per cent of bad loans in deposit money banks, with a handful of institutions holding the majority of insider-related NPLs. It would be said that governance frameworks have improved since then, but enforcement gaps still persist.
Insider abuse manifests in several ways. Loans are extended to directors, executives, or connected parties with inadequate due diligence. Credit decisions are influenced by relationships rather than repayment capacity, and this has been one of the critical problems as collateral is overvalued, covenants are weak, and stress testing is often superficial. When early signs of distress emerge, enforcement is delayed, restructuring is repeated without fundamental improvement, and recoveries are treated with undue caution to avoid internal embarrassment or exposure.
The result is predictable. These loans default faster and are harder to recover. Worse still, they distort bank balance sheets by crowding out credit to productive sectors. When insiders default, the signal to the wider market is corrosive. Here, credit discipline is optional, and accountability is selective, and it further fuels moral hazard, encouraging strategic defaults even among borrowers who could otherwise repay.
Governance failures also weaken loan recovery processes. Poorly empowered risk and audit committees miss warning signs or fail to act decisively because the system has been built to fail. Legal remedies are pursued slowly, if at all. In an environment where judicial delays already undermine contract enforcement, such reluctance turns manageable problem loans into fully impaired assets. Over time, NPLs accumulate not because recovery is impossible, but because it is poorly pursued.
Compounding these internal weaknesses are government policy shifts and fiscal stress, which have become major external shock absorbers for bank balance sheets. Policy inconsistency has made cash flow planning increasingly difficult for borrowers. For instance, the sudden tax changes or aggressive enforcement drives will definitely alter cost structures overnight. Delays in government payments to contractors starve businesses of liquidity, and this will surely push otherwise solvent firms into default. In theory, although removing fuel subsidies, while economically justified, have often occurred without adequate transition buffers, transmitting immediate cost shocks across energy, transport, and consumer goods sectors.
The banking sector, heavily exposed to government-linked projects and regulated industries, absorbs these shocks directly. Loans tied to this sector showed that the banks are hugely exposed to oil and gas, power, and infrastructure; they are particularly vulnerable when fiscal pressures delay receivables or alter contract economics. For instance, a total of 9 banks’ exposure to the Oil & gas sector increased to N15. 6 trillion in 2024, representing about 94.4per cent increase from N10. 17 trillion reported in 2023 financial year. It is therefore no coincidence that NPL concentrations remain high in these sectors. In effect, fiscal stress is being intermediated through bank balance sheets.
When the CBN ended the special leniency measures known as forbearance in 2025, the real extent of loan stress in the banking industry became much clearer. For a longer time, pandemic-era reliefs allowed banks to renegotiate stressed loans without immediately classifying them as non-performing. While this helped preserve surface stability, it also masked underlying vulnerabilities. With the end of forbearance, many restructured facilities have crystallised as bad loans, pushing the industry NPL ratio above the prudential ceiling. This does not mean risk suddenly increased; it means it is now being recognised.
To the CBN’s credit, transparency has improved as the industry witnessed stricter classification rules and reduced forbearance have forced banks to confront economic truth rather than regulatory convenience. And, despite the challenges, the financial system appears to be generally sound because banks have enough cash to meet obligations and sufficient capital buffers that still exceed regulatory floors, while these buffers are under pressure. Though the ongoing recapitalisation efforts are expected to provide additional buffers.
However, stability should not be confused with health. Rising NPLs, even in a liquid system, carry real consequences. Banks must set aside provisions, eroding profitability and capital. Credit supply tightens as lenders grow cautious, starving the real economy of funding. One known fact is that the moment governance and transparency concerns grow, investors, particularly foreign ones, become less willing to commit capital and this loss of confidence eventually slows down overall economic growth.
The policy response, therefore, must go beyond macroeconomic management. While stabilising inflation and the exchange rate is essential, it is not sufficient. Governance reform within banks must be treated as a systemic priority, not a compliance exercise. Insider lending rules must be enforced rigorously, with real consequences for violations. Boards must be strengthened, not merely in composition but in independence and courage. Risk and audit committees must be empowered to challenge management and act early.
Equally important is addressing the fiscal-banking nexus. The government must recognise that policy volatility and payment delays are not costless. They translate directly into higher credit risk and weaker financial intermediation. A more predictable policy environment, timely settlement of obligations, and credible transition frameworks for major reforms would significantly reduce default risk without a single naira of direct intervention.
The Global Standing Instruction framework, which the CBN continues to promote, can help improve retail and MSME recoveries. But frameworks cannot substitute for culture. Credit discipline begins at the top. When banks lend to themselves without consequence, the entire system pays the price.
