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Nigeria Week Ahead: CBN Rate Decision, Inflation & Oil in Focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

The combination of mounting geopolitical risk and Fed rate expectations rocked global financial markets last week. Volatility is likely to intensify over the next few days as investors not only focus on these key themes but top-tier economic reports from across the globe among other high-risk events.

In Nigeria, the CBN’s recent removal of FX restrictions on 43 items sparked some optimism as dollar supply surged. This development offered an opportunity for the Naira to fight and was also welcomed by the IMF which acknowledged the series of reforms aimed at fixing Nigeria’s economy.

Nevertheless, inflation remains piping hot in Africa’s largest economy while interest rates are currently at their highest levels since the monetary policy rate was adopted in 2006. It is worth keeping in mind that, the inflation menace continues to draw strength from the removal of fuel subsidies, devaluation of the official Naira and security issues in food production regions. Given how inflation is projected to jump in September to 27.1%, the CBN is likely to raise interest rates at its policy meeting this week for the fifth consecutive time. This vicious cycle of rising inflation and interest rates certainly presents a risk to Nigeria’s fragile economy. The question is whether the central bank will move ahead with a 25bp hike or opt for a larger move to tame inflation.

Volatile week ahead for USD?

Dollar volatility could be the name of the game this week due to key US economic data and speeches by a host of Fed officials.

After receiving a boost from stronger-than-expected US inflation data, dollar bulls could switch into higher gear if the incoming economic releases support the case for another Fed hike in 2023. The US Empire manufacturing will be in focus on Monday, with key US retail sales and industrial production figures published on Tuesday and US initial jobless claims on Thursday. These reports will be complemented by speeches from various Fed officials including Fed chair Jerome Powell.

If US economic data miss expectations and Fed officials reiterate their dovish remarks, this could hit the dollar as bets rise over the Fed pausing hikes for the rest of 2023. A strong set of economic releases may fuel speculation around the Fed raising rates one more time this year – boosting the dollar as a result.

Commodity Spotlight – Oil

Oil prices ended last week gaining over 7% thanks to mounting geopolitical risks.

The global commodity has the potential to extend gains due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, home to almost a third of global oil supply. Bulls are likely to draw additional strength from the U.S. tightening its sanctions against Russian crude exports. Supply concerns remain rife with growing concerns over the conflict between Israel and Hamas spreading through the region, resulting in major disruptions in an already tight market.

While oil is likely to remain supported by supply-side factors, the demand side of the equation may create headwinds down the road – especially when factoring global recession fears. Looking at the technical picture, Brent bulls have a steep hill to climb before heading anywhere near $100. But the daily close above $90 last Friday could be the first signs of bulls reclaiming lost territory.


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MTN Launches One TV with Free-to-View, Pay-as-You-Go

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MTN Group has begun rolling out MTN One TV, a new entertainment proposition designed to make digital video content more accessible, relevant, and flexible for customers across African markets.

MTN Launches One TV with Free-to-View, Pay-as-You-Go

Introduced in line with MTN’s Ambition 2030 strategy, MTN One TV brings together local storytelling, live channels, international programming, and market-specific viewing options tailored to how customers across the continent access and pay for digital entertainment.

The proposition is designed to give customers greater choice in how they watch content, with viewing models that may vary by market and can include free-to-view content, advertising-funded experiences, pay-as-you-watch access, and subscription offerings.

Depending on local availability, customers may also be able to pay through airtime, Mobile Money, and other locally supported payment methods, helping to reduce common barriers to streaming access.

Beyond enhancing customer experiences, MTN One TV creates new opportunities for African creators, broadcasters, advertisers, and ecosystem partners by helping connect content to wider audiences through MTN’s scale across connectivity, payments, and digital services.

By bringing together a broad mix of content experiences under a single proposition, MTN aims to support greater content discovery, broader audience reach, and sustainable growth across Africa’s digital entertainment ecosystem.

