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Nigerian Banks Have Highest Cost Base

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Segun Agbaje, CEO, GTBank
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Nigerian banks have been discovered to have the highest cost base amongst their peers due to increased levy paid to the Assets Management Company of Nigeria (AMCON) as well as the poor state of infrastructure in the country

According to a report by JP Morgan, “Nigerian banks have higher cost/income ratios versus their Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA) bank peers due to lack of necessary infrastructure in form of quality manpower, steady electricity supply, security of physical assets, etc.”

Noting from levies paid by banks to the bad bank that AMCON has risen substantially in recent times, JP Morgan’s analysts in a report on Nigerian banks said, “Higher AMCON levy limits cost/income improvement on our estimates.”

The report noted that contribution to the sinking fund of AMCON has risen to 50 basis points (bps) of total banking assets per annum compared to 30bps previously.

“Following the increase in AMCON levy, we believe AMCON charges will rise 130 per cent year-on-year average 2013 estimate versus 28 per cent year-on-year 2012 audited, adding to the operating expenses growth this year and 11 per cent year-on-year per annum average 2014-16 estimate; between 2013-2016 estimates, we expect AMCON charges to form 11 per cent of Nigerian banks cost base versus five per cent previously.”

Apart from increased operating cost due to contribution into the AMCON sinking fund, JP Morgan analysts say they also expect banks to strive to make up for loss of revenues arising from regulatory pressure on removal of commissions on turnover (COT).

“On average for the banks under our coverage, COT formed 44 per- cent of 2012 actual fee income and 10 per cent of overall revenues; COT will be phased out gradually through 2016 estimates and we believe banks will look to recover this revenue loss via higher focus on fee-yielding transactions and participation in higher-yield financial intermediation.

“However, we estimate average fee incomes as a percentage of total revenues to decline from 24 per cent 2012 actuals to 15 per cent 2016 estimates with a flat year-on-year annual growth in fee income through 16E (following 16 per cent year-on-year 2012 actuals).”

The report which forecast a 25 per cent year-on-year average growth in non-performing loans (NPL) of banks between 2013 and 2016, noted that “recent guidance on NPL development within these banks has remained low; nevertheless for our 2013-2016 estimates forecasts, we have assumed a steady deterioration in the NPL ratio including the 16-17 per cent year-on-year average annual loan growth that we have forecast for these banks for 2013-2016 estimates.

“We see this estimate as conservative but given the lack of a consistent, comparable disclosure from the banks, low economic diversification, tendency to shift lending mix to higher yield categories in 2013-2016 estimates as discussed above. Feedback from channel checks and excesses observed in the past, we prefer to err on the side of conservatism,” the JP Morgan report stated.

Refreshing its ratings and views on shares of four Nigerian banks within its coverage, JP Morgan upgraded Guaranty Trust Bank Plc (GTB) and United Bank for Africa Plc (UBA), from Neutral to Overweight.

FBN holdings and Zenith Bank Plc were on the other hand downgraded. While FBN Holdings was downgraded to Neutral from Underweight, Zenith was downgraded to Overweight from Underweight.

GTB and UBA were named JP Morgan’s “preferred stocks in the Nigerian banks space, each offering an attractive 45 per- cent potential upside to their December 2014 fair values – among the highest within the CEEMEA banks currently.

“While GTB’s valuation (2.0x14E t.book) is at a 33 per- cent premium to the CEEMEA peer average (1.5x 14E), we estimate its offers roughly 60 per cent higher tangible ROE vs. The CEEMEA average (29 per cent 14E in GT – the highest in CEEMEA banks – versus 18 per cent 14E CEEMEA) and nearly double the dividend yield.

“UBA on the other hand offers a 30 per cent higher tangible ROE (of 23 per cent in 14E) on our estimates vs. CEEMEA banks average and a significantly higher dividend yield (10 per cent) for a 33 per cent valuation discount (1.0x14E tangible book) vs. CEEMEA banks.”


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New Horizons Invests N50m to Empower Almajiris with Skills

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New Horizons Nigeria has launched a N50 million initiative aimed at transforming 21 Almajiri children into skilled computer technicians within 90 days, to tackle youth unemployment and harness human potential.

The Almajiri-to-Tech programme, officially launched in Abuja on Monday, provides participants with full training, meals, clothing, tools, and logistics support, all fully funded.

Speaking at the launch, the Chief Executive Officer of New Horizons, Tim Akano, said the programme represents a new journey in the history of Nigeria by restoring the original purpose of the Almajiri system, which he described as “children sent out to seek knowledge.”

“The word Almajiri comes from an Arabic term meaning emigrant and seeker of knowledge. Historically, children were sent to learn morals, responsibility, and skills to add value to society,” Akano said.

He added that the disruption of this system during colonial times forced many children onto the streets, a challenge that persists today.

