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Iran-Israel-US Conflict and CBN’s FX Gains: A Stress Test for Nigeria’s Monetary Stability

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Blaise Udunze

At the 304th policy meeting held on Wednesday, the 25th February, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee cut the rate by 50 basis points to 26.5 percent from 27 percent, which has been widely described as a cautious transition from prolonged tightening to calibrated easing.

Iran-Israel-US Conflict and CBN’s FX Gains: A Stress Test for Nigeria’s Monetary Stability

CBN

The CBN stated that the decision followed 11 consecutive months of disinflation. The economy witnessed headline inflation easing to 15.10 percent in January 2026, and food inflation falling sharply to 8.89 percent. Foreign reserves are climbing to $50.45 billion, their highest level in 13 years. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is holding at an expansionary 55.7 points.

As reported in the paper, no doubt that the macroeconomic narrative appears encouraging. On a closer scrutiny, the sustainability of these gains is now being tested by forces far beyond the apex bank’s policy corridors. This is as a result of the clear, direct ripple effect of the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, with direct military involvement from the United States, has triggered one of the most significant geopolitical energy shocks in decades. For Nigeria, the timing is delicate. Just as the CBN signals confidence in disinflation and stability, global volatility threatens to complicate and possibly distort its monetary path.

The rate cut, though welcomed by many analysts, must be understood in context. Nigeria remains in an exceptionally high-rate environment. An MPR of 26.5 per cent is still restrictive by any standard. The Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) remains elevated at 45 per cent for commercial banks, and this effectively sterilises nearly half of deposits, while liquidity ratios are tight, and lending rates to businesses often exceed 30 per cent once risk premiums are included. The adjustment is therefore incremental, not transformational.

The Director/CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, has repeatedly noted that Nigeria’s deeper challenge lies in weak monetary transmission. According to him, even when the benchmark rate falls, structural rigidities, high CRR, elevated deposit costs, macroeconomic uncertainty, and crowding-out from government borrowing prevent meaningful relief from reaching manufacturers, SMEs, agriculture, and other productive sectors. Monetary easing, without structural reform, risks becoming cosmetic. The point is that even before structural reforms take effect, the fact is that an external shock will first reshape the landscape.

The Iran-Israel conflict and US involvement have reignited fears in global energy markets. Joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and retaliatory missile exchanges across the Gulf have unsettled oil traders. Brent crude, already rising in anticipation of escalation, surged toward $70-$75 per barrel and could climb higher if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 per cent of global oil supplies pass, faces disruption. It is still an irony that a major crude exporter is also an importer of refined petroleum products.

Higher crude prices offer a theoretical windfall. For Nigeria’s economy, it is well known that oil remains its largest source of foreign exchange and accounts for roughly 50 per cent of government revenue. The good thing is that rising prices could boost reserves, improve forex liquidity, strengthen the naira, and ease fiscal pressures. In theory, this external cushion could support macroeconomic stability and reinforce the CBN’s easing posture.

However, the upside is constrained by structural weaknesses. Nigeria’s oil production remains below optimal capacity. A significant portion of crude exports is tied to long-term contracts, limiting immediate gains from spot price surges. As SB Morgen observed in its analysis, Nigeria’s “windfall” is volatile and limited by soft production performance.

More critically, Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined products exposes it to imported inflation. Rising global crude prices increase the cost of petrol, diesel, jet fuel and gas. With fuel subsidies removed, these increases are passed directly to consumers and businesses. Depot pump prices have already adjusted upward amid Middle East tensions.

Energy costs are a primary driver of Nigeria’s inflation and this has remained sacrosanct. When fuel prices rise, transportation, logistics, food distribution, power generation, and manufacturing costs will definitely skyrocket, as well as the inflationary impulse spreads quickly through the economy. This will push households to face higher food and transportation costs. Businesses see shrinking margins. Real incomes erode.

Thus, the same oil shock that boosts government revenue may simultaneously reignite inflationary pressure, precisely at a moment when the CBN has begun cautiously easing policy.

