General News
Dangote, Monopoly Power, and Political Economy of Failure
By Blaise Udunze
Nigeria’s refining crisis is one of the country’s most enduring economic contradictions. Africa’s largest crude oil producer, strategically located on the Atlantic coast and home to over 200 million people, has for decades depended on imported refined petroleum products. This illogicality has drained foreign exchange, weakened the naira, distorted investment incentives, and hollowed out state institutions. Instead of catalysing industrialisation, Nigeria’s oil wealth became a mechanism for capital flight, rent-seeking, and institutional decay.
Dangote
With the challenges surrounding the refining of crude oil, the establishment of Dangote Refinery signifies an important historic moment. The refinery promises to reduce fuel imports to a bare minimum, sustain foreign exchange growth, ensure there is constant fuel domestically, and strategically position Nigeria as a regional exporter of refined oil products if functioned at full capacity. Dangote Refinery symbolises what private capital, technology, and ambition can achieve in Africa following years of fuel queues, subsidy scandals, and global embarrassment.
Nigerians must have a rethink in the cause of celebration. Nigeria’s refining problem is not simply about capacity; it is about systems. Without addressing the policy failures and institutional weaknesses that made Dangote an exception rather than the rule, the country risks replacing one failure with another, this time cloaked in private-sector success.
For a fact, Nigeria desperately needs the emergence of Dangote refinery, and its success is in the national interest. Hence, this is not an argument against the Dangote Refinery. But history warns that structural failures are not solved by scale alone. Over the year, situations have shown that without competition and strong institutions, concentrated market power, whether public or private, can undermine price stability, energy security, and consumer welfare.
The Long Silence of Refinery Investments
Perhaps the most troubling question in Nigeria’s oil history is why none of the global oil majors like Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, or Agip has built a major refinery in Nigeria for over four decades. These companies operated profitably in Nigeria, extracted their crude, and sold refined products back to the country, yet never committed capital to domestic refining.
Over the period, it has been shown that policy incoherence has been the cause, not a matter of technical incapacity, such as price controls, resistant licensing processes, subsidy arrears, frequent regulatory changes, and political interference, which made refining an unattractive investment. Importation, by contrast, offered quick returns, lower political risk, and guaranteed margins, often backed by government subsidies.
Nigeria carelessly designed a system that rather rewarded importers and punished refiners. Dangote did not succeed because the system improved; he succeeded despite it. His refinery exists largely because of the concessions from the government, exceptional financial capacity, political access, and a willingness to absorb risks that institutions should ordinarily mitigate. This raises a deeper concern; when institutions fail, progress becomes dependent on extraordinary individuals rather than predictable systems.
The Tragedy of NNPC Refineries
If private investors stayed away, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries should have filled the gap. Instead, the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries became monuments to mismanagement. Records have shown that between 2010 and 2025, Nigeria reportedly wasted between $18 billion and $25 billion, over N11 trillion, just for Turn Around Maintenance and rehabilitation. Kaduna Refinery alone is estimated to have consumed over N2.2 trillion in a decade.
Despite these expenditures, output remained negligible. This was not merely a technical failure but a governance one. Contracts were poorly monitored, accountability was absent, and consequences were nonexistent. In functional systems, such outcomes trigger investigations, sanctions, and reforms. In Nigeria, the cycle simply repeated itself, eroding public trust and deepening dependence on imports.
Where Is BUA?
Dangote is not the only Nigerian conglomerate to announce refinery ambitions. In 2020, BUA Group unveiled plans for a 200,000-barrels-per-day refinery. Years later, progress remains unclear, timelines have shifted, and execution appears stalled.
This pattern is revealing. When multiple large investors struggle to translate plans into reality, the issue is not ambition but environment. Refinery projects in Nigeria appear viable only at a massive scale and with extraordinary political leverage. Smaller or mid-sized players are effectively crowded out, not by market forces, but by systemic dysfunction.
Policy Failure and the Singapore Comparison
Nigeria often aspires to emulate Singapore’s refining and petrochemical success. The comparison is instructive. Singapore has no crude oil, yet built one of the world’s most sophisticated refining hubs through consistent policy, investor protection, infrastructure planning, and regulatory certainty.
