General News
Dangote, Monopoly Power, and Political Economy of Failure

By Blaise Udunze
Nigeria’s refining crisis is one of the country’s most enduring economic contradictions. Africa’s largest crude oil producer, strategically located on the Atlantic coast and home to over 200 million people, has for decades depended on imported refined petroleum products. This illogicality has drained foreign exchange, weakened the naira, distorted investment incentives, and hollowed out state institutions. Instead of catalysing industrialisation, Nigeria’s oil wealth became a mechanism for capital flight, rent-seeking, and institutional decay.

Dangote
With the challenges surrounding the refining of crude oil, the establishment of Dangote Refinery signifies an important historic moment. The refinery promises to reduce fuel imports to a bare minimum, sustain foreign exchange growth, ensure there is constant fuel domestically, and strategically position Nigeria as a regional exporter of refined oil products if functioned at full capacity. Dangote Refinery symbolises what private capital, technology, and ambition can achieve in Africa following years of fuel queues, subsidy scandals, and global embarrassment.
Nigerians must have a rethink in the cause of celebration. Nigeria’s refining problem is not simply about capacity; it is about systems. Without addressing the policy failures and institutional weaknesses that made Dangote an exception rather than the rule, the country risks replacing one failure with another, this time cloaked in private-sector success.
For a fact, Nigeria desperately needs the emergence of Dangote refinery, and its success is in the national interest. Hence, this is not an argument against the Dangote Refinery. But history warns that structural failures are not solved by scale alone. Over the year, situations have shown that without competition and strong institutions, concentrated market power, whether public or private, can undermine price stability, energy security, and consumer welfare.
The Long Silence of Refinery Investments
Perhaps the most troubling question in Nigeria’s oil history is why none of the global oil majors like Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, or Agip has built a major refinery in Nigeria for over four decades. These companies operated profitably in Nigeria, extracted their crude, and sold refined products back to the country, yet never committed capital to domestic refining.
Over the period, it has been shown that policy incoherence has been the cause, not a matter of technical incapacity, such as price controls, resistant licensing processes, subsidy arrears, frequent regulatory changes, and political interference, which made refining an unattractive investment. Importation, by contrast, offered quick returns, lower political risk, and guaranteed margins, often backed by government subsidies.
Nigeria carelessly designed a system that rather rewarded importers and punished refiners. Dangote did not succeed because the system improved; he succeeded despite it. His refinery exists largely because of the concessions from the government, exceptional financial capacity, political access, and a willingness to absorb risks that institutions should ordinarily mitigate. This raises a deeper concern; when institutions fail, progress becomes dependent on extraordinary individuals rather than predictable systems.
The Tragedy of NNPC Refineries
If private investors stayed away, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries should have filled the gap. Instead, the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries became monuments to mismanagement. Records have shown that between 2010 and 2025, Nigeria reportedly wasted between $18 billion and $25 billion, over N11 trillion, just for Turn Around Maintenance and rehabilitation. Kaduna Refinery alone is estimated to have consumed over N2.2 trillion in a decade.
Despite these expenditures, output remained negligible. This was not merely a technical failure but a governance one. Contracts were poorly monitored, accountability was absent, and consequences were nonexistent. In functional systems, such outcomes trigger investigations, sanctions, and reforms. In Nigeria, the cycle simply repeated itself, eroding public trust and deepening dependence on imports.
Where Is BUA?
Dangote is not the only Nigerian conglomerate to announce refinery ambitions. In 2020, BUA Group unveiled plans for a 200,000-barrels-per-day refinery. Years later, progress remains unclear, timelines have shifted, and execution appears stalled.
