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Insecurity and Soaring Food Prices: Why CBN’s MPC Must Target the Real Enemy Despite Favourable Macroeconomic Tailwinds
By Blaise Udunze
Obviously, one would say that the macroeconomic indicators are finally pointing in the right direction, yet, daily realities for households and businesses tell a very different story because Nigeria stands at a delicate intersection. No doubt on paper, inflation is easing, the naira is stabilising, and sovereign ratings have improved; but food prices remain painfully high, purchasing power continues to deteriorate, and insecurity is ravaging the agricultural value chain while ensuring that any progress in inflation moderation remains fragile.
As the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) convenes its 303rd Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as its final meeting of the year on 24-25 November, the dilemma before it is clear: Should it respond to improving macroeconomic data with further monetary easing, or should it recognise that the true enemy of price stability is not merely monetary but structural, deeply rooted in insecurity and collapsing food supply?
The reality confronting the nation is that, despite the favourable macroeconomic tailwinds, Nigeria’s biggest inflationary threat is insecurity-induced food inflation, which remains largely unaddressed. Until the MPC anchors its decisions around this core challenge, monetary policy will continue to chase shadows.
A Fall in Inflation, but Not in Hardship
The National Bureau of Statistics’ latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed that inflation improved for the second consecutive month, falling sharply from 18.02 percent in September to 16.05 percent in October 2025, which is the lowest in 44 months. This moderation was driven by a new CPI base year and some easing in food prices.
Whilst the headline inflation has slowed, month-on-month inflation increased from 0.72 percent to 0.93 percent, underlining persistent price pressure at the household level. Nigerians are still struggling to pay more for food, transport, energy, housing, and essential services.
Obviously, the Organised Private Sector (OPS) welcomed the drop but quickly cautioned that it does not reflect real-life conditions.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, summarised this contradiction perfectly, “The sharp moderation in October inflation represents a significant win for macroeconomic stability. However, the full welfare benefits are yet to be felt due to persistent structural constraints, especially in food supply, transportation, energy, housing, and essential services.”
These “structural constraints,” in reality, are overwhelmingly traced to insecurity, which is the silent force disrupting agricultural production and distribution across Nigeria.
Food Inflation: The Heart of the Crisis
Presently, food inflation remains Nigeria’s most damaging and persevering price problem. Even with the October headline easing, food prices remain abnormally high.
Eke Ubiji, the Director-General of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME), flagged the inflation data as disconnected from reality, “Send people to the market now. A half-bag of rice goes for between N30,000 and N40,000. Before, a full bag was about N20,000. So, are we moving forward or backwards?”
This is not a mere anecdote; it is the lived experience of millions. Food inflation has remained structurally high for nearly five years, and the root cause is not monetary expansion; it is insecurity.
Across key food-producing belts like Benue, Plateau, Niger, Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara, Taraba, Kebbi, and Sokoto, farmers cannot access farmlands due to the following adverse factors:
– Banditry
– Terrorist attacks
– Herdsmen conflicts
– Kidnapping-for-ransom
– Destruction of crops and storage facilities
– Extortion and illegal “harvest taxes” by criminal groups
This is why the MPC’s decisions, no matter how sound, have limited impact. Monetary tightening cannot stop gunmen from attacking farmers. Interest rate adjustments cannot clear gridlocked rural roads. Liquidity controls cannot fix the collapse of rural markets emptied by chaos.
Femi Egbesola, the President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, echoes this lived tension, “All of this has not translated to tangible results in the lives of households and small businesses. It has been very tough, and it is even getting tougher.”
Without resolving insecurity, food inflation will continue to undermine every macroeconomic gain.
OPS: Nigerians Don’t Feel the Relief
Across all private-sector groups, one message is constant, inflation numbers are falling, but hardship remains high.
– SMEs are shutting down due to high input costs.
– Consumers’ purchasing power is collapsing.
– Operational costs remain higher.
– Food remains largely unaffordable.
According to Ubiji, there is no relationship between what is sustainable in the market and what they are quoting in their boardrooms.
This scepticism is rooted in the fact that food prices, by far the largest part of household spending, remain stubbornly high because insecurity continues to decimate supply.
Even the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) recognized that while there are “green shoots,” they are small and fragile.
LCCI President, Gabriel Idahosa, said, “A trend is being established… but Nigerians often doubt the inflation numbers because they do not see it on their dining table.”
The MPC must confront this reality: monetary policy cannot deliver price stability while insecurity is simultaneously destroying food production.
Improving Macroeconomic Indicators: A Window of Opportunity
Apparently, Nigeria’s macroeconomic fundamentals have improved significantly as inflation is moderating, FX liquidity is rising, the naira is strengthening, non-oil exports are growing, domestic production of refined petroleum is improving, S&P upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook, and GDP grew by 4.2 percent in Q2 and is projected to record 3.6-3.9 percent in Q3.