Nigeria chose a different path: price controls, subsidies, weak contract enforcement, and politically motivated policy reversals. Refineries became tools of patronage rather than productivity. Capital exited, infrastructure decayed, and import dependence deepened. The outcome was predictable.
The Cost of Import Dependence
For years, Nigeria spent billions of dollars annually importing petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel. This placed constant pressure on foreign reserves and the naira. Petrol subsidies alone were estimated at N4-N6 trillion per year, often exceeding national spending on health, education, or infrastructure.
Even after subsidy removal, legacy costs remain: distorted consumption patterns, weakened public finances, and entrenched interests built around importation. These interests did not disappear quietly.
Who Really Benefited from the Subsidy?
Although framed as pro-poor, fuel subsidies disproportionately benefited importers, traders, shipping firms, depot owners, financiers, and politically connected intermediaries. Smuggling across borders meant Nigerians subsidised fuel consumption in neighbouring countries.
Ordinary citizens received marginal relief at the pump but paid far more through inflation, deteriorating infrastructure, and underfunded public services. The subsidy system functioned less as social protection and more as elite redistribution.
The Traders’ Dilemma
Why did major fuel marketers like Oando invest in refineries abroad but not in Nigeria? Again, incentives explain behaviour. Importation offered faster returns, lower capital requirements, and political insulation. Domestic refining demanded long-term investment under unstable rules.
In an irrational system, rational actors optimise accordingly. Importation thrived not because it was efficient, but because policy made it so.
FDI and the Confidence Problem
Sustainable Foreign Direct Investment follows domestic confidence. When local investors, who best understand political and regulatory risks, avoid long-term industrial projects, foreign investors take note. Capital flows to environments with predictable pricing, rule of law, and policy consistency.
Nigeria’s challenge is not attracting speculative capital, but building conditions for patient, productive investment.
Dangote and the Monopoly Question
Dangote Refinery deserves credit. But scale brings power, and power demands oversight. If importers exit and no competing refineries emerge, Dangote could dominate refining, pricing, and supply. Nigeria’s experience with cement, where domestic production rose but prices soared due to limited competition, offers a cautionary tale.
Markets function best with competition. Without it, price manipulation, supply risks, and weakened energy security become real dangers, especially in countries with fragile regulatory institutions.
The Way Forward: Competition, Not Replacement
Nigeria does not need to weaken Dangote; it needs to multiply Dangotes. The goal should be a competitive refining ecosystem, not a replacement of a public monopoly with a private monopoly.
This requires transparent crude allocation, open access to pipelines and storage, fair pricing mechanisms, and strong antitrust enforcement. State refineries must either be professionally concessional or decisively restructured. Stalled projects like BUA’s should be unblocked, and modular refineries should be supported.
The Litmus Test
Nigeria’s refining crisis was decades in the making and cannot be solved by one refinery, however large. Dangote Refinery is a turning point, but only if embedded within systemic reform. Otherwise, Nigeria risks trading one form of dependency for another.
The true test is not whether Nigeria can refine fuel, but whether it can build fair, open, and resilient institutions that serve the public interest. In refining, as in democracy, excessive concentration of power is dangerous. Competition remains the strongest safeguard.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
Federal High Court in Abuja has adjourned the Federal Government’s alleged tax evasion case against Binance Holdings Ltd. cryptocurrency exchange, until September 24, 2026, to allow both parties more time to pursue an out-of-court settlement.
Justice Emeka Nwite fixed the new date on Thursday after Moses Ideho, counsel to the Federal Government, informed the court that discussions aimed at resolving the dispute amicably were still ongoing.
Ideho, a deputy director of Legal and Prosecution at the Nigeria Revenue Service (formerly the Federal Inland Revenue Service), told the court that the matter, which had been scheduled for a report on settlement or continuation of trial, could not proceed.
According to him, one reason for the delay was the reported elevation of Justice Nwite to the Court of Appeal, while the second was the continued reconciliation efforts between the parties.
“The parties are still exploring settlement in the charge that led to this case,” Ideho told the court.
Sunday Agaji, counsel to Binance, did not oppose the application for adjournment, following which Justice Nwite postponed proceedings until September 24 for either a report on the settlement discussions or continuation of trial.
The case was previously adjourned on May 12 after both the Federal Government and Binance informed the court that negotiations were underway to settle the matter outside the courtroom.