This dynamic introduces a difficult policy dilemma, even as this could be for the fragile gains of the MPC. This is to say that if energy-driven inflation resurges, the CBN may be forced to pause or reverse its easing cycle. It is clearly spelled that high inflation typically compels tighter monetary conditions. As Yusuf warned, geopolitical headwinds that elevate inflation often push central banks toward higher interest rates. A renewed tightening would strain credit conditions further, undermining growth prospects.

There is also the risk of money supply expansion. Increased oil revenues, once monetised, can expand liquidity in the domestic system. Historically, surges in oil receipts have been associated with monetary growth, inflationary pressure, and exchange rate volatility. Without sterilisation discipline, a revenue boost could ironically destabilise macro fundamentals.

The exchange rate dimension compounds the complexity. Heightened geopolitical risk, just as it is currently playing out with the Iran-Israel conflict, often triggers global flight to safety. This will eventually lure investors to retreat to U.S. Treasuries and gold. Emerging markets face capital outflows. If it happens that foreign portfolio investors withdraw from Nigeria’s fixed-income market in response to global uncertainty, pressure on the naira could intensify.

Already, the CBN has demonstrated sensitivity to exchange rate dynamics by intervening to prevent excessive naira appreciation. A sharp rate cut in the midst of global volatility could destabilise carry trades and spur dollar demand. What should be known is that the 50-bps reduction reflects not just domestic disinflation, but global risk management such as geopolitical tensions, oil prices, and foreign investor sentiment.

Beyond macroeconomics, geopolitical implications carry security concerns. Analysts warn that a widening Middle East conflict could embolden extremist narratives across the Sahel and it directly has security consequences for Nigeria and the broader region. Groups such as Boko Haram and ISWAP may exploit anti-Western framing to recruit and mobilise more followers in the Sahel region, thereby giving the extremist groups new propaganda opportunities. The pebble fear is that a diversion of Western security resources away from West Africa could create regional vacuums. What the Nigerian economy will begin to experience is that security instability will disrupt agricultural output, logistics corridors, and investor confidence, feeding back into inflation and slow economic growth and as ripple effects, the economy becomes weaker.

Nigeria’s diplomatic balancing act adds another layer of fragility because it is walking on a tactful tightrope. The country is trying not to upset anyone, but maintains cautious neutrality, urging restraint while preserving ties with Western allies and Middle Eastern partners. Yet rising tensions globally between major powers, including Russia and China, complicate the geopolitical chessboard. Invariably, this will have a direct impact as trade flows, remittances, and investment patterns may change unexpectedly, affecting Nigeria’s economy.

With the current conflict in the Middle East, the prospects for economic growth also face renewed strain or are under increased pressure. The stock markets in developed countries have been fluctuating a lot because people are worried that there will be problems with the energy supply. If the whole world does not grow fast, then people will use less oil over time. This means that the good things that happen to Nigeria because of oil prices will probably not last, and any extra money Nigeria gets from oil prices now will be lost. Nigeria will not get to keep the money from high oil prices for a long time. The oil prices will affect Nigeria. Then the effect will go away. One clear thing is that since Nigeria relies heavily on oil exports, this commodity dependence exposes the country to significant risk.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s domestic fundamentals remain structurally challenged. The recapitalisation of banks, with 20 of 33 institutions meeting new capital thresholds, strengthens resilience, but does not guarantee credit expansion into productive sectors. Banks continue to prefer risk-free government securities over private lending in uncertain environments.

Fiscal discipline remains essential. Elevated debt service obligations absorb substantial revenue. Election-related spending poses upside inflation risks. This understanding must be adhered to, that without credible deficit reduction and revenue diversification, monetary easing may be undermined by fiscal expansion.

At the moment, given the current global and domestic uncertainties, the 50 percent interest cut rate appears less like a pivot toward growth and more like a signal of cautious optimism under conditional stability. The policy decision is based on several key expectations with the assumptions that disinflation will persist, exchange rate stability will hold, and global conditions will not deteriorate dramatically.

But the Iran-Israel-U.S. conflict introduces uncertainty into all three assumptions, which is wrongly perceived as behind the rate cut that inflation will keep coming down, that the exchange rate will stay stable, and global conditions won’t worsen, are all undermined by the unfolding conflict.

