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If Capital is the Answer, What Exactly is the Problem with First Holdco

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By Blaise Udunze

The Olayemi Cardoso-led Central Bank of Nigeria’s 24-month compliance timeline for the recapitalization of Nigeria’s banking system is about to conclude on March 31, 2026, which is framed as an unavoidable solution to systemic fragility, weak balance sheets, and the demands of a larger, more complex economy. Bigger capital, regulators argue, will produce stronger banks.

If Capital is the Answer, What Exactly is the Problem with First Holdco?

Though First Bank may have met the CBN’s N500 billion minimum requirement, the latest financials from Femi Otedola-led First HoldCo Plc, which is the parent of Nigeria’s oldest commercial bank, offer a sobering counterpoint, revealing that capital alone cannot cure structural weakness, governance failure, or deep-rooted risk management flaws. If capital is the answer, what exactly is the problem?

What is truly astonishing to many is that beneath the headline growth in earnings lies a financial institution struggling with collapsing earnings quality, surging credit impairments, volatile fair-value exposures, and rising operating inefficiencies. First HoldCo’s numbers are not merely a company-specific disappointment; they are a mirror reflecting the deeper fault lines within Nigeria’s financial system and a warning that recapitalisation, in its current form, risks becoming another cosmetic reset rather than a genuine reform.

On the surface, the topline appears encouraging. The figures showed that gross earnings rose by 17.1 percent to N2.64 trillion in the nine months to 2025, while interest income surged by over 40 percent to N2.29 trillion. Figuring it out, investors, depositors, and analysts understand that these figures, however, are largely the product of a high-interest-rate environment driven by aggressive monetary tightening. They reflect repricing, not necessarily improved lending quality or superior balance-sheet strength. In an economy under strain, rising interest income often signals the transfer of macroeconomic stress from borrowers to banks, rather than sustainable growth.

This becomes evident once attention shifts from revenues to profitability. The performance disclosed that profit before tax declined by 7.3 percent to N566.5 billion, while profit after tax fell nearly 13 percent to N458 billion. Earnings per share dropped by a steep 27.7 percent, a sharper decline than headline profit suggests, pointing to dilution pressures and reduced value accruing to shareholders. More striking still is the full-year picture, where profit after tax from continuing operations collapsed by about 92 percent, plunging to N52.7 billion from N663.5 billion in the prior year. Such a dramatic fall cannot be explained by temporary volatility; it is the consequence of long-suppressed risks finally surfacing.

The most damaging of these risks is asset quality. The most critical figure is the impairment charges that rose by nearly 69 percent in the nine months to N288.9 billion, and by over 75 percent on a full-year basis to N748 billion, and invariably, these numbers tell a story of borrowers buckling under FX exposure, weak cash flows, and a deteriorating operating environment. They also raise uncomfortable questions about credit underwriting standards, concentration risk, and the effectiveness of internal risk controls in earlier lending cycles. After impairments, much of the benefit from higher interest income evaporated, exposing the fragility of earnings built on stressed credit.

Compounding this weakness was a sharp reversal in fair-value accounting. First HoldCo recorded a net loss of N87 billion on financial instruments measured at fair value, a stark contrast to the N549 billion gain recorded a year earlier. Due to this outcome, larger chunks of shareholders’ value were wiped out because this single swing accounted for a negative variance of over N636 billion year-on-year.

The episode highlights a dangerous dependence on market revaluations and FX-driven gains to prop up earnings, as seen that the moment conditions turn, paper profits vanish just as quickly, raising questions about the transparency, sustainability and economic substance of reported results.

Non-interest income provided little cushion. In the nine months to 2025, it declined by 44.5 percent, falling from N618.7 billion to N343.7 billion. While net fees and commission income rose by about 25 percent, the increase was too small to offset the collapse in other income lines. The result is a revenue base that is narrow, volatile, and overly exposed to market swings. Recapitalising banks without addressing this lack of income diversification simply amplifies vulnerability.

