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McKinsey Says Nigeria’s Top-20 Global Economy Quest Possible in 2030

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Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Coordinating Minister for the Economy
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In spite Nigeria been Africa’s most populous country and its largest economy, yet it is little understood outside the region – and its rapid economic development has been overshadowed by global coverage of recent terrorism incidents.

However, a new report from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) looks beyond the country’s immediate challenges to its longer-term potential.

The report, “Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering inclusive growth in Africa’s largest economy”, finds that with the right reforms and investments, Nigeria can become one of the world’s leading economies by 2030.

The report shows that Nigeria has the potential to expand its economy by roughly 7 percent per year through 2030, potentially raising GDP to more than $1.6 trillion.

This could make Nigeria a top-20 global economy—with higher GDP than the

Netherlands, Thailand, or Malaysia in 2030.

Its consumer class could number 160 million people by 2030, and 70 million citizens could be lifted out of poverty.

“Nigeria has extraordinary advantages for future growth, including a large consumer market, a strategic geographic location, and a young and highly entrepreneurial population,” said Reinaldo Fiorini, director and location manager of McKinsey’s Nigeria office.

The findings are based on analysis of five major sectors:

On Trade, it shows that consumption could more than triple, rising to $1.4 trillion a year in 2030, making trade the largest sector of the economy.

Agriculture entails the sector, currently the country’s largest, could more than double to $263 billion by 2030.

Infrastructure- Total infrastructure investments could reach $1.5 trillion through 2030.

While manufacturing shows that if Nigeria reaches its full potential, manufacturing could have a four-fold increase in output by 2030, to $144 billion a year.

In oil and gas, with the right reforms, the GDP contribution of the oil and gas sector could rise to $108 billion per year from $73 billion now; natural gas output could grow by 6 percent a year, adding $13 billion to GDP by 2030.

However, the report emphasizes that Nigeria will need to take concerted action on several fronts if it is to achieve its full potential for growth and translate economic progress into rising living standards and poverty reduction.

These include improving delivery of government services; re-prioritizing public spending towards programs that drive development; attracting fresh investment; and capitalizing on global trends such as rising demand for resources and the spread of the digital economy.

“Nigeria could potentially triple its GDP by 2030,” said Acha Leke, a director in McKinsey’s Nigeria office. “This adds up to a huge opportunity for inclusive growth that should not be missed.”

The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), the business and economics research arm of McKinsey & Company, was established in 1990 to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. Our goal is to provide leaders in the commercial, public, and social sectors with the facts and insights on which to base management and policy decisions.

The partners of McKinsey & Company fund MGI’s research; it is not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution.

 


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KPMG Identifies ‘Flaws, Inconsistencies, and Omission’ in New Tax Law

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KPMG Nigeria has identified what’s described as “errors, inconsistencies, gaps and omissions” in Nigeria’s tax laws that came into force at the beginning of this year.

The professional services company warns that these issues could undermine the attainment of the tax reforms’ stated objectives if left unaddressed.

The reforms, anchored on the Nigeria Tax Act (NTA) and the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA), alongside the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS)  Establishment Act and the Joint Revenue Board (JRB) Establishment Act, are aimed at improving revenue generation, simplifying tax administration, and enhancing competitiveness.

Authorities have repeatedly described the overhaul as critical to strengthening Nigeria’s weak tax-to-GDP ratio and adapting the tax system to changing economic realities.

Capital gains, inflation, and market behaviour

One of the most far-reaching concerns relates to the computation of chargeable gains under Sections 39 and 40 of the Nigeria Tax Act, which require capital gains to be calculated as the difference between sale proceeds and the tax-written-down value of assets, without any adjustment for inflation, analysis by KPMG revealed.

This approach has attracted attention largely because of Nigeria’s inflation environment. Headline inflation has remained in double digits for eight consecutive years, averaging above 18 percent between 2022 and 2025, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Over the same period, asset price movements have been heavily influenced by currency depreciation and general price increases.

