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Nigerian Stock Market Steady ahead of Presidential Elections

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By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,

Investor optimism over government spending boosting domestic growth continues to support appetite for risk in Nigeria with the All Share Index steady around 30,748.50 as of writing. A combination of bargain hunting and growth optimism are likely to push domestic stocks higher ahead of the presidential elections next week. Confidence over the health of the nation has the potential to receive another welcome boost if next week’s GDP figures for Q4 meet or exceed market expectations. While the outcome of the presidential elections remains highly uncertain, it will certainly have a lasting impact on the Nigerian economy.

Are equity bulls running out of ammunition?

Away from Nigeria, it is shaping up to be a dull day for financial markets with equities across the world struggling for direction due to a lack of fresh catalysts.

Stocks in Asia witnessed another muted session today as many markets in the region remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. In Europe, shares got out of the wrong side of the bed thanks to weak earnings from French banking group BNP Paribas and disappointing data from Germany. While Wall Street has the potential to extend gains this afternoon on strong corporate earnings and cautious optimism over US-China trade talks, the medium- to longer-term outlook for equity markets tilts to the downside. Concerns over slowing global growth remains a dominant theme while the unpredictable nature of trade negotiations has certainly left investors on edge. With other geopolitical risks such as Brexit, China’s slowdown, Eurozone growth concerns and political turbulence in Washington seen stimulating risk aversion, the ingredients are in place for a stock market sell-off.

Investors who were expecting fireworks and action from US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address were left empty handed after nothing new was brought to the table. While Trump discussed trade relations with China, border security and the budget, this was of no real interest to markets and such was reflected in the muted reaction. With Trump failing to provide fresh insight into the progress over US-China trade talks and the March deadline looming, sensitivity to trade developments is poised to heighten moving forward.

Brexit uncertainty and growing pessimism over Theresa May’s ability to secure further concessions from the EU continues to weigh on the Pound. With the European Union already stating that the Withdrawal Agreement is “not open for re-negotiations” it will be interesting to see what the prime minister achieves from her trip to Brussels. While negativity over Brexit is likely to continue punishing the Pound in the short term, the currency could receive a boost if expectations mount over the government delaying Brexit by extending Article 50. Although the Bank of England policy meeting is on Thursday, we expect the Pound to offer a muted reaction to this risk event as Brexit continues to overshadow economic fundamentals.

In the commodity markets, Gold is trading lower today thanks to an appreciating Dollar. While the precious metal is seen extending losses in the near term, bulls still remain in control in the medium to longer term. For as long as global growth fears weigh on market sentiment and expectations mount over the Fed taking a break on rate hikes this year, Gold will continue shining. Focusing on the technical picture, the precious metal has the potential to rebound towards $1,320 if $1,308 proves to be reliable support. A breakdown below $1,308 is likely to invite a decline back towards the psychological $1,300 level.

 


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E-Financial

BVN Enrollment Up 6.87 Percent to 67.84m in 2025 – NIBSS

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Bank Verification Number (BVN) enrollments in the country rose by 6.87 per cent , or 4.36 million, to 67.84 million as at the end of December 2025 from 63.48 million in the corresponding period of the preceding year, according to latest data released by the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS).

BVN Enrollment Up 6.87 Percent to 67.84m in 2025 - NIBSS

This means that a total number of 4.36 million BVN enrolments were recorded between the end of December 2024 and the end of last year.

The BVN scheme was launched on February 14, 2014 by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in collaboration with the Bankers’ Committee, NIBSS and the German firm, Dermalog, with the aim of capturing biometrics of all bank customers and giving each bank customer a unique 11-digit identity number (BVN) that can be verified across the Nigerian banking industry.

Lamido Sanusi, governor of the CBN, at the time, said at the event that the BVN scheme would enable the apex bank to significantly reduce incidents of fraud and money laundering in the banking industry and also help accelerate financial inclusion by opening up opportunities for credit to millions of Nigerians who do not have a standard means of identification.

In October 2017, the CBN released a regulatory framework for BVN operations and Watchlist for the financial system. It stated that the Watchlist comprises a database of bank customers identified by their BVNs, who have been involved in confirmed fraudulent activities in the Nigerian banking industry.

An analysis of the latest NIBSS data shows that BVN enrollment maintained an upward trend in the last five years, rising from 51.90 million in 2021 to 56.90 million and 60.12 million in 2022 and 2023 respectively, before hitting 63.48 million in 2024 and 67.84 in 2025.

