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Nigeria: IMF’s Warning Weighs Heavily On Sentiment- FXTM

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The improving sentiment towards the Nigerian economy was dealt a heavy blow in March following reports of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) warning of a potential economic collapse if the nation failed to move ahead with reforms.

Although at the start of the year the economic outlook was elevated on repeated occasion with even the World Bank predicting an encouraging growth for 2017, the pending report from the IMF which may be seen as a warning could create some headwinds as the nation attempt to secure international loans worth $1.4 billion.

While global markets have acknowledged that the largest economy in Africa is in the process of a key fundamental transformation that may exceed all expectations, there still remains a threat of internal and external risks creating obstacles.

Some optimism still exits over the economic growth recovery plan for 2017-2020 which displayed an encouraging outlook for the nation. The four-year plan was built around achieving a healthy economic growth and sustainable development while the nation embarked on its quest to breaking away from oil reliance.

With there being a very strong focus on the nation enhancing both public and private sector efficiency while also boosting overall productivity, the growth forecast of 7% by 2020 could become a reality if the protocol is followed.

Nigeria must do all it can to achieve a stable macroeconomic environment such as invest heavily in agriculture and bolster infrastructure investments to generate sustainable economic growth in the longer term.

Focusing on Nigeria’s macro fundamentals, economic data this quarter has been mixed with inflation cooling down for the first time in 15 months in February.

While inflation has started to somewhat stabilize, the high unemployment remains a cause for concern which may become another stumbling block to stable economic growth.

The mixed economic data and lingering uncertainty still enshrouding Nigeria have encouraged the Central Bank of Nigeria to maintain a passive stance in its recent policy meeting. Although the sentiment towards the nation continues to display some early signs of improvement, long-term fears over decelerating economic growth still weigh heavily on sentiment.

While the Central Bank of Nigeria has intervened to somewhat quell the foreign exchange scarcity dilemma, the multiple exchanges is a damaging policy that even the IMF has urged the government to rectify.

Speaking of foreign exchange policies, the Naira currently trades around 390 on the parallel exchange after the Central Bank of Nigeria injected a mammoth $1.138 billion in the forex markets to meet bids for forwards. While the repeated injections of Dollars in the foreign exchange may buoy the Naira, questions should be raised over the sustainability of this method. With the multiple exchanges still a major cause for concern that needs to be seriously dealt with, expectations remain heightened over the CBN taking further steps to fully bridge the gap in a sustainable way, ultimately creating one equilibrium currency exchange. Although the Naira may be poised to appreciate further in the short term as the CBN continues to pump Dollars into the markets, the possibility of a currency devaluation in the future could expose the Naira to downside shocks.

Outside of Nigeria, the cautious attitude the Federal Reserve has adopted coupled with the renewed Trump jitters has exposed the Greenback to major downside risks. A vulnerable Dollar may pose some benefits to emerging markets with Nigeria on the list.

With the growing concerns over Trump’s economic policies punishing the Dollar, emerging market currencies may receive a boost as concerns ease of capital outflows.

With Trump already facing headwinds in the early stages of his presidency in enacting his policies, the threat of the protectionism becoming a reality may subside consequently reducing some pressures on emerging markets.

Looking at oil, prices were exposed to downside risks this quarter with WTI Crude tumbling towards $47 after optimism diminished over the effectiveness of OPEC’s supply cut agreement. The consistent buildup seen in U.S Crude stockpiles swiftly revived the oversupply fears while concerns over some OPEC members not fully respecting compliance cuts weighed heavily on sentiment. Oil prices could be instore for further punishment moving forward with the bullish effect of last year’s unexpected production cut wearing off amid the global glut anxieties. A drop in oil prices may enforce further downside pressures on Nigeria which currently remains reliant on oil exports for a chunk of its government’s revenue.

As we enter the second quarter of the trading year, investors will be paying very close attention to economic data and if the nation is able to secure the $1.4 billion worth of international loans. The blueprints to a recovery are already in place and now actions must be taken to propel the nation away from recessionary levels.

With the IMF warning Nigeria that its economy needs urgent reforms with the government changing its exchange policy, the CBN may be prompted to intervene in an effort to create some stability while improving the chances of securing the critical loan needed.

On the foreign exchange side, although the combination of repeated interventions from the CBN and Dollar weakness may elevate the Naira, the long-term trajectory still tilts to the downside, especially when factoring a potential devaluation.

 


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E-Financial

Ecobank in Talks with Bank of China for Direct Yuan Settlement

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Ecobank, Pan-African lender, said it is in advanced talks with the Bank of China to set up a direct yuan settlement system by the end of 2026, eliminating the need to use the U.S. dollar as an intermediary in trade with China.

Ecobank in Talks with Bank of China for Direct Yuan Settlement

For traders in Lagos, Nairobi or Lomé sourcing goods from China, payments have so far been complex and costly.

Paying a supplier in Guangzhou typically requires converting local currency into dollars, then into yuan.

The two-step process increases banking fees and cuts into margins.