Actual market behaviour shows a mixed reaction to tax policy expectations, despite a strong full‑year rally, with the NGX All‑Share Index up more than 50  percent and market capitalisation near N99.4 trillion, the equities market saw significant sell‑offs in late 2025, including a N6.5 trillion drop in market value in November amid uncertainty over the new capital gains tax rules, underscoring investor sensitivity to tax policy shifts.

In its review of the law, KPMG Nigeria noted that taxing nominal gains in a high-inflation environment could result in taxpayers being assessed on inflationary gains rather than real economic value. The firm recommended the introduction of a cost indexation allowance to adjust asset values for inflation when computing chargeable gains.

According to the analysis, such an adjustment would reduce distortions in effective tax rates while still allowing the government to generate additional revenue from genuine capital appreciation.

Indirect transfer rules and foreign investment risks

Another provision drawing scrutiny is Section 47 of the Nigeria Tax Act, which subjects gains from indirect transfers of shares or assets by non-residents to Nigerian tax where such transfers result in changes in ownership of Nigerian companies or assets located in Nigeria.

The provision is being introduced amid weak foreign investment inflows. Data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development shows that foreign direct investment into Nigeria remains below pre-2019 levels, reflecting broader investor caution.

While similar indirect transfer rules exist in other jurisdictions, analysts note that such regimes are typically supported by detailed guidance and clear thresholds to reduce uncertainty.

KPMG’s analysis recommended that Nigerian tax authorities issue clear administrative guidance defining the scope, thresholds, and reporting obligations associated with indirect transfers. The firm noted that clarity would reduce the risk of disputes, improve compliance, and mitigate potential negative effects on foreign investment flows.

FX deductions clash with economic realities

Section 24 of the Nigeria Tax Act limits businesses from deducting foreign-currency expenses beyond their naira equivalent at the official CBN rate.

In practice, this means a company importing goods, paying foreign software subscriptions, or settling overseas vendor invoices cannot claim as tax-deductible any amount they spent above the official exchange rate.

For many companies, this is a real problem. Access to official foreign exchange is limited, forcing businesses to pay higher rates on the parallel market. Under the law, the extra cost becomes non-deductible, effectively increasing taxable profits and raising their tax bills.

KPMG warns that while the rule aims to curb speculative foreign exchange activity, it fails to account for supply shortages. The firm recommends that deductibility should reflect the actual cost incurred, provided proper documentation, so businesses aren’t penalized for circumstances beyond their control.

VAT-linked expense disallowances

Section 21(p) of the Nigeria Tax Act disallows deductions for expenses on which value-added tax has not been charged, even where such expenses were incurred wholly for business purposes.

This intersects with Nigeria’s VAT compliance challenges. The informal sector accounts for a significant share of economic activity, and VAT compliance gaps remain wide, according to assessments by tax authorities and development institutions.

Analysts note that the provision effectively transfers part of the VAT enforcement burden to compliant taxpayers, who may be penalised for supplier non-compliance.

KPMG recommended that Section 21(p) be deleted or substantially modified, arguing that deductibility should depend solely on whether an expense was wholly, exclusively, and necessarily incurred for business purposes. The firm noted that VAT compliance should instead be enforced directly through audits and penalties on defaulting suppliers.

Non-resident taxation and compliance ambiguity

Uncertainty also surrounds the compliance obligations of non-resident companies. While Section 17 of the Nigeria Tax Act provides that withholding tax constitutes final tax for certain non-resident payments where there is no permanent establishment or significant economic presence, the Nigeria Tax Administration Act does not clearly exempt such entities from registration or filing requirements.

Nigeria has signed over a dozen double taxation treaties (DTTs), including the UK, South Africa, Canada, and France, which align with the principle that final WHT extinguishes further tax obligations in the absence of a taxable presence. Experts say harmonizing the NTA and NTAA with these treaties is critical to avoid conflicts and deter foreign investors.

