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Naira May Hit N200 to $1 By 1Q14-Analysts

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E-Financial

Naira May Hit N200 to $1 By 1Q14-Analysts

Published

12 years ago

on

December 8, 2013

By

Comms Week
Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, Governor, CBN
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Nigerians are sharing bitter experiences over the slipping trend of the naira.  Newspapers had reported that the Naira weakened to N171 to the United States dollar at the BDCs by the close of activities Thursday.

In a short survey conducted by the Nigeria CommunicationsWeek, respondents waxed worriedly at the trend warning that the Naira may continue its downward movement.

According to reports during the week banks have not been selling forex exchange to the public, thus forcing customers to rely on the BDC and the parallel market for their supplies.

Sharing his regrets over the trend, Mr. Peter Asolo, said: “I bought dollar for 172.7 Thursday for the first time in my life”.

Analysts heap the blames on the door-steps of the CBN, lamenting that the apex bank has been causing unnecessary panic in the industry by removing management and ownership of banks.

Commenting on this, Asolo said: “CBN brought appointed people, some of whom also reigned in those banks with impunity; displayed over 10000 people from their jobs. At the end of the day were those banks better than they were before take over? There is no single viable window for lending to small business which forms over 80% of the economic activities. Everything we are hearing is nothing but hype.

“Those who are lending are collecting about 28% interest rate the highest anywhere in the world. What a pity. Even in a state of war Nigeria naira should not suffer this great fall. As at last year December it was 149 to a dollar less than one year we are talking of about 22 naira depreciation. Madam Ngozi, the supervisor will come to tell us “there is no inflation” and every purchasing power in the country has decreased”.

“Olutayo Ogunyemi, a public analyst lending his voice to the cause said:  “We import virtually everything to Nigeria which requires high demand for major currencies such as $. We need to go back to the basic and put every infrastructure in place (power, road, etc) and diversify the economy from being crude oil dependent to agric, solid minerals, etc. All these require visionary leaders and not POLlTICAL DEALERS to achieve them. A Dollar exchanged for Naira at the rate of #116 in 2008, and now #172!”

However, Asolo added that, “The prices of goods have gone up by as much as 150% including food stuff. I wonder what economic indices they use to deceive the innocent I see a situation the naira will hit 200 naira to a dollar before the end of first quarter of 2014. If anybody will be honest, that is the actual beginning of the end for the country’s economy. Need I say that this economy is import dependent? The only thing manufactured in Nigeria is sachet water even at that it’s only the water we source locally.

“Government has decided to ban everything knowing that we do not have the productive capacity and we cannot, even if we have stable electricity in the next 5 years. Least I forget to add the fact that no Industry in Nigeria has the capacity to produce the daily consumption of up to 5% of its product for the country’s population which should now stand at about 220million people, if the previous figure of 160million is true. I am just sitting here asking one question when smart and intelligent people will start to manage our institutions.

“The sad part is that most Nigerians are suffering from ignorance and they have all turned to religion for help. The big question is how do we salvage the Naira? Let us forget about politics and parties for once, this is our common language. How do we save the soul of the economy?

Also, they believe that another silent time bomb in population explosion as the mortality rate world over is reducing due to technology advancement. Now people are now giving birth to kids at earlier age than before. Things are happening faster than we can imagine, which the analysts think Nigeria either does something fast to save the naira or we face the music.


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E-Financial

Adedeji, NRS Boss says Technology is Crucial to Tax Reform’s Success

Published

3 hours ago

on

February 13, 2026

By

Chike Onwuegbuchi
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Zacch Adedeji, the Executive Chairman of the Nigerian Revenue Service (NRS), has described technology as a crucial factor in the implementation of the new tax laws.

Adedeji stated this while delivering the maiden convocation lecture of the Federal Polytechnic, Ayede, Oyo state.

In a statement by his Technical Assistant on Print Media, Sikiru Akinola, Adedeji listed some of the most fundamental challenges confronting taxation to include infrastructure, skills, trust and resistance.

In the lecture titled, ‘The Role of Technology in Implementing Nigeria’s New Tax Laws: Challenges, Prospects, and Implications for National Development,’ the NRS chairman said each of the challenges would be addressed with the imminent upgrading of the country’s tax system for a digital environment.

He said: “Nigeria has recently enacted a new set of tax laws, representing the most significant restructuring of our nation’s fiscal legislation in 50 years. While public conversation often frames these changes as legal reforms, and that is true, it is also an incomplete picture.

“These laws are not merely changing rates, definitions, or administrative powers. They are quietly redefining how authority operates within the tax system. This is a complete structural overhaul, signalling the end of tax collection as a manual task and the beginning of tax intelligence.

