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Nigeria Week Ahead: Foreign Exchange Reserves, Fed and BoE in Focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst

Nigeria will unveil updates on its latest foreign exchange reserve figures in the week ahead, amid renewed optimism over the progress of US-China trade talks. Investors will be keeping a close eye to see whether the nations foreign exchange reserves have increased in April given how WTI oil prices peaked above $66.00 last week before tumbling lower. Sentiment towards the Nigerian economy is likely to receive a boost should if reserves meet or exceed the $47 billion expectations.

Asian currencies gaining against softer Dollar following US Q1 GDP report

Over in the FX markets, Asian currencies are generally pointing higher in Monday trade, after the US Dollar softened following the release of its Q1 GDP report. The economic print surpassed expectations, with 3.2% annualized growth for the first quarter of 2019, but the impressive headline reading failed to assuage the demands of Dollar buyers, as US consumer spending slowed for a third straight quarter, indicating that underlying domestic demand is waning. More US personal income and spending data will be released later today, which should help investors gain further insights into the primary driver of the US economy, and more softness in consumer expenditure will be seen as a risk for further weakness in the Dollar in the near-term.

Will the Dollar Index resume its climb this week?

A slowdown in US consumer spending might be used as a reason for the Federal Reserve to delay further interest rate increases during its policy meeting scheduled for this week, even as Fed Funds Futures continue to point to more than a 50% chance of a US interest rate cut by October. In the immediate term however, investors could use Monday’s release of more inflation numbers to test the central bank’s data-dependent stance.

The Dollar Index might have slipped lower from its 2019 high last week, but it could still find reason to climb back above the 98 handle, should April’s US non-farm payrolls report due on Friday beat the 185,000 jobs that markets are expecting to be added. Continued job creation in the United States should help allay concerns over the momentum of consumer spending in the world’s largest economy.

Gold steady above $1,284 as global investors await key economic data

Concerns over the broader global economic slowdown will be allayed, should Europe’s Q1 GDP and China’s PMI both show signs of stabilizing when the respective datasets are announced on Tuesday. However, any fresh reminders of soft patches in the global economy following the disappointing data out of both Germany and South Korea last week should encourage some risk to be taken off the table, which should help the appeal of Gold in the near-term.

However, my view is that it might require a string of dismal economic indicators to bring Gold back above the psychological $1,300 mark and reverse the bearish trend seen in Bullion since late-March.

Oil falls away from 2019 high after Trump pressures OPEC to lower prices

Brent futures have dropped below the $72 mark, after tumbling late last week on the back of US President Donald Trump’s claim that he personally “spoke to” OPEC to lower Oil prices. The steep decline in prices comes just days after the US administration stated that sanction waivers on Iran’s Oil will end later this week, which initially sparked a rally in the value of Oil on the hopes of tighter supplies.

However, uncertainty may prevail over how strictly these waivers will be imposed on Iran and whether other producers, like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will be able to fill the void of a reported 1 million barrels of Oil per day by the time the waivers expire.  With the broader narrative of resilient demand and tighter supply in the market encouraging investors to buy Oil, prices can still find the impetus to resume the uptrend seen so far in 2019


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E-Financial

CBN Wins Central Bank of the Year Title @13th Global Awards

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been named Central Bank of the Year 2026 by an awards committee in London.

 CBN Wins Central Bank of the Year Title @13th Global Awards

The award recognises the bank’s major reforms that helped stabilise Nigeria’s economy and improve investor confidence.

The award is part of the 13th annual Central Banking Awards. It highlights how the CBN helped turn around Nigeria’s economy, which was close to crisis in 2023.

At that time, Nigeria faced serious problems such as high inflation, a weak currency, low foreign reserves, and about $7 billion in unpaid foreign exchange obligations.

There was also a big gap between official and black-market exchange rates.

After Olayemi Cardoso was appointed governor in October 2023 by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the CBN introduced strong reforms. These reforms focused on proper monetary policies, transparency, and market-based systems.

One major change was in the foreign exchange system.

The CBN removed multiple exchange rates and introduced a “willing-buyer, willing-seller” system. This made the market more transparent and reduced manipulation.

The bank also cleared old foreign exchange debts owed to sectors like aviation and manufacturing.

This helped restore trust in the economy. By late 2025, the gap between official and black-market exchange rates dropped to less than 2%.

Nigeria’s foreign reserves also improved, rising to $46.7 billion by November 2025  the highest level in almost seven years.

This was due to better foreign exchange inflows, stronger exports, and renewed investor confidence.

The International Monetary Fund praised these reforms, saying they improved the foreign exchange market and made pricing more reliable.

Inflation, which peaked at 34.8% in December 2024, dropped to 15.1% by January 2026. The CBN achieved this by raising interest rates and carefully managing the economy.

The bank also improved its internal operations. It stopped some programmes that were increasing money supply and causing inflation.

It strengthened its systems, improved compliance, and introduced digital tools, including artificial intelligence.

In the banking sector, the CBN introduced new rules requiring banks to increase their capital. This is expected to make the financial system stronger.

Nigeria also improved its fight against financial crimes. In 2025, the country was removed from a global watchlist for money laundering after improving its monitoring systems.