KPMG recommended that the relevant provisions of the Nigeria Tax Act and the Nigeria Tax Administration Act be harmonised, with explicit exemptions for non-resident companies whose Nigerian tax obligations have been fully discharged through withholding tax. According to the firm, such alignment would reduce compliance friction and improve Nigeria’s attractiveness for cross-border transactions.

As Nigeria enacts its most comprehensive tax overhaul in decades, the path to success will depend on clarity, alignment with international best practices, and swift adoption of recommended amendments. Without these measures, businesses may face higher costs, non-residents could be discouraged from investing, and capital markets may remain volatile. For policymakers, the challenge is not just raising revenue but ensuring that the reforms strengthen competitiveness and sustainable economic growth.


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19 Nigerian Banks Meet CBN Recapitalization Targets Ahead of March Deadline

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Nineteen Nigerian banks have fulfilled the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) recapitalization requirements as of January 6, 2026, six weeks before the March 31 deadline, according to data from The Cable Index.

19 Nigerian Banks Meet CBN Recapitalization Targets Ahead of March Deadline

CBN

Access Bank, Fidelity Bank, First Bank, GTBank (GTCO), UBA, and Zenith Bank—holders of international licenses—lead compliance among six major players.

National and regional licensees Citibank Nigeria, Ecobank Nigeria, Globus Bank, Stanbic IBTC, Sterling Bank, Wema Bank, PremiumTrust Bank, and Providus Bank have also hit the benchmarks.

Two non-interest banks, Jaiz and Lotus, alongside merchant banks FSDH, Greenwich, and Nova, round out the compliant group, meeting thresholds of N10-N20 billion for non-interest, N50 billion for merchants, N200 billion for nationals, and N500 billion for international banks as set in March 2024.

Approximately 14 banks remain non-compliant, underscoring urgency ahead of the deadline despite broad progress.


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BVN Enrollment Up 6.87 Percent to 67.84m in 2025 – NIBSS

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Bank Verification Number (BVN) enrollments in the country rose by 6.87 per cent , or 4.36 million, to 67.84 million as at the end of December 2025 from 63.48 million in the corresponding period of the preceding year, according to latest data released by the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS).

BVN Enrollment Up 6.87 Percent to 67.84m in 2025 - NIBSS

This means that a total number of 4.36 million BVN enrolments were recorded between the end of December 2024 and the end of last year.

The BVN scheme was launched on February 14, 2014 by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in collaboration with the Bankers’ Committee, NIBSS and the German firm, Dermalog, with the aim of capturing biometrics of all bank customers and giving each bank customer a unique 11-digit identity number (BVN) that can be verified across the Nigerian banking industry.

Lamido Sanusi, governor of the CBN, at the time, said at the event that the BVN scheme would enable the apex bank to significantly reduce incidents of fraud and money laundering in the banking industry and also help accelerate financial inclusion by opening up opportunities for credit to millions of Nigerians who do not have a standard means of identification.

In October 2017, the CBN released a regulatory framework for BVN operations and Watchlist for the financial system. It stated that the Watchlist comprises a database of bank customers identified by their BVNs, who have been involved in confirmed fraudulent activities in the Nigerian banking industry.

An analysis of the latest NIBSS data shows that BVN enrollment maintained an upward trend in the last five years, rising from 51.90 million in 2021 to 56.90 million and 60.12 million in 2022 and 2023 respectively, before hitting 63.48 million in 2024 and 67.84 in 2025.

Analysts attribute the rise in BVN enrolments in recent years to policy measures introduced by the CBN as part of its efforts to tackle fraud.

For instance, on December 1, 2023, the apex bank issued a circular directing Deposit money banks (DMBs) Non-interest banks, Payment Service Banks, other financial institutions and mobile operators, to ensure that all funded bank accounts or wallets, without BVN or National Identification Number (NIN) are placed on “Post No Debit or Credit,” by April 1, 2024.


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