Analysts attribute the rise in BVN enrolments in recent years to policy measures introduced by the CBN as part of its efforts to tackle fraud.

For instance, on December 1, 2023, the apex bank issued a circular directing Deposit money banks (DMBs) Non-interest banks, Payment Service Banks, other financial institutions and mobile operators, to ensure that all funded bank accounts or wallets, without BVN or National Identification Number (NIN) are placed on “Post No Debit or Credit,” by April 1, 2024.


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Fidelity Bank Completes N500Bn Capital Raise ahead of Deadline

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Fidelity Bank Plc said it has raised the required minimum share capital for lenders with international authorisation, boosting its capital base as Nigerian lenders race to comply with tougher regulatory requirements scheduled to end by March 2026.

Fidelity Bank Completes N500Bn Capital Raise ahead of Deadline

Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, GMD, Fidelity Bank

The push-up in its eligible capital, raised through a private placement, effectively placed Fidelity Bank among lenders that have successfully scaled through the regulatory mandate.

The Lagos-based bank, in a disclosure on the Nigerian Exchange on Tuesday, said the offer, which opened and closed on December 31, 2025, was approved by the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Proceeds from the transaction lift Fidelity’s eligible capital to about N564.5 billion from N305.5 billion, subject to final regulatory approvals.

The private placement was carried out under a mandate granted by shareholders at an extraordinary general meeting on February 6, 2025, authorising the bank to issue up to 20 billion ordinary shares.

Fidelity did not disclose the pricing or investor mix for the transaction.

The fundraising caps an aggressive capital-raising drive by Fidelity over the past two years. In 2024, the lender raised N175.85 billion through a public offer and rights issue, which brought its eligible capital to N305.5 billion. That left a shortfall of about N194.5 billion relative to the new minimum capital threshold.

Nigeria’s central bank in 2024 announced a sweeping recapitalisation programme aimed at strengthening the banking system, raising the minimum capital for commercial banks with international authorisation to N500 billion.

The apex bank mandated an increment in capital for national banks, pushing it to N200 billion and N50 billion for regional banks. The 24‑month compliance window ends on March 31, 2026, a regulation that’s triggering a wave of equity issuances, merger talks, and balance-sheet restructuring across the sector.

Fidelity’s latest capital raise places it above the regulatory floor, potentially easing pressure on the bank as peers continue to tap markets. The additional capital is also expected to support balance-sheet expansion, larger ticket lending, and resilience against macroeconomic shocks in Africa’s fourth-largest economy, which has been grappling with currency volatility, double-digit inflation, and elevated interest rates.

Analysts stated the scale and speed of this transaction validate Fidelity Bank’s standing among tier‑one lenders. Recently, Fitch Ratings affirmed the bank’s Long‑Term Issuer Default Rating at ‘B’ and upgraded its National Long‑Term Rating to ‘A+(nga)’, citing stronger capital buffers and improved profitability.

Fitch also recognised the bank’s expanding franchise, sound fundamentals, and healthy foreign‑currency liquidity, noting it was Nigeria’s sixth‑largest lender by assets at the end of 2024.


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E-Financial

Kuda Microfinance Bank Releases ‘My Year on Kuda’ 2025 Financial Recap

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Kuda Microfinance Bank has unveiled the 2025 edition of “My Year on Kuda,” its annual recap providing customers with personalised insights into their spending, saving, and money management habits from the previous year.

Kuda Microfinance Bank Releases 'My Year on Kuda' 2025 Financial Recap

Kuda Microfinance Bank

The tool analyses transaction data across categories like transfers, card payments, online purchases, and bills, revealing patterns such as highest-spending months, biggest payments, saving frequency, and savings from Kuda’s 25 free monthly transfers. Customers can compare 2025 activity against 2024, including income versus expenditure.

In an era of inflation and economic uncertainty, the recap promotes financial literacy by highlighting responsible borrowing via Kuda Overdraft usage, including access frequency, amounts borrowed, and repayment patterns.

Customer-shared screenshots on X reflect national trends: Nigeria recorded over 2.2 billion electronic transactions worth ₦285 trillion in Q1 2025, up 20 percent year-on-year, with POS terminals driving the shift to cashless commerce.

Kuda Group CEO Babs Ogundeyi, in the recap’s opening video, urged users: “Before you carry on with January, this is the perfect time to see everything you did with your money on Kuda last year and learn something.”

The feature underscores Kuda’s focus on actionable insights to help Nigerians navigate evolving personal finance amid shifting earning and spending behaviours.


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