“If you read the new laws carefully, you will notice a subtle but profound assumption woven throughout their fabric. They presuppose the existence of reliable taxpayer identification, integrated data across institutions, traceable transactions, automated processes, and scalable enforcement.

“In other words, these laws are built for a digital environment. They cannot function properly in a manual, fragmented, paper-based system. The implication is clear: without technology, the laws remain aspirational. With technology, they become operational.

“This transition is central to the mandate of the Nigeria Revenue Service as we implement this new legal framework. Historically, tax administration relied heavily on human discretion over who is registered, who is assessed, who is audited and who is penalised.”

The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abass, encouraged the graduating students to be good ambassadors of the institution.

Represented by AbdulFatai Buhari, the senator representing Oyo North, Abass charged the youths not to relent in their bid to acquire more knowledge.

He also commended the tax boss for leading the change in tax administration in the country.


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Billions in Nigeria’s Reserves, But Where is the Growth?

Published

3 hours ago

on

February 13, 2026

By

Ugo Onwuaso
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By Blaise Udunze

The moment the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, recently announced that Nigeria’s foreign reserves had inched to $49 billion as of February 5, 2026, the news was received with understandable enthusiasm.

Billions in Nigeria’s Reserves, But Where is the Growth?

He described the development as “a very important statistic” when speaking at the 2nd National Economic Council (NEC) Conference in Abuja, while noting a 4.93 per cent increase and emphasising that Nigeria had moved from being a net seller to a net buyer of foreign exchange. He cited improved remittance inflows, a narrowing gap between official and parallel market exchange rates, and greater confidence in the naira as evidence that reforms were working.

On the surface, the numbers are reassuring. The premium between official and parallel market rates has reportedly fallen to under 2 percent. Remittances have improved following deliberate engagement with the diaspora. Nigerians can increasingly rely on naira cards for international transactions. It can be said that investors are earning positive real returns, banks are recapitalising, equity markets are recovering, and macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth of 3.98 per cent, a current account surplus of $3.42 billion in the third quarter of 2025, and a reported moderation in inflation to 15.15 percent are presented as signs of stabilisation.

So far, beyond the celebratory headlines lies a deeper and more consequential question, in the form of, what does the fixation on foreign reserves really tell us about the underlying strength of the Nigerian economy?

History and economic logic suggest that when a central bank repeatedly elevates foreign reserves as a central achievement, it often signals that the true engines of growth are either weak or underdeveloped. Strong reserves are not built through declarations, press conferences, or defensive monetary manoeuvres. They are built through systems that generate value, exports, productivity, and trust. Countries with durable reserve positions did not chase reserves; they built economies that produced them naturally.

This distinction matters greatly for Nigeria.

Foreign reserves are important, but they are not a development strategy. They are a buffer, not a foundation. They are an outcome of economic vitality, not a substitute for it. When reserves become the centrepiece of economic storytelling, there is a risk that policymakers mistake statistical comfort for structural strength.

Even Nigeria’s celebrated $49 billion reserve figure requires closer scrutiny, which appears to be more of sexing up the figures. Gross reserves make headlines, but net usable reserves are what protect a currency in moments of stress. A significant portion of reported reserves is often tied up in swaps, forward commitments, and external obligations. When these are stripped out, the net buffer available to defend the naira is far smaller than the headline figure suggests. The gap between gross and net reserves is too large to justify unqualified confidence about currency stability, especially in an economy that remains import-dependent and structurally fragile.

The danger of over-fixating on reserves is not unique to Nigeria, but it is particularly acute here because of the economy’s narrow production base, which subliminally calls for sexing up the figures. Despite decision-makers prematurely applauding the reserves’ growth, the apex bank must rethink its approach. The reserves are not generated through production-based or stronger export means but rather largely from borrowing (sales of Eurobonds) or through government loans, which come in as dollars to the CBN that temporarily boost dollar inflows.  This points to the fact that Nigeria still exports little beyond crude oil, imports most manufactured goods, and relies heavily on volatile capital inflows. In such a context, reserves require constant defence rather than organic replenishment. Tight monetary policy, FX restrictions, and moral persuasion may buy time, but they do not solve the underlying problem of insufficient foreign exchange generation.