If the global oil prices rise sharply and fuel becomes more expensive locally, overall prices in the economy could increase again, which means inflation could accelerate.  Another dangerous trend is that if foreign investors pull capital out of Nigeria, exchange rate stability could weaken, seeing the naira coming under pressure. If global growth slows, export earnings could decline. Each of these scenarios would constrain the CBN’s flexibility.

This is not to dismiss potential upsides. Higher oil prices, if production improves, could bolster reserves and moderate fiscal deficits. Forex liquidity could strengthen the naira. Investment in upstream oil and gas could gain momentum. Historically, crude price increases have correlated with improved GDP performance and stock market optimism in Nigeria.

Yet history also warns of volatility. A good example is during the 2022 Ukraine conflict, oil prices spiked above $100 per barrel, which created a potential revenue windfall oil exporting countries, but Nigeria struggled to translate that temporary advantage into sustained economic improvement. Inflation persisted. In the case of Nigeria, the deep-rooted systemic or structural weaknesses and inefficiency diluted the benefits that should have been gained.

The lesson is clear because temporary external windfalls or short-term luck cannot substitute for structural and deep internal economic reforms.

The point is that sustainable development demands diversification beyond oil, to strengthening multiple parts of its economy at the same time, such as improved refining capacity, infrastructure investment, agricultural security, logistics efficiency, and fiscal consolidation. Monetary policy, as the action taken by the CBN at the MPC meeting by adjusting interest rates or attempting to control money supply, can anchor expectations and moderate volatility, but it cannot build productive capacity; it will only help to reduce short-term economic swings.

The CBN’s decision to cut the interest rate appears cautious. It is not a bold shift but rather a small adjustment. This shows that the bank is being careful and optimistic about the economy. It also knows that there are still problems. The trouble in the Middle East, like the fighting that affects the oil supply, reminds the people in charge that Nigeria’s economy is closely tied to what happens with energy around the world. This includes things like inflation, the value of money, and how fast the economy grows.

Until structural reforms reduce dependence on volatile oil cycles and imported fuel, Nigeria’s monetary policy will remain reactive to external crises. To really make the economy strong and stable, Nigeria needs to make some changes.  It requires resilience against geopolitical storms.

The MPC has taken a step. Whether it marks a turning point depends less on 50 basis points and more on how Nigeria navigates a world increasingly defined by conflict-driven volatility.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]


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E-Financial

CBN to Deploy AI in Fight Against Payment Fraud

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has unveiled plans to deploy Artificial Intelligence (AI) to strengthen fraud prevention and enhance the efficiency of the country’s digital payments ecosystem as part of its Nigeria Payments System Vision (PSV) 2028.

CBN to Deploy AI in Fight Against Payment Fraud

Payment fraud is the illegal, unauthorized use or manipulation of payment instruments—like credit cards, wire transfers, or digital wallets—to obtain financial gain.

The initiative, contained in the apex bank’s newly released PSV 2028 document, positions AI as a key technology in Nigeria’s efforts to build a more secure, inclusive and globally competitive payments landscape.

According to the CBN, the adoption of AI forms part of its guiding principle of “Innovation with Purpose,” which seeks to leverage emerging technologies to improve convenience, efficiency and competitiveness across the financial system.

The bank noted that while digital payments have grown significantly in recent years, fraud and cyber threats continue to pose serious challenges to consumer confidence and financial inclusion.

The document highlighted persistent exposure to fraud, cyber-attacks, identity theft, phishing schemes and unauthorised transactions as major risks facing the payments ecosystem. These threats, it said, have undermined trust in digital financial services and constrained efforts to expand access to formal financial systems.

To address these concerns, the CBN said PSV 2028 would place greater emphasis on cybersecurity, fraud management, and the deployment of advanced technologies to detect and prevent financial crimes.

Under the vision’s innovation and emerging technologies pillar, the apex bank disclosed plans to explore AI, blockchain and programmable payment solutions as part of broader efforts to modernise Nigeria’s payments infrastructure.

The CBN also revealed plans to establish stronger fraud monitoring mechanisms, including an industry-wide Security Operations Centre and a national fraud intelligence-sharing platform designed to improve threat detection and response across the financial sector.

