Broadcasting
Insecurity and Soaring Food Prices: Why CBN’s MPC Must Target the Real Enemy Despite Favourable Macroeconomic Tailwinds
By Blaise Udunze
Obviously, one would say that the macroeconomic indicators are finally pointing in the right direction, yet, daily realities for households and businesses tell a very different story because Nigeria stands at a delicate intersection. No doubt on paper, inflation is easing, the naira is stabilising, and sovereign ratings have improved; but food prices remain painfully high, purchasing power continues to deteriorate, and insecurity is ravaging the agricultural value chain while ensuring that any progress in inflation moderation remains fragile.
As the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) convenes its 303rd Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as its final meeting of the year on 24-25 November, the dilemma before it is clear: Should it respond to improving macroeconomic data with further monetary easing, or should it recognise that the true enemy of price stability is not merely monetary but structural, deeply rooted in insecurity and collapsing food supply?
The reality confronting the nation is that, despite the favourable macroeconomic tailwinds, Nigeria’s biggest inflationary threat is insecurity-induced food inflation, which remains largely unaddressed. Until the MPC anchors its decisions around this core challenge, monetary policy will continue to chase shadows.
A Fall in Inflation, but Not in Hardship
The National Bureau of Statistics’ latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed that inflation improved for the second consecutive month, falling sharply from 18.02 percent in September to 16.05 percent in October 2025, which is the lowest in 44 months. This moderation was driven by a new CPI base year and some easing in food prices.
Whilst the headline inflation has slowed, month-on-month inflation increased from 0.72 percent to 0.93 percent, underlining persistent price pressure at the household level. Nigerians are still struggling to pay more for food, transport, energy, housing, and essential services.
Obviously, the Organised Private Sector (OPS) welcomed the drop but quickly cautioned that it does not reflect real-life conditions.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, summarised this contradiction perfectly, “The sharp moderation in October inflation represents a significant win for macroeconomic stability. However, the full welfare benefits are yet to be felt due to persistent structural constraints, especially in food supply, transportation, energy, housing, and essential services.”
These “structural constraints,” in reality, are overwhelmingly traced to insecurity, which is the silent force disrupting agricultural production and distribution across Nigeria.
Food Inflation: The Heart of the Crisis
Presently, food inflation remains Nigeria’s most damaging and persevering price problem. Even with the October headline easing, food prices remain abnormally high.
Eke Ubiji, the Director-General of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME), flagged the inflation data as disconnected from reality, “Send people to the market now. A half-bag of rice goes for between N30,000 and N40,000. Before, a full bag was about N20,000. So, are we moving forward or backwards?”
This is not a mere anecdote; it is the lived experience of millions. Food inflation has remained structurally high for nearly five years, and the root cause is not monetary expansion; it is insecurity.
Across key food-producing belts like Benue, Plateau, Niger, Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara, Taraba, Kebbi, and Sokoto, farmers cannot access farmlands due to the following adverse factors:
– Banditry
– Terrorist attacks
– Herdsmen conflicts
– Kidnapping-for-ransom
– Destruction of crops and storage facilities
– Extortion and illegal “harvest taxes” by criminal groups
This is why the MPC’s decisions, no matter how sound, have limited impact. Monetary tightening cannot stop gunmen from attacking farmers. Interest rate adjustments cannot clear gridlocked rural roads. Liquidity controls cannot fix the collapse of rural markets emptied by chaos.
Femi Egbesola, the President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, echoes this lived tension, “All of this has not translated to tangible results in the lives of households and small businesses. It has been very tough, and it is even getting tougher.”
Without resolving insecurity, food inflation will continue to undermine every macroeconomic gain.
OPS: Nigerians Don’t Feel the Relief
Across all private-sector groups, one message is constant, inflation numbers are falling, but hardship remains high.
– SMEs are shutting down due to high input costs.
– Consumers’ purchasing power is collapsing.
– Operational costs remain higher.
– Food remains largely unaffordable.
According to Ubiji, there is no relationship between what is sustainable in the market and what they are quoting in their boardrooms.
This scepticism is rooted in the fact that food prices, by far the largest part of household spending, remain stubbornly high because insecurity continues to decimate supply.
Even the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) recognized that while there are “green shoots,” they are small and fragile.
LCCI President, Gabriel Idahosa, said, “A trend is being established… but Nigerians often doubt the inflation numbers because they do not see it on their dining table.”
