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Nigeria CPI, USD and Oil in focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Market Analyst at FXTM

With the US election done and dusted, the focus shifts back to key data from across the globe.

It will be a week packed with inflation figures from major economies, including the United States, China and Germany among many others.

But the spotlight shines on Africas 4th largest economy – Nigeria.

Inflationary pressures have been cooling in recent months but the latest figure for October is expected to have jumped 33.4%, from 32.7% in September. This may be the result of fuel hikes and floods in the northern part of the country affecting the harvest season.

The CBN has been on a mission to support the Naira and attract investments using aggressive monetary policy. Interest rates were raised by 50 basis points to 27.25% in September – marking its fifth consecutive hike in 2024. Should the Naira show signs of stabilizing, annual inflation could peak in the final quarter of this year.

Dollar set for volatile week?

Outside of Nigeria, our attention falls on the US Dollar Index (DXY) which could be rattled by key US data and Fed speeches including Jerome Powell.

Besides, it would be a crime to overlook the index after its aggressively bullish reaction to Trump’s US election win. Prices jumped almost 2% last week Wednesday on the “Trump trade” before giving back post-election gains as the Pound and Yen gained.

Note: The DXY tracks the dollars performance against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

With all the above said, the DXY could see more price swings.

* US October CPI report

The October US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to be published on Wednesday 13th November could impact Fed cut expectations around lower US interest rates in December and beyond.

Markets are forecasting: 

  • CPI year-on-year (October 2024 vs. October 2023) to rise 6% from 2.4%in the prior month
  • Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 3%
  • CPI month-on-month (October 2024 vs September 2024) to remain unchanged at 2%
  • Core CPI month-on-month to remain unchanged at 3%.

Headline and core CPI inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2% and 0.3% MoM in October, but the year-over-year headline number is expected to rise 2.6% from 2.4%.

Further evidence of cooling price pressures may support the case for another rate cut in December.

Traders are currently pricing in a 65% probability of another 25-basis point rate cut by the end of 2024.

A softer-than-expected US CPI report has the potential to drag the DXY lower. Should the CPI report beat market forecasts, the DXY could push higher.

Oil hit by China demand woes

Oil tumbled last Friday after Chinese stimulus measures disappointed investor expectations.

Brent shed roughly 1.6% last week as renewed concerns about demand in China and uncertainty over the impacts of Trump’s presidency weighed on the global commodity.

Last week, we discussed how Trump’s victory may pressure oil – possibly hitting oil producing nations like Nigeria. His return to the White House could result in higher domestic oil production while potential tariffs on China may impact global demand. This combination of rising supply and falling demand could enforce fresh pressures on oil which is down 4% since the start of 2024. Should oil prices continue to weaken, this could be a threat to countries who acquire a chunk of their revenues from oil sales.

 


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

Access Bank Staff Arrested for Allegedly Stealing from Customers’ Accounts

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The Katsina State police command, on Thursday, paraded one Adewumi Gabriel, Head of ATM Operations of Access Bank Daura branch, for conspiring with a colleague to steal the sum of N18 million from a customer’s account.

Adewumi confessed to conspiring with David Mesioye, now at large, using their expertise of the bank’s operations to carry out the theft discovered during an audit.

Spokesperson of Katsina State Police Command, Abubakar Aliyu said, some of the exhibits recovered from Adewumi include the sum of N10.18million from his different bank accounts and a physical cash of N366,900, among other valuables.

In a separate incident, Bishir Abdullahi, a 37-year-old resident of Sokoto State, was arrested at an Old Generation Bank ATM in Katsina with 14 stolen ATM cards in his possession.

According to Sadiq, the suspect was a notorious fraudster who specialised in swapping ATM cards of unsuspecting members of the public at ATM points.

He explained that the suspect was arrested by a police officer on duty at the bank’s branch of Tudun Katsira quarters in the Katsina metropolis, following suspicious activities around the ATM machine.

“Upon instant search, 14 suspected stolen ATM cards of different banks were found in his possession.

“Preliminary investigation revealed that the suspect had been using the stolen ATM cards to withdraw sums of money from his victims’ accounts.

“The total amount withdrawn by the suspect from the victims’ accounts is N2.705million. The suspect will be charged to court upon completion of the investigation.”