According to the document, authorities will facilitate the development of shared infrastructure for fraud detection, risk intelligence and regulatory compliance while introducing industry-wide cyber performance monitoring frameworks.

The bank noted that AI is already transforming payment systems globally and is increasingly being deployed through chatbots, self-service platforms, robotic process automation and other digital tools that enhance customer experience and operational efficiency.

Beyond fraud prevention, the CBN said AI-driven technologies are expected to improve transaction monitoring, strengthen compliance processes and support more efficient service delivery across payment platforms.

The apex bank further stated that Nigeria aims to become a leader in technology-driven regulation by 2028, with ambitions to advance RegTech, SupTech and AI-powered compliance systems while exporting locally developed digital payment frameworks and solutions to international markets.

The broader objective of PSV 2028, according to the CBN, is to build a secure, innovative and resilient payments ecosystem that supports economic growth, deepens financial inclusion, strengthens consumer protection and improves cross-border payment capabilities.

With electronic payment transactions already surpassing N1.2 quadrillion in 2025, the CBN’s decision to integrate AI into its payments strategy underscores a growing commitment to technology-driven fraud management and the long-term development of Nigeria’s digital economy.


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Report Faults Banks over N91.1 Trillion Sterilised at CBN 

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A report by the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE), has criticised commercial banks for abandoning their core intermediation role to support economic growth as N91.1 trillion remained sterilised at the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) standing deposit window.

Report Faults Banks over N91.1 Trillion Sterilised at CBN 

The report lamented the scale of idle liquidity parked at the CBN, noting that this represented not financial strength, but a structural failure of credit allocation, adding that the country’s real sector was being systematically starved of capital.

Separately, Alliance also raised concerns over the sustainability of the country’s fiscal position, warning that despite improvements in government revenue, persistent leakages, rising debt obligations and weak capital spending continued to undermine budgetary effectiveness.

The policy advocacy group said recent fiscal indicators suggested that government revenues are improving and budget deficits are narrowing, but stressed that the gains remained insufficient to offset mounting spending pressures and the growing burden of debt servicing.

Nonethless, it said, “The N91.1 trillion is not a sign of banking strength. It is a symptom of banking failure — a failure of intermediation, a failure of purpose, and a failure of national duty.”

AERE is a policy think tank chaired by Dele Oye, a former national president, Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture (NACCIMA).

Oye is the immediate past chairman of the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria (OPSN) and Chairman of the Nigeria-Türkiye Business Council (NTBC).

The report said, “The banks have a choice: self-regulate, reintermediate, and remember their source or face intervention that will be neither gentle nor forgiving.”

It highlighted what it described as a “cosmetic drop” in CBN standing deposit facility placements from N92.32 trillion in April 2026 to N91.1 trillion in May, arguing that the marginal decline obscures a far more troubling structural reality.

It noted that deposits surged to N128.9 trillion in March 2026, before moderating slightly in subsequent months, but still reflected an extraordinary liquidity concentration at the apex bank.

The report estimated that banks cumulatively placed N425.86 trillion with the CBN in the first five months of 2026 alone — a figure described as “an almost 700 per cent year-on-year increase” compared to the same period in 2025.

“This is not banking. This is financial mercantilism — the capture of state-derived liquidity for private gain, with minimal productive intermediation,” the report said.

At the same time, borrowing from the CBN’s Standing Lending Facility (SLF) reportedly collapsed by 94.9 per cent, to N2.2 trillion from N43.42 trillion, reinforcing what it called a system where banks no longer need to lend to survive.

The report maintained that much of what is recorded as banking strength is, in reality, illusory, and identified three categories of “contingent assets” that distort balance sheet realities.

First are performance bonds and guarantees tied to government contracts, which are largely risk-free fiscal obligations repackaged as banking assets.

The other are delayed government payments and forbearance arrangements, which the report described as “deferred public liabilities masquerading as productive credit.”

The third category involved thecollapse of import credit demand, as firms shift away from letters of credit due to stabilising exchange rates.