No doubt, these are important achievements that create fiscal and monetary space for reforms. But favourable indicators cannot cover the fact that Nigeria is still battling a food inflation crisis fueled by worsening insecurity. If the MPC does not align its policy response with this structural reality, monetary policy may remain misaligned with on-ground economic forces.
What Analysts Expect at the November MPC Meeting
Ahead of the MPC meeting, analysts remain divided. Some are calling for further easing. Umar Abdulqadir of CFG Africa believed the MPC should cut by at least 50bps, citing sustained disinflation, improved FX liquidity, better food supply conditions, and lower risk premia after S&P upgrade. He argued that high lending rates were constraining SME credit access and that a cut would “stimulate investment and bolster economic recovery.”
Similarly, Afrinvest’s Damilare Asimiyu projects a 25-50bps cut, citing favourable inflation trajectory, improved macro data, global central banks adopting mild dovish tones, and strong GDP growth. He believes cautious easing is justified.
Meanwhile, other analysts suggest a hold at 27 percent. Jessica Ifada of Rostrum Investment & Securities insists that the MPC should maintain September’s rate cuts, which are still filtering through the economy. CRR reduction has increased bank liquidity, and banks have largely met recapitalisation thresholds, while festive-season inflationary pressures are imminent. She further says that the revised policy corridor already guides short-term rates close to the MPR, limiting the need for immediate policy action.
Meanwhile, another set of analysts is calling for aggressive easing (up to 200bps). On Nairametrics’ “Drinks and Mics,” Rencap Asset Management’s Arnold Dublin-Green and Nairametrics CEO Ugodre Obi-Chukwu argue that MPC should cut rates by 200bps, pointing to decreasing yields across fixed-income instruments, lower inflation, and improved macro stability.
But Here Is the Real Issue: Monetary Policy Cannot Fix Insecurity
Regardless of the MPC’s decision, whether it cuts by 50bps, 200bps, or holds, Nigeria’s biggest inflationary threat remains structural insecurity. Three facts are undeniable:
1. Over 60 percent of Nigeria’s inflation is driven by food inflation
2. Food inflation is overwhelmingly driven by insecurity in farming communities.
3. No monetary policy tool like MPR, CRR, OMO, or interest-rate corridor can resolve insecurity.
Until Nigeria secures its food-producing regions:
– Farmers will stay away from farmlands.
– Food supply will remain inadequate.
– Transport costs will remain elevated.
– Market prices will continue to rise.
– Inflation will remain structurally high.
The MPC can only do so much with macro tools. The real work lies in addressing the insecurity choking Nigeria’s food supply chain.
What the MPC Must Do Differently
1. Overtly recognize insecurity as a core inflation driver
The MPC must move beyond generic references to “structural challenges” and specifically identify insecurity as the primary threat to price stability.
2. Collaborate with security agencies and governors
Price stability is impossible without coordinated policy across security, agriculture, and transportation ministries.
3. Recommend federal and state investments in food-producing regions, such as:
– Secured farming clusters
– Military-protected agro-corridors
– Subsidised insurance for farmers in high-risk zones
– Rural road rehabilitation
4. Prioritise credit schemes for agricultural security because credit without safety is meaningless.
5. Strengthen data collaboration
Many inflation-relevant data points, including farm output, rural insecurity, and transport disruptions, are outside the CBN’s traditional purview. It needs deeper data integration with:
– Ministry of Agriculture
– Ministry of Interior
– Security agencies
– State governments
– Farmer associations
The MPC Must Fight the Real Enemy
Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic metrics are encouraging, but they shade a deeper crisis. Structural insecurity choking the nation’s food supply remains as the true enemy of price stability is not monetary. The MPC cannot continue to focus exclusively on interest rates while overlooking the underlying forces driving food inflation. Until insecurity is tackled, Nigeria will continue to experience high food prices, collapsing purchasing power, SME closures, persistent inflation, and monetary policy disorganization.
The November meeting provides a historic opportunity for the MPC to shift its policy approach that recognises insecurity as a macroeconomic crisis, not a security issue alone.
Nigeria does not merely have a monetary policy problem. Nigeria has a food problem driven by insecurity. And until that problem is solved, macroeconomic gains will remain fragile and incomplete.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
Enugu State Government has approved an increase in the minimum wage for workers of the Enugu State University of Science and Technology (ESUT) from N32,000 to N82,000 monthly, effective Sept. 1, 2026.
