E-Business
IDC Says Worldwide IT Spending Expected to Post Significant Slowdown in 2016
Worldwide IT spending is expected to post a major slowdown in 2016, as economic weakness in emerging markets and saturation of the smartphone market combine to result in a significantly slower pace of tech spending growth compared to the past six years.
Having posted annual growth of 5-6% in constant currency terms since recovery from the financial crisis in 2010, the global IT market is expected to increase by just 2% this year (in constant currency).
Total IT spending on hardware, software and services will reach $2.3 trillion in 2016.
Including telecom services, total ICT spending will increase by 2% to $3.8 trillion, according to the latest data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Black Book.
IT spending was relatively stable in 2015, in spite of the volatile economy, propelled by another strong year for smartphone shipments, which compensated for a weakening PC market throughout the year.
Smartphones accounted for half of the overall industry growth rate of 6% in 2015. Spending on cloud infrastructure was also strong throughout the year, resulting in growth of 16% for the server market and 10% for storage systems.
Enterprise spending on software, including SaaS, posted healthy growth of 7% with strong investment in analytics, security, and collaborative applications.
However, the strong US dollar made 2015 an uncomfortable year for US-based IT companies. In US dollar terms, the overall IT market declined by 2% last year, and exchange rate volatility remains a wild card which could influence the fortunes of IT suppliers over the next 12 months.
“Aside from exchange rate volatility, IT spending has been relatively stable for the past five years,” said Stephen Minton, Vice President with IDC’s Customer Insights and Analysisgroup. “Excluding mobile phones, overall tech spending has continued to grow at 3-4% each year in constant currency terms since we recovered from the disruption of the financial crisis. A solid PC upgrade cycle in 2014 was followed by a major cycle of infrastructure spending in 2015, mostly driven by cloud. IT buyers continue to prioritize software investments like data analytics and enterprise mobility, and have increasingly leveraged the service provider model in order to increase the effectiveness of their IT budgets. Underlying buyer sentiment is strong.”
IT spending in China has been a growing source of revenue for tech vendors in recent years, and the market grew by 11% in constant currency terms last year, driven by strong growth in smartphones and cloud infrastructure.
However, we now see signs of increasing maturity in the smartphone market after the phenomenal growth of the past seven years, and this is now expected to result in overall IT spending posting its first -ever decline (of -0.3%).
While the smartphone slowdown is more heavily related to market maturity than economic weakness, we also forecast a decline in PC sales, and softening growth of spending on servers, storage, and peripherals compared to last year.
The software market in China has so far remained relatively stable, but accounts for only 5% of overall IT spending (compared to 30% in the United States).
As a result, China is more exposed to volatile swings in capital spending, with hardware markets tending to be more sensitive to economic disruption.
“The slowdown in China is largely connected to increasing rates of market penetration and price competition, but the current economic uncertainty also represents a significant downside risk for the rest of 2016,” said Minton. “Emerging markets in general are fragile, and weaker growth in China has already had a negative impact on countries such as Brazil. Mature markets like the US and Europe have been somewhat more stable over the past 12 months, but the downside risks have now increased across all geographies, and the likelihood of a more widespread slowdown in IT spending is now higher than three months ago.”
IT spending in the US is currently expected to remain broadly stable, assuming there are no significant disruptions to the broader economy.
The US IT market is forecast to increase by 4% for the fourth consecutive year, in spite of an expected decline in the PC market and weakening growth in servers and storage. US businesses continue to invest strongly in 3rd Platform solutions around Big Data, Cloud, Mobile and Social.
The “new normal” of 4% annual growth in IT spending is likely to continue in 2017, assuming the overall economy remains in line with current expectations.
Western Europe will post weaker growth in 2016 than 2015, due to the increased maturity of the smartphone market and a deceleration from the double-digit growth of spending on infrastructure last year.
Cloud-related investments remained strong over the past 12 months, in spite of inflationary pressures related to currency devaluation, but there are now signs that momentum in the economy is increasingly fragile.
However, growth in IT services and software is expected to remain stable, and we also forecast an improvement in the tablet market after a weak performance last year. Including smartphones, overall IT spending in Europe will increase by 1% this year (down from 5% growth in 2015).
Asia/Pacific will post growth of less than 2% in 2016, compared to 7% in 2015, largely due to the overall slowdown in China.
The IT market in Japan is expected to stabilize, recovering to growth of 1.5% after posting a slight decline in 2015. India remains a bright spot, and posted growth of 13% last year in constant currency terms, driven by a strong PC market, which was propelled by government initiatives and education projects.
While a slowdown in PC revenues and more difficult year-on-year comparisons for cloud infrastructure spending will result in weaker overall IT spending growth of 8% in 2016, underlying sentiment remains strong and we forecast accelerating growth in software and services.
India will rebound to double-digit growth in 2017, and will represent an increasingly vital source of growth for global IT suppliers over the next five years.
“India is a vital market for tech companies in 2016, representing a market that still has huge room and potential for growth across many sectors,” said Minton.
