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Investors Scramble for Nigeria’s Bonds Despite Recession

Investors are lining up to buy dollar bonds Nigeria is expected to issue soon despite the country’s first recession in a quarter of a century, a currency crisis and budget shortfalls driven by low oil prices.
On the face of it, the $1 billion ($A1.3 billion) of bonds Nigeria hopes to sell by the end of March might seem unattractive, especially at a time sentiment towards African debt has soured after Mozambique missed a coupon payment.
But investors hungry for higher returns in a low interest rate environment reckon Nigeria’s benign debt levels, recovering foreign exchange reserves and a potential yield above seven per cent are reasons enough to look beyond the country’s economic woes.
“Nigeria’s starting position is one of low debt so if they price it attractively they will be able to get it done,” said Claudia Calich, who manages an emerging market bond fund at M&G Investments.
Nigeria’s Eurobond has been a long time coming. A year ago, Nigeria appeared to have shelved the idea in favour of a loan from China, but it embarked on an investor roadshow for the bond late last year in the United States and Britain.
Nigeria is Africa’s biggest economy, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and vies with Angola for the position of top oil producer, but that also means it is very exposed to fluctuations in the oil market.
The last time Nigeria issued dollar-denominated bonds in July 2013, oil was comfortably above $US100 a barrel but the slump in prices from $US115 in June 2014 to just $US28 a barrel by January 2016 has hurt the West African country’s economy.
Crude oil sales account for two-thirds of government revenue and about 90 per cent of foreign exchange earnings so the price slide, coupled with a resurgence in militant attacks on oil facilities in the Niger Delta, have had a severe impact.
According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s economy probably shrank 1.7 per cent in 2016, underperforming an average growth rate of 1.5 per cent across sub-Saharan Africa and way behind high-flying economies such as Ivory Coast.
Foreign investment has almost ground to a halt, hobbled by a slide in the naira currency – which trades on the black market at about 40 per cent below the official rate of 300 per dollar – and expectations the currency may have to be devalued again.
World Bank data shows net foreign direct investment tumbled to just over $US3 billion in 2015 from nearly $US9 billion in 2011 and the government needs to borrow $US3.5 billion internationally this year to balance a record 2017 budget.
International lenders such as the World Bank and African Development Bank (AfDB) are also holding back on loans until Nigeria comes up with a plan to make its economy more resilient.
Yet, bond investors seem undeterred.
They argue that a Eurobond issued in dollars will shield them from currency risk and, compared to its African peers, Nigeria has a low ratio of public debt to annual economic output, implying that default is not a worry.
The ratio of Nigeria’s total public debt to gross domestic product is 22 per cent compared with 46 per cent in Gabon, 62 per cent in Ghana or 73 per cent in Angola, according to estimates by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
While businesses in Nigeria are having trouble getting hold of dollars, the country’s foreign exchange reserves are on the rise again. They hit an eight-month high of $US26.6 billion at the start of 2017 and have since climbed to $US28.9 billion.
“The government has access to hard currency even if they are restricting the access of other agents in the economy,” said Kieran Curtis, investment director at Standard Life Investments, who also plans to look at Nigeria’s upcoming bond issue.
Curtis reckons that Nigeria’s low debt ratios will allow it to borrow more cheaply than Ghana. Nigeria’s existing 2023 dollar bond yields about 6.7 per cent, or 170 basis points lower than Ghana’s 2023 bond.
Egypt, which has a credit rating of B-minus/B3/B from the main agencies, was marketing $US4 billion of Eurobonds in three tranches on Tuesday, offering a 10-year bond at 7.5 per cent. Nigeria is rated one to two notches higher at B/B1/B plus.
Nigeria’s last 10-year bond sold in July 2013 had a 6.375 per cent coupon but Exotix Partners head of fixed income research Stuart Culverhouse said a new issue would have to offer a yield of 7.0 per cent to 7.5 per cent.
“(Nigeria) might have to accept that people are charging more for them because of the situation. It could be a reality check,” he said.
If the country were to press ahead with reforms to alleviate pressure on the naira before issuing a bond, it could help lower the cost of borrowing, M&G’s Calich said.
“Then they could bring a new deal at tighter spreads. The big question is the currency regime.”
Although oil prices are now expected to stabilise above $US50 following OPEC’s decision to curb output, there are a few more clouds on the horizon.
The budget deficit for 2017 risks ballooning further as the government tries to boost the economy with record spending on roads and power.
Many also see the budget’s oil output projection of 2.2 million barrels per day as optimistic. Oil production, curbed by persistent attacks in the Niger Delta, was just 1.63 million barrels a day in the third quarter and was still below 1.8 million barrels per day in December.
Second, while emerging economies have been tapping the market in near-record numbers in January, sub-Saharan African borrowers have been absent and Mozambique’s coupon miss has not helped.
But Calich said there were no such fears for Nigeria.
“It will take a big shock to get into that kind of distress … we are far from that at this point.”
News
FRC, ICPC Seal Anti-corruption Alliance

