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IDC Predicts Artificial Intelligence to Contribute $19.9 Trillion to the Global Economy through 2030

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New research from IDC entitled, The Global Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Economy and Jobs, predicts that business spending to adopt artificial intelligence (AI), to use AI in existing business operations, and to deliver better products/services to business and consumer customers will have a cumulative global economic impact of $19.9 trillion through 2030 and drive 3.5% of global GDP in 2030.

As a result, AI will affect jobs across every region of the world, impacting industries like contact center operations, translation, accounting, and machinery inspection. Helping to trigger this shift are business leaders who almost unanimously, 98%, view AI as a priority for their organizations.

AI’s Net Positive Global Economic Impact

According to the research, in 2030, every new dollar spent on business-related AI solutions and services will generate $4.60 into the global economy, in terms of indirect and induced effects. This is determined by:

  • Increased spending on AI solutions and services driven by accelerated AI adoption
  • Economic stimulus among AI adopters, seeing benefits in terms of increased production and new revenue streams
  • Impact along the whole AI providers supply chain, increasing revenue for the providers of essential supplies to AI solutions and services providers

“In 2024, AI entered a phase of accelerated development and deployment defined by widespread integration that’s led to a surge in enterprise investments aimed at significantly optimizing operational costs and timelines,” said Lapo Fioretti, Senior Research Analyst, Emerging Technologies and Macroeconomics, IDC. “By automating routine tasks and unlocking new efficiencies, AI will have profound economic consequences, reshaping industries, creating new markets, and altering the competitive landscape.”

Impact on Employment — New Roles Emerge While Others Remain Resilient

The majority of respondents to IDC’s Future of Work Employees Survey expect some (48%) or most (15%) parts of their work to be automated by AI and other tech over the next two years, while only a minority (3%) of employees expect their jobs to be fully automated by AI.

While some work will be negatively impacted by the proliferation of AI, new positions such as AI Ethics Specialists and AI Prompt Engineers will emerge as dedicated roles within global organizations.

The research further indicates that a ‘human touch intensity,’ combined with the level of ‘task repetitiveness’ by which each job is characterized, will inform organizations about roles that are subject to a full AI and automation replacement, versus those where tech’s role will be to augment human capabilities. As such, positions where human social and emotional capabilities are critical, such as nursing and roles where decision-making encompasses ethics and comprehension beyond numbers will remain robust.

“Understandably, we’re all curious to know if AI will replace our jobs,” said Rick Villars, Group Vice President, Worldwide Research, IDC. “As a CEO interviewed by IDC’s Andrea Siviero said, ‘Based on this research it’s clear that we should be asking ourselves how our jobs can be made easier and better by AI. AI will not replace your job but someone who knows how to use AI better than you will.’”

Research Methodology

To estimate the overall economic impact of a technology or a service, IDC developed an economic impact methodology that combines IDC knowledge of the market and internal data with a standard analytical framework, known as an Economic Impact Analysis.

It leverages an input-output (I/O) framework, using the most updated input-output official tables of a specific economy: through I/O tables, specific multipliers are determined and applied to the specific technologies to calculate the related effect.

This IDC Economic Impact Analysis evaluates three types of impact on the economy. In this AI-specific model, these are:

Direct Effect — Includes revenues from artificial intelligence business solutions/services providers directly selling their products to end users.

Indirect Effect — Refers to the economic impact related to the AI supply chain and AI adopters’ benefits. It includes the effects that organizations/tech providers have on the region or country due to their operations related to AI provision.

Backward indirect effects refer to the economic effects on supply chains and industries that provide inputs to AI-driven sectors — in other words, revenues generated in local industries impacted by AI.

Forward indirect effects refer to the effects on AI adopters, excluding consumers, that benefit from the adoption of AI technology, in terms of productivity, revenue growth, and other business parameters.

Induced Effect — These are effects induced by the increase in production. It refers to the impact, due to economic stimulus, from an increase in household income, including existing and new employees linked to the AI value chain across direct and indirect effects layers. People will spend part of their wages in the economy, thus generating additional economic impact.

“The importance of economic impact models is increasing. This type of analysis can be of importance for any vendor who wants to understand the impact of its specific products or services in a short or medium-term period.

“It helps not only businesses but also governments and other stakeholders make informed decisions by evaluating the potential benefits of a technology investment, for example, to the economy,” said Carla La Croce, Research Manager, Data and Analytics, IDC.

The IDC report, The Global Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Economy and Jobs: AI will Steer 3.5% of GDP in 2030 (Doc #US51057924), assesses the impact of artificial intelligence in terms of economic output and employment.

This assessment leverages IDC’s knowledge of the market and internal data, as well as IDC’s Economic Impact model, which considers the direct, indirect, and induced effects of AI in the economy.