Nigeria’s rising loan defaults are not merely an economic statistic; they are a governance signal. They reflect a system under stress, yes, but also one still wrestling with old habits. If recapitalisation is to be meaningful, it must be accompanied by recapitalisation of trust, through transparency, accountability, and consistent policy. Otherwise, the cycle will repeat the same strong balance sheets on paper, weak loans underneath, and another reckoning deferred, but not avoided.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
Anambra State Government says it is exploring partnerships with the Federal Government and other stakeholders to extend digital connectivity to underserved rural communities across the state.
The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Anambra State ICT Agency, Mr Chukwuemeka Fred Agbata, disclosed this during a virtual media engagement with journalists on Thursday.
Agbata said rural connectivity remained a major challenge because telecommunications operators were often reluctant to invest heavily in communities where network deployment might not be commercially viable.
He said the state was willing to explore opportunities to leverage Federal Government infrastructure and the Universal Service Provision Fund (USPF) to extend connectivity to underserved communities.
“We understand what digital inclusion means because we are dealing directly with these communities,” Agbata said.
According to him, the objective is to ensure that rural residents are not excluded from the benefits of digital government and the wider digital economy simply because of where they live.
Agbata said the effort formed part of the state’s broader digital transformation agenda, which is targeting deeper digitalisation of government services and a more digitally enabled business environment by 2030.
He said the second phase of the agency’s digital transformation agenda would focus on e-governance, digital infrastructure, smart government and the use of emerging technologies to drive development.
“My core vision is that we would have digitised every single government entity in Anambra State,” he said.
The ICT boss said the digital transformation agenda would extend beyond government ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) to businesses and residents across the state.
He said the agency was already developing websites for government MDAs and transforming them from mere information platforms into channels for delivering government services.
“We are building websites for all the MDAs. We are also automating them to be able to carry out services and give government support and government services through their websites,” he said.
Agbata said the initiative would reduce the need for citizens to physically visit government offices to access basic services.
He said the Smart Anambra platform had already demonstrated growing demand for remote access to government services.
According to him, the platform recorded about 14,000 visits between July 9 and July 29, averaging approximately 700 visits daily, despite limited publicity.
He said the data indicated that residents were interested in accessing government services online, including applications, permits and identification-related processes.
“What the data is already showing us is that we really need to build a system that allows people to actually get government services remotely,” Agbata said.
He explained that the objective was to allow residents to initiate processes online, complete forms remotely and only visit government offices where physical presence was eventually required.
This, he said, would reduce the time and cost citizens spend travelling to Awka or other government offices to access services.
Agbata said services in areas including hospitals, schools and other government processes were being connected to Smart Anambra.
Anambra Targets 2030 for Digital Government
Agbata said the state’s 2030 target was to deepen the digitalisation of government services and create an environment where businesses could increasingly operate within the formal digital economy.
He said the agency was working with the Ministry of Commerce to promote the formalisation of businesses, particularly SMEs and businesses operating in major markets.
“One of the biggest challenges that we have is that SMEs are not formalised enough,” he said, adding that the agency was exploring partnerships to address the challenge.
The ICT agency boss said the transformation would be gradual because major government initiatives required the necessary approvals and resources.
On the possibility of making Anambra completely paperless, Agbata disclosed that the State Executive Council was already operating a paperless system.
He, however, said the entire civil service might continue to operate a combination of digital and paper-based processes for some time because of the complexity of government operations.
“What might happen is a dual situation,” he said, adding that selected MDAs could be used as pilots for deeper digital transformation.
Agbata also disclosed that the Anambra State ICT Agency had commenced the deployment of a locally trained artificial intelligence (AI) system to automate its operations and explore applications in governance, revenue management and public-sector productivity.
He explained that the agency did not develop a frontier large language model from scratch because of the huge computing and financial resources required.
Instead, he said, it adopted an open-source model, modified it and was training it for specific local use cases.
“We have started doing our own local AI system. It is an open-source system, so we didn’t build our own frontier model. We basically looked at open source and modified it, and we are training it,” Agbata said.
He said the system had already been deployed to automate the agency’s operations end-to-end.
“We have used it to automate our agency end-to-end. Everything that we do now is currently automated,” he said.
Agbata said the agency was exploring how the model could be applied across other areas of government to improve productivity, address revenue leakages and strengthen governance.
He said the AI initiative formed a major part of what he described as the agency’s “2.0” phase following his reappointment by Gov. Chukwuma Soludo.
According to him, the second phase would build on achievements in infrastructure, capacity development, e-governance and smart government while placing greater emphasis on AI and emerging technologies.
Agbata also said the state’s free public Wi-Fi initiative remained operational, stressing that the programme was introduced before the electioneering period.
“The free Wi-Fi didn’t start as a political thing, a campaign thing. It started way before the campaigns,” he said.