By contrast, countries with strong reserve positions followed a very different path. Unlike Nigeria, countries like Saudi Arabia, with foreign reserves of about $410 billion, paired subsidy reforms with visible reinvestment in infrastructure, social welfare, and alternative energy systems. Indonesia, with reserves of roughly $153 billion, combined fiscal reforms with expanded social assistance and a shift toward targeted household support, ensuring that reform pain was offset by tangible benefits. Reserves are mainly meant to grow from productive economic activities like Singapore, whose reserves stood at approximately $397 billion at the end of 2025, as it built its position through decades of disciplined industrial policy, export competitiveness, domestic savings, and institutional credibility. In all these cases, reserves were not the objective; they were the by-product of deliberate economic architecture.

In most successful developmental states, public expenditure plays a catalytic role in growth. Unlike Nigeria’s, most countries’ expenditures It crowds in private investment, expand infrastructure, lower transaction costs, and build productive capacity. Over time, this deepens domestic capital formation, drives industrial productivity, supports export diversification, and strengthens external balances. Nigeria’s recent experience, however, appears to diverge from this model.

Rather than deploying fiscal policy aggressively to stimulate productive capacity, government financing has increasingly leaned on the domestic capital market. While this approach has attracted foreign capital inflows, much of this capital has been short-term portfolio investment into treasury bills, government bonds, and money market instruments. A fact that is well established is that these inflows can temporarily stabilise liquidity and support the exchange rate, but their multiplier effects on the real economy are minimal. In the absence of strong productive investment for a country like Nigeria, the giant of Africa, this pattern resembles constructing a skyscraper on weak foundations, which is impressive in appearance, but structurally fragile.

This fragility is evident in the broader economy. Especially this kind of growth is associated with Nigeria in 2025, which portrays a country that is increasingly survival-led rather than productivity-driven. The underlying challenge today is that households, small businesses and even industrial firms are left with no option but to adapt to rising costs and shrinking real incomes by expanding low-productivity activities. Industrial depth remains shallow. Domestic capital accumulation is weak. Export capability outside oil is limited. Labour productivity continues to lag. These are not the conditions under which reserves become self-sustaining.

This is why the central bank’s strategic focus must extend far beyond reserve accumulation. If the CBN genuinely seeks to grow the economy and build reserves sustainably, it must prioritise the mechanisms that generate foreign exchange organically. The most important of these is productive credit expansion. Central banks around the world are expected to shape economies not only through interest rates but through the direction of credit. Prolonged monetary tightness may suppress inflation at the margins, but it also suppresses investment, output, and employment, as is the case in Nigeria. Contrary to Nigeria’s lived experience, countries that successfully built reserves deliberately channeled affordable, long-term credit to manufacturing, agro-processing, and export-oriented sectors, but the same cannot be said of Nigeria. Nigeria cannot tighten its way into prosperity.

Closely linked to this is the need for a serious export-led industrial strategy. Nigeria’s trade challenge is often framed as an import problem, but it is fundamentally an export deficiency. Banning imports or rationing foreign exchange does not create competitiveness. Export growth does. Sustainable reserves come from selling more to the world than one buys, particularly in manufactured goods and tradable services. Oil exports may still matter, but they are volatile and finite. Value-added exports are repeatable, scalable, and employment-intensive.

Exchange rate stability, too, must be approached through supply rather than fear. Currency pressure reflects insufficient FX supply more than excessive demand. Strengthening real economic fundamentals, which calls for expanding non-oil exports, formalising remittance channels, and attracting long-term productive capital, will do more to stabilise the naira than administrative controls mixed with sexing up figures. Predictability matters, and for this reason, investors may tolerate risk, but they may be forced to withdraw when policies are inconsistent.

Infrastructure financing is another critical missing link. No economy exports competitively without reliable power, efficient transport, and functional logistics. While infrastructure is often treated as a purely fiscal responsibility, central banks in many emerging economies have played catalytic roles in financing industrial infrastructure. Supporting industrial parks, logistics hubs, processing zones, and energy projects would address one of the root causes of Nigeria’s weak export performance and fragile reserves.

Equally important is the mobilisation of domestic savings. Strong reserves are easier to build when a country funds its development internally. One of its domestic savings that has been lying fallow is that Nigeria’s pension and insurance funds remain under-deployed in productive sectors. For a country that is truly angling for growth and with the right regulatory frameworks, these long-term pools of capital can support infrastructure, manufacturing, and export industries, reducing dependence on volatile foreign inflows.

Inflation control must also be re-examined. This is one grey area with Nigeria’s system as its inflation is largely cost-driven, fueled by energy costs, logistics bottlenecks, FX shortages and insecurity. It must be understood that addressing it solely through interest rate hikes risks shrinking output in terms of economic production and growth while prices remain elevated, as is the case today. The policy-makers in Nigeria must understand that supply-side interventions that reduce production costs and stabilise input availability are more likely to deliver durable price stability and stronger reserves than monetary tightening, especially in the case of raising interest rates alone.