According to the report, these dynamics had left banks “flush with liquidity but allergic to lending,” with treasury managers rationally opting to park funds at the CBN’s risk-free window.

The report situated the behaviour of banks within the country’s high interest rate environment, noting that the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) stands at 26.5 percent, while the CBN Standing Deposit Facility offers 22.5 percent risk-free returns.

This, it said, creates a structural incentive problem.

The report said, “A bank treasurer faces a simple arithmetic: lend to a manufacturer at 30–35 percent over several years with multiple risks, or park funds at 22.5 percent overnight with zero risk.”

It further cites the asymmetric policy corridor designed by the CBN, which was intended to stabilise liquidity but had instead encouraged what it called “systemic sterilisation.

While acknowledging regulatory intent, the report argued that the policy has inadvertently prioritised financial stability over productive credit creation, stressing that the absence of credit to the real sector was “not a bug in the system. It is becoming a feature”.

Among other things, it referenced constrained lending to manufacturing, agriculture, and SMEs, alongside persistently high interest rates and limited access to long-term credit.

AERE warned that liquidity sterilisation at the CBN was undermining monetary policy effectiveness and inflation control.

The report also referenced recent CBN data indicating that credit to the private sector contracted by N14.02 trillion between February and April 2026, falling to N80.59 trillion.

At the same time, banks recorded record profits, with top-tier institutions reportedly posting a combined N5.54 trillion profit-after-tax in 2024 alone, a 53 per cent increase year-on-year.

It added that the “paradox is stark: banks are thriving while the economy they are meant to finance is starved of credit.”

However, it urged banks to take voluntary reform or risk facing regulatory intervention.

AERE proposed a mandatory sectoral lending quotas for manufacturing, agriculture, and SMEs, and a possible reduction or cap on returns from the CBN standing deposit facility.

It also recommended recalibration of the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to penalise non-productive deposits, alongside differential treatment for funds directed into real-sector lending.

It further suggested mandatory disclosure of “contingent assets” to expose the true composition of bank balance sheets, arguing that current reporting standards obscure the extent of non-productive holdings.

A windfall tax on excess earnings from CBN placements was also proposed, with proceeds redirected into a Real Sector Credit Fund among other recommendations.

The report stated, “Nigerian banks have forgotten that their source is the real economy the farmer, the manufacturer, the trader, the entrepreneur. They have become dams, not rivers. They capture N91.1 trillion of national liquidity, earn 22.5 per cent risk-free, and report record profits while the economy they are meant to serve gasps for credit.

“The N91.1 trillion is not a sign of banking strength. It is a symptom of banking failure a failure of intermediation, a failure of purpose, and a failure of national duty.

“The banks have a choice: self-regulate, reintermediate, and remember their source or face intervention that will be neither gentle nor forgiving. The clock is ticking.”

However, speaking in its latest podcast titled, “Nigeria’s Budget: Glass Half Full or Quietly Leaking?”, the group noted that while headline figures portray a stronger fiscal outlook, underlying structural weaknesses continued to threaten the country’s economic transformation agenda.

It stated that a significant portion of government earnings is increasingly being channelled towards servicing debt rather than financing critical development projects capable of stimulating growth and improving productivity.

It warned that debt service commitments had become a dominant feature of the budget, limiting the fiscal space available for investments in infrastructure, education and other productive sectors of the economy.

The group argued that the challenge facing the country extended beyond revenue generation, adding that concerns persist over how public resources are deployed and managed.

It identified leakages, inefficiencies and structural imbalances within the fiscal system as major obstacles preventing government spending from delivering its intended economic impact.

The alliance further observed that capital expenditure remained inadequate to drive meaningful transformation in the real economy, stressing that current spending levels are insufficient to support the scale of infrastructure development and industrial expansion required to accelerate growth.

According to the group,”On paper, Nigeria’s budget looks stronger, revenues are improving, deficits narrowing.

“For look closer and something is leaking. Yes, revenues are growing, but not fast enough to match spending pressures or debt obligations. Government earnings still struggle to carry the weight of the system.

“A growing share of revenue isn’t building roads or funding industries. It’s servicing debt. Debt service dominates, bending our budget to the breaking point.