At the same time, operating costs surged. Operating expenses climbed by nearly 40 percent to N942.7 billion, while other operating expenses jumped over 43 percent on a full-year basis. Inflation, FX depreciation, energy costs, and technology spending all played a role, but the deeper issue is efficiency. Costs are rising far faster than sustainable income, eroding margins and weakening internal capital generation at precisely the moment banks are being asked to shore up capital buffers. Injecting fresh capital into institutions with broken cost structures does not resolve inefficiency; it merely postpones the inevitable days.

These financial stresses revive longstanding concerns about governance and risk culture in Nigeria’s banking system. Large impairment charges and valuation reversals do not emerge overnight. They accumulate through years of weak credit governance, excessive sector and obligor concentration, insider-related exposures, inadequate stress testing, and regulatory forbearance. Recapitalisation does not answer the most important questions: who gets credit, how risks are approved, how boards exercise oversight, and whether management is truly accountable. Without reform in these areas, more capital simply provides a thicker cushion for future losses.

Foreign exchange risk remains the system’s most dangerous and least resolved fault line. Currency devaluation inflates asset values and boosts interest income on paper, while simultaneously crushing borrowers with FX-denominated obligations. Banks may book translation or revaluation gains even as credit quality deteriorates beneath the surface. This contradiction fuels earnings volatility and undermines confidence in financial reporting. A stronger capital base does not neutralise FX mismatch risk; only disciplined risk management, credible macro policy, and transparent reporting can.

Perhaps most troubling is what First HoldCo’s results imply about regulatory credibility. Many of the impairments and valuation losses reflect risks that were visible long before they crystallised in the income statement. When losses arrive suddenly and in clusters, concerns from different quarters are raised and markets begin to question whether supervision is proactive or merely reactive. Recapitalisation without restoring trust in regulatory oversight risks being interpreted as an admission that deeper problems remain unaddressed and by extension, this erodes trust in the system and a stronger banking sector must also be a fairer and more accountable one.

Nigeria has travelled this road before. Bigger banks and higher capital thresholds have previously delivered reassuring headlines, only for familiar weaknesses to resurface in new forms. First HoldCo’s numbers demonstrate that capital adequacy, while necessary, is far from sufficient. Without the CBN confronting governance failures, asset quality deterioration, concentration risk, FX exposure, transparency gaps, and weak risk culture, recapitalisation risks will become another exercise in delay rather than reform.

The uncomfortable truth is that real stability requires more than fresh equity. It demands honest loss recognition, credible financial reporting, disciplined credit practices, diversified income streams, and regulators willing to enforce standards consistently. Until these missing pieces are addressed, recapitalisation will remain what it too often has been in Nigeria’s financial history, as a larger buffer for the same old problems, and a temporary comfort masking unresolved fragilities.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]


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E-Financial

Ecobank Profit Jumps 29 Percent to N950Bn

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Ecobank Transnational Incorporated has reported a 29 per cent rise in profit after tax to N950.0bn for the financial year ended December 31, 2025, driven by growth in interest income and non-interest revenue.

Ecobank Profit Jumps 29 Percent to N950Bn

This was indicated in the Condensed Consolidated Unaudited Financial Statements for the year ended December 2025 filed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited on Friday.

According to the report, the pan-African banking group’s gross earnings rose 14 per cent to N4.82tn, while total revenue increased 18 per cent to N3.67tn.

Profit before tax climbed 30 per cent to N1.28tn, up from N986.7bn in 2024. Operating profit before impairment charges rose 29 per cent to N1.89tn.

In the period under review, net interest income grew 22 per cent year on year to N2.14tn, supported by a 15 per cent increase in interest income to N3.18tn.

Interest expense rose modestly by four per cent to N1.04tn.

Non-interest revenue also strengthened, rising 13 per cent to N1.53tn, buoyed by a 17 per cent increase in fee and commission income to N1.03tn, and a 14 per cent growth in trading income and foreign exchange gains to N559.36bn.

However, other operating income declined 22 per cent to N68.6bn, while net losses on investment securities widened to N10.98bn.

Impairment charges on financial assets rose 28 per cent to N613.26bn, reflecting higher credit risk provisioning during the period.