The MPC must confront this reality: monetary policy cannot deliver price stability while insecurity is simultaneously destroying food production.
Improving Macroeconomic Indicators: A Window of Opportunity
Apparently, Nigeria’s macroeconomic fundamentals have improved significantly as inflation is moderating, FX liquidity is rising, the naira is strengthening, non-oil exports are growing, domestic production of refined petroleum is improving, S&P upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook, and GDP grew by 4.2 percent in Q2 and is projected to record 3.6-3.9 percent in Q3.
No doubt, these are important achievements that create fiscal and monetary space for reforms. But favourable indicators cannot cover the fact that Nigeria is still battling a food inflation crisis fueled by worsening insecurity. If the MPC does not align its policy response with this structural reality, monetary policy may remain misaligned with on-ground economic forces.
What Analysts Expect at the November MPC Meeting
Ahead of the MPC meeting, analysts remain divided. Some are calling for further easing. Umar Abdulqadir of CFG Africa believed the MPC should cut by at least 50bps, citing sustained disinflation, improved FX liquidity, better food supply conditions, and lower risk premia after S&P upgrade. He argued that high lending rates were constraining SME credit access and that a cut would “stimulate investment and bolster economic recovery.”
Similarly, Afrinvest’s Damilare Asimiyu projects a 25-50bps cut, citing favourable inflation trajectory, improved macro data, global central banks adopting mild dovish tones, and strong GDP growth. He believes cautious easing is justified.
Meanwhile, other analysts suggest a hold at 27 percent. Jessica Ifada of Rostrum Investment & Securities insists that the MPC should maintain September’s rate cuts, which are still filtering through the economy. CRR reduction has increased bank liquidity, and banks have largely met recapitalisation thresholds, while festive-season inflationary pressures are imminent. She further says that the revised policy corridor already guides short-term rates close to the MPR, limiting the need for immediate policy action.
Meanwhile, another set of analysts is calling for aggressive easing (up to 200bps). On Nairametrics’ “Drinks and Mics,” Rencap Asset Management’s Arnold Dublin-Green and Nairametrics CEO Ugodre Obi-Chukwu argue that MPC should cut rates by 200bps, pointing to decreasing yields across fixed-income instruments, lower inflation, and improved macro stability.
But Here Is the Real Issue: Monetary Policy Cannot Fix Insecurity
Regardless of the MPC’s decision, whether it cuts by 50bps, 200bps, or holds, Nigeria’s biggest inflationary threat remains structural insecurity. Three facts are undeniable:
1. Over 60 percent of Nigeria’s inflation is driven by food inflation
2. Food inflation is overwhelmingly driven by insecurity in farming communities.
3. No monetary policy tool like MPR, CRR, OMO, or interest-rate corridor can resolve insecurity.
Until Nigeria secures its food-producing regions:
– Farmers will stay away from farmlands.
– Food supply will remain inadequate.
– Transport costs will remain elevated.
– Market prices will continue to rise.
– Inflation will remain structurally high.
The MPC can only do so much with macro tools. The real work lies in addressing the insecurity choking Nigeria’s food supply chain.
What the MPC Must Do Differently
1. Overtly recognize insecurity as a core inflation driver
The MPC must move beyond generic references to “structural challenges” and specifically identify insecurity as the primary threat to price stability.
2. Collaborate with security agencies and governors
Price stability is impossible without coordinated policy across security, agriculture, and transportation ministries.
3. Recommend federal and state investments in food-producing regions, such as:
– Secured farming clusters
– Military-protected agro-corridors
– Subsidised insurance for farmers in high-risk zones
– Rural road rehabilitation
4. Prioritise credit schemes for agricultural security because credit without safety is meaningless.
5. Strengthen data collaboration
Many inflation-relevant data points, including farm output, rural insecurity, and transport disruptions, are outside the CBN’s traditional purview. It needs deeper data integration with:
– Ministry of Agriculture
– Ministry of Interior
– Security agencies
– State governments
– Farmer associations
The MPC Must Fight the Real Enemy
Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic metrics are encouraging, but they shade a deeper crisis. Structural insecurity choking the nation’s food supply remains as the true enemy of price stability is not monetary. The MPC cannot continue to focus exclusively on interest rates while overlooking the underlying forces driving food inflation. Until insecurity is tackled, Nigeria will continue to experience high food prices, collapsing purchasing power, SME closures, persistent inflation, and monetary policy disorganization.