He explained that the strategy was adjusted during the campaigns to enable residents to follow the governor’s activities and participate in live engagements while on the move.
According to him, existing Wi-Fi locations, including facilities at the state Secretariat, remain operational, although occasional downtime occurs, particularly during periods of adverse weather.
“There are downtimes now and then because with the rains and all of that, these things have their uptime and their downtimes, but it is still very much available,” he said.
He disclosed that there were currently no plans to establish additional Wi-Fi locations, noting that existing sites were still providing services.
Agbata said the state would continue to develop digital skills and education programmes, including Smart Schools and other capacity-development initiatives.
He also called for stronger collaboration among government, technology companies, telecommunications operators, local technology manufacturers and other stakeholders to accelerate the state’s digital transformation.
He cited the procurement of about 2,000 computers supplied by indigenous technology company, Zinox, as an example of the state’s engagement with local technology providers.
Agbata said the agency would remain open to partnerships capable of supporting Anambra’s technology agenda.
He said the ultimate objective was to build an Anambra where residents and businesses could increasingly interact with government digitally, while technology becomes a central driver of economic development across the state.
United States Government has said that Nigeria is not making significant progress in fiscal transparency, referencing gaps in the country’s budget disclosure, expenditure reporting, public procurement transparency and audit processes.
The assessment is contained in a report by the United States Department of State, which reviewed Nigeria’s fiscal transparency practices in its 2026 fiscal transparency report for countries published on Tuesday.
The report noted that the US government stated that Nigeria made some key fiscal documents available to the public, significant shortcomings remained in the disclosure of budgetary information and the management of public finances.
The report noted that “the government made its enacted budget and end-of-year report widely and easily accessible to the public, including online, but did not publish its executive budget proposal within a reasonable period.”
It also stated that while the Nigerian government had made information concerning the country’s debt obligations publicly available, its budget documents failed to provide a comprehensive picture of government revenues and expenditures.
“The government made information on debt obligations, including major state-owned enterprise debt, publicly available, but budget documents did not provide a substantially complete picture of the government’s revenues and expenditures, or break down expenditures to support executive offices in the budget,” the report stated.
The US government further raised concerns about discrepancies between Nigeria’s approved budget and the actual revenues and expenditures recorded during implementation.
It said, “Actual revenues and expenditures did not reasonably correspond to those in the enacted budget.”
The report also criticised the country’s supreme audit institution, stating that it did not meet international standards of independence and did not publish substantive reports, although it had access to the entire executed budget.
“The supreme audit institution did not meet international standards of independence or publish substantive reports but did have access to the entire executed budget,” it stated.
The assessment, however, acknowledged that Nigeria’s sovereign wealth fund had an adequate legal framework and disclosed information about its funding and the general approach to withdrawals.History
“The sovereign wealth fund had a sound legal framework and disclosed its source of funding and general approach to withdrawals,” the US government said.
The World Bank Group is supporting the expansion of Africa’s digital commerce infrastructure to help small businesses reach new markets, create jobs, and strengthen economic opportunities across the continent.
Through Jumia, Africa’s leading e-commerce platform, the investment is expected to enable approximately 60,000 local annual active sellers to participate more fully in the digital economy, support around 1,800 direct jobs, and create income-generating opportunities for more than 100,000 independent sales agents.
As digital commerce continues to grow across Africa, reliable access to online marketplaces, logistics networks, and digital payments are becoming increasingly important for entrepreneurs and small businesses seeking to expand beyond local markets. Strengthening this infrastructure can help firms increase sales, improve productivity, and connect consumers with a wider range of affordable goods and services.
To support this effort, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the private sector arm of the World Bank Group, is investing US$25 million in equity in Jumia Technologies AG (Jumia), Africa’s largest public e-commerce platform. The investment will support Jumia’s next phase of growth across its core African markets, strengthening its integrated marketplace and logistics network.
By expanding access to digital commerce tools and services, the investment will help businesses grow, improve price transparency, and contribute to more inclusive and resilient private sector development across Africa.
“The support of the World Bank Group is a milestone for Jumia and for African e-commerce more broadly. It validates both the discipline we have brought to our business in recent years and the tangible impact our platform has on small businesses, jobs, and consumers across our eight markets. With partners like the IFC, we can accelerate the digital commerce infrastructure Africa needs” said Francis Dufay, CEO of Jumia.
“Jumia demonstrates how pan-African e-commerce platforms can expand economic opportunity at scale. Our investment supports the company’s next phase of growth while contributing to create jobs, digitizing supply chains and distributions channels and mobilizing private investment” said Farid Fezoua, Director for Equity, Funds, and Venture Capital at the International Finance Corporation, World Bank Group.
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