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Nigerian Stock Market Steady ahead of Presidential Elections

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By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,

Investor optimism over government spending boosting domestic growth continues to support appetite for risk in Nigeria with the All Share Index steady around 30,748.50 as of writing. A combination of bargain hunting and growth optimism are likely to push domestic stocks higher ahead of the presidential elections next week. Confidence over the health of the nation has the potential to receive another welcome boost if next week’s GDP figures for Q4 meet or exceed market expectations. While the outcome of the presidential elections remains highly uncertain, it will certainly have a lasting impact on the Nigerian economy.

Are equity bulls running out of ammunition?

Away from Nigeria, it is shaping up to be a dull day for financial markets with equities across the world struggling for direction due to a lack of fresh catalysts.

Stocks in Asia witnessed another muted session today as many markets in the region remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. In Europe, shares got out of the wrong side of the bed thanks to weak earnings from French banking group BNP Paribas and disappointing data from Germany. While Wall Street has the potential to extend gains this afternoon on strong corporate earnings and cautious optimism over US-China trade talks, the medium- to longer-term outlook for equity markets tilts to the downside. Concerns over slowing global growth remains a dominant theme while the unpredictable nature of trade negotiations has certainly left investors on edge. With other geopolitical risks such as Brexit, China’s slowdown, Eurozone growth concerns and political turbulence in Washington seen stimulating risk aversion, the ingredients are in place for a stock market sell-off.

Investors who were expecting fireworks and action from US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address were left empty handed after nothing new was brought to the table. While Trump discussed trade relations with China, border security and the budget, this was of no real interest to markets and such was reflected in the muted reaction. With Trump failing to provide fresh insight into the progress over US-China trade talks and the March deadline looming, sensitivity to trade developments is poised to heighten moving forward.

Brexit uncertainty and growing pessimism over Theresa May’s ability to secure further concessions from the EU continues to weigh on the Pound. With the European Union already stating that the Withdrawal Agreement is “not open for re-negotiations” it will be interesting to see what the prime minister achieves from her trip to Brussels. While negativity over Brexit is likely to continue punishing the Pound in the short term, the currency could receive a boost if expectations mount over the government delaying Brexit by extending Article 50. Although the Bank of England policy meeting is on Thursday, we expect the Pound to offer a muted reaction to this risk event as Brexit continues to overshadow economic fundamentals.

In the commodity markets, Gold is trading lower today thanks to an appreciating Dollar. While the precious metal is seen extending losses in the near term, bulls still remain in control in the medium to longer term. For as long as global growth fears weigh on market sentiment and expectations mount over the Fed taking a break on rate hikes this year, Gold will continue shining. Focusing on the technical picture, the precious metal has the potential to rebound towards $1,320 if $1,308 proves to be reliable support. A breakdown below $1,308 is likely to invite a decline back towards the psychological $1,300 level.

 


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E-Financial

SEC Partners Police in Nationwide Crackdown on Ponzi Schemes, Crypto Frauds

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigeria Police Force have forged an alliance against illegal scheme operators, investment frauds, and cryptocurrency frauds in a bid to protect the hard-earned savings and the financial dreams of the Nigerian people.

SEC Partners Police in Nationwide Crackdown on Ponzi Schemes, Crypto Frauds

Dr Emomotimi Agama, director-general of the SEC, stated this during a meeting with Kayode Egbetokun, Inspector General of Police, held in Abuja.

Agama said the SEC, as the sentinel at the gate of Nigeria’s formal capital markets, had the mandate to protect investors, maintain fair, efficient, and transparent markets, and promote the growth of a vibrant economy built on trust, which is done by setting rules, licensing operators and market surveillance.

He, however, stated that the Commission faced adversaries who operate in the shadows, outside regulated gates by exploiting the trust of people and promising miraculous returns such as 200 per cent in 30 days.

“Currently, there is a gap, a seam between identification and enforcement that these scammers exploit. Today, we aim to close that gap permanently. Therefore, we propose a robust, institutionalised collaboration with the following pillars: Joint Intelligence and Operations Task Force: Capacity Building and Knowledge Transfer; Streamlined Processes for Enforcement and National Public Awareness Campaign,” he stated.

The SEC DG advocated, “the establishment of a dedicated SEC-NPF team that combines market intelligence, forensic accounting, and understanding of complex financial schemes with investigative and intelligence-gathering capabilities. This team will be the rapid-response unit to new frauds.”

Agama also sought the permission of the IGP to go into a Memorandum of Understanding with the Cyber Security Unit of the Police Force in a bid to ensure that cyberspace is safe for all Nigerians

In his response, the IGP Kayode Egbetokun assured the SEC team that the Nigerian police Force is ready to collaborate with the Commission, strengthen partnership in all the ways possible, and ensure that the Commission achieves its aims.

He said, “Your role in the Securities and Exchange Commission is very crucial to the Nigerian Economy, and with our supervision and support from the government, we will ensure economic recovery and growth. If the police unit in SEC is strengthened, it is going to make such an impact on your enforcement drive. What you said speaks so much to your determination to ensure effective drive in the Capital market, and when we can achieve effective enforcement, it comes with so many benefits.

Egbetokun also congratulated the Commission on the recent achievement of the N100 trillion market capitalisation mark, adding that it will aid economic growth and development.


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E-Financial

Paystack Expands Beyond Payments into Banking

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Nigerian fintech giant, Paystack has taken its boldest step yet beyond payments, acquiring Ladder Microfinance Bank. The fintech giant has quickly rebranded its new acquisition as Paystack Microfinance Bank (MFB) in a strategic shift that could reshape how African businesses access credit, deposits, and embedded financial services.