This pattern is revealing. When multiple large investors struggle to translate plans into reality, the issue is not ambition but environment. Refinery projects in Nigeria appear viable only at a massive scale and with extraordinary political leverage. Smaller or mid-sized players are effectively crowded out, not by market forces, but by systemic dysfunction.
Policy Failure and the Singapore Comparison
Nigeria often aspires to emulate Singapore’s refining and petrochemical success. The comparison is instructive. Singapore has no crude oil, yet built one of the world’s most sophisticated refining hubs through consistent policy, investor protection, infrastructure planning, and regulatory certainty.
Nigeria chose a different path: price controls, subsidies, weak contract enforcement, and politically motivated policy reversals. Refineries became tools of patronage rather than productivity. Capital exited, infrastructure decayed, and import dependence deepened. The outcome was predictable.
The Cost of Import Dependence
For years, Nigeria spent billions of dollars annually importing petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel. This placed constant pressure on foreign reserves and the naira. Petrol subsidies alone were estimated at N4-N6 trillion per year, often exceeding national spending on health, education, or infrastructure.
Even after subsidy removal, legacy costs remain: distorted consumption patterns, weakened public finances, and entrenched interests built around importation. These interests did not disappear quietly.
Who Really Benefited from the Subsidy?
Although framed as pro-poor, fuel subsidies disproportionately benefited importers, traders, shipping firms, depot owners, financiers, and politically connected intermediaries. Smuggling across borders meant Nigerians subsidised fuel consumption in neighbouring countries.
Ordinary citizens received marginal relief at the pump but paid far more through inflation, deteriorating infrastructure, and underfunded public services. The subsidy system functioned less as social protection and more as elite redistribution.
The Traders’ Dilemma
Why did major fuel marketers like Oando invest in refineries abroad but not in Nigeria? Again, incentives explain behaviour. Importation offered faster returns, lower capital requirements, and political insulation. Domestic refining demanded long-term investment under unstable rules.
In an irrational system, rational actors optimise accordingly. Importation thrived not because it was efficient, but because policy made it so.
FDI and the Confidence Problem
Sustainable Foreign Direct Investment follows domestic confidence. When local investors, who best understand political and regulatory risks, avoid long-term industrial projects, foreign investors take note. Capital flows to environments with predictable pricing, rule of law, and policy consistency.
Nigeria’s challenge is not attracting speculative capital, but building conditions for patient, productive investment.
Dangote and the Monopoly Question
Dangote Refinery deserves credit. But scale brings power, and power demands oversight. If importers exit and no competing refineries emerge, Dangote could dominate refining, pricing, and supply. Nigeria’s experience with cement, where domestic production rose but prices soared due to limited competition, offers a cautionary tale.
Markets function best with competition. Without it, price manipulation, supply risks, and weakened energy security become real dangers, especially in countries with fragile regulatory institutions.
The Way Forward: Competition, Not Replacement
Nigeria does not need to weaken Dangote; it needs to multiply Dangotes. The goal should be a competitive refining ecosystem, not a replacement of a public monopoly with a private monopoly.
This requires transparent crude allocation, open access to pipelines and storage, fair pricing mechanisms, and strong antitrust enforcement. State refineries must either be professionally concessional or decisively restructured. Stalled projects like BUA’s should be unblocked, and modular refineries should be supported.
The Litmus Test
Nigeria’s refining crisis was decades in the making and cannot be solved by one refinery, however large. Dangote Refinery is a turning point, but only if embedded within systemic reform. Otherwise, Nigeria risks trading one form of dependency for another.
The true test is not whether Nigeria can refine fuel, but whether it can build fair, open, and resilient institutions that serve the public interest. In refining, as in democracy, excessive concentration of power is dangerous. Competition remains the strongest safeguard.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
General News
EFCC to Use Space Technology to Boost Asset Tracking, Investigations

Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has partnered with the National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA) to deploy advanced space and geospatial technologies in investigations and asset management.

Ola Olukoyede, executive chairman of the EFCC,
The move is expected to deepen transparency, strengthen asset recovery and curb economic sabotage according to a statement by Dele Oyewale, head, Media and Publicity, EFCC.
He said that the partnership was formalised through the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Thursday in Abuja
The agreement is aimed at strengthening inter-agency collaboration, particularly in the areas of investigations, asset tracking and fraud risk assessment, marking a new phase of cooperation between the anti-graft agency and Nigeria’s space research and regulatory authority.
Speaking at the signing ceremony, Ola Olukoyede, executive chairman of the EFCC, described the agreement as a practical demonstration of the power of collaboration among government agencies.
He noted that closer cooperation would make it easier for institutions to effectively deliver on their statutory mandates.
According to Olukoyede, the MoU clearly defines the responsibilities of both agencies and establishes a framework for sustained cooperation.
He disclosed that a special monitoring and implementation team would be constituted to ensure the effective operationalisation of the agreement and to periodically review its impact.
“We will put a team together that will monitor the operationalisation of this MoU and also review the effectiveness of the platform from time to time.
“When agencies work together in the spirit of collaboration, it not only enhances efficiency but also encourages other ministries, departments and agencies to explore similar partnerships in the overall interest of national development”, he said.
Explaining the specifics of the partnership, the EFCC chairman said NASRDA would provide advanced technological tools to boost the Commission’s investigative capacity and asset tracking, while the EFCC would deploy its expertise to support the agency in fraud risk assessment.
“We will support you in the area of fraud risk assessment, and you will support us in promoting our investigative capacity.
“Where our eyes cannot get to, with the aid of your technology, we will be able to get there”, Olukoyede said.
He noted that the collaboration would be particularly beneficial to investigations into illegal mining activities, which have been linked to economic sabotage and rising insecurity in parts of the country.
“With the technology you are going to support us with, we will be able to identify some of these areas,” he added.
Olukoyede further expressed optimism that the partnership would significantly enhance the EFCC’s asset management processes, stressing that asset recovery remains one of the core pillars of the Commission’s mandate.
He explained that recovered assets are scattered across the country and exist under different legal statuses, including interim and final forfeiture.
“In some of these places, we may not have enough personnel to physically secure the assets. But with your support, we will be able to deploy geospatial technology and asset tagging devices to monitor both movable and immovable assets in a transparent and accountable manner”, he said
In his remarks, Matthew Adepoju, director-general and chief executive officer of NASRDA, welcomed the partnership, describing the MoU as a major milestone in the pursuit of justice and regulatory compliance within Nigeria’s space ecosystem.
Adepoju stressed that space-related activities are strictly regulated in developed economies and should be treated with similar seriousness in Nigeria, particularly in view of the potential misuse of satellite assets.
“You cannot go anywhere in Europe, continental America or the Far East and be doing business in the space ecosystem without the country ensuring that you are doing the right thing.
“We know for a fact that some satellite assets are being used negatively in driving insecurity in the country”, he said.
He also raised concerns over the use of satellite-mapped data on Nigeria’s natural resources to aid illegal activities, especially illegal mining, which he identified as one of the drivers of insecurity.
General News
DalaHill, BoA Partner on $100,000 ACF Climate Finance Initiative

DalaHill Law Practice and the Bank of Agriculture (BoA) have signed a Mutual Accountability Framework (MAF), marking a milestone in the launch of a climate finance initiative funded by the African Climate Foundation (ACF) and valued at US$100,000.

According to a statement by the firm, the signing took place during a kickoff ceremony at the BoA headquarters in Abuja and formalised the roles, responsibilities and shared commitments of both institutions in delivering the project. The framework was signed by Ayo Sotinrin, BoA Managing Director, and Mohammed Hamza, Managing Associate at DalaHill.
The ACF-funded initiative is designed to support BoA’s institutional transition towards climate-aligned agricultural finance. Central to the programme is the establishment of a Clean Energy Delivery and Innovation Unit (CEDIU), a dedicated function that will integrate climate risk considerations, environmental data and sustainability principles into the bank’s strategy, operations and investment decision-making.
Under the initiative, BoA will also be supported to develop Clean Energy Access Systems and Climate Finance Development Frameworks, alongside a pipeline of bankable, climate-aligned agricultural projects.
These projects are expected to attract domestic and international capital into the sector, contributing to efforts to bridge Nigeria’s estimated $247.3 billion financing gap for its green energy transition.
Speaking on behalf of DalaHill, Mohammed Hamza described the initiative as a pivotal intervention in Nigeria’s agricultural and climate finance landscape. He said the firm is acting as a trusted adviser, working with institutions to deliver catalytic and transformative solutions.
According to him, DalaHill is deploying a multidisciplinary technical team to support BoA’s transition into a climate-aligned institution capable of attracting finance for scalable, investment-ready agricultural projects.
He highlighted the strategic importance of the project, noting that while ACF has traditionally focused on renewable energy, climate alignment within the agricultural sector is critical to driving Nigeria’s broader energy transition. He added that the initiative represents ACF’s first climate finance grant promoting agriculture in Nigeria.
In his remarks, Sotinrin expressed appreciation to the project partners and acknowledged longstanding gaps within Nigeria’s agricultural finance ecosystem. He reaffirmed BoA’s commitment to driving systemic change by attracting climate-aligned expertise, strategic funding and increased national and international attention to the sector.
Sotinrin also noted that the initiative aligns with the Federal Government’s climate and sustainability agenda, referencing Nigeria’s participation at an ongoing global climate sustainability conference in Abu Dhabi.
He further highlighted strong government backing for BoA’s transformation, including presidential approval in October 2024 of a US$1 billion recapitalisation plan aimed at strengthening the bank’s capacity to support national development.
DalaHill Law Practice is a full-service commercial law firm headquartered in Abuja, with a strong track record in advising on economically catalytic projects across sectors including energy, infrastructure, finance, trade and emerging markets.
The firm is known for structuring complex transactions, managing regulatory risk and supporting projects that promote sustainable growth and long-term economic impact in Nigeria and beyond.
General News
How to Stay Safe Online During Sales Periods