Akano highlighted the urgency of addressing the Almajiri issue, noting that there are an estimated 15 million Almajiris in the country, with a population growth rate of around three per cent annually.

“If we do not solve this problem as a country, we are sitting on a time bomb,” he warned.

According to him, the programme focuses on hands-on technical skills rather than theory. Trainees will learn to repair mobile phones, laptops, televisions, radios, standing fans, and other electronic devices, as well as build inverter batteries using recycled electronic waste.

“We are not teaching theory. We are teaching practical skills you can use to earn a living,” Akano said, stressing that the programme will not interfere with the participants’ Quranic education.

“We are still going to allow you, within the period of learning. Your learning computer here is not stopping your Quranic education.

“You still have time within our space here. Whenever you want to go and pray, you can pray, then come back to class,” the CEO stressed.

He added that participants will also receive daily meals, water, T-shirts identifying them as technicians-in-training, and access to all necessary tools and equipment throughout the 90-day programme.

Akano said the initiative is part of a larger mission by New Horizons Nigeria, which has spent the past 21 years training about 100,000 Nigerians annually in IT and related skills.

He said the new programme aims to “take human genius off the streets and convert it into human capital, enabling these youths to contribute meaningfully to the economy.”

He added that equipping Almajiris with skills could add 15 million people to Nigeria’s workforce and potentially increase the country’s GDP by as much as $20 billion, stressing that productivity depends on practical skills and opportunity.

“Everything that can be taught can be learned. If someone can memorize the Quran cover to cover, there is nothing that cannot be done. What they lack is information, opportunity, and infrastructure, and we are providing all of that,” Akano said.

Akano also stressed that the initiative is designed to inspire other organizations and government agencies to replicate similar programmes across the country.

“This is not just about 21 children; it is about showing Nigeria what is possible when resources meet intention and planning.

“If we succeed in empowering these Almajiris, we demonstrate that the country can turn social challenges into economic opportunities. It’s a blueprint for Nigeria’s future,” he said, noting that the initiative combines social reform, technical education, and economic empowerment.

Also speaking, one of the trainees, Fatima Umar, appreciated the organisers and promised to maximise the opportunity.

“We’ll make you proud of us. We have nothing to say here but to thank and appreciate you. May Almighty Allah continue to guide and protect you,” Umar said.


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IMF Upgrades Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Projection to 4.4%

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International Monetary Fund has upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 economic growth projection to 4.4 per cent, reflecting improved macroeconomic stability and sustained reforms.

IMF Upgrades Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Projection to 4.4%

IMF

The January 2026 World Economic Outlook Update forecasts Nigeria’s growth trajectory at 4.1 per cent in 2024, 4.2 per cent in 2025, and 4.4 per cent in 2026—a 0.2 percentage point increase from the October 2025 estimate.

This aligns with sub-Saharan Africa’s projected 4.6 per cent expansion in 2026 and 2027, driven by regional stabilisation efforts.

Globally, the IMF anticipates 3.3 per cent growth amid resilient conditions tempered by trade policy shifts and technology investments. For Nigeria, declining energy prices—expected to fall seven per cent due to weak demand—pose risks, though OPEC+ coordination and China’s stockpiling provide support.

Despite the optimism, downside risks persist from Middle East and Ukraine tensions, protectionism, high debt, and fiscal deficits. The Fund recommends rebuilding fiscal buffers, ensuring central bank independence, and limiting temporary fiscal measures to maintain stability.

Nigeria’s success hinges on consistent reforms and resilience against domestic and global shocks, the IMF concluded.


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Nigeria’s Crude Output Falls to 1.486mbpd in November – OPEC

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Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reports that Nigeria’s crude oil production, excluding condensate, dropped by 0.7 per cent to 1.486 million barrels per day (mbpd) in November 2025 from 1.496 mbpd in October.

Nigeria’s Crude Output Falls to 1.486mbpd in November – OPEC

OPEC

The figure, drawn from secondary sources in OPEC’s December 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report, fell short of Nigeria’s 1.5 mbpd quota. Direct communication data showed output at 1.436 mbpd, up from October’s 1.401 mbpd, but still below target.

Nigeria produces around 196,028 bpd of condensate, excluded from quota calculations per Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission figures. Year-on-year, November’s output marked a slight gain over 1.417 mbpd in November 2024.

Expert Cites Insecurity, Governance Gaps

Petroleum economics expert Wumi Iledare described the quota miss as unsurprising, blaming persistent insecurity, an ageing oil basin lacking new finds, and unoffered hydrocarbon blocks. Governance shortcomings and policy uncertainty further erode investor confidence, he noted.

Selective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act worsens the situation, with Nigeria needing a single authoritative leader for the sector rather than multiple proxies, Mr Iledare stressed. The country has struggled to consistently hit OPEC targets for years.


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