“The issue isn’t just how much Nigeria earns. It’s how effectively those funds are used. Likages, inefficiencies and structural imbalances continue to drain impact.

“Capital expenditure remains too weak to transform the real economy. No meaningful scale in infrastructure, no serious push for productivity. The path forward is clear.”

It said, “Strengthen revenue systems, cut in efficiencies, prioritize productive investment. This is where evidence-based policy matters. Our budget is leaking funds to outdated programs.

“We must fix the leak and fund the future. Investing in education and infrastructure now is essential. A budget is not just numbers. It’s a reflection of national priority. Fix the leak, fund the future. This is our call to action.”

 


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NRS Accredits Afri Invoice as Access Point Provider to Drive Nigeria’s Mandatory e-invoicing

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Ahead of the July deadline, the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has accredited Afri Invoice as an official Access Point Provider (APP) in a major move for digital tax compliance across Nigeria.

This sovereign endorsement thrusts the emerging fintech leader into an elite tier of technology firms trusted to handle the nation’s fiscal data infrastructure.

With the July deadline looming, this offers an opportunity for Nigerian Businesses to get adequate onboarding support.

Crucially, this landmark certification comes on the heels of Afri Invoice also recently being licensed as an official Systems Integrator by the NRS—granting the company rare dual-licensed status within the national ecosystem.

BAs Nigeria rapidly transitions to a transparent, real-time fiscal economy, Afri Invoice now serves as a fully unified, secure gateway.

With this double mandate, the platform is uniquely positioned to both seamlessly integrate legacy corporate networks and directly validate, digitally sign, and transmit automated electronic invoices straight into the central NRS Merchant Buyer Solution (MBS) infrastructure.

The NRS launched the MBS platform to combat tax evasion, boost state revenues, and mandate transaction transparency across Africas largest economy.

Operating as a centralised real-time ledger, the platform intercepts and logs B2B and B2G transactions right at the point of sale.

Speaking on this milestone, Mark Odenore, Founder of Afri Invoice, said: “This accreditation represents one of the most significant moments in Afri Invoice’s journey.

“For years, we have believed that compliance should not be a financial burden that only large corporations can afford.

“The NRS has handed us the opportunity to be the bridge connecting Nigeria’s entire business community to this new era. We view e-invoicing as a launchpad for modern corporate efficiency, transparency, and growth.”

Large taxpayers transitioned during the initial rollout phase, and the NRS is actively expanding the mandate to medium and small enterprises. Because direct connection to government servers demands rigid compliance, APPs serve as the vital intermediaries.

To earn this license from NITDA, Afri Invoice underwent extensive evaluation, proving its technical resilience, software architecture quality, OAuth 2.0 security protocols, and strict alignment with the international PEPPOL interoperability framework.

A Sovereign Endorsement for Afri Invoice is not merely a commercial credential; it is a profound operational responsibility. Inclusion in the official NRS Solutions Provider Directory means businesses can confidently deploy Afri Invoice to shield themselves from compliance risks.

For Nigerian enterprises navigating these shifting tax laws, Afri Invoice eliminates technical friction by automating the full invoice lifecycle.

The platform seamlessly handles Native ERP Integration, synchronises data across international standard formats like JSON, manages real-time data submission, digital signing, and certificate lifecycles, and provides clear audit trails and dashboards for CFOs to eliminate manual human error and speed up close cycles.

Crucially, the platform supports all NRS-mandated tax categories, quantity codes, and payment statuses, future-proofing businesses as global cross-border invoice interoperability rolls out.

Ms. Fatimata Niang, the Director of Strategy &Operations, noted: “Our architecture was engineered to the highest global standards for security, interoperability, and scale.

“Every invoice running through our system is cryptographically secured and fully traceable from the millisecond it is generated. As the mandate expands to millions of taxpayers, our infrastructure is primed to handle massive volume without compromising on speed or security.”

Afri Invoice is a premier Nigerian financial technology company building modern digital invoicing and fiscal infrastructure.

Through robust API-driven solutions aligned with NRS, NITDA, and international PEPPOL protocols, the company empowers enterprises and SMEs to achieve effortless compliance with minimal technical overhead.

 


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