General News
Dangote, Monopoly Power, and Political Economy of Failure
By Blaise Udunze
Nigeria’s refining crisis is one of the country’s most enduring economic contradictions. Africa’s largest crude oil producer, strategically located on the Atlantic coast and home to over 200 million people, has for decades depended on imported refined petroleum products. This illogicality has drained foreign exchange, weakened the naira, distorted investment incentives, and hollowed out state institutions. Instead of catalysing industrialisation, Nigeria’s oil wealth became a mechanism for capital flight, rent-seeking, and institutional decay.
Dangote
With the challenges surrounding the refining of crude oil, the establishment of Dangote Refinery signifies an important historic moment. The refinery promises to reduce fuel imports to a bare minimum, sustain foreign exchange growth, ensure there is constant fuel domestically, and strategically position Nigeria as a regional exporter of refined oil products if functioned at full capacity. Dangote Refinery symbolises what private capital, technology, and ambition can achieve in Africa following years of fuel queues, subsidy scandals, and global embarrassment.
Nigerians must have a rethink in the cause of celebration. Nigeria’s refining problem is not simply about capacity; it is about systems. Without addressing the policy failures and institutional weaknesses that made Dangote an exception rather than the rule, the country risks replacing one failure with another, this time cloaked in private-sector success.
For a fact, Nigeria desperately needs the emergence of Dangote refinery, and its success is in the national interest. Hence, this is not an argument against the Dangote Refinery. But history warns that structural failures are not solved by scale alone. Over the year, situations have shown that without competition and strong institutions, concentrated market power, whether public or private, can undermine price stability, energy security, and consumer welfare.
The Long Silence of Refinery Investments
Perhaps the most troubling question in Nigeria’s oil history is why none of the global oil majors like Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, or Agip has built a major refinery in Nigeria for over four decades. These companies operated profitably in Nigeria, extracted their crude, and sold refined products back to the country, yet never committed capital to domestic refining.
Over the period, it has been shown that policy incoherence has been the cause, not a matter of technical incapacity, such as price controls, resistant licensing processes, subsidy arrears, frequent regulatory changes, and political interference, which made refining an unattractive investment. Importation, by contrast, offered quick returns, lower political risk, and guaranteed margins, often backed by government subsidies.
Nigeria carelessly designed a system that rather rewarded importers and punished refiners. Dangote did not succeed because the system improved; he succeeded despite it. His refinery exists largely because of the concessions from the government, exceptional financial capacity, political access, and a willingness to absorb risks that institutions should ordinarily mitigate. This raises a deeper concern; when institutions fail, progress becomes dependent on extraordinary individuals rather than predictable systems.
The Tragedy of NNPC Refineries
If private investors stayed away, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries should have filled the gap. Instead, the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries became monuments to mismanagement. Records have shown that between 2010 and 2025, Nigeria reportedly wasted between $18 billion and $25 billion, over N11 trillion, just for Turn Around Maintenance and rehabilitation. Kaduna Refinery alone is estimated to have consumed over N2.2 trillion in a decade.
Despite these expenditures, output remained negligible. This was not merely a technical failure but a governance one. Contracts were poorly monitored, accountability was absent, and consequences were nonexistent. In functional systems, such outcomes trigger investigations, sanctions, and reforms. In Nigeria, the cycle simply repeated itself, eroding public trust and deepening dependence on imports.
Where Is BUA?
Dangote is not the only Nigerian conglomerate to announce refinery ambitions. In 2020, BUA Group unveiled plans for a 200,000-barrels-per-day refinery. Years later, progress remains unclear, timelines have shifted, and execution appears stalled.
This pattern is revealing. When multiple large investors struggle to translate plans into reality, the issue is not ambition but environment. Refinery projects in Nigeria appear viable only at a massive scale and with extraordinary political leverage. Smaller or mid-sized players are effectively crowded out, not by market forces, but by systemic dysfunction.
Policy Failure and the Singapore Comparison
Nigeria often aspires to emulate Singapore’s refining and petrochemical success. The comparison is instructive. Singapore has no crude oil, yet built one of the world’s most sophisticated refining hubs through consistent policy, investor protection, infrastructure planning, and regulatory certainty.
Nigeria chose a different path: price controls, subsidies, weak contract enforcement, and politically motivated policy reversals. Refineries became tools of patronage rather than productivity. Capital exited, infrastructure decayed, and import dependence deepened. The outcome was predictable.
The Cost of Import Dependence
For years, Nigeria spent billions of dollars annually importing petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel. This placed constant pressure on foreign reserves and the naira. Petrol subsidies alone were estimated at N4-N6 trillion per year, often exceeding national spending on health, education, or infrastructure.
Even after subsidy removal, legacy costs remain: distorted consumption patterns, weakened public finances, and entrenched interests built around importation. These interests did not disappear quietly.
Who Really Benefited from the Subsidy?
Although framed as pro-poor, fuel subsidies disproportionately benefited importers, traders, shipping firms, depot owners, financiers, and politically connected intermediaries. Smuggling across borders meant Nigerians subsidised fuel consumption in neighbouring countries.
Ordinary citizens received marginal relief at the pump but paid far more through inflation, deteriorating infrastructure, and underfunded public services. The subsidy system functioned less as social protection and more as elite redistribution.
The Traders’ Dilemma
Why did major fuel marketers like Oando invest in refineries abroad but not in Nigeria? Again, incentives explain behaviour. Importation offered faster returns, lower capital requirements, and political insulation. Domestic refining demanded long-term investment under unstable rules.
In an irrational system, rational actors optimise accordingly. Importation thrived not because it was efficient, but because policy made it so.
FDