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Nigeria CPI, USD and Oil in focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Market Analyst at FXTM

With the US election done and dusted, the focus shifts back to key data from across the globe.

It will be a week packed with inflation figures from major economies, including the United States, China and Germany among many others.

But the spotlight shines on Africas 4th largest economy – Nigeria.

Inflationary pressures have been cooling in recent months but the latest figure for October is expected to have jumped 33.4%, from 32.7% in September. This may be the result of fuel hikes and floods in the northern part of the country affecting the harvest season.

The CBN has been on a mission to support the Naira and attract investments using aggressive monetary policy. Interest rates were raised by 50 basis points to 27.25% in September – marking its fifth consecutive hike in 2024. Should the Naira show signs of stabilizing, annual inflation could peak in the final quarter of this year.

Dollar set for volatile week?

Outside of Nigeria, our attention falls on the US Dollar Index (DXY) which could be rattled by key US data and Fed speeches including Jerome Powell.

Besides, it would be a crime to overlook the index after its aggressively bullish reaction to Trump’s US election win. Prices jumped almost 2% last week Wednesday on the “Trump trade” before giving back post-election gains as the Pound and Yen gained.

Note: The DXY tracks the dollars performance against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

With all the above said, the DXY could see more price swings.

* US October CPI report

The October US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to be published on Wednesday 13th November could impact Fed cut expectations around lower US interest rates in December and beyond.

Markets are forecasting: 

  • CPI year-on-year (October 2024 vs. October 2023) to rise 6% from 2.4%in the prior month
  • Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 3%
  • CPI month-on-month (October 2024 vs September 2024) to remain unchanged at 2%
  • Core CPI month-on-month to remain unchanged at 3%.

Headline and core CPI inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2% and 0.3% MoM in October, but the year-over-year headline number is expected to rise 2.6% from 2.4%.

Further evidence of cooling price pressures may support the case for another rate cut in December.

Traders are currently pricing in a 65% probability of another 25-basis point rate cut by the end of 2024.

A softer-than-expected US CPI report has the potential to drag the DXY lower. Should the CPI report beat market forecasts, the DXY could push higher.

Oil hit by China demand woes

Oil tumbled last Friday after Chinese stimulus measures disappointed investor expectations.

Brent shed roughly 1.6% last week as renewed concerns about demand in China and uncertainty over the impacts of Trump’s presidency weighed on the global commodity.

Last week, we discussed how Trump’s victory may pressure oil – possibly hitting oil producing nations like Nigeria. His return to the White House could result in higher domestic oil production while potential tariffs on China may impact global demand. This combination of rising supply and falling demand could enforce fresh pressures on oil which is down 4% since the start of 2024. Should oil prices continue to weaken, this could be a threat to countries who acquire a chunk of their revenues from oil sales.

 


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E-Financial

FG Moves to End Double Taxation

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Federal government has started new efforts to improve tax collection in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and stop the problem of multiple taxation.

FG Moves to End Double Taxation

Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the economy, disclosed this after a meeting with Nyesom Wike, minister, FCT, on Sunday.

According to Oyedele, the meeting focused on strengthening cooperation between the Ministry of Finance and the FCT Administration to support development projects in Abuja.

A major part of the discussion was how to improve tax administration in the territory.

He explained that the proposed tax harmonisation would create a more coordinated tax system, reduce the burden of multiple taxes on residents and businesses, and improve government revenue collection.

Oyedele said the plan is in line with the new tax reform law and is expected to help accelerate development across the FCT.

“The two ministers also reviewed plans to harmonise tax administration within the FCT,” he said.

He added that the initiative would eliminate multiple taxation while ensuring that government revenue is collected more efficiently.

The meeting also examined ways to strengthen collaboration on infrastructure projects across Abuja.

According to Oyedele, discussions centred on supporting the FCT’s ongoing infrastructure renewal programme.

He commended Wike’s approach to development, noting that the minister has focused on completing long-abandoned projects rather than starting new ones.

Oyedele said this strategy is helping to unlock economic and social benefits for residents by bringing stalled public projects back into use.