The Fiscal Responsibility Commission (FRC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to enhance institutional synergy and accountability in public finance management.

The partnership is also to deepen transparency and strengthen the fight against corruption in Nigeria.
The Executive Chairman of the FRC, Mr. Victor Muruako, and the Executive Chairman of the ICPC, Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, expressed profound satisfaction over the partnership, describing the signing as timely and symbolic, coming on a day dedicated globally to integrity, transparency, and the fight against corruption.
Speaking at the ceremony, both chairmen reaffirmed their agency’s shared commitment to prudent management of Nigeria’s resources, fiscal discipline, and the coordinated strategies to confront corruption and financial mismanagement.
Under the MoU, both agencies will collaborate extensively in capacity building, joint investigations, information sharing, asset recovery, and enforcement operations.
The ICPC, through its Anti-Corruption Academy of Nigeria (ACAN), will provide specialised training to FRC staff in forensic investigations, financial crime detection, digital evidence recovery, and prosecution strategies. In turn, both agencies will exchange resource persons for workshops and public enlightenment programmes.
The agreement further empowers both institutions to conduct joint investigations and coordinated operations where violations cut across the mandates of both the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007 and the ICPC Act, 2000. It also establishes a framework for mutual assistance in tracing, freezing, confiscating, and recovering stolen public funds.
On information sharing, the MoU guarantees the confidential exchange of intelligence, financial records, and technical data, while upholding strict ethical standards and full compliance with all applicable laws.
According to the parties, the collaboration will significantly enhance Nigeria’s anti-corruption architecture by eliminating institutional silos and strengthening enforcement outcomes.
The Memorandum of Understanding, which can be terminated with a 30-day notice by either party, marks a renewed and expanded phase of cooperation between the two key integrity institutions.
The signing ceremony concluded with both chairmen reaffirming their resolve to work tirelessly to promote accountability, transparency, and sustainable national development in line with the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and existing anti-corruption laws.
Meanwhile, the Chairman of the FRC, Victor Muruako, has commended the ICPC Chairman, Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, and his team for sustaining the Commission’s legacy as one of Nigeria’s frontline anti-corruption institutions. Muruako particularly highlighted the signing of the MoU between the two agencies, describing it as a major step toward strengthening inter-agency collaboration in tackling corruption at all levels of government.
According to him, both agencies have, in recent months, intensified joint efforts to enhance accountability and prevent corruption at the local government level. These efforts, he noted, focus on improved budget preparation, prudent management of public funds, and the modernisation of tax, financial and asset administration systems.
He emphasised that where acts of corruption are detected, the law must take its full course to deter future offenders.
News
Debt Rises in AI Data Centre Boom

As AI fever has propelled global stocks to record highs, the data centres needed to power the technology are increasingly being financed with debt, adding to concerns about the risks.