After nearly a decade building the backbone of online payments in Nigeria, the deal gives Paystack regulatory cover to hold deposits, lend directly to businesses and offer banking-as-a-service products.

More importantly, Paystack’s chief operating officer, Amandine Lobelle, highlighted that it allows the company to exert greater control over the trillions of naira that already flow through its platform every month, turning transaction data into a powerful engine for credit and treasury products.

“After 10 years of building payment infrastructure and going deep, we realised that businesses needed more than just getting paid to grow. We wanted to leverage the expertise that we have built over the last decade to continue to address some of the pain points that businesses have,” said Lobelle.

Paystack MFB will operate as a sister company to its payments business, initially focusing on working capital loans, merchant cash advances, overdrafts and term loans for small and medium-sized enterprises.

By using real-time payment data to underwrite loans, Paystack believes it can offer faster approvals and more accurate risk pricing than traditional lenders, directly tackling Nigeria’s estimated $32 billion small business financing gap.

For Paystack, founded in 2016 and acquired by Stripe in 2020, the move marks a strategic evolution from being just a payments processor to becoming a core part of the financial operating system for African businesses.

Today, Paystack supports more than 300,000 businesses across Nigeria, Ghana, and South Africa and has become one of Africa’s most trusted fintech infrastructure providers.

The banking licence is a game-changer as payments, once Paystack’s main growth engine, are increasingly commoditised across Africa. Lending, deposits and treasury services offer deeper margins, stickier relationships and long-term sustainability.

By layering banking services on top of payments, Paystack is betting that infrastructure depth will outperform flashy consumer scale.

However, the move also throws the Nigerian-born fintech giant into fierce competition with digital -first lenders and neobanks such as Moniepoint, Kuda, OPay and PalmPay, which already operate at massive scale. Still, Paystack’s strength lies in its merchant-first focus and developer-friendly APIs.

 


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FG Halts Tax Guidelines Amid Uncertainty Over Final Laws – Oyedele

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Federal Government has suspended the issuance of implementation guidelines for the new tax laws due to lingering doubts about their final version, Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Tax Reform Committee, disclosed on Wednesday.

Speaking in Lagos after delivering a keynote address on the 2026 Economic Outlook, organised by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN) under the theme ‘ICAN@60: Accountability as the Bedrock for National Development,’ Oyedele said he directed the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) and Joint Revenue Board (JRB) to hold off on guidelines.

He explained that his team purchased a printed copy from the government printer to verify authenticity, only to learn the National Assembly had seized all copies pending completion of its review. “The Acts Authentication Act says whatever the government printer publishes is the evidence of the law. But lawmakers said it’s not what they passed,” Oyedele stated.

Efforts by Nigeria CommunicationsWeek to reach Senate spokesman, Senator Yemi Adaramodu (APC, Ekiti South), and House of Representatives spokesman, Akin Rotimi, yielded no response, as calls went unanswered and messages unread.

Oyedele acknowledged legislative review as standard but stressed the access restriction reintroduces uncertainty. He instructed his staff to persistently follow up in person at the printer.

Oyedele dismissed allegations of significant alterations to the gazetted versions of the National Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, Joint Revenue Board of Nigeria (Establishment) Act, Nigeria Tax Administration Act, and Nigeria Tax Act, which took effect January 1.

He insisted minor discrepancies do not impact key elements like tax rates, burdens, or filing deadlines. In December, Rep. Abdussamad Dasuki (PDP, Sokoto) raised a privilege matter at the House plenary, highlighting differences between passed versions and gazetted copies after comparing them with Votes and Proceedings.

The House formed a seven-man probe committee, which reported by December 25. On January 3, the National Assembly released Certified True Copies (CTCs) affirming the original passed texts and rejecting the controversial gazettes.

Oyedele decried opposition to reforms, including paid protests and misinformation. “We’ve seen people paid N30 million to protest; the deal broke during sharing, and some spoke to media,” he revealed.

He cited a November 2025 incident where fake news triggered panic sales, wiping N4.6 trillion off the stock market despite exemptions for turnover up to N150 million annually. “That fake news led to real losses, even for pensioners via PFAs,” he warned.

Linking to the event theme, Oyedele called accountability the bridge from reforms to results, urging trust-building, knowledge-seeking, and execution focus.

Panelists advocated coordinated efforts. LCCI Director-General Dr. Chinyere Almona called for inter-agency engagement, technology, and centralised monitoring to resolve policy conflicts.

MAN Director-General Segun Ajayi-Kadir sought inclusive growth without hurting competitiveness, noting manufacturing’s sub-10% GDP share, sector challenges, and N2 trillion in unsold inventory.

Session chair Mohammed Hayatudeen described 2026 as a pivotal year post-2023/2024 turbulence, with stabilised inflation, exchange rates, and reserves, but persistent high poverty. He questioned if tax policy ambition matches administrative capacity.

ICAN President Mallam Haruna Nma Yahaya welcomed guests, emphasising accountability for economic stability amid fragile recovery. He highlighted 2025 gains: GDP growth over 4% in Q2, inflation easing to mid-14s, forex reserves at multi-year highs, trade surpluses, and PMI at 57.6.

Yet, he cautioned fragility without discipline. “Accountability is an economic imperative,” Yahaya said, citing global evidence on strong institutions, and urged practical solutions for governance.


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