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Nigeria Marches into Q3 with A Mission to Stabilize

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Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM writes: It’s quite interesting how, despite several months of disappointing domestic data and ongoing recessionary woes, Nigeria remains resilient, with the nation on a mission to stabilize by the end of 2017.

Although this year has dished out a myriad of trials ranging from internal concerns, external shocks and falling oil prices, the macro fundamentals of the largest economy in Africa continue to stabilize with a recent string of positive data verifying this statement.

The subtle signs of recovery can already be seen across GDP, inflation, FX and even the balance of trade, all of which should support the growing confidence over the nation’s health. As we enter the third quarter of 2017, foreign investors will be watching Nigeria closely to see whether the country is able to maintain the current momentum and ultimately break away from its recessionary chains.

Nigeria’s persistent inflation concerns eased slightly in June following reports that the rate of inflation declined for the fourth consecutive month in May to 16.25%, the lowest figure for the year so far.

This continued price stability has played a crucial role in boosting foreign investor risk sentiment towards the nation and has also heavily supported the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).

With the Consumer Price Index visibly cooling, the Central Bank of Nigeria should have some breathing room to cut interest rates in the future and consequently boost business confidence, ultimately supporting further growth.

Although disappointment initially flooded the Nigerian markets a few months ago following a soft first quarter GDP growth of -0.52%, it must be kept in mind that this was actually the best GDP performance seen for four quarters.

With a variety of non-oil sectors in Nigeria ranging from manufacturing to agriculture and transportation already turning positive, the overall outlook is very encouraging with the impact potentially being felt in the second, third and final quarters of 2017.

Economic growth for the second quarter of 2017 is speculated to hit 1.3%; if this is confirmed, then Nigeria will have officially broken away from recession after five quarters of decline. Such a scenario will be highly beneficial for the nation as a display of stability will magnetize foreign investors.

Speaking of foreign investments, the MSCI’s recent decision to delay a potential removal of the MSCI Nigeria Index until this November should further support confidence and sentiment towards the nation.

It is highly likely that the stabilizing economic environment and noticeable improvement in liquidity across major market segments played a key role in MSCI’s decision to re-evaluate Nigeria’s position in its Index.

With the internal investment community displaying optimism over Nigeria’s medium to longer term outlook, there is a likelihood that MSCI will keep Nigeria on its Frontier Index. While positive signs are already visible with Nigeria’s weighing on the MSCI Frontier rising, the threat of MSCI removing the nation could still negatively impact its current recovery.

The Central Bank of Nigeria should find itself in the spotlight in the second half of 2017 as investors wait to see whether interest rates will be hiked or trimmed.

Although the Central Bank may be commended on its logical decision to maintain key interest rates at 14% as the nation recovered some ground and continued its quest to diversification beyond oil exports, it may be time to make a move.

With inflation cooling, data improving and the Naira supported on the parallel markets, a potential interest rate cut to 12% could be on the cards.

While the seeds of diversification have already been planted, Nigeria still remains vulnerable to falling oil in the short to medium term. A sharp and sustained depreciation of oil not only presents a serious threat to the implementation of the approved 2017 budget but also to the Naira’s current stability.

It must be understood that oil prices directly impact Nigeria’s foreign external reserves and a drop in the commodity will most likely reduce Dollar supplies, consequently impacting the stability of the Naira Exchange.

Instability in the Naira exchange will not only punish Nigerians but would also repel foreign investors. With oil prices officially in a bear market, this should be the green lights for Nigeria to switch up gears on the quest to diversification.

Focusing on the Naira, the currency currently trades around 365 against the Dollar as the CBN repeatedly injects Dollars into the foreign exchange markets to maintain liquidity. While this method has boosted sentiment towards Nigeria and created stability, questions should be raised of this strategy’s sustainability.

As discussed earlier, falling oil prices have the ability to create instability in the Nigerian foreign exchange and such should not be the case.

The multiple exchanges is still an issue lingering in the background that the Central Bank must strive to rectify while allowing the natural forces of supply and demand to determine the true value of the Naira.

All in all, the sentiment towards the Nigerian economy is taking a turn for the better as the economy continues to improve.

Much attention will be directed towards MSCI’s decision of Nigeria’s Index and the pending GDP report for Q2 which should provide further insight as to how the nation has fared so far this year.

While external risks such as higher US interest rates and falling oil may enforce some downside pressures, the nation should prove resilient as it continues its ongoing quest to diversifying and achieving a stable macroeconomic climate.


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E-Financial

CBN Stops 4 Fintechs from Onboarding New Customers

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has issued a directive to four fintech companies, instructing them to halt the onboarding of new customers pending further notice.

CBN Stops 4 Fintechs from Onboarding New Customers

The affected fintechs—OPay, Palmpay, Kuda Bank, and Moniepoint—have been linked to allegations of accounts being used for illicit foreign exchange transactions.

Representatives from the companies confirmed that the CBN’s order is related to these allegations.

However, they noted that the directive might be misdirected, as the majority of the implicated accounts belonged to commercial banks, not fintech platforms.

“I can confirm that 90% of the accounts implicated in the illicit forex transactions are with commercial banks, and only 10% are with fintechs. Why then has the CBN not extended this directive to the commercial banks? We face a widespread issue here, and targeting fintechs seems like an unfair focus on the more vulnerable targets,” one of the sources explained.

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) recently secured a court order to freeze at least 1,146 bank accounts owned by various individuals and companies allegedly involved in illegal foreign exchange transactions.