Binance had first indicated its willingness to pursue an amicable resolution on March 24.
The cryptocurrency company was re-arraigned on July 12, 2024, on a four-count charge bordering on alleged tax evasion.
Ayodele Omotilewa, Nigerian representative, pleaded not guilty on behalf of the company.
The re-arraignment followed the removal of Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan and his colleague, Nadeem Anjarwalla, from the charge after the Federal Government amended the case to make Binance Holdings Ltd the sole defendant.
Justice Nwite had, on June 14, 2024, discharged and struck out the names of Gambaryan and Anjarwalla after the prosecution filed the amended charge.
Binance is also facing a separate criminal prosecution by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), which accuses the company of laundering about $35.4m.
In addition, the Nigeria Revenue Service is pursuing a separate civil suit against Binance before another judge of the Federal High Court, seeking approximately $79.5bn in alleged economic losses linked to the company’s operations in Nigeria.
Oodua Youth Coalition (OYC), a Yoruba socio-cultural group, has issued a notice to stage peaceful picketing at MTN Nigeria offices nationwide.
This action stems from the company’s alleged failure to publicly condemn recent xenophobic attacks against Nigerians in South Africa.
This is coming despite statement by Karl Toriola, chief executive officer, MTN Nigeria, who recently said that MTN may have originated from South Africa, he explained, but MTN Nigeria is a Nigerian publicly quoted company, managed by Nigerians and with a Nigerian board.
However, in a statement jointly signed Olatunji Adejuwon and Olaoye Abolaji,vice president and national secretary respectively of OYC, described MTN Nigeria’s silence as unacceptable, given the company’s South African roots and the patronage it enjoys from Nigerians
The coalition said it would proceed with a peaceful protest if the telecommunications company continued to ignore its demands, stressing that the action was intended to draw attention to the need for corporate responsibility and moral leadership in condemning xenophobic attacks against fellow Africans.
“Consequently, the Oodua Youth Coalition hereby gives notice that we shall, without hesitation, commence a peaceful picketing of MTN Nigeria’s offices if the company continues to ignore our legitimate demands.
“Our action is intended to draw attention to the need for corporate responsibility and moral leadership in condemning acts of xenophobia against fellow Africans,” the statement said.
The group renewed its call on MTN Nigeria to immediately convene a press conference, with representatives of the coalition in attendance, to unequivocally condemn the xenophobic attacks and reaffirm its commitment to the safety, dignity and unity of all Africans.
It maintained that the proposed protest would be peaceful, orderly and in accordance with the laws of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
According to the coalition, relevant security agencies have been notified of the planned action, while appropriate communications have also been sent to the South African diplomatic mission in Nigeria.
“We once again call on MTN Nigeria to immediately convene a press conference, with representatives of the Oodua Youth Coalition in attendance, to unequivocally condemn the xenophobic attacks and reaffirm its commitment to the safety, dignity and unity of all Africans.
“We emphasise that our proposed action shall remain peaceful, orderly and in accordance with the laws of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Relevant security agencies have been duly notified, and appropriate communications have also been sent to the South African diplomatic mission in Nigeria.”
Reaffirming its commitment to defending the rights and dignity of Nigerians, the coalition vowed not to relent until its concerns received the desired attention.
“The Oodua Youth Coalition remains committed to defending the dignity of Nigerians and promoting African solidarity. We will not relent until our concerns receive the attention they deserve,” the statement added.
Responding to the controversy, Toriola further condemned all forms of xenophobia and violence against Africans living in South Africa, insisting that MTN Nigeria is a Nigerian company with substantial local ownership.
“We unequivocally condemn any form of xenophobia, violence or attacks against any community in the world. We’re a Nigerian company, through and through. We’re listed on the stock exchange with over 201,000 retail investors, and 11 million people hold shares through their pension funds in MTN Nigeria.
“We provide the digital backbone of the economy, and we have a completely Nigerian entity.
“Yes, MTN was founded in South Africa, and the parent company that is the majority shareholder is South African. But let’s also look at it objectively. The shareholding of MTN Holding South Africa is only 50 per cent African.
“The remaining 50 per cent is from across the world — 27 per cent from the United States, with the rest from the United Kingdom, Europe, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region,” Toriola said.