Anchored in MTN’s strategic platforms of Connectivity, Fintech, and Digital Infrastructure, MTN One TV forms part of the Group’s broader ambition to build digital experiences that create value for customers while enabling participation and growth across Africa’s digital economy.

“Entertainment is increasingly becoming an important gateway to digital participation,” said Selorm Adadevoh, MTN group chief commercial, strategy and transformation officer.

“Through MTN One TV, we are leveraging the scale of our connectivity, fintech, and digital capabilities to make relevant content more accessible while creating new opportunities for Africa’s creative and digital economies. This is aligned with our ambition to deliver digital solutions for Africa’s progress.”

MTN One TV is being introduced progressively across MTN markets through a phased rollout approach that reflects local market needs, existing services, and partnership opportunities.

Over time, MTN will bring together a combination of video capabilities, content partnerships, and customer experiences under the MTN One TV brand to create a more consistent and scalable entertainment proposition across its footprint.

Through MTN One TV, MTN continues to extend its role beyond connectivity by combining entertainment, payments, and digital services to deliver experiences tailored to the needs of African consumers.

The rollout supports MTN’s Ambition 2030 vision of leading digital solutions for Africa’s progress while expanding access to digital entertainment across the continent.

 


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IATA Drops Bombshell: Nigeria Among World’s Most Expensive Countries to Run an Airline

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International Air Transport Association (IATA) has identified Nigeria as one of the most expensive countries in the world for airline operations, citing high taxes, charges and operational costs that continue to weigh heavily on local carriers.

IATA Drops Bombshell: Nigeria Among World's Most Expensive Countries to Run an Airline

IATA’s Regional Vice President for Africa and the Middle East, Kamil Al-Awadhi, disclosed this during the association’s Annual General Meeting held in Rio de Janeiro.

Al-Awadhi said that although Nigeria’s Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, had been pursuing reforms aimed at improving the aviation sector, airlines operating in the country still faced enormous cost pressures.

According to him, the high-cost operating environment has continued to affect the profitability and competitiveness of Nigerian airlines, making it difficult for the industry to realise its full potential.

He noted that excessive taxes, regulatory charges and other operating expenses remained major obstacles to airline growth across the region, with Nigeria ranking among the most challenging markets from a cost perspective.

Al-Awadhi urged member states of the Economic Community of West African States to adopt a proposed 25 per cent reduction in aviation taxes and charges to ease the burden on airlines and passengers.

According to him, lowering taxes and charges would reduce airfares, stimulate passenger traffic and strengthen the competitiveness of carriers operating within West Africa.

He stressed that a more supportive policy environment was critical to unlocking the economic benefits of aviation, including increased trade, tourism and regional integration.

Industry stakeholders have consistently advocated lower taxes and regulatory fees, arguing that the current cost structure makes air travel less affordable and limits the growth of the sector.

IATA’s latest remarks add to calls for governments in West Africa to implement policies that will promote a more sustainable and competitive aviation industry across the region.


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NASENI Trains 50 Women in Kano on Renewable Energy Technologies Under She-Powers Initiative

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The National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI), under the leadership of its Executive Vice Chairman/CEO, Khalil Suleiman Halilu, has trained 50 women in Kano State on inverter and battery technologies through its She-Powers Energy Initiative.

NASENI Trains 50 Women in Kano on Renewable Energy Technologies Under She-Powers Initiative

The three-day programme, held at the Technology Incubation Centre, Farm Centre, Kano which ended yesterday, was designed to equip participants with practical renewable energy skills, promote women-led enterprises, and enhance sustainable livelihoods.

 The initiative forms part of NASENI’s broader commitment to empowering women, creating economic opportunities, and expanding participation in Nigeria’s growing clean energy sector. It also aligns with the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu by supporting job creation, entrepreneurship, and inclusive economic development.

 Through targeted interventions such as the She-Powers Energy Initiative, NASENI continues to demonstrate its commitment to leveraging technology and innovation to improve lives and drive sustainable development across the country.

Photos: Participants at the She-Powers Energy Initiative training organised by the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI) held at the the Technology Incubation Centre, Farm Centre, Kano yesterday.


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