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Move Towards Exchange Rate Unification Positive – Report

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A report by the FSDH Research has described recent move by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to achieve exchange convergence is positive, saying it would ensure clarity and improve market confidence in the economy.

The report also stated that the move would enable Nigeria to unlock funding from several multilateral organisations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank and ease the pressure on the exchange rate in the medium term.

It further stated that the central bank’s current move towards unified exchange rate was expected to ensure flexibility and market- determined rate, which it stated to a large extent would, reduce arbitrage, round-tripping and could move the naira towards its fair value.

“The CBN’s move is expected to instill confidence in the market as foreign investors are more likely to participate in a less fragmented market that can be fairly predictable.

“Given this framework, the options available for the CBN include raising the interest rates to incentivise inflow of capital into the economy that may hurt economic recovery in subsequent quarters or relax capital control rules/restrictions and simultaneously increase market interventions to prevent significant depreciation of the naira that may result in external reserves depletion,” the report stated.

It, however urged the CBN to follow up the move to unify the exchange rate with a set of consistent forex policies that would seek to improve market liquidity and prevent every form of foreign exchange arbitrage and unnecessary subsidies.

It also urged the CBN to clear forex backlogs, which the IMF estimated to be $2 billion in February 2021, to further instill confidence in the market.

The report, which was titled: ‘Nigeria’s Foreign Exchange Policy Note- Navigating through the Tides of Uncertainty’.

It added that: “As much as Nigeria needs effective management of foreign exchange and unification of exchange rate to boost confidence, the supply shortage of foreign exchange is still a major problem.

“Increasing foreign exchange supply from non-CBN sources is vital in maintaining exchange rate stability in the I&E window and reducing speculative activities.”

The report predicted that the CBN would be faced with, “policy trilemma” to explain Nigeria’s foreign exchange and monetary choices.

The ‘trilemma’ refers to the trade-offs a government faces when making crucial monetary policy decisions because only two out of the three objectives could be achieved at a time.

It added: “With COVID-19, Nigeria maintained the two objectives of having a fixed/managed official exchange rate and monetary autonomy at the expense of free movement of capital. This was evident in the capital controls and forex backlogs.

“The recent move by the CBN to adopt the I&E market rate as the official rate will enable the CBN to control interest rate while capital controls can be relaxed, but exchange rate will have to be flexible.

“Whether the naira appreciates or depreciates will depend on the level of capital inflows and outflows, CBN’s involvement in the market and the external reserves position.

“This means only way to maintain a stable exchange rate is to attract even more capital into the economy or intervene heavily in the forex market using the external reserves.”

It added that the planned issuance of Eurobond by the government would provide some relief in the market and boost external reserves in the short term.

However, from the fiscal and trade perspective, “Nigeria will need to leverage on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement to boost non-oil exports and increase foreign exchange inflows.”

The FSDH also recommended that, “providing direct incentives for businesses to produce for exports by implementing port reforms as well as developing a comprehensive industrial and trade strategies would be important steps that the government must take.

“Our 2021 forecasts for key indicators include real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 1.3 per cent, an average exchange rate of N430/$ and an inflation rate of 16.6 per cent.”


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E-Financial

Ecobank Profit Jumps 29 Percent to N950Bn

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Ecobank Transnational Incorporated has reported a 29 per cent rise in profit after tax to N950.0bn for the financial year ended December 31, 2025, driven by growth in interest income and non-interest revenue.

Ecobank Profit Jumps 29 Percent to N950Bn

This was indicated in the Condensed Consolidated Unaudited Financial Statements for the year ended December 2025 filed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited on Friday.

According to the report, the pan-African banking group’s gross earnings rose 14 per cent to N4.82tn, while total revenue increased 18 per cent to N3.67tn.

Profit before tax climbed 30 per cent to N1.28tn, up from N986.7bn in 2024. Operating profit before impairment charges rose 29 per cent to N1.89tn.

In the period under review, net interest income grew 22 per cent year on year to N2.14tn, supported by a 15 per cent increase in interest income to N3.18tn.

Interest expense rose modestly by four per cent to N1.04tn.