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PalmPay Reaffirms Commitment to Combating Financial Fraud

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PalmPay, a leading fintech company in Nigeria, has reiterated its commitment to combating financial fraud through cutting-edge technology. This was emphasized during a high-level courtesy visit by the company’s Managing Director and management team to the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU).

Addressing the growing prevalence of fraud in the country, Chika Nwosu, Managing Director of PalmPay Limited, stressed the need for robust collaboration between fintech companies and government agencies. “At PalmPay, we believe that a secure financial ecosystem is the foundation for a thriving digital economy,” he stated.

“Our partnership with the NFIU underscores our dedication to supporting Nigeria’s anti-fraud and anti-money laundering (AML) efforts. Together, we aim to ensure a safer digital experience for all Nigerians.”

Chika also highlighted the significant rise in electronic payment transactions across Nigeria’s financial system, underscoring the importance of proactive measures to address emerging threats.

PalmPay reaffirmed its support for the NFIU’s mission to safeguard the country’s financial infrastructure. The company outlined plans for close collaboration with the agency, including knowledge-sharing initiatives, stakeholder training programs, and the development of innovative solutions to combat fraud in the digital space.

Hafsat Abubakar Bakari, Chief Executive Officer of the NFIU, commended PalmPay for its proactive approach to financial security and its commitment to aligning with national and international regulatory frameworks. She emphasized the importance of continuous collaboration between private sector players and government institutions in the fight against financial crimes.

PalmPay’s visit to the NFIU reflects its vision of contributing to a secure, transparent, and inclusive financial ecosystem in Nigeria. As a fintech leader, PalmPay remains steadfast in its mission to create a digital economy where trust and security drive growth and innovation.

 


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AfDB, Italian Insurance Group Sign $6bn Deal to Foster Investment in Africa

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In a bid to provide credit protection to foster investment in Africa under the “Mattei Plan”, SACE, an Italian insurance-financial group and the African Development Bank Group (AfDB) have signed a $6bn deal.

The collaboration between SACE and AfDB is to sustain the development of initiatives with Africa’s public and private sectors, with additional opportunities for Italian businesses in education, agribusiness, healthcare, energy, water and infrastructure.

The signing took place during the African Investment Forum (AIF) 2024 Market Days currently underway in Rabat, Morocco. The AIF is a platform that helps develop bankable projects, secures funding, and facilitates deal closures. Its goal is to mobilize capital for key sectors, supporting the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and Africa’s development agendas.

The collaboration agreement was signed by Michal Ron, chief international business officer of SACE responsible for the Overseas Network, and Hassatou N’Sele, AfDB’s vice president for finance and chief financial officer.

“The $6 billion Mattei plan to bolster economic links and create an energy hub for Europe, while curbing African emigration to Europe, was unveiled by Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni in February this year. The Italian Government and the African Development Bank Group have planned a series of joint initiatives to support the implementation of the Mattei Plan.”

This initiative establishes synergies between SACE’s products, such as the Push Strategy as an untied export credit product, traditional export credit insurance, and the financial products offered by the African Development Bank Group.

It will support the financing of high-impact projects in Africa while jointly generating opportunities for business matching between African and Italian companies.

The initiative brings together SACE’s products, including untied export credits, traditional export credit insurance, and financial solutions from the AfDB. The collaboration aims to finance high-impact projects in Africa while fostering business partnerships between African and Italian companies.

“Africa represents a market of great potential for our companies, and our collaboration under the “Mattei Plan” will strengthen their positioning in key sectors for the continent’s development, in line with the purpose of the Mattei Plan,” said Ron.

“In particular, we are already identifying new business opportunities where SACE can make a difference thanks to the Push Strategy, a financial instrument that, through guarantees, connects African buyers with Italian SMEs, involving them in strategic projects related to infrastructure, agribusiness, healthcare, energy, and education: priority sectors where Made in Italy, with SACE’s support, can offer a significant contribution.”

The collaboration also looks to expand commercial relations between Italy and Africa, encouraging the business of Italian companies interested in operating on the continent in priority sectors of the Mattei Plan: education and training, agriculture/agro-industry, healthcare, energy, water, infrastructure, including digital economy infrastructure.

 


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