By Bidemi Oke
Every civilisation has been built on one invisible infrastructure. The Romans built roads. The Industrial Revolution built electricity. The Internet built information. The next economy may be built on something far less tangible.
Trust
That sounds counterintuitive because we have spent centuries believing that money is the foundation of every economy. It isn’t. Money has never been the foundation; it has simply been the mechanism through which trust is exchanged. Every major financial innovation, from coins and paper notes to credit cards, online banking and blockchain, has been humanity’s attempt to solve the same problem: “how do we help strangers trust one another without ever meeting?”
Seen through that lens, today’s financial revolution looks very different.
Most discussions about digital finance revolve around whether cash will disappear. We debate mobile wallets, central bank digital currencies, cryptocurrency, real-time payments and digital banking. Yet these conversations often mistake the visible change for the actual transformation.
The real shift is not that money is becoming digital. The real shift is that trust is becoming programmable. That single idea explains why the financial landscape is changing faster than many people realize.
For decades, finance has depended on institutions to create confidence. Banks verified identities, governments authenticated currencies, contracts relied on lawyers, payment networks validated transactions and every exchange involved an intermediary whose primary role was to reassure two parties that the system could be trusted.
Technology is quietly rewriting that arrangement
Today, identities can be verified digitally. Transactions can be authenticated within seconds, smart contracts can execute agreements automatically once predefined conditions are met, and artificial intelligence can detect suspicious activity before humans notice it. Increasingly, confidence is being built into the infrastructure itself rather than added afterwards.
This is why I believe we need a new way to think about the evolution of finance, not as a journey from cash to digital payments, but as “three generations of financial trust”.
The first generation was Physical Trust. Trust was tied to tangible assets like gold, paper currency, handwritten signatures and face-to-face interactions. Confidence came from what people could physically see and hold.
The second generation was Institutional Trust. As economies expanded, institutions became the guarantors of financial confidence. Banks, regulators, payment networks and financial intermediaries enabled transactions at a scale impossible through personal relationships alone. Trust shifted from physical objects to established organisations.
We are now entering the third generation: Programmable Trust.
Here, trust is embedded directly into technology. Verification happens automatically. Payments settle in real time, financial services become integrated into everyday experiences instead of existing as separate destinations. Increasingly, people interact with trusted systems rather than trusted institutions alone. That distinction is more profound than it first appears.
Many organisations still measure digital transformation by counting how many services have moved online, but digitising an existing process is not the same as redesigning how trust flows through an economy. Converting paperwork into an application does not automatically create a digital financial ecosystem.
This explains why some economies process millions of digital transactions every day yet continue to face friction, inefficiency and limited financial inclusion. The missing ingredient is rarely another payment platform. More often, it is interoperable infrastructure, trusted digital identity, consistent regulation and systems capable of working together seamlessly.
In other words, the future of finance will not be determined by who builds the fastest application. It will be determined by who builds the most trusted ecosystem.
This has significant implications for Africa. The continent has rightly earned global recognition for accelerating digital financial adoption. Yet the next opportunity extends beyond increasing transaction volumes. The greater challenge is designing financial infrastructure where payments, identity, data, compliance and commerce interact intelligently rather than operating in isolation.
That is where long-term competitive advantage will emerge. Perhaps the greatest irony of all is that the more advanced finance becomes, the less visible it will appear.
People rarely think about the internet protocols that power a video call or the cloud infrastructure supporting an online purchase. Likewise, future generations may hardly think about payment rails, settlement networks or blockchain architecture. Financial experiences will simply happen securely, instantly and almost invisibly.
History suggests that successful technologies eventually disappear from our attention not because they become less important, but because they become so reliable that we stop noticing them altogether.
So, are we entering a fully digital financial economy? Perhaps that is no longer the right question.
A more useful question is whether we are entering an economy where trust itself becomes digital infrastructure because if that is true, then the organisations shaping the future of finance are not merely moving money more efficiently.
They are redesigning how entire economies create confidence at scale and that may prove to be the most valuable innovation of all.
Bidemi Oke is the Chief Executive Officer of FlashChange, a fintech platform focused on secure digital asset exchange. He is an entrepreneur and vibrant leader, recognized for driving innovation and redefining access in the financial technology industry.
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