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Nigeria and Oil: Looking Beyond Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 1)

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Austin Okere
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The recurrent mistake we keep making as a Nation is failing to anticipate and plan for our oil windfalls.

There have been many boom opportunities since Nigeria joined the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1971; Oil prices increased by 400% in six short months after the Yom Kippur War following the Arab Oil Embargo.

Crude prices doubled from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981 following the Iran/Iraq war. The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainties associated the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuring Gulf War – the so called ‘Gulf War windfall’ under then Head of State Ibrahim Babangida.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that the latest windfall happened between February 2011 and August 2014, under the Goodluck Jonathan presidency, when oil prices were much in excess of $100 per barrel.

Another golden opportunity was squandered, characterised by organised kleptocracy of epic proportions as has now come to light.

During this same period Saudi Arabia has amassed a whopping $593b in foreign exchange reserves and has recently announced that it is creating a $2 trillion mega-sovereign wealth fund, funded by sales of current petroleum industry assets, to prepare itself for an age when oil no longer dominates the global economy.

Coming closer home, Algeria, the second biggest African oil producer, with 1.9mbpd has accumulated foreign reserves of $156b and a sovereign wealth fund of $50b. Nigeria, by far the biggest producer in Africa with 2.5mbpd has only managed foreign reserves of $28b and a sovereign wealth fund of a paltry $2.9b – about 5% that of Algeria.

The major difference being that while the Algerians saved for a rainy day during the boom years, Nigeria was busy squandering her wealth, with nothing to show by way of infrastructure or any solid investments.

Yet Nigeria was able to balance her budget, pay off her debts and save over $62b in foreign reserves during the Obasanjo presidency from 1999 to 2007, even though the price of crude was mostly under $40 per barrel, except for the two years between 2005 and 2007 when it hovered between $50 and $75 dollars per barrel.

It is bothersome that with the same level of oil price, Nigeria today is struggling to balance her budget and has resorted to aggressive borrowing to finance the deficit, inadvertently driving us back to where we were before escaping from the huge burden of sovereign debt and the attendant debilitating impact of debt servicing.

I believe that Nigeria can save as much as $36.5b in the coming year if oil prices recover towards the end of 2016 and through 2017 to the projected $80 per barrel.

This assumes we have all agreed that the current crises is much too painful and too precious to waste. It can actually be a blessing in disguise, affording us the much needed leverage to deliberately diversify our economy away from the over dependence on oil, and attempt to become self-sufficient in every low hanging opportunity such as feeding ourselves.

There is a reason why the Chinese use the same word for challenge and opportunity; behind every challenge is an opportunity. We must seize this golden opportunity with both hands and make the structural changes that will lead us to true prosperity as a nation.

Almost every third Nigerian businessman you come across claims to be into Oil and Gas; usually, briefcase contractors who manage to have their ‘papers’ stamped, and proceed to collect money from the treasury of our commonwealth. Yet oil contributed only 6.4% to GDP growth in 2015.

An often overlooked area for rapid economic growth is telecoms, entertainment and media. At a recent event in Lagos, Dr. Doyin Salami, lecturer at Lagos Business School, remarked that ‘The telecommunication sector grew Nigeria’s GDP by 8.7% in 2015, generating spill overs, with uptakes in financial transactions technology and payment systems, e-commerce facilitation and proliferation of transport services, while making the offering of the burgeoning entertainment industry ubiquitous’.

Quite simply, if each of the 34 million MSME’s in Nigeria could be supported with technology to improve their businesses through online presence and seamless bookkeeping to the point of employing one more staff, they would create an additional 34 million jobs, much more than the government can ever provide.

I totally agree with Dr. Salami that Nigeria’s economy has systematically and strategically diversified along the lines of technology and other services sector without Nigerians noticing.  The services sector today contributes as much as 52% of Nigeria’s GDP.