Ecobank aims to remove that constraint.

“We are looking at opportunities for us to settle with, instead of going through the dollar, we do it directly with the Chinese yuan,” Jeremy Awori, chief executive, Ecobank told Reuters.

The move reflects current trade dynamics: China is Africa’s largest trading partner by a wide margin. Chinese exports to Africa rose 26% to $225 billion in 2025, contributing to a record $348 billion in total trade.

Beijing has also expanded its financial footprint, with around $39 billion in new contracts signed in 2025, making it the largest bilateral investor by new flows.

Ecobank’s talks with the Bank of China are part of a broader shift across Africa to reduce reliance on the dollar.

In November, South Africa’s Standard Bank took a similar step by joining China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS).

Across the continent, governments and financial institutions are seeking alternatives to a currency that has become costly and harder to access. Backed by the African Union, the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) is already reducing conversion costs for intra-African trade. Some countries are moving further: Tanzania and Zambia have restricted the use of the dollar in domestic transactions, while the Democratic Republic of Congo plans to do the same next year.

The trend is also supported by the growing influence of the BRICS+ bloc, which Egypt and Ethiopia have joined and which is promoting a more multipolar financial system.

China is no longer the only player pursuing this strategy.

A high-stakes contest is emerging with the United Arab Emirates for financial and logistical influence in Africa.

Abu Dhabi is expanding its presence through investments in ports and energy infrastructure, alongside financial initiatives.

The UAE has signed multiple currency swap agreements with countries including Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria to facilitate transactions in dirhams and local currencies, reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar.

 


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CBN Warns of Cyber Hack Attempt Days after CAC Attack

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has warned the public of a fresh cyber hack attempt to access personal accounts, just days after the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) confirmed a major cyber attack on its systems.

CBN Warns of Cyber Hack Attempt Days After CAC Attack

CBN

In a statement signed by Hakama Sidi‑Ali, acting director of corporate communications, issued Tuesday, April 21, 2026, the apex bank said cybercriminals are circulating fraudulent emails and online messages falsely claiming to originate from the CBN.

The messages reportedly contain suspicious links and false narratives about the bank’s leadership, licensing activities, and policy decisions, with the aim of compromising Nigerians’ personal information and hacking their accounts.

The CBN reiterated that its official website remains www.cbn.gov.ng and urged Nigerians to avoid clicking links or sharing sensitive data via suspicious websites or unknown contacts. It also advised the public to verify all CBN‑related communications through the official portal and recognised media outlets, and to report suspected fraudulent sites or emails to law enforcement.

The warning comes after the CAC confirmed on April 15, 2026, that its information systems were breached by hackers, exposing millions of company documents and triggering an investigation by the Nigeria Data Protection Commission (NDPC).

The CBN said it is strengthening its cybersecurity frameworks in collaboration with relevant agencies to protect the financial system and safeguard users from digital fraud.


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PalmPay Hits 35m Users’ Milestone

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PalmPay said that it has surpassed 35 million users, a figure that reflects a broader transition in the sector from rapid customer acquisition to sustained, everyday financial usage.

PalmPay Hits 35m Users’ Milestone

Chika Nwosu, Managing Director-CEO, PalmPay Nigeria

The consumer payments platform entered Nigeria’s fintech market in 2019 and is today a major player, offering a suite of financial services including transfers, bill payments, and digital insurance to promote financial inclusion.

In a market historically shaped by traditional banks, emerging fintechs, and a strong cash culture, scale alone is no longer the defining benchmark of success.

Instead, attention is shifting to how effectively platforms integrate into the daily financial routines of individuals and businesses.

Central to PalmPay’s growth is its alignment with Nigeria’s payment infrastructure.

The platform has executed live transactions on the National Payment Stack operated by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS), placing it within an interoperable framework that connects banks, fintechs, and other financial service providers.

Within this ecosystem, industry observers note that competition is increasingly determined by system performance—uptime, transaction success rates, and reliability—rather than product differentiation alone.

However, integration at the infrastructure level does not automatically translate to inclusion. According to data from Enhancing Financial Innovation and Access (EFInA), a significant proportion of Nigerians—particularly in rural and underserved communities—remain outside the formal financial system.

To address this gap, PalmPay has expanded its agent network, mirroring a wider industry approach that combines digital platforms with physical access points.

Through these agents, users can carry out deposits, withdrawals, transfers, and onboarding, effectively bridging the divide between cash-based transactions and digital finance.

This hybrid model has become a cornerstone of financial service delivery in Nigeria, underscoring the importance of distribution alongside technology.

Beyond core payment services, PalmPay has also extended into financial literacy and capacity-building initiatives, targeting underserved groups such as women-led businesses and first-time digital users. The move signals a growing recognition that access alone is insufficient without the knowledge and confidence to participate fully in the financial system.

Overall, PalmPay’s reported scale offers insight into a maturing fintech landscape, where growth is increasingly defined not just by user numbers, but by the extent to which platforms become embedded in the everyday financial lives of Nigerians.


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