Non-interest revenue also strengthened, rising 13 per cent to N1.53tn, buoyed by a 17 per cent increase in fee and commission income to N1.03tn, and a 14 per cent growth in trading income and foreign exchange gains to N559.36bn.

However, other operating income declined 22 per cent to N68.6bn, while net losses on investment securities widened to N10.98bn.

Impairment charges on financial assets rose 28 per cent to N613.26bn, reflecting higher credit risk provisioning during the period.

Despite this, operating profit after impairment increased 30 per cent to N1.28tn.

Total profit stood at N950.0bn, compared to N735.9bn in 2024. Total assets expanded 14 per cent to N49.44tn, up from N43.30tn in 2024.

Loans and advances to customers increased 11 per cent to N17.09tn, while deposits from customers rose 15 per cent to N36.45tn, reinforcing the bank’s funding base. Total equity strengthened significantly, rising 50 per cent to N4.17tn, driven largely by retained earnings growth.

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders stood at N2.91tn, up from N1.75tn. Total liabilities increased to N45.27tn, from N40.52tn in the previous year.

Ecobank operates in 34 African countries and several international financial centres, serving more than 32 million customers across consumer, commercial, corporate, and investment banking segments.


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Incentives alone won’t win over Africa’s next billion fintech users — Kuda MFB MD

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African fintechs hoping to sign up the continent’s next billion users will need to rethink the industry’s long-running growth playbook, according to Musty Mustapha, Managing Director of Kuda Microfinance Bank, who says cashbacks and incentives may drive downloads but rarely help build sustainable businesses.

Incentives alone won’t win over Africa’s next billion fintech users — Kuda MFB MD

Kuda MFB MD

Speaking at a fintech panel discussion on scaling digital financial services across Africa at Tech Revolution Africa, a gathering of tech leaders, investors, operators, and professionals which was held at Landmark Event Center on January 31, 2026, Mustapha objected to what he described as the “growth at all costs” culture which has defined much of African fintech so far. While incentives can quickly inflate user numbers, he said they often fail to create the kind of trust and consistent usage that keeps customers long term.

“It is easy to buy users,” he said. “But if you grow without creating real value, you’re only solving for today’s numbers and ignoring whether the business survives tomorrow.”

His comments come at a time when many startups are under pressure to demonstrate stronger unit economics as venture funding tightens and investors shift attention from rapid acquisition to profitability and retention. In that environment, Mustapha argues that reliability, not marketing spend, will determine which fintechs endure.

Contrary to common assumptions, he said African consumers are not resistant to technology but cautious, shaped by years of unreliable services and weak infrastructure. Products that work seamlessly elsewhere often struggle locally because they fail to account for that trust deficit.

“They’re not digitally naïve,” he said. “They’ve just operated in low-trust environments. If something fails even once or twice, you lose them.”

That focus on trust has influenced how Kuda Microfinance Bank has approached its growth. Launched in 2019 as a digital-first bank, it expanded from roughly 100,000 customers within its first year to nearly 300,000 the next, before surging past 2 million customers in 2021. Today, the microfinance bank serves more than 7 million Nigerians, Mustapha said, describing the journey as less predictable than the numbers suggest.

“The reality is, you can’t forecast scale neatly,” he said. “You can wake up and suddenly have a huge spike in users. If your systems and people aren’t ready, you crumble.”

In his view, the strain on a fintech typically shows up first behind the scenes, not on its app. As volume increases, back-office functions such as reconciliation, chargebacks and customer support can quickly become chokepoints, eroding the trust that fintechs are trying to build. Founders, he said, often underestimate these operational demands in the early days while prioritising product development.

“Anything you don’t pay attention to in your first six months will come back to hurt you at scale,” he said.

External constraints add more complexity. Payment rails, power supply, and connectivity remain outside the control of most fintechs, making outages and delays inevitable. Rather than trying to outspend those limitations, Mustapha said companies must design around them by building redundancies and multiple pathways for critical services.

“You don’t assume perfection,” he said. “If one channel fails, there must be another. That’s how you stay reliable.”

As traditional banks, telcos, and startups increasingly compete for the same mass-market customers, Mustapha expects the winners to combine the strengths of each group — the capital base of banks, the distribution reach of telcos, and the speed of fintechs. But regardless of the model that dominates, he believes the fundamentals will remain the same.

For millions of first-time or underserved users, the deciding factor is simple: whether the service works every time.

“There’s this idea that the average customer can’t use sophisticated products,” he said. “That’s not the issue. What they want is something they can trust.”

As fintech chases its next phase of growth, trust, rather than incentives, may prove to be the sector’s most valuable currency.


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Majority of Nigerians do not Trust Govt with Tax Revenue – SBM

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Majority Nigerians do not trust the government to properly utilise their tax payments for good use, according to a survey by SBM Intelligence across nine cities.

Majority of Nigerians do not Trust Govt with Tax Revenue – SBM

The survey highlighted why recent tax reforms have triggered widespread anxiety and resistance.

“Survey data from 200 respondents across nine cities indicate that 68.5 percent of Nigerians completely distrust the government’s use of tax revenues, whereas only 27.5 percent view the reforms as beneficial to the country, ” SBM intelligence said in its recent report titled Taxing Patience.

Nigeria’s 2025 Tax Reform Acts took effect in January, introducing the most comprehensive overhaul of the tax framework in decades. The reform has created more awareness among Nigerians than ever before, increasing their further distrust in the government’s use of tax revenues.

The distrust reflects years of poor service delivery and weak accountability, shaping public doubt toward the new tax system despite assurances that the reforms are designed to ease burdens and improve fairness.

“In the past, people avoided tax because they felt the government wouldn’t provide basic amenities,” businessday quoted Okanlawon Hakeem, a Lagos-based businessman, as saying.

“You drill boreholes yourself, pay for public transport yourself, and sometimes fix your local road yourself. So, you ask yourself what the government is doing with the tax money.”

The SBM Intelligence report noted that access to reliable electricity, improved security and better roads were the clearest signals that would make tax compliance worthwhile.

“46 percent of participants identified improvements in roads and security as their primary motivation for tax compliance,” SBM Intelligence noted, explaining that service delivery, rather than enforcement alone, is likely to shape taxpayer behaviour.

Government officials have defended the changes as necessary to improve public finances and reduce Nigeria’s dependence on oil revenue, pointing to the country’s historically low tax-to-GDP ratio.

With a tax-to-GDP ratio of less than 10 percent, Nigeria has lagged behind regional peers such as Ghana and Kenya. Taiwo Oyedele, chairman presidential fiscal policy and tax committee, hopes the reforms will lift the ratio toward 18 percent over the medium term.

Public sentiment, however, has not moved in step with these fiscal ambitions. According to the report, only 27.5 percent of people believe that the new tax laws are good for the country.

The report also suggests that greater awareness of the reforms often coincides with stronger skepticism rather than acceptance.

Distrust cuts across regions and occupations but is especially pronounced in major commercial centres.

The report mentioned that people in Lagos and parts of the Northeast have the strongest resistance and protest sentiment, reflecting concerns about enforcement, fairness and legislative integrity.

In its Year Ahead 2026 outlook, SBM Intelligence projects that protests are likely as the real impact of the new framework becomes clearer. The report points to the June 2024 youth-led protests in Kenya, which resulted in a reversal of the policy.

In Nigeria, where inflation is only just beginning to show signs of easing, the tolerance for perceived government excesses, including lavish convoys and budget padding, is at an all-time low.

Business owners, traders and informal workers expressed particular unease, fearing the reforms could deepen the problem of double taxation. Many worry that government levies will exist alongside rather than replace the fees already collected by unions and non-state actors.

“ Nearly a third of business respondents said they expect to pay both official taxes and union fees,” the report stated.

For informal workers such as market traders, drivers and artisans, this fear is grounded in experience. Many already make daily payments to unions or associations, often under pressure.

Without a clear plan to eliminate these parallel charges, new government taxes are widely viewed as an additional burden rather than a simplification of the system.

In Lagos, Kano and Onitsha, constant electricity emerged as the strongest trigger for compliance. In Abuja, Port Harcourt and Bauchi, respondents prioritized roads and security. Across cities, the message was consistent: willingness to pay is conditional on visible outcomes.

Analysts warn that without clear improvements in service delivery, stronger enforcement could harden resistance rather than improve compliance.

The report stated that without rapid, visible improvements in public services, the government risks collecting more money while winning.


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