Agriculture is also another sector that could do with special attention. If we strive to produce what we eat, we will not only be saving a whopping $6b from our import bill, but also provide the opportunity for inclusive growth, with the spill over effects down the value chain, from logistics and transportation to light manufacturing.

But we need to make the right investments in infrastructure such as roads and rail transport linking farms with their food processors and markets.

The change that will make all this happen is not the ‘outsourced variety’ where we believe that we can carry on with business as usual, or sit back and fold our arms while only the President delivers the promised change. All hands must be on deck, and we each have to be the change we desire.

The elephant in the room question is; who says oil prices will reach $80 per barrel?
 
Austin Okere is the Founder CWG Plc and Entrepreneur in Residence, Columbia Business School, New York. He also serves on the World Economic Forum Business Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship.


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Nigeria, Others Lag Behind as Egypt Tops Africa in AI Readiness

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Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan Africa countries rank ninth out of nine global regions as Egypt has emerged as Africa’s leading country in artificial intelligence readiness, ranking first on the continent and 51st globally in the 2025 Government AI Readiness Index published by Oxford Insights.

The impressive ranking has been lauded as underscoring North Africa’s growing influence in the global AI race.

According to Egypt’s Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT), the country scored 57.5 points out of 100, climbing 14 places from 65th in 2024.

The Nile nation also ranked fourth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, behind Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

The Oxford Insights index assesses 195 governments using 69 indicators across six pillars, including policy capacity, governance, AI infrastructure, public sector adoption, development and diffusion, and resilience.

Egypt topped the Policy Capacity pillar globally with a perfect score of 100, tying with the UK, Serbia and Australia, an indicator of strong national AI policymaking and institutional readiness.

Oxford Insights noted that countries such as Egypt are “expanding the use of AI across national priorities while shaping policies to strengthen domestic AI ecosystems,” although gaps in infrastructure and talent development remain in some contexts.

MCIT minister Amr Talaat attributed Egypt’s strong performance to deliberate government action.

“This achievement reflects our efforts to integrate artificial intelligence into public services and accelerate digital transformation through Egypt’s second National AI Strategy. We are positioning Egypt as a regional AI hub while ensuring AI delivers real economic and social value,” he said.

Launched for 2025–2030, Egypt’s National AI Strategy targets sectors such as healthcare, justice and public administration, while aiming to train 30 000 AI specialists by 2030 and raise AI’s contribution to GDP to 7.7%.

Talaat also highlighted Egypt’s cybersecurity credentials when he highlighted that the country ranked among the top 12 globally in the ITU’s Global Cyber security Index.

Regionally, the results expose sharp contrasts across Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa ranks ninth out of nine global regions, with an average score of 28.04, reflecting persistent gaps in AI infrastructure and public sector adoption.

However, countries such as Kenya, South Africa, Mauritius and Nigeria lead the sub-region, while Rwanda and Ethiopia are gaining momentum through innovation hubs and policy reforms.

In contrast, the MENA region ranks fifth globally, buoyed by significant investment in AI infrastructure and policy capacity, particularly in Gulf states.


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SERAP Sues INEC Over Alleged ₦55.9Bn Election Funds Diversion

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Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has dragged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to court over the alleged failure to account for ₦55.9 billion reportedly meant for the procurement of election materials for the 2019 general elections.

SERAP Sues INEC Over Alleged ₦55.9Bn Election Funds Diversion

The grave allegations are documented in the latest annual report published by the Auditor-General on 9 September 2025.

In the suit number FHC/ABJ/CS/38/2026 filed last Friday at the Federal High Court in Abuja, SERAP is seeking: “an order of mandamus to direct and compel INEC to account for the missing or diverted N55.9 billion meant to buy smart card readers, ballot papers, and other election materials for the 2019 general elections.”

SERAP is also seeking: “an order of mandamus to direct and compel INEC to disclose the names of all contractors paid the N55.9 billion for the procurement of smart card readers, ballot papers, result sheets, and other election materials for the 2019 general elections, including the names of their directors and shareholders.”