“The study delves into the global impact of AI on the economy, diving deep into specific regions, technology layers, and industries. The goal is to assess AI’s cumulative contributions to the economy with respect to the forecast global GDP in 2030.

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E-Business

Firm Warns that Employees’ Digital Fatigue Leads to Higher Cyber Risks

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In observing World Mental Health Day on the 10th of October, Kaspersky warns of the relationship between digital fatigue and increased exposure to cyber risks.

In today’s data-driven and digital business environment, office employees are bombarded with a constant feed of notifications, continuous digital interactions and the need to make huge amounts of decisions throughout the day.

Even though advanced technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning are helping to improve efficiencies, workers are under significant strain.

This can result in digital fatigue that not only negatively impacts an employee’s well-being and productivity versus higher rates of burnout, but also risks opening the company to a range of cyberthreats, from phishing to deepfakes, warns Kaspersky.

“Employees face hundreds of decisions daily, that range from small, routine choices to critical business decisions. Eventually, the brain’s ability to make sound judgments declines over time and pressure. The constant influx of emails, messages, and alerts are exacerbating this digital fatigue,” says Brandon Muller, Technical Expert for the MEA region at Kaspersky.

In fact, a research by Forbes Advisor shows that digital communications make 58% of employees feel like they need to be available more often.

This results in 60% of the workforce feeling increased burnout. The constant need to stay online and multitask adds to this high-pressure environment, making employees more prone to mistakes.

Phishing still prevalent

Phishing remains one of the most widespread forms of cybercrime. Fatigued employees are more likely to miss the warning signs of a phishing email, especially when they are just one among many in their overflowing inboxes and as phishing campaigns become ever more sophisticated.

These attacks are designed to deceive employees into disclosing sensitive information, such as login credentials or financial data, by posing as legitimate sources.

While phishing attacks come in various forms, they often target corporate email systems due to the potential wealth of valuable information they hold, making them prime targets for exploitation.

The rising threat of deepfakes

AI is also contributing to the rise of deepfakes – highly convincing audio or video content manipulated to deceive the recipient. Even when not fatigued, employees are finding it more difficult to assess the authenticity of such content.

When it comes to digital fatigue, these deepfakes can pose a serious risk in corporate settings, where cybercriminals may impersonate executives to authorise fraudulent transactions or gain access to sensitive information.

Other threats

From inadvertent installation of malware to checking the contents of a USB found on a way to the office – the cyber risks may vary in form and can lead to devastating consequences. If robust cybersecurity solutions are in place to help identify and filter the threats, and if employees are educated and alert, organisations are in a much safer position.

Supporting employees

There are several proactive measures organisations can adopt to help reduce the cognitive load on their employees:

  • Cybersecurity training that is relatable and engaging: By using automated, customised training platforms that adjust content based on role and experience, organisations can make sure their employees stay informed without feeling overwhelmed. Gamified elements in training can also enhance engagement and retention.
  • Automated cybersecurity solutions: Investing in advanced cybersecurity tools, such as automated threat detection and response systems, help businesses reduce human error and mitigate risks.

Protection solutions for mail servers with anti-phishing, anti-spam, and malware detection technologies decrease the chance of infection. These tools can work in the background, allowing employees to focus on their work without constantly worrying about potential cyber threats.

  • Enable a Default Deny policy for critical user profiles, particularly those in financial departments, which ensures that only legitimate web resources can be accessed.
  • Create areas for employees to take a break.

Advice for employees to combat digital fatigue:

  • Establish routines for certain decisions to save mental energy for more critical choices.
  • Prioritise tasks, delegate or automate less important decisions.
  • Identify most important criteria to ease decision making, narrow down your choices, ask for advice and additional information.
  • Focus on key data, limit information overload and distractions when taking important decisions.
  • Recognise the signs of decision fatigue, such as reduced concentration, increased irritability, and procrastination.
  • Schedule regular breaks to recharge and prioritise some exercise such as going for a walk. Also consider exercises for your eyes and neck.
  • Stay alert when receiving messages that look uncommon, as well as when visiting new web pages and making money transactions.

“The demands of the digital workplace are not going away. Fortunately, organisations can take meaningful steps to support their employees while still protecting the business from cyber threats. By addressing the root causes of decision and digital fatigue, companies can reduce the risk of successful phishing, deepfakes, and other sophisticated cyberattacks,” concludes Muller.


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Better Digital Payments Infrastructure is Facilitating Access to New Markets for Enterprise

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By Doreen Lukandwa, Head, Commercial Strategy at Onafriq

Saying that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of economies in East Africa is an understatement. SMEs make up the largest part of all registered entities in nearly every industry and sector in most East African countries, averaging between 60% to 90%, including micro-enterprises.