These reforms boosted Nigeria’s global image. Credit rating agencies upgraded the country’s outlook, and investor interest increased. Nigeria’s 2025 Eurobond attracted more than five times the expected subscriptions.

Although progress has been made, the CBN says challenges still remain, such as maintaining low inflation and completing banking reforms.

Overall, the award shows that Nigeria is regaining its position in the global financial system, thanks to strong policies and reforms by the CBN.


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Providus Bank Fully Meets CBN Capital Requirement, Sets Record Straight

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Providus Bank Limited has dispelled media reports over its compliance with regulatory capital requirements, confirming that it has successfully met and exceeded the recapitalisation threshold set by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

In a statement, the bank clarified that under the CBN’s recapitalisation framework, regional commercial banks are mandated to maintain a minimum capital base of N50 billion, stating unequivocally that it achieved this benchmark as far back as January 2025 and has since strengthened its financial standing.

According to the bank, its current paid-up capital stands at N65 billion, significantly above the regulatory minimum, underscoring its resilience and commitment to sound financial management.

The bank noted that this strong capital position places it in good stead to support its growth strategy and continue delivering value to customers and stakeholders.

Providus Bank emphasied that any suggestion implying non-compliance with the CBN’s recapitalisation requirement was inaccurate and does not reflect its current regulatory status.

The bank reiterated its dedication to maintaining robust governance standards and aligning with all prudential guidelines set by the apex regulator.

It explained: Providus Bank Limited notes recent media reports regarding the recapitalisation status of certain banks and considers it important to provide factual clarification as it relates to the Bank. Under the CBN recapitalisation framework, regional commercial banks are required to maintain a minimum capital base of N50 billion.

“Providus Bank confirms that it had met its capital requirement since January 2025 and currently has a capital base of N65 billiom which is in excess of its capital requirement.

Accordingly, any suggestion that Providus Bank has not met the applicable recapitalisation threshold is not consistent with its current regulatory standing.”

The Olayemi Cardoso-led Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had, on March 28, 2024, announced a two-year bank recapitalisation exercise which commenced on April 1, 2024.

The 24-month timeline for compliance ends on March 31, 2026. The upward capital revision is expected to ensure that Nigerian banks have the capacity to take on bigger risks and stay afloat amid both domestic and external shocks.

Specifically, the recapitalisation exercise requires a minimum capital of N500 billion, N200 billion, and N50 billion for commercial banks with international, national, and regional licences, respectively.


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UBA UK, BII Sign Letter of Intent to Slash Africa’s $80Bn Trade Finance Gap

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United Bank for Africa (UK) Limited (“UBA UK”) and British International Investment plc (“BII”), the UK’s development finance institution and impact investor, today announced that they have signed a letter of intent to develop trade finance collaboration opportunities. The proposed initiative aims to expand access to trade and working capital facilities for businesses operating across Africa.

UBA UK, BII Sign Letter of Intent to Slash Africa’s $80bn Trade Finance Gap

L-r: West Africa Director and Head of Office Africa Coverage, BII West Africa, Benson Adenuga; Managing Director and Head of Africa, BII, Chris Chijiutomi; Lok Mishra, Chief Executive Officer, UBA UK, Loknath Mishra; Group Managing Director, United Bank for Africa (Plc) during the signing of letter of intent to develop trade finance collaboration opportunities.

Access to trade finance remains one of the most significant structural constraints on African trade. Businesses – particularly small and medium-sized enterprises – are frequently unable to secure letters of credit, guarantees, and supply chain finance on commercially viable terms, limiting their capacity to export and import competitively. This trade finance gap is estimated by the African Development Bank to be over USD 80 billion annually.

To help close this gap, UBA UK, the London subsidiary of UBA Group, Africa’s Global Bank, will leverage its deep relationships across the Group’s 20-country African network to originate and structure trade finance transactions. While BII, with a mandate to support productive, sustainable, and inclusive growth across Africa, can support transactions that might otherwise fall outside conventional commercial appetite.

Lok Mishra, Chief Executive Officer, UBA UK, said: “The signing of this letter with BII represents a landmark moment for UBA UK and for the UBA Group’s global ambitions. As the Group’s hub for Trade Operations, UBA UK is uniquely positioned to connect African businesses with the international financial system.

“Working alongside BII, we can extend that capability further — mobilising capital where it matters most and helping to close the trade finance gap that holds back so much African potential.”

Chris Chijiuitomi, Managing Director and Head of Africa, said: “British International Investment is committed to catalysing private sector growth across Africa, and trade finance is a critical enabler of that growth.

“We welcome the opportunity to collaborate with UBA Group, whose pan-African network and deep institutional relationships can help advance our ambition to expand access to trade and working capital finance, particularly in frontier markets.”

The announcement builds on growing momentum around intra-African trade facilitated by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which entered into force in 2021 and represents one of the world’s most ignificant trade integration initiatives.

Both institutions have identified the operationalisation of AfCFTA as a priority catalyst for a trade finance facility, with UBA UK’s network across major AfCFTA economies offering a basis for supporting businesses navigating the emerging continental market.

This also complements the UK Government’s broader engagement with African economic development, including commitments made at the UK-Africa Investment Summit, and reinforces the City of London’s role as a leading international finance centre for Africa-focused capital mobilisation.

Future cooperation remains subject to further assessment, due diligence and the completion of internal approvals by both parties.


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