In the suit, SERAP is arguing that: “INEC must operate without corruption if the commission is to ensure free and fair elections in the country and uphold Nigerians’ right to participation.”

SERAP is also arguing that, “INEC cannot ensure impartial administration of future elections if these allegations are not satisfactorily addressed, perpetrators including the contractors involved are not prosecuted and the proceeds of corruption are not fully recovered.”

According to SERAP, “INEC cannot properly carry out its constitutional and statutory responsibilities to conduct free and fair elections in the country if it continues to fail to uphold the basic principles of transparency, accountability and the rule of law.”

SERAP is also arguing that, “These allegations also constitute abuse of public office and show the urgent need by INEC to commit to transparency, accountability, clean governance and the rule of law.”

SERAP also said, “Allegations of corruption in the supply of smart card readers, ballot papers, result sheets and other election materials directly undermine Nigerians’ right to participate in elections that are free, fair, transparent, and credible.”

The lawsuit filed on behalf of SERAP by its lawyers, Kolawole Oluwadare, Kehinde Oyewumi, and Andrew Nwankwo, read in part: “These grim allegations by the Auditor-General suggest a grave violation of the public trust, the Nigerian Constitution 1999 [as amended] and international anticorruption standards.”

“According to the recently published 2022 audited report by the Auditor General of the Federation (AGF), the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) ‘irregularly paid’ over N5.3 billion [N5,312,238,499.39] ‘to a contractor for the supply of Smart Card Readers for the 2019 general elections’.

“The contract was awarded without prior approval from the Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP) and the Federal Executive Council. The payment was also ‘made without any document. There was no evidence of supplies to the commission.’”


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FG Inaugurates N40Bn CCTV Control Centre for Third Mainland Bridge

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Federal government has inaugurated a ₦40 billion closed-circuit television (CCTV) control centre for the Third Mainland Bridge in Lagos.

FG Inaugurates N40Bn CCTV Control Centre for Third Mainland Bridge

Speaking at the inauguration on Sunday, David Umahi, minister of Works, said the project followed extensive rehabilitation works carried out on the bridge after the current administration took office in 2023.

“When we came on board in 2023, we met a very terrible Third Mainland Bridge,” Umahi said, adding that the structure, along with Carter and Iddo bridges, required comprehensive re-evaluation and repairs both above and below water level.

He said President Bola Tinubu approved the total rehabilitation of the bridge, including replacement of expansion joints, noting that the completed work had improved driving conditions and extended the bridge’s lifespan.

Umahi said the CCTV system, first announced in 2025, was designed to curb dangerous driving, prevent suicide attempts and strengthen security.

He added that security personnel would monitor live footage from the control centre and enforce speed limits on the bridge.

The minister commended the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC), which executed the project, for what he described as high-quality delivery. He said the contract also included a surveillance boat and two Hilux vans, which would be handed over to the police to support monitoring and rapid response.

“The idea is that we can see everything that is happening on the bridge,” Umahi said, expressing concern over excessive speeding and urging motorists to comply with traffic regulations.

Earlier, Olufemi Dare, federal controller of works in Lagos, said the facility was the first of its kind on any bridge in Nigeria.

He said the system allows real-time monitoring of activities on the bridge and surrounding waters.

Dare said the project includes 240 solar panels, 10 inverters, a 300 KVA transformer, a standby generator, multiple monitoring screens and full air-conditioning for the control centre.

He added that the contract also covers 1,268 solar-powered street lights and a borehole facility.

According to Dare, the project was awarded at a cost of ₦40.17 billion, with about ₦36 billion paid so far to the contractor. He said the current inauguration marked the first phase, with additional commissioning planned once work on the bridge’s extension is completed.

He thanked the president for approving the project and praised Umahi for ensuring due process during its execution.


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