The approval was contained in a letter dated Aug. 11, 2026, signed by the Secretary to the Enugu State Government, Prof. Chidiebere Onyia, and addressed to the Accountant-General of the state.
According to the letter, the decision followed a report submitted by the Joint Action Committee on Trade Union (JACTU) at ESUT on issues surrounding a one-month strike ultimatum issued by the university’s unions.
The state government also approved an across-the-board salary increase of N50,000 for all other categories of staff at the university.
Onyia directed the Accountant-General to fully implement the approval of Gov. Peter Ndubuisi Mbah.
The directive referenced an earlier Government House letter dated Aug. 7, 2026.
A copy of the approval was also forwarded to the Vice-Chancellor of ESUT, Prof. Aloysius-Michaels Okolie, for information and necessary action.
Speaking on the development at the 278th Regular Meeting of the University Senate on Wednesday, Okolie said the university was continuing discussions with the state government to secure improved welfare for its workforce.
He disclosed that governors in the South-East had agreed to provide at least a 20 per cent salary increase for workers in state-owned universities across the region.
The vice-chancellor, however, noted that individual governors could approve salary increases above the regional benchmark.
Okolie thanked Gov. Mbah for implementing the N80,000 minimum wage and for his interventions in infrastructure and academic development at the university.
He also appealed to union leaders to allow the university management to conclude its ongoing negotiations with the state government on staff welfare.
The vice-chancellor said continued engagement between the university management, government and labour unions remained important to resolving outstanding welfare issues and sustaining industrial harmony at ESUT.
David Adeleke, popularly known as Davido, has declared that no Nigerian artiste has more hit songs than him, challenging his peers to a hit-for-hit contest with $1 million at stake.
The Afrobeats superstar, made the declaration during a recent online interaction with streamer Davrel, where he expressed confidence in the strength of his music catalogue.
Key Highlights:
- Davido says he is ready to stake $1 million in a hit-for-hit battle.
- The singer claims no Nigerian artiste has more hit songs than him.
- His challenge could reignite comparisons with Wizkid, Burna Boy and Olamide.
- No major artiste mentioned in the debate had accepted the challenge as of the time of filing.
“I will put up a $1M on the table. I will do it versus anybody. A million dollars cash, nobody has more hits than me,” Davido said.
The declaration is likely to renew the long-running debate among Afrobeats fans over which Nigerian artiste has the strongest catalogue of commercially successful songs.
Davido, whose career spans more than a decade, has recorded several commercially successful songs, including Fall, If, FIA, Risky, Blow My Mind, Unavailable, Assurance and Feel.
His claim could set up a potential catalogue battle with some of Nigeria’s biggest music stars, including Wizkid, Burna Boy, Olamide, Runtown and Tekno.
The statement also recalls the hit-for-hit debate involving Burna Boy during the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020.
Burna Boy had called for a competitive song battle, while former Mavin Records artiste Reekado Banks reportedly expressed interest. Burna Boy, however, rejected him as an opponent.
Six years later, Davido’s $1 million challenge has brought the idea back into the spotlight.
As of the time of filing, none of the major artistes indirectly referenced by Davido had publicly accepted the challenge.
Whether the proposed contest becomes reality remains uncertain.
For now, Davido has made his position clear and is willing to attach $1 million to his claim that no contemporary Nigerian artiste has a stronger catalogue of hit songs.
Nigeria’s pay-TV industry is facing one of its toughest periods in years as consumers increasingly migrate from conventional antenna and decoder-based television services to cheaper, more flexible and on-demand streaming platforms
The shift is putting pressure on established operators, such as MultiChoice, owners of DStv and GOtv; StarTimes and other traditional pay-TV providers, whose business models have long depended on recurring monthly subscriptions as per report by Business Hallmark.
According to Business Hallmark, the changing consumer behaviour is being driven by a combination of factors, including demographic transition, rising subscription costs, declining household purchasing power, improved internet access and the growing popularity of streaming services that allow viewers to pay for specific content or watch programmes at their convenience.
Streaming platforms are steadily expanding their appeal, offering consumers access to movies, sports (especially football matches and wrestling bouts), local content and international programs through smartphones, smart televisions and other internet-enabled devices.
Also, the proliferation of affordable data packages and connected devices has lowered the barrier to entry, allowing consumers to bypass traditional decoders altogether and consume content directly online.
Three of the major factors behind the changing behaviour of Nigerian television consumers are growing internet access, economic squeeze and changing demography.
Pay-TV subscriptions, once regarded by many households as a relatively affordable source of entertainment, are now competing with several other demands on disposable income.
For instance, entertainment spending are increasingly being subjected to tougher scrutiny with household budgets under pressure from food, tuition, transportation, electricity, housing and other essential costs.