Despite this, operating profit after impairment increased 30 per cent to N1.28tn.

Total profit stood at N950.0bn, compared to N735.9bn in 2024. Total assets expanded 14 per cent to N49.44tn, up from N43.30tn in 2024.

Loans and advances to customers increased 11 per cent to N17.09tn, while deposits from customers rose 15 per cent to N36.45tn, reinforcing the bank’s funding base. Total equity strengthened significantly, rising 50 per cent to N4.17tn, driven largely by retained earnings growth.

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders stood at N2.91tn, up from N1.75tn. Total liabilities increased to N45.27tn, from N40.52tn in the previous year.

Ecobank operates in 34 African countries and several international financial centres, serving more than 32 million customers across consumer, commercial, corporate, and investment banking segments.


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Incentives alone won’t win over Africa’s next billion fintech users — Kuda MFB MD

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African fintechs hoping to sign up the continent’s next billion users will need to rethink the industry’s long-running growth playbook, according to Musty Mustapha, Managing Director of Kuda Microfinance Bank, who says cashbacks and incentives may drive downloads but rarely help build sustainable businesses.

Incentives alone won’t win over Africa’s next billion fintech users — Kuda MFB MD

Kuda MFB MD

Speaking at a fintech panel discussion on scaling digital financial services across Africa at Tech Revolution Africa, a gathering of tech leaders, investors, operators, and professionals which was held at Landmark Event Center on January 31, 2026, Mustapha objected to what he described as the “growth at all costs” culture which has defined much of African fintech so far. While incentives can quickly inflate user numbers, he said they often fail to create the kind of trust and consistent usage that keeps customers long term.

“It is easy to buy users,” he said. “But if you grow without creating real value, you’re only solving for today’s numbers and ignoring whether the business survives tomorrow.”

His comments come at a time when many startups are under pressure to demonstrate stronger unit economics as venture funding tightens and investors shift attention from rapid acquisition to profitability and retention. In that environment, Mustapha argues that reliability, not marketing spend, will determine which fintechs endure.

Contrary to common assumptions, he said African consumers are not resistant to technology but cautious, shaped by years of unreliable services and weak infrastructure. Products that work seamlessly elsewhere often struggle locally because they fail to account for that trust deficit.

“They’re not digitally naïve,” he said. “They’ve just operated in low-trust environments. If something fails even once or twice, you lose them.”

That focus on trust has influenced how Kuda Microfinance Bank has approached its growth. Launched in 2019 as a digital-first bank, it expanded from roughly 100,000 customers within its first year to nearly 300,000 the next, before surging past 2 million customers in 2021. Today, the microfinance bank serves more than 7 million Nigerians, Mustapha said, describing the journey as less predictable than the numbers suggest.

“The reality is, you can’t forecast scale neatly,” he said. “You can wake up and suddenly have a huge spike in users. If your systems and people aren’t ready, you crumble.”

In his view, the strain on a fintech typically shows up first behind the scenes, not on its app. As volume increases, back-office functions such as reconciliation, chargebacks and customer support can quickly become chokepoints, eroding the trust that fintechs are trying to build. Founders, he said, often underestimate these operational demands in the early days while prioritising product development.

“Anything you don’t pay attention to in your first six months will come back to hurt you at scale,” he said.

External constraints add more complexity. Payment rails, power supply, and connectivity remain outside the control of most fintechs, making outages and delays inevitable. Rather than trying to outspend those limitations, Mustapha said companies must design around them by building redundancies and multiple pathways for critical services.

“You don’t assume perfection,” he said. “If one channel fails, there must be another. That’s how you stay reliable.”

As traditional banks, telcos, and startups increasingly compete for the same mass-market customers, Mustapha expects the winners to combine the strengths of each group — the capital base of banks, the distribution reach of telcos, and the speed of fintechs. But regardless of the model that dominates, he believes the fundamentals will remain the same.

For millions of first-time or underserved users, the deciding factor is simple: whether the service works every time.

“There’s this idea that the average customer can’t use sophisticated products,” he said. “That’s not the issue. What they want is something they can trust.”

