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Naira Exposed to Election Risk and Oil Price Volatility

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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

The Nigerian Naira entered today’s trading session in a steady fashion as investors juggled with various fundamental themes pulling and tugging on risk sentiment.

With a number of Tier 1 economic releases today in Nigeria, the Naira is poised to remain firm on the parallel exchange. Although the local currency is seen witnessing further stability in the near term, geopolitical risks in the form of trade tensions and global growth fears may create headwinds down the road. With the presidential elections looming and oil prices still depressed, the upcoming trading weeks will be critical for the Nigerian Naira. The toxic mixture of rising inflationary pressures from increased government spending and depressed oil prices will spell very bad news for the Naira’s stability. With the IMF also adding to the gloom by downgrading Nigeria’s economic forecast for 2%, there will be a special focus on the election outcome. While Nigeria continues its mission to break away from oil reliance, the nation’s short- to medium-term outlook remains influenced by oil prices.

Unfortunately, the outlook for oil points to further downside thanks to supply and demand dynamics. Concerns over excessive supply in the markets coupled with worrying signs of falling demand continue to expose oil prices to downside risk.

Will the Central Bank of Nigeria be able to defend the Naira as elections loom and foreign exchange reserves dwindle? This is a question on the mind of many investors.

Currency spotlight – GBPUSD

The British Pound appreciated sharply across the board yesterday as fears over a ‘no deal’ Brexit continued to ease. Market expectations over the government extending article 50 to avoid a no deal outcome clearly supported buying sentiment towards Sterling. However, gains were short-lived with the currency weakening today amid the endless uncertainty over Brexit. Focusing on the technical picture, the GBPUSD turned bullish on the daily charts after prices breached the psychological 1.3000 level. A solid daily close above this point is seen opening a path higher towards 1.3075 and 1.3100. Alternatively, a decline back below 1.3000 could encourage move back towards 1.2920.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

An appreciating Dollar sent Gold tumbling with prices trading around $1,279.50 as of writing.

Although bears seem to be in the driver’s seat, the outlook for the precious metal still points to further upside. With geopolitical risks draining risk sentiment, Gold remains heavily supported in the medium to longer term.

Technical traders will continue to closely observe how the metal behaves above the $1,272 level. A rebound back towards $1,290 will be in the cards if this level proves to be a reliable support. On the other hand, a breakdown below this level is seen opening a path towards the $1,260 region.

 

 


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E-Financial

Transfers Fail as Banks Suffer USSD Glitches

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Nationwide Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) glitches are occurring because the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) transitioned to an “End-User Billing” (EUB) framework.

Transfers Fail as Banks Suffer USSD Glitches

USSD is a real-time messaging protocol that allows you to communicate directly with your mobile network provider’s computers. It operates without needing an internet connection and is typically triggered by dialing a code starting with \(\ast \) and ending with \(\#\) (e.g., $\ast$123\(\#\)).

Instead of deducting fees from bank accounts, the ₦6.98 per-session charge is now deducted directly from mobile airtime.

The disruptions, which have affected customers of several leading banks including First Bank of Nigeria, Access Bank, United Bank for Africa, First City Monument Bank and Stanbic IBTC Bank, have sparked confusion among retail customers, traders and Point of Sale operators who rely heavily on USSD banking for daily transactions.

Previously, banks deducted USSD charges directly from customers’ bank balances before settling telecom operators separately.

That framework has now been replaced with an End-User Billing system.

Under the new model, customers are charged N6.98 for every 120-second USSD session, with the fee deducted directly from mobile airtime.

This means customers with little or no airtime on their SIM cards may be unable to complete transfers, regardless of how much money they have in their bank accounts.


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E-Financial

Court Affirms CBN’s Exclusive Ownership of eNaira Trademark

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A Federal High Court in Abuja has affirmed the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) exclusive ownership of the “eNaira” digital currency platform and trademark.

Court Affirms CBN’s Exclusive Ownership of eNaira Trademark

eNaira

Justice James Omotosho, in a judgment delivered on Friday, restrained eNaira Payment Solutions Limited from presenting itself as the owner of the “eNaira” trademark.

The court also ordered the company to immediately adopt a new name that does not contain the word “Naira”.

The suit, marked FHC/ABJ/CS/113/2021, was dismissed, while the court awarded N10 million costs in favour of the CBN following its successful counterclaim.

Justice Omotosho held that although the company had been registered with the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) since 2004, its name was misleading because of its close association with Nigeria’s sovereign currency.

“The name chosen by the plaintiff on its incorporation is in the circumstances unregistrable due to the misleading nature of the name, which suggests government patronage,” the judge ruled.

The court further noted that the Trademark Registry had, through a letter dated Nov. 15, 2021, withdrawn approvals earlier granted to the company for applications related to the “eNaira” trademark under classes 36 and 42.

According to the judgment, the company was informed that “eNaira is a national intellectual property and constitutes a symbol and national asset of Nigeria.”

Justice Omotosho ruled that the plaintiff had no superior legal claim to the trademark and therefore could not seek injunctive relief against the CBN.

“A party that has no legal right cannot be entitled to an injunction. The purport of this is that, prima facie, the plaintiff has no valid trademark to the exclusive use of the eNaira trademark,” he held.

The judge also emphasised that under Section 852(2) of the Companies and Allied Matters Act, the CAC has powers to reject or direct changes to company names that suggest government affiliation.

“The ‘eNaira’ name is so closely linked to the legal tender of Nigeria, which is exclusively controlled by the CBN.

“An average person on the street is most likely to think that the plaintiff is an agent of the Federal Government or the CBN,” the court stated.

Justice Omotosho added that the company’s proposed activities involving digital currency operations created the impression that it had official authority to issue or manage a digital version of the naira.

“The proposed business of the plaintiff… no doubt creates the impression that the plaintiff has the authority of the Federal Government of Nigeria to issue and control a digital form of the Naira,” he said.

The judge warned that allowing a private entity to control the “eNaira” name could undermine public confidence and create confusion within the country’s financial system.

“Any digital currency with the name ‘eNaira’ will no doubt create the impression that it is an official digital form of the Naira.

“This would be disastrous for the Nigerian economy and will create skepticism among users, as it is not guaranteed by the Central Bank of Nigeria,” he added.

The court also observed that the CAC had lawfully directed the company to change its name within six weeks of its Dec. 9, 2021 directive, but the company failed to comply.

During proceedings, counsel to the plaintiff, Mr David Ityonyman, argued that the word “Naira” was not exclusive to Nigeria and should not be monopolised.

“Nothing stops India from having a Naira. Also, countries like the U.S. and Canada make use of dollars. None of them has laid claim to the name,” he submitted.

He further argued that the company had used the “Naira” branding internationally for more than two decades before the CBN launched the eNaira platform in 2021.


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E-Financial

CBN to Simplify Bank Alerts over Rising Customer Complaints

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and commercial banks are reviewing the large number of transaction alerts sent to customers and the complaints about bank charges.

CBN to Simplify Bank Alerts over Rising Customer Complaints

So called bank alert refers to real-time SMS or email notifications from your financial institution about transactions, balances, or security updates.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said this in Abuja after the 305th Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

He explained that many bank customers are confused because they receive too many debit alerts for a single transaction.

To address this, the CBN has created a quarterly meeting system involving its consumer protection team, commercial banks, and the top 10 microfinance banks. The goal is to resolve customer complaints faster and improve banking services.

Cardoso said one major issue being studied is how banks send multiple notifications for one transaction.African Politics Analysis

He said this often confuses customers and suggested that alerts should be simplified and combined so people can clearly understand what each debit is for.

He added that the issue is still being worked on and solutions will be proposed soon.

On the N50 stamp duty charge, the CBN governor explained that it is not a bank charge.

He said the charge comes from tax authorities, while banks only collect it and send it to the government.

He advised customers who notice wrong charges to first complain to their bank. If the issue is not resolved, they can escalate it to the CBN’s consumer protection department.

Cardoso also said the CBN has strengthened its monitoring system to ensure banks handle complaints properly, compensate customers when needed, and improve customer service.

The CBN is also reviewing how banks apply rules on charges and customer complaints, with the aim of improving transparency and reducing repeated issues in the banking system.

 


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