Business Hallmark checks revealed that frequent price reviews by MultiChoice Nigeria’s have pushed the firm’s products beyond the reach of many Nigerians.
One of its products, GOtv, initially designed for average Nigerians, has six packages, namely GOtv Supa Plus, GOtv Supa, Gotv Max, GOtv Jolli, GOtv Jinja and GOtv Smallie.
GOtv Supa Plus with over 85+ channels currently goes for a monthly subscription fee of N16,800; GOtv Supa N11,400; Gotv Max N8,500; GOtv Jolli N5,800; GOtv Jinja N3,900, while GOtv Smallie subscribers choose between the N1,900/monthly, N5,100/quarterly and N15,000/annually options.
Similarly, following multiple tariff reviews, DStv Premium currently goes for N44,500 monthly; DStv Compact Plus N30,000; DStv Compact N19,000; DStv Confam N11,000; DStv Yanga N6,000 and DStv Padi N4,400.
On the other hand, StarTimes, which serves its customers through antenna signal transmission and satellite transmission, has only three bouquets, Nova, Basic, and Classic.
While Classic, the most expensive bouquet on the StarTimes’ shelf currently cost N6,000 monthly, Basic costs N4,000, while Nova costs N2,100.
While speaking to our correspondent on the major shift, some consumers explained that the choice is no longer between different pay-TV providers but between maintaining a television subscription and cancelling it altogether.
Eighty-two Nigerians, representing 68% of the 120 Pay-TV subscribers, who participated in an online survey conducted by Business Hallmark, said they opted for less expensive and more flexible alternatives, including YouTube and a growing range of streaming platforms, using smartphones, laptops, smart televisions and other internet-enabled devices to access entertainment.Geographic Reference
According to the respondents, the shift towards streaming lies partly in its flexibility. Instead of waiting for a program to be broadcast at a scheduled time, viewers now search for specific films, series, sporting events or other contents, which can be watched immediately, or downloaded to be watched or listened to later.
“I now watch contents when I want, across multiple devices, without necessarily being tied to the traditional channel and time-based television experience”, said Tolu Olamiti, an accountant in an audit firm in Lagos.
Another factor that is fueling the exodus from pay-TV model is the growing youth population. Checks revealed that online streaming is particularly attractive to phone-savvy younger viewers, whose television consumption habits are markedly different from those of previous generations.
While underage children watch cartoons and educational programs mostly from their parents or older siblings internet-enabled gadgets, teenagers and adults now watch news, sports programs and films through live streaming or download preferred programs to be watched later.
“With N200 data, I can download several new films to be watched at my convenience, instead of the old films, which providers always repeat on their channels. I also listen to music through out the day without worrying about electricity as my phone can go 2 days after full charge”, said Chukwuemeka Ibe, a student of Lagos State University (LASU).
In the same vein, access to fast and cheap internet plans is helping to drive the streaming surge. For instance, a subscriber can get a daily 1G data plan on the MTN Nigeria platform for just N200. This data plan can be used to download up to 1,000MB movies, or for streaming several hours of music online.
According to official statistics from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), internet consumption in Nigeria reached 13.2 million terabytes in 2025, representing a 35 per cent increase from 2024, while average monthly data usage per active subscriber increased from 3.3 gigabytes in January 2023 to 7.4 gigabytes by May 2025.Geographic Reference
The NCC data indicates growing reliance on mobile internet services and digital platforms across the country with active internet subscriptions rising from 169.3 million in January 2025 to 182.2 million by January 2026.
Also, active internet subscriptions also surpassed 142 million.
Before the advent of internet, traditional pay-TV operators had ruled the television viewing industry largely through channel packages, exclusive content and decoder penetration. However, the rise of streaming has fundamentally altered the competitive landscape of Nigeria’s entertainment industry.
Fueled by the spread of smart devices and improved internet connectivity, streaming companies have been able to compete with traditional TV and radio providers through original programming, on-demand access, convenient timing and increased personalized viewing experiences.
A subscriber, who previously needed a satellite dish or digital terrestrial television decoder to access premium entertainment, can now use a smartphone or smart television and an internet connection.
The proliferation of affordable smartphones has further accelerated the process. Mobile phones have become entertainment devices for millions of Nigerians, particularly younger consumers, who spend more time watching short-form videos, movies and online programs than conventional television.
Also, social media platforms have become important competitors for consumers’ limited attention. YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and other digital platforms provide enormous volumes of free or relatively inexpensive video content, forcing traditional broadcasters to compete not only for subscribers but also for viewers’ time.
Several pay-TV subscribers, who spoke to our correspondent on the matter, said providers can no longer justify the traditional model of paying a fixed monthly fee for hundreds of channels they rarely watch.
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