“India’s current importance to many IT vendors in some ways mirrors the importance of China a decade ago. Although the overall market is still much smaller than China, India’s expected rate of growth will see it overtake Australia and Canada to enter the top 10 largest IT markets by 2020.”
Growth in other emerging markets will be more volatile, however, as economic weakness inhibits IT spending. A major slowdown in Russia last year resulted in an IT spending decline of 8.5%, and the recovery will be gradual and moderate in 2016 (recovering to sluggish growth of just 1% overall).
The IT market in Brazil is also expected to be sluggish, forecast to increase by just 3% this year.
Excluding smartphones, IT spending in Brazil will post a slight decline, with significant declines in PC and server spending.
Overall IT spending in the BRIC markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China will increase by just 1% in 2016.
Uche Chigbo, coordinating director of Operations, National Identity Management Commission, (NIMC), has said the newly enacted NIMC Act strengthens data protection and privacy, expands identity coverage to include everyone in Nigeria and Nigerians in the diaspora, and provides the legal framework for a secure and trusted digital identity ecosystem.
She said the new law replaces the 2007 NIMC Act, which had become outdated due to rapid technological advancements, evolving cybersecurity threats, the growth of the digital economy, and the enactment of the Nigeria Data Protection Act.
According to her, the updated legislation better positions the Commission to deliver Nigeria’s digital identity agenda and improve access to government and private sector services.
“The Act itself has taken in a whole lot of things to make sure that NIMC is well-positioned to be able to deliver on the identity agenda and program of Nigeria. The area of universal coverage was expanded within the Act so that NIMC can enroll everybody that is within the soil of Nigeria—male, female, children, whether they are IDPs or orphans or whatever it is, and even Nigerians in diaspora.
“There is quite a lot within the Act that over the few days and weeks, even with my Director-General’s courtesy visit, we are trying to sensitize and educate the general public, and also bring awareness to this new Act so that people will know what are the rights that exist within it, what are the obligations, what are the stronger enforcement and penalties that has also been expanded within the Act, and then what are also the regulatory autonomy that has been given to NIMC to make sure that they drive the digital identity ecosystem in Nigeria,” she explained.
“There’s a lot of provisions and changes with the new Act. Um, the NIMC 2007 Act has been operating for close to 19 years now. So, we can see that, um, you can actually say it’s almost obsolete. And then with a lot of technological advancements in the world now, with the enactment of the Nigeria Data Protection Act, and then with also a lot of evolving security challenges, cybersecurity challenges, as well as the ever-growing digital economy, it became very necessary that a comprehensive review of the NIMC Act should be done.
So, that 2007 Act has been repealed and a new NIMC 2026 Act is in place,” she explained.
Chigbo clarified that the National Identification Number (NIN) is Nigeria’s unique identifier and the only valid means of identification for accessing government services.
She added that it enables secure identity verification and improves access to services.
“NIN has been designated as the unique identifier in Nigeria and then by the government of Nigeria establishing it as the only valid means of identification for assessing government services. So, NIN, it’s positioned to be a valuable tool for empowering citizens and legal residents to facilitate access to service delivery in Nigeria. And it’s also a tool for people to be able to prove their identity as they go about their daily businesses,” she said.
Speaking on identity harmonisation across government agencies, Chigbo said NIMC is integrating identity databases to enable Nigerians to access services seamlessly using the National Identification Number (NIN), while other agencies continue to issue functional identities for specific purposes.
“There’s a distinction between a foundational identity and a functional identity. NIMC provides the foundational identity, which answers the question, ‘Who are you?’ Are you a Nigerian or a legal resident? Who are you? That’s what NIMC is providing. All these other agencies that you have mentioned, they provide functional ID, which is an ID that relies on the foundational ID, where they have established who you are and then they are now trying to answer the question, ‘Are you now eligible to have these services? Are you now eligible to benefit from this transaction or scheme?’ So, those are two different distinctions.”
However, Chigbo said NIMC’s mandate is to harmonise and integrate identity systems across government, with the amended Act designating the Commission as the sole repository for biometric data.
“However, NIMC mandate is to make sure that we harmonize and integrate with all these agencies so that you’re one and the same person in any of the databases or registries that you have. The Act that has been expanded and amended also positions NIMC as the only repository for biometric data capture so that we can have effective identity management and coordination in Nigeria.
“So, that harmonization is already happening, the integration is already happening,” she stated.
She also disclosed that NIMC has introduced an online modification portal that allows Nigerians to begin the process of correcting or updating their personal information from the comfort of their homes or offices.
“But also, NIMC we have a modification portal that enables you to sit in the comfort of your home or office to be able to start the process of correction or updates of your data. We already have a self-service modification portal that allows you to make corrections,” she disclosed.
On the cost of obtaining a NIN, Chigbo clarified that enrolment and issuance of the National Identification Number are free.
She, however, noted that some other identity-related services attract approved fees, which are published on the NIMC website and paid electronically through the government Remita platform.
