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Nigeria’s GDP Growth Slows in Q2, Dollar Slips

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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

Confidence over the health of the largest economy in Africa was dealt a blow after economic growth decelerated in the second quarter of 2018.

Nigeria’s GDP disappointed in Q2 by slowing to 1.5% from the 1.95% achieved in the first quarter of 2018. Although growth during the second quarter was mainly driven by the services sector and higher than when compared to Q2 of 2017, this did little to shake off jitters over the growth outlook. With uncertainty likely to heighten ahead of Nigeria’s presidential elections, and US-China trade tensions still impacting global sentiment, Nigeria remains exposed to downside risks.

If inflation starts to rebound amid election spending, the Central Bank of Nigeria could be forced to maintain status quo on interest rates for the rest of this quarter.

Market sentiment boosted by Nafta breakthrough

A renewed sense of positivity and optimism continues to be felt across financial markets after the United States and Mexico reached a breakthrough deal over the NAFTA trade agreement.

This highly encouraging development may ease trade war fears, elevate global sentiment and stimulate appetite for riskier assets. Although it remains uncertain whether Canada will join the agreement, there is an expectation that the nation agrees to the new terms in an effort to conserve the three-nation pact.

Speaking of risk, Asian stocks closed mostly positive this morning while European markets edged higher as optimism over a trade deal between the US and Mexico boosted investor confidence. With Wall Street powering to record highs yesterday, US equity bulls could make another appearance this afternoon amid the risk-on sentiment.

Is the party coming to an end for Dollar bulls?

Dollar bulls were missing in action yet again today as investors digested Jerome Powell’s dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium last Friday.

The Greenback’s continued depreciation in recent weeks has raised questions on whether the impressive bull run could be coming to an end. Buying sentiment towards the Dollar was dealt the first blow following Donald Trump’s latest criticism of the Federal Reserve. Bears were offered another opportunity to attack after the minutes from August’s Fed policy meeting raised concerns over escalating trade tensions negatively impacting growth. With reports of the United States and Mexico securing a trade deal dimming the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, further losses could be witnessed in the near term. Although market expectations remain elevated over the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next month and possibly December, the Dollar may need fresh inspiration to rebound higher.

As regards the technical picture on the daily charts, the Dollar Index has been relentlessly pounded by sellers in recent weeks with prices trading around 96.65 as of writing. A solid breakdown below the 96.50 level could encourage a decline towards 94.20 and 94.00, respectively.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold prices edged to a fresh two week high on Tuesday thanks mostly to a depreciating US Dollar.

The fact that the yellow metal continues to appreciate despite global risk sentiment boosted by the US-Mexico trade breakthrough just further highlights how Gold remains heavily influenced by the Dollar. With the Greenback likely to experience further weakness following Powell’s dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Gold has scope to appreciate further.

Technical traders will continue to closely observe how prices behave above the $1200 psychological level. Repeated Dollar weakness could send prices towards $1216 and $1230, respectively. For bears to jump back into the game, prices need to break back below the $1200 level.


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E-Financial

Naira Stability, Lower Borrowing Costs Expected in 2026 — CBN Survey

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The naira is projected to remain largely stable in the coming months, while borrowing costs are expected to ease as inflation moderates, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest Business Expectations Survey (BES).

Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest Business Expectations Survey (BES

CBN

The survey, which polled about 1,900 businesses nationwide, revealed that confidence in the local currency has strengthened. Respondents expect the naira to rise from an index of 28.8 points to 42.2 points by May 2026, extending the rare period of stability recorded throughout 2025.

Borrowing rates are also forecast to decline, with the index dropping from 15.4 points to 11.7 points, reflecting expectations of softer monetary conditions as inflationary pressures ease.

“Respondents expect the naira–US dollar exchange rate to steadily appreciate across the review periods, as indicated by the positive indices. They also anticipate a continuous positive outlook for borrowing rates during the same periods,” the BES report stated.

The naira has enjoyed an unusually long stretch of stability after losing about 41% of its value in 2024 following the unification of exchange rates. Analysts attribute the current calm to the CBN’s calibrated interventions and steady inflows from foreign portfolio investors.

Inflation, which stood at 14.45% in November 2025, is projected to fall to single-digit levels in 2026. This outlook could give monetary authorities room to begin a gradual easing cycle, potentially improving credit access for businesses.