Kaspersky’s new global research reveals that 65% of online shoppers believe they can detect fraud on their own, while only 42% actually use security software to protect their payments and block malicious links.

Experts consider this a major risk for online buyers. Over the past year Kaspersky identified nearly 6.7 million phishing attacks globally impersonating online stores, payment systems, and banks, with 55.6% targeting online shoppers.
As the post-holiday and summer sales season kicks off, Kaspersky conducted a survey to examine consumer cybersecurity practices employed during online shopping. The findings show that 97% of respondents demonstrate a substantial level of awareness of online security risks and implement at least some measures to safeguard their digital transactions.
However, the survey found that fewer than half the participants use dedicated security software to block phishing attempts and protect payment transactions. This concerning trend is particularly pronounced among the 55+ year old generation, with only 32% of respondents in this age group actually using security software when making online purchases.
The most commonly adopted security protocols include being vigilant about potential warning signs, such as suspicious hyperlinks or unusual website design (65%) and verifying seller authenticity (62%).
Kaspersky experts emphasise that while these practices are essential protective measures for online shopping, they constitute only foundational protection strategies rather than the comprehensive fraud prevention provided by a security solution.
Other steps that could protect online shoppers, like using a separate credit card for digital purchases or using a separate email address to register with unfamiliar online shops, were chosen by 33% and 26% of survey participants, respectively.
Meanwhile, 30% claimed to consult with friends and relatives before making a purchase. Interestingly, this option is highly popular among the younger generation, with 37% opting for it, while it is less common among older people (21%).
“Throughout the year, we’ve observed that online shoppers have consistently been one of the most desirable targets for scammers. During sales periods, their scams can become even more pervasive. Staying vigilant is crucial, but protecting yourself requires more than just awareness.
It is particularly concerning how scammers are now using AI to craft more sophisticated, targeted phishing attempts that are increasingly difficult for regular users to recognise,” comments Olga Altukhova, Senior Web Content Analyst at Kaspersky.
Sales seasons are peak times for scammers. To protect yourself against emerging threats, implement the following security practices:
– Don’t save your full credit card details on websites unless absolutely necessary.
– Consider using a separate debit card specifically for online purchases and set up transaction alerts on your bank and credit card accounts.
– Be extra cautious of “flash sales” that seem too good to be true. Watch out for websites that pressure you into making quick decisions, and be wary of sellers who refuse returns or exchanges.
– Use different passwords for each online account and enable two-factor authentication wherever possible.
– Apply a security solution with a strong anti-phishing component. For instance, Kaspersky Premium received the annual ‘Approved’ certification from the leading testing lab AV-Comparatives in 2025 for detecting 93% of phishing URLs, demonstrating outstanding anti-phishing capabilities, powered by AI technology.
– Scammers constantly evolve their methods, so staying informed about new phishing techniques can help you recognise and avoid them. The Kaspersky Security blog will help you keep your finger on the pulse of emerging cyberthreats.
The study was conducted by Kaspersky’s market research center in November 2025. A total of 3000 respondents from 15 countries (Argentina, Chile, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Malaysia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates) took part in the survey.
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