“Enrollment for the issuance of the National Identification Number, NIN, is free. There are other services, identity services that NIMC provide. Those ones have their charges, and those fees and charges are publicized on the NIMC website so that people can see what those charges are. And NIMC does not collect cash. Our transactions and the charges are paid electronically through the government Remita platform,” she said.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) has retained Nigeria’s economic growth forecast at 4.1 per cent for 2026, while warning that rising prices of essential goods could worsen poverty and food insecurity in the country.
IMF
The IMF made the projection in its July 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, released on Wednesday.
According to the report, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026 and improve to 4.3 per cent in 2027, with both forecasts unchanged from the Fund’s April outlook.
The IMF also maintained its growth projections for sub-Saharan Africa at 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.5 per cent in 2027.
The Fund said Nigeria’s economic outlook continued to benefit from improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms of trade but cautioned that the rising cost of essential commodities remained a major concern.
“Nigeria is supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms-of-trade effects, though higher prices for essentials are expected to further aggravate poverty and food insecurity,” the report stated.
The IMF noted that economic performance across sub-Saharan Africa would remain uneven, reflecting differences in policy implementation, reform progress and countries’ exposure to external shocks.
It added that oil-importing and non-resource-intensive economies would likely face increased pressure from rising food and energy prices, while some larger economies continued to benefit from earlier macroeconomic reforms.
Globally, the IMF revised its 2026 growth forecast downward to 3.0 per cent from the 3.1 per cent projected in April but raised its 2027 forecast to 3.4 per cent.
According to the Fund, the downgrade for 2026 reflects the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, although stronger demand driven by advances in artificial intelligence and technology adoption has helped cushion some of the adverse effects.
Despite the resilience of the global economy, the IMF warned that risks remained tilted to the downside.
It identified renewed trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts and tighter global financial conditions as key threats to economic growth.
The Fund urged governments to rebuild fiscal buffers through credible fiscal consolidation, improved revenue mobilisation, stronger tax administration, efficient public spending and increased investment in infrastructure, skills development and targeted social protection programmes.
It also advised commodity-exporting countries to avoid excessive public spending during periods of high commodity prices.
“Economies benefiting from commodity windfalls and the upturn in the global technology cycle should avoid procyclical spending and save or redeploy gains within a credible medium-term fiscal framework anchored in debt sustainability,” the report stated.
The IMF further called on policymakers to accelerate structural reforms aimed at boosting productivity, strengthening labour markets, expanding digital and physical infrastructure, promoting predictable trade policies and enhancing international cooperation to support sustainable economic growth.
Nigeria’s data protection industry has grown into a N16.3 billion ecosystem within three years of formal regulation, according to the Nigeria Data Protection Commission (NDPC).
Olufemi Ibitayo, head of Finance Management and Control, NDPC, announced the milestone at the Regional Data Governance Exchange in Nairobi, Kenya, where he represented Dr Vincent Olatunji, national commissioner and chief executive officer, NDPC.
Presenting Nigeria’s progress, Ibitayo said the country’s strong regulatory framework and the establishment of an independent data protection authority have strengthened confidence in the digital economy and enhanced Nigeria’s reputation as a destination for foreign investment.
The Regional Data Governance Exchange, organised by the Data Governance in Africa Initiative and hosted by the Office of the Data Protection Commissioner in Nairobi, brought together African data protection authorities to strengthen institutional capacity, deepen collaboration and promote peer learning on data governance. Photo: NDPC
He said the Commission’s “Compliance First, Not Punishment” approach encourages organisations to meet their obligations through dialogue and voluntary compliance, while ensuring effective regulatory oversight.
Ibitayo added that the NDPC is developing regulatory technology solutions, a regulatory sandbox and a data privacy innovation laboratory to further strengthen Nigeria’s data governance ecosystem and support future growth.
United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL)
The ongoing UNCITRAL session has brought together delegates from Nigeria, Australia, China, Ghana, France, the United States and other member states to develop harmonised legal frameworks aimed at facilitating secure, trusted and efficient cross-border digital commerce. Photo: NDPC
Meanwhile, Olatunji reaffirmed Nigeria’s commitment to global data governance during a meeting with Nigeria’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Jimoh Ibrahim.
He made the remark on the sidelines of the ongoing United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL), where Nigeria is participating alongside delegates from several member states to advance harmonised legal frameworks for secure and trusted cross-border digital commerce.
The NDPC boss highlighted the Commission’s achievements since its establishment, noting that strategic institutional reforms have positioned Nigeria as a leading voice in the global data protection ecosystem.
He said the country’s data protection framework has continued to earn international recognition, adding that the Commission remains committed to promoting trusted data governance as a driver of digital transformation, economic growth, innovation and sustainable development in line with the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
During the meeting, Ambassador Ibrahim commended the Commission’s progress since the enactment of the Nigeria Data Protection Act 2023 and called for the establishment of a comprehensive national data bank to support evidence-based policymaking, research and national development.
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