Despite the improving macroeconomic environment, businesses continue to grapple with structural constraints. The survey highlighted insecurity (70.1 points), high/multiple taxation (69.7 points), and insufficient power supply (69.3 points) as the most pressing challenges. Other concerns include poor infrastructure and an unfavorable political climate, both scoring 57.7 points.

While optimism surrounds the naira and borrowing costs, the BES underscores the need for sustained reforms to tackle deep-rooted operational challenges. Analysts say that without addressing insecurity, taxation burdens, and infrastructure gaps, Nigeria’s businesses may struggle to fully benefit from the improving macroeconomic outlook.


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Sterling Bank, Water.org, Sterling One Foundation Partner on WASH Loan for Millions

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Sterling Bank, in partnership with nonprofit Water.org and Sterling One Foundation, has launched the Sterling WASH Business Loan to empower WASH businesses and scale sustainable access to safe water and sanitation for millions of Nigerians.

Sterling Bank, Water.org, Sterling One Foundation Partner on WASH Loan for Millions

L-R: Gilbert Okpono, Snr. Partnership Account Manager, Water.org; Engr. Mukhtaar Temitope Tijani, Managing Director, Lagos State Water Corporation; Mrs. Olapeju Ibekwe, CEO, Sterling One Foundation; Akporee Idenedo, Divisional Head Commercial Banking, Sterling Bank, at the Sterling Bank Water Credit Proposition held in Lagos recently.

The catalytic financing solution addresses daily struggles with clean water and safe sanitation, which impact health, livelihoods, and well-being, while strengthening delivery systems for WASH solutions.

Launched on Monday, November 24, 2025, at The Wheatbaker Hotel, Ikoyi, Lagos, the initiative signals a shared commitment to tackling one of Nigeria’s most pressing development challenges.

Abubakar Suleiman, Managing Director of Sterling Bank, said sustainable development hinges on collaboration and targeted investment in frontline businesses and people.

“By providing accessible financing to entrepreneurs in this critical social sector, we ensure progress reaches communities that need it most. This product aligns with our HEART strategy and commitment to improving quality of life through impact-driven initiatives,” Suleiman stated.

Gilbert Okpono, Nigeria Senior Partnership Account Manager at Water.org, stressed the transformative power of financing WASH businesses.

“Financial inclusion is critical to solving the global water and sanitation crisis. By expanding access to affordable financing, we enable households and WASH entrepreneurs to improve services, reach more communities, and transform lives,” Okpono said.

He added that the partnership reflects a belief in rippling benefits across health, education, and economic opportunity, marking a major step toward sustainable scaling.

The loan supports WASH entrepreneurs, small business owners, and community service providers with flexible financing to expand operations, boost health, livelihoods, and educational outcomes.

Olapeju Ibekwe, CEO of Sterling One Foundation, linked the initiative to the foundation’s mission of catalysing lasting social impact across Africa.

“Our Foundation catalyses initiatives that deliver real, lasting change. Access to safe water and sanitation is one of the most powerful investments in community well-being. We are proud to partner with Water.org and Sterling Bank for inclusive, scalable, and sustainable solutions,” Ibekwe affirmed.

The launch event gathered development partners, WASH entrepreneurs, media, policymakers, and community organisations to discuss coordinated financing, supportive policies, and market-driven solutions to close Nigeria’s WASH access gap.

Interested beneficiaries can visit the initiative’s website for more details.


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Access Holdings Shareholders Approved to Raise N40bn Capital Through Private Placement

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Access Holdings Plc has received the approval of its shareholders to raise additional capital of up to N40 billion or such other amount or their equivalent in foreign currencies, via private placement.

The shareholders gave the approval as part of the special resolutions at Access Holdings Plc Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) held on Thursday December 18.

In a notice to the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), Access Holdings said the new ordinary shares created in connection with the private placement, will be allotted at a price of N20.25 to one or more investors in such tranches and on such terms and conditions as shall be determined by the Board.

Access Holdings Plc Board of Directors is authorised to consider, negotiate, approve, and finalise the list of potential private placement investors; determine the structure, valuation, modalities, and timeline for the private placement.

The Board was also authorised to consider, negotiate, approve and finalise the list of potential private placement investors; determine the structure, valuation, modalities and timeline for the private placement.

The shareholders also approved for the issued share capital of Access Holdings Plc to be increased from N26 658 billion to N27.646 billion by the creation and addition of 1,975,308,641 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each ranking pari-passu with the existing ordinary shares of the Company.


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