As the region continues to experience significant progress and development, the SME ecosystem plays a crucial role in creating employment opportunities, encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship, and diversifying economies.

However, only a few of these SMEs will grow into larger-sized firms or expand their reach into markets beyond the area they operate. This is mainly due to the constraints they face that limit their ability to expand and scale their business, such as inadequate financing and access to investment and financial services and insufficient integration into international capital markets.

Historically, the finance sector in East Africa has shown a preference for traditional banks, which have been restricted in terms of geographical reach and other factors. This has resulted in limited access to financial services for many merchants in the region, hindering economic growth and development. But this is changing.

The emergence of an increasingly robust digital payments infrastructure in East Africa presents an incredible opportunity for businesses to scale by opening up access to new markets in the region, across the continent, and around the globe.

Expanding the global footprint of enterprise

Africa accounts for 70% of the world’s $1 trillion in mobile money value, mainly due to the boom in digital instant payment solutions and inclusive interoperable payment systems across the continent. East Africa makes up the largest mobile money market on the continent, with transaction values worth $491 billion for 390 million registered accounts in 2022.

These booming, secure, efficient, and interconnected digital payment systems are transforming the business landscape by breaking down geographical barriers and broadening enterprises’ ability to collect and make payments to and from anywhere in the world.

Trailblazing fintech firms are revolutionising the digital payments space and helping enterprises solve their revenue collection and payments challenges, reducing operational costs and leaving them free to focus on operational efficiency.

Now, SMEs can scale their existing services into new African and global markets by capitalising on the growing digital payment infrastructure without the need to build their payment infrastructure or platforms. With just the right payment partner, businesses can expand into new territories by establishing a virtual financial presence, helping duplicate their services in the new market.

By leveraging the shared infrastructure and resources from their payment partner, enterprises can now mitigate risks while gaining access to local knowledge and networks.

Enabling enterprise to meet its full potential

The increased access to new markets for enterprises, facilitated by the digital payments space, enables their ability to scale up, compete with larger firms, and increase their growth potential.

By scaling effectively, East African SMEs can keep up with customer and market demands, improve their efficiencies and find new avenues of revenue growth without being held back by a lack of resources or infrastructure. It encourages innovation, which could see the development of new products and services, increase sales opportunities, and further their ability to serve more customers and expand into new markets.

As the rapid growth of digital payments technology continues, we can expect to see more enterprises take advantage of the increased access to new markets, resulting in the growth of SMEs across the region and subsequently driving the creation of better-paid jobs, economic growth and ensuring more competitive economies.


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Cybercriminals Using “Joker: Folie à Deux” Release to Scam Fans

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Kaspersky has uncovered cybercriminals exploiting the hype surrounding “Joker: Folie à Deux” ahead of its worldwide cinema premiere, for online phishing scams. Fans eager to watch the new movie online are at risk of being duped into giving away their sensitive data and money.

Kaspersky experts have identified phishing scams related to the new movie. The first example involves a fake offer to subscribe to watch the film for free.

On the fake website, users are asked to enter their credit card information to sign up, while the promised film is never accessible. The scammers gain access to the victim’s card details and can use them for fraudulent transactions or to sell on the dark web.

The second type of scam exploits the Joker movie brand to lure victims into fraudulent investment schemes, giveaways, or similar traps. Cybercriminals create phishing websites claiming to offer free access to the movie.

When users attempt to play the video, they are redirected to other pages – often promoting quick, easy money-making schemes, offering the chance to participate in a giveaway, or possibly other profits.

In the cases uncovered by Kaspersky, users are prompted to provide either personal information – so perpetrators can contact them with faux investment opportunities – or credit card details, for example, to pay for the delivery of the giveaway prize.

“As the premiere approaches, more people are looking for more ways to gain early access to the film and, as such, the risk of falling for such scams increases. We strongly recommend users carefully verify where they enter sensitive information and install reliable antivirus software that can warn against suspicious or malicious websites,” says Olga Svistunova, a security expert at Kaspersky.

To protect themselves from phishing-related risks, Joker movie fans should take precautions when navigating online content related to the premiere. Kaspersky experts recommend the following:

Be cautious. Beware of suspicious emails, messages, or websites offering exclusive deals or freebies. Always verify the source before sharing personal or financial information.

Safeguard personal data. Be mindful when providing sensitive information online, such as your address, phone number, or financial details, and only use secure platforms.

Verify website security. Ensure websites have secure connections by looking for “https://” in the URL and a padlock symbol in the address bar.

Use security solutions. Rely on trusted security solutions like award-winning Kaspersky Premium, that identifies malicious and phishing sites.

Trust reliable sources. Stick to official websites, authorised retailers, and reputable sources for any content to avoid scams.

 


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