A UBS report last month said AI data centre and project financing deals surged to $125 billion so far this year, from $15 billion in the same period in 2024, with more supply from the sector expected to be pivotal for credit markets in 2026.
“Public and private credit seems to have become a major source of funding for AI investments, and its rapid growth raised some concerns,” said Anton Dombrovskiy, fixed income portfolio specialist at T. Rowe Price.
“Although up until now an increase in supply has been met with relatively healthy demand, this is the area to watch especially taking into account large financing needs estimates,” Dombrovskiy added.
The Bank of England warned last week that the growing role of debt in the AI infrastructure boom could heighten potential financial stability risks if valuations correct.
Christopher Kramer, portfolio manager and senior trader on Investment Grade Credit team at Neuberger told Reuters that the market has seen a structural shift as the largest technology companies finance their AI infrastructure ambitions.
“They really haven’t been focal points in our market from a debt issuance standpoint, and that’s obviously shifting really dramatically … anytime you have that, it creates a lot of opportunity,” he said on November 28.
“We’re excited just from the standpoint that the market’s changing. You’re going to have a different dynamic, it creates an opportunity to take risks and create value for our investors,” Kramer added.
News
FG to Use Digital Economy Initiatives to Curb Corruption Among Youth

Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, has said that Federal Government is intensifying its use of digital-economy initiatives to curb corruption among young Nigerians.

Speaking at the commemoration of the 2025 International Anti-Corruption Day held on Tuesday in Abuja, the AGF said the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has deliberately positioned technology, innovation training, and digital-skills development at the heart of its anti-corruption strategy for young people.
The event, organized by Technical Unit on Governance and Anti-Corruption Reforms (TUGAR) domiciled at the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) had the theme: “Uniting with Youth Against Corruption: Shaping Tomorrow’s Integrity”.
Fagbemi, who delivered the keynote address, said the government believes that empowered, skilled and economically engaged youths are less vulnerable to corrupt influences.
According to him, programmes such as the 3 Million Technical Talents Programme (3MTT) and the recently launched Nigerian Youth Academy (NiYA) are already equipping millions of young Nigerians with ICT and digital-innovation skills, reducing their dependence on patronage systems that fuel corrupt practices.
“A hopeful youth is harder to corrupt; an engaged youth is harder to mislead; and an empowered youth is a powerful force for national transformation,” Fagbemi said.
He explained that by investing in digital literacy, tech entrepreneurship and innovation-driven training, the Tinubu administration aims to create a generation of young Nigerians who are globally competitive and resistant to corruption.
Beyond digital skills, the AGF pointed at several government efforts to expand educational access through the Nigeria Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), and support youth entrepreneurship via the Nigeria Youth Investment Fund (NYIF) and the iDICE programme, providing funding, training and mentorship for young innovators in tech, entertainment, agriculture and design.
Fagbemi added that the inclusion of young people in governance, through appointments and expanded civic-engagement platforms, was another strategic tool to strengthen integrity and transparency in public life.
He urged stakeholders to deepen efforts to integrate anti-corruption values into school curricula, establish integrity clubs, mentor young leaders, and leverage ICT tools to promote transparency, whistleblowing and public accountability.
Earlier, the Head of TUGAR, Mrs Jane Onwumere said the gathering was especially meaningful because it reflected a shared truth: that tomorrow’s integrity rests significantly in the hands of the youth.
“The theme therefore, is not just a slogan but a call to action and a reminder that young people are not only beneficiaries of good governance, they are co-architects of it.
“Corruption has affected lives and the economy negatively in many ways. One of such is the “japa wave” which has seen young Nigerians leave the country in droves in search of greener pastures. This syndrome has drained the country of resources and human capital. It has in many situations split the family unit, a critical foundation for anti-corruption efforts”, Onwumere, added.
In his speech, the Executive Secretary, NEITI, Hon. Musa Sarkin Adar expressed the agency’s commitment to empowering young Nigerians not only as advocates for accountability but also as active partners in shaping the future of integrity in the extractive industries and beyond.
“At NEITI, we recognize that corruption undermines opportunities for growth, distorts resource governance, and deepens inequality. We also know that a united, informed, and courageous generation can dismantle these barriers.
“This is why NEITI will continue to expand civic education, strengthen our reporting mechanisms, support youth-led innovation, and create more platforms for constructive engagement with young professionals, students, and entrepreneurs”, he added.
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