As fintech chases its next phase of growth, trust, rather than incentives, may prove to be the sector’s most valuable currency.


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Majority of Nigerians do not Trust Govt with Tax Revenue – SBM

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Majority Nigerians do not trust the government to properly utilise their tax payments for good use, according to a survey by SBM Intelligence across nine cities.

Majority of Nigerians do not Trust Govt with Tax Revenue – SBM

The survey highlighted why recent tax reforms have triggered widespread anxiety and resistance.

“Survey data from 200 respondents across nine cities indicate that 68.5 percent of Nigerians completely distrust the government’s use of tax revenues, whereas only 27.5 percent view the reforms as beneficial to the country, ” SBM intelligence said in its recent report titled Taxing Patience.

Nigeria’s 2025 Tax Reform Acts took effect in January, introducing the most comprehensive overhaul of the tax framework in decades. The reform has created more awareness among Nigerians than ever before, increasing their further distrust in the government’s use of tax revenues.

The distrust reflects years of poor service delivery and weak accountability, shaping public doubt toward the new tax system despite assurances that the reforms are designed to ease burdens and improve fairness.

“In the past, people avoided tax because they felt the government wouldn’t provide basic amenities,” businessday quoted Okanlawon Hakeem, a Lagos-based businessman, as saying.

“You drill boreholes yourself, pay for public transport yourself, and sometimes fix your local road yourself. So, you ask yourself what the government is doing with the tax money.”

The SBM Intelligence report noted that access to reliable electricity, improved security and better roads were the clearest signals that would make tax compliance worthwhile.

“46 percent of participants identified improvements in roads and security as their primary motivation for tax compliance,” SBM Intelligence noted, explaining that service delivery, rather than enforcement alone, is likely to shape taxpayer behaviour.

Government officials have defended the changes as necessary to improve public finances and reduce Nigeria’s dependence on oil revenue, pointing to the country’s historically low tax-to-GDP ratio.

With a tax-to-GDP ratio of less than 10 percent, Nigeria has lagged behind regional peers such as Ghana and Kenya. Taiwo Oyedele, chairman presidential fiscal policy and tax committee, hopes the reforms will lift the ratio toward 18 percent over the medium term.

Public sentiment, however, has not moved in step with these fiscal ambitions. According to the report, only 27.5 percent of people believe that the new tax laws are good for the country.

The report also suggests that greater awareness of the reforms often coincides with stronger skepticism rather than acceptance.

Distrust cuts across regions and occupations but is especially pronounced in major commercial centres.

The report mentioned that people in Lagos and parts of the Northeast have the strongest resistance and protest sentiment, reflecting concerns about enforcement, fairness and legislative integrity.

In its Year Ahead 2026 outlook, SBM Intelligence projects that protests are likely as the real impact of the new framework becomes clearer. The report points to the June 2024 youth-led protests in Kenya, which resulted in a reversal of the policy.

In Nigeria, where inflation is only just beginning to show signs of easing, the tolerance for perceived government excesses, including lavish convoys and budget padding, is at an all-time low.

Business owners, traders and informal workers expressed particular unease, fearing the reforms could deepen the problem of double taxation. Many worry that government levies will exist alongside rather than replace the fees already collected by unions and non-state actors.

“ Nearly a third of business respondents said they expect to pay both official taxes and union fees,” the report stated.

For informal workers such as market traders, drivers and artisans, this fear is grounded in experience. Many already make daily payments to unions or associations, often under pressure.

Without a clear plan to eliminate these parallel charges, new government taxes are widely viewed as an additional burden rather than a simplification of the system.

In Lagos, Kano and Onitsha, constant electricity emerged as the strongest trigger for compliance. In Abuja, Port Harcourt and Bauchi, respondents prioritized roads and security. Across cities, the message was consistent: willingness to pay is conditional on visible outcomes.

Analysts warn that without clear improvements in service delivery, stronger enforcement could harden resistance rather than improve compliance.

The report stated that without rapid, visible improvements in public services, the government risks collecting more money while winning.


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