The proposed tax harmonisation is expected to make tax administration easier for individuals and businesses operating in the FCT while aligning Abuja’s revenue system with the provisions of the new tax reform law.

 


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Standard Bank Targets $15.4b SME Growth in Nigeria, Others with Trade Expansion Drive

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Standard Bank Group has identified Nigeria and four other markets as strategic growth hubs as it seeks to tap into $15.4 billion revenue opportunity driven by expanding small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and rising intra-African trade.

The bank disclosed the plan through Bill Blackie, the Chief Executive Officer of its Business and Commercial Banking (Standard Bank Group) division, who outlined the lender’s growth strategy in an interview with Bloomberg.

Under the strategy, Standard Bank will deepen its presence in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania while consolidating its dominance in South Africa. The five markets account for about 85 per cent of the estimated revenue opportunity available to the group’s BCB operations.

The expansion forms part of the lender’s broader ambition to accelerate earnings growth through 2028, leveraging increasing demand for banking services among businesses across the continent.

According to Blackie, the BCB division has recorded robust growth over the past five years, supported by rising business activity and greater demand for financial services across Africa.

He said the division doubled both headline earnings and return on capital between 2020 and 2025, with return on capital increasing from 19 per cent to 38 per cent during the period.

Earnings from operations across the continent also expanded at an average annual rate of 30 per cent.

Building on this performance, the bank is targeting compound annual growth of between eight and nine per cent through 2028, although Blackie expressed confidence that growth could reach double-digit levels as the strategy gains traction.

A key pillar of Standard Bank’s growth strategy is expanding support for SMEs and mid-sized businesses, which account for most enterprises across Africa.

The bank is particularly positioning itself to benefit from opportunities created by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is expected to accelerate economic integration and cross-border commerce across the continent.

According to the International Trade Centre, nearly half of Africa’s small businesses export to other African countries, compared with only 14 per cent of larger firms, underscoring the critical role of SMEs in driving regional commerce.

The lender is also leveraging its extensive African footprint and strategic partnership with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) to attract businesses seeking access to international markets, particularly China.


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NAICOM’s 18 Months Management Spill @ African Alliance Ends

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The National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) has handed over the management of African Alliance Insurance Plc to a newly constituted board nominated by shareholders.

‎The move ends a regulatory intervention that rescued the troubled insurer from the brink of collapse.

The development marks a major milestone in the insurance industry’s efforts to strengthen policyholders’ protection and restore confidence in the sector, following months of intensive regulatory oversight aimed at stabilising the company.

NAICOM had stepped into the affairs of African Alliance Insurance in October 2024 after the insurer was hit by severe liquidity constraints, mounting annuity payment arrears, unresolved claims obligations, regulatory infractions and reputational challenges that threatened its survival and eroded public trust.

‎Speaking at the handover ceremony, Commissioner for Insurance, Olusegun Omosehin, said the intervention had achieved its primary objectives of restoring operational stability, settling outstanding liabilities and protecting the interests of shareholders and annuitants.

Omosehin said a successful turnaround demonstrates the regulator’s commitment to safeguarding the insurance industry while ensuring that policyholders do not bear the consequences of corporate distress.

He also highlighted the significance of the newly enacted Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025, describing it as a game-changer for the sector.

The Commissioner observed that had the fund been in existence before the African Alliance’s crisis, it would have helped to cushion the impact on policyholders by facilitating the timely settlement of legitimate claims and annuity obligations.

He charged the new board to uphold high standards of corporate governance, transparency and regulatory compliance, while prioritising prompt claims settlement, sound solvency management and prudent business practices.

Industry stakeholders view the successful rehabilitation of African Alliance as a test case for regulatory intervention in Nigeria’s insurance sector, particularly at a time when operators are under pressure to strengthen their capital base, improve governance standards and rebuild public confidence.

During its tenure, the NAICOM appointed an interim board to restore liquidity through the recovery of trapped dividend funds and other inflows, settled a significant portion of annuity arrears and legacy claims, facilitated the transfer of the company’s annuity portfolio, completed forensic and actuarial reviews and addressed several regulatory and operational challenges. ‎


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