Justice Emeka Nwite, in a decision on the ex-parte motion presented by the anti-graft agency’s lawyer, Ekele Iheanacho, also approved the commission’s request to complete the investigation within 90 days.


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Banks Lose N2.09Bn to Frauds in Q4 2023 – FITC 

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Nigerian banks lost a total of N2.09 billion to frauds in Q4 2023 with mobile emerging as the top channel through which the largest amount was lost, according to report by Nairametrics.

Banks Lose N2.09Bn to Frauds in Q4 2023 – FITC 

This was revealed in the latest Fraud and Forgeries report released by the Financial Institutions Training Centre (FITC).

According to the report, the N2.09 billion loss recorded in Q4 was a 77.58% increase compared with N1.18 billion lost by the banks in Q3 2024.

FITC in the report also revealed that a total of 12,405 cases of fraud were recorded in Q4 2024. When compared to the 12,066 cases recorded in Q3, this shows a 2.81% increase.

“The data for the last quarter of 2023 indicates that computer/web fraud, mobile fraud, and POS-related fraud were the three most prevalent types of fraud, continuing the trend observed all year round in 2023,” the report added.

However, in terms of the actual loss through the channels, FITC said mobile fraud accounted for the highest loss at 17.039% with a value of N356.57 million, while suppression of cash entries accounted for 3.75%, totaling N78.45 million.

The report noted that there was an overall increase in the amount lost across all channels except for Bank Branch which recorded a decline and Van and Agents which didn’t record any fraud cases, while the amount lost via the web, bank branch, and PoS channel decreased.

“In their order of magnitude, the amount lost through the ATM channel grew by 711.15%, raising the value to 40.47 million from N4.99 million in Q3. POS fraud also witnessed a surge in the amount lost by 95.01% from N7.5 million to N14.6 million.

“For Web fraud, the amount lost increased significantly by 50.49%, rising from N19.12 million to N28.77 million. However, bank branch-related frauds saw a decline of 59.73%, with the amount lost shrinking from N884.96 million in the previous quarter to N356.34 million in Q4 2023,” it said.

Strengthening security in banks

Advising the banks to respond adequately to the rising cases of fraud, FITC said Nigerian banks will need to invest heavily in upgrading and fortifying their digital infrastructure. This, it said, involves implementing cutting-edge cybersecurity measures, robust identity verification systems, and real-time transaction monitoring.

According to the organization, regular security audits and penetration testing are essential for promptly identifying and addressing system vulnerabilities.

“Furthermore, banks should prioritize customer and employee education to raise awareness about prevalent fraud schemes and promote effective prevention practices. Collaborating closely with law enforcement agencies is crucial to enhancing the capacity for investigating and prosecuting fraud cases.

“Regulatory compliance should be a top priority, requiring banks to stay current with evaluating regulations related to fraud prevention and data security.

Compliance not only ensures adherence to legal standards but also demonstrates a commitment to safeguarding customers’ financial assets,” FITC advised.

It added that following these recommendations would empower Nigerian commercial and merchant banks to better protect themselves and their customers against fraud and forgeries in the current situation.

 


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Nigerians Trust Bitcoin for Financial Security than Sanks – Report

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Nigerians have more trust in Bitcoin-based systems than in traditional alternatives such as banks and government, a new report by Elastos, an open-source blockchain website, has stated.

Nigerians Trust Bitcoin for Financial Security than Sanks – Report

According to its inaugural BIT Index (Bitcoin; Innovation & Trust), emerging markets are driving the adoption of Bitcoin, with Nigeria and the UAE leading the charge.

The report revealed that 66 per cent of Nigerian respondents and 35 per cent from Brazil had more confidence in Bitcoin-based systems than alternatives like banks or national governments, compared to just 16 per cent in Germany and 21 per cent in the UK.

The survey also revealed that 20 per cent of Nigerian consumers use Bitcoin to conduct transactions at least once a day, while 67 per cent would have more trust in Bitcoin to protect their life savings than traditional services like banks, local governments, and cash.

According to the platform, the research was compiled from online interviews conducted with 1,407 self-defined ‘tech savvy’ respondents in Brazil, Germany, Nigeria, South Korea, the UAE, the UK, and the US.

It stated that the interviews were completed by a third party, a registered market research company, between March 30 and April 4, 2024.

“When it comes to ensuring the integrity of online transactions, emerging market respondents also revealed their relative confidence in Bitcoin compared to alternatives,” it indicated.

According to the report, 66 per cent of Nigerian respondents and 35 per cent of Brazil have more confidence in Bitcoin-based systems than alternatives, such as banks or national governments, compared to figures of just 16 per cent (Germany) and 21 per cent (UK) who feel the same.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Hargreaves,  Elastos’ global head, Business Development & ESG, described the BIT Index’s inaugural findings as indicative of the role the ‘global south’ was playing in the adoption of decentralised currencies such as Bitcoin.

“The BIT Index offers a fascinating and sobering insight into the industry. The fact that over two-thirds of Nigerian consumers and a third of their counterparts from the UAE and Brazil would feel more confident entrusting their life savings to Bitcoin rather than traditional financial instruments speaks volumes about the protagonism these regions are already playing.

“In many instances, the driving factor is the absence of viable, accessible alternatives to, for instance, conduct cross-border transactions or mitigate the impact of inflation,” he said.

According to Chainalysis, a cryptocurrency research firm, Nigeria’s crypto transaction volume grew year-over-year to $56.7bn in 2023.

It stated that the country’s crypto economy continued to grow despite market turmoil in the space.

On the contrary, the government has been taking strong measures to restrict and clamp down on cryptocurrency exchanges and platforms operating in the country.

 

 


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