The November meeting provides a historic opportunity for the MPC to shift its policy approach that recognises insecurity as a macroeconomic crisis, not a security issue alone.
Nigeria does not merely have a monetary policy problem. Nigeria has a food problem driven by insecurity. And until that problem is solved, macroeconomic gains will remain fragile and incomplete.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
Stakeholders in Nigeria’s broadcasting industry have endorsed a hybrid digital broadcasting model that combines Digital Terrestrial Television (DTT), Direct-to-Home (DTH) satellite services, and digital application-based platforms for the country’s Digital Switch Over (DSO) programme,
The resolution was reached at a high-level stakeholder meeting convened by the National Broadcasting Commission (NBC) under the supervision of the Federal Ministry of Information and National Orientation at NICON Luxury Hotel, Abuja.
The meeting, chaired by Alhaji Mohammed Idris, minister of Information and National Orientation, brought together regulators, broadcasters, signal distributors, set-top box manufacturers, content producers, satellite operators, and industry associations to chart a sustainable path for Nigeria’s long-delayed digital migration project.
Addressing stakeholders during the closed-door engagement session, the minister described the meeting as a collaborative effort aimed at finding practical solutions to challenges facing the DSO project.
“This engagement is a family discussion aimed at finding practical solutions to ensure the success of the Digital Switch Over project. Government has no hidden agenda, and all decisions will be guided by national interest, stakeholder inclusion, and the long-term sustainability of the broadcasting industry,” he said.
The minister acknowledged concerns raised by industry players regarding stakeholder consultation and participation in previous phases of the project, noting that while broader engagement should ideally have commenced earlier, there remained an opportunity to build consensus and move forward together.
“While there may be differing views on implementation approaches, there is broad agreement that Nigeria must complete its digital migration journey. We must work collectively to achieve this national objective,” he stated.
Mr Charles Ebuebu, director general, NBC, described the stakeholder meeting as “iconic”, noting that it marked a turning point in Nigeria’s efforts to complete the digital migration.
He said the country had spent over a decade on the DSO journey, missing several deadlines, but expressed optimism that a clear implementation plan was now being developed.
Ebuebu said the commission, in collaboration with stakeholders, is working toward a sustainable model that ensures return on investment for industry players while delivering value to the nation.
He said that the outcome of the consultation process would produce a unified framework for implementation and communication going forward.
Mrs Jane Nkechi Egerton-Idehen, managing director, Nigerian Communications Satellite (NIGCOMSAT), said the DSO initiative forms part of broader federal interventions aimed at building a sustainable broadcasting ecosystem.
She explained that government investments had supported satellite coverage, national call centres, and regional production studios across the country.
According to her, the objective is to address gaps in content distribution and ensure that Nigerian broadcasting reflects the country’s linguistic and cultural diversity.
“We are not departing from the original plan. We are innovating on how it is implemented,” she said.
She also highlighted efforts to expand access to production facilities across geopolitical zones to support content creators and reduce dependence on major urban centres.
The meeting attracted 128 participants, including the Director-General of the NBC; Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Information and National Orientation, Dr. BRM Ukire; Director-General of the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA), Abdulhamid Dambos; Director-General of the Advertising Regulatory Council of Nigeria (ARCON), Dr Olalekan Fadolapo; Chairman of the Broadcasting Organisations of Nigeria (BON), Chief Tony Akiotu; Managing Director of NIGCOMSAT Ltd, Mrs Jane Nkechi Egerton-Idehen; and representatives of licensed broadcasters and other industry stakeholders.
During deliberations, stakeholders agreed that the DSO project remains both necessary and desirable for Nigeria, emphasising that the transition should prioritise national interest, industry sustainability, local content development, local manufacturing, and job creation.
Among the key resolutions reached was the affirmation that Digital Terrestrial Television (DTT) remains a critical component of the DSO framework and should not be discontinued. Participants also agreed on the need to reconstitute the DigiTeam implementation platform to provide a structured mechanism for consultation, collaboration, and industry participation.
Stakeholders further called for stronger engagement between regulators and industry players, with an agreement that stakeholder meetings would be held at least quarterly to ensure continuous alignment on implementation strategies.
The meeting also welcomed ongoing efforts by the NBC and ARCON to develop a sustainable business model aimed at improving audience measurement systems, strengthening advertising revenue generation, and enhancing the long-term viability of broadcasting organisations.
In addition, stakeholders were assured by NIGCOMSAT of the reliability of satellite infrastructure supporting the DSO platform.
The company disclosed that backup arrangements with alternative satellite operators were already in place to guarantee uninterrupted service and eliminate the need for subscriber dish realignment.
As part of the agreed next steps, the Federal Government, through the Ministry of Information and National Orientation, will reconstitute the DigiTeam stakeholder platform, while the NBC will continue consultations with set-top box manufacturers and other industry stakeholders to address concerns relating to existing investments and future participation in the digital broadcasting ecosystem.
The stakeholders expressed confidence that the renewed collaborative approach would accelerate Nigeria’s digital migration, improve broadcasting services, expand audience reach, attract investment, create jobs, and deliver greater value to Nigerian consumers.
MTN Group has begun rolling out MTN One TV, a new entertainment proposition designed to make digital video content more accessible, relevant, and flexible for customers across African markets.
Introduced in line with MTN’s Ambition 2030 strategy, MTN One TV brings together local storytelling, live channels, international programming, and market-specific viewing options tailored to how customers across the continent access and pay for digital entertainment.
The proposition is designed to give customers greater choice in how they watch content, with viewing models that may vary by market and can include free-to-view content, advertising-funded experiences, pay-as-you-watch access, and subscription offerings.
Depending on local availability, customers may also be able to pay through airtime, Mobile Money, and other locally supported payment methods, helping to reduce common barriers to streaming access.
Beyond enhancing customer experiences, MTN One TV creates new opportunities for African creators, broadcasters, advertisers, and ecosystem partners by helping connect content to wider audiences through MTN’s scale across connectivity, payments, and digital services.
By bringing together a broad mix of content experiences under a single proposition, MTN aims to support greater content discovery, broader audience reach, and sustainable growth across Africa’s digital entertainment ecosystem.
Anchored in MTN’s strategic platforms of Connectivity, Fintech, and Digital Infrastructure, MTN One TV forms part of the Group’s broader ambition to build digital experiences that create value for customers while enabling participation and growth across Africa’s digital economy.
“Entertainment is increasingly becoming an important gateway to digital participation,” said Selorm Adadevoh, MTN group chief commercial, strategy and transformation officer.
“Through MTN One TV, we are leveraging the scale of our connectivity, fintech, and digital capabilities to make relevant content more accessible while creating new opportunities for Africa’s creative and digital economies. This is aligned with our ambition to deliver digital solutions for Africa’s progress.”
MTN One TV is being introduced progressively across MTN markets through a phased rollout approach that reflects local market needs, existing services, and partnership opportunities.
Over time, MTN will bring together a combination of video capabilities, content partnerships, and customer experiences under the MTN One TV brand to create a more consistent and scalable entertainment proposition across its footprint.
Through MTN One TV, MTN continues to extend its role beyond connectivity by combining entertainment, payments, and digital services to deliver experiences tailored to the needs of African consumers.
The rollout supports MTN’s Ambition 2030 vision of leading digital solutions for Africa’s progress while expanding access to digital entertainment across the continent.
International Air Transport Association (IATA) has identified Nigeria as one of the most expensive countries in the world for airline operations, citing high taxes, charges and operational costs that continue to weigh heavily on local carriers.
IATA’s Regional Vice President for Africa and the Middle East, Kamil Al-Awadhi, disclosed this during the association’s Annual General Meeting held in Rio de Janeiro.
Al-Awadhi said that although Nigeria’s Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, had been pursuing reforms aimed at improving the aviation sector, airlines operating in the country still faced enormous cost pressures.
According to him, the high-cost operating environment has continued to affect the profitability and competitiveness of Nigerian airlines, making it difficult for the industry to realise its full potential.
He noted that excessive taxes, regulatory charges and other operating expenses remained major obstacles to airline growth across the region, with Nigeria ranking among the most challenging markets from a cost perspective.
Al-Awadhi urged member states of the Economic Community of West African States to adopt a proposed 25 per cent reduction in aviation taxes and charges to ease the burden on airlines and passengers.
According to him, lowering taxes and charges would reduce airfares, stimulate passenger traffic and strengthen the competitiveness of carriers operating within West Africa.
He stressed that a more supportive policy environment was critical to unlocking the economic benefits of aviation, including increased trade, tourism and regional integration.
Industry stakeholders have consistently advocated lower taxes and regulatory fees, arguing that the current cost structure makes air travel less affordable and limits the growth of the sector.
IATA’s latest remarks add to calls for governments in West Africa to implement policies that will promote a more sustainable and competitive aviation industry across the region.
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