The CBN has projected that GDP growth could reach 4.49 percent, inflation could moderate to 12.9 percent, and reserves could exceed $50 billion. These projections are presented as evidence of consolidation. Yet many economists caution that macroeconomic stability, while necessary, is not synonymous with sustainable growth. Even if the provided official statistics may suggest that the economy is improving, the reality is that the majority of the populace are not experiencing the benefits, as is the case in Nigeria, where the unemployment rate is high, wages aren’t keeping up with costs and many households are barely making ends meet.

To further drive the point, Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim has argued that the true measure of economic performance is not headline figures but the living conditions of citizens. This is to say that economic growth is meaningless if it doesn’t create jobs, purchasing power, and opportunity, cannot sustain political or social stability, nor can foreign reserves grow sustainably.

Going forward, it is advisable that the foreign reserves, therefore, should be read for what they are, as a reflection of deeper economic health. When production expands, exports diversify, infrastructure improves, capital deepens, and trust is restored, reserves grow quietly and sustainably. When these foundations are weak, reserves require constant defense and loud celebration.

Today, Nigeria is at a critical point where it must make a major decision, either the choice is between managing reserves endlessly or building an economy that earns them effortlessly. The former offers headlines and is unsustainable. The latter offers prosperity, and it is sustainable in the long term.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]


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UBA Revamps Agency, Unveils Enhanced Value on RedPay Terminals

Published

1 day ago

on

February 12, 2026

By

Ebere Melum-Nwogbo
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United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc has launched a new Aggregator Sales Structure for its RedPay POS and Agency Banking Network, as part of efforts targeted towards the advancement of its mission to deepen relationship with its network and most importantly, expand financial inclusion across Nigeria.

UBA Revamps Agency, Unveils Enhanced Value on RedPay Terminals

Oliver Alawuba. Group Managing Director/CEO, UBA

The newly launched multi benefit structure which offers partners a comprehensive value proposition, was unveiled at the inaugural UBA Aggregator Engagement Session, held at the Bank’s Head Office in Lagos on Tuesday.

The session themed, “POS-itive Impact: Connecting Agents, Merchants, and Customers,” served as a collaborative platform to align strategies for scaling the UBAMONI Agency Banking ecosystem and bringing together key industry aggregators, Point-of-Sale (POS) partners, and network managers,

Emmanuel Lamptey, executive director Designate, Digital Banking,  who spoke at the event, emphasised the critical role partnerships play in achieving national financial inclusion objectives.

“Today’s session marks a pivotal step in our collective journey to democratise financial access in Nigeria. By bringing together our valued aggregators and partners, we are strengthening the ecosystem that connects UBA directly to communities and ensuring that reliable financial services is within everyone’s reach,” he stated.

Emphasising the need for partnerships, Shamsideen Fashola, head, Digital Banking, UBA, who presented the keynote address, outlined the strategic imperative behind the new structure.

“Our aggregators are fundamental to realising our ambition of building Africa’s most impactful digital collections network. This structured framework is designed to be scalable, transparent, and mutually rewarding, empowering our partners with the technology and support needed to drive agent productivity as well as serve under-served communities effectively,” Fashola noted.

The platform delivers comprehensive value to agents and aggregators alike, featuring instant settlement, reliable transaction processing, real-time dashboard reporting, and a full suite of services including dispute and terminal management, analytics, card withdrawals, bill payments, and pay-with-transfer.

For aggregators specifically, the model provides a structured opportunity to on board and manage agents within UBA’s network…

access attractive incentives and commissions, as well as leverage a dedicated Aggregator Admin Portal for real-time visibility into agent performance and transactions

Adetunji Iyiola, head, Agency Banking, UBA, who noted the customer-centric focus of the initiative, emphasized that the structure fundamentally strengthens the collaboration between UBA, merchants, and agent

“This rollout is about creating superior value for every stakeholder, and enabling better service delivery to customers while ensuring our partners have the tools and incentives to thrive. It reinforces our promise to deliver essential banking services exactly where they are needed most”. he said.

With the introduction of the aggregator framework, UBA further cements its leadership in pioneering innovative digital financial solutions that bridge the inclusion gap and drive economic empowerment across the African continent.

United Bank for Africa is one of the largest employers in the financial sector on the African continent, with 25,000 employees group-wide and serving over 45 million customers globally.

Operating in twenty African countries, the United Kingdom, the United States of America, France and the United Arab Emirates, UBA provides retail, commercial and institutional banking services, leading financial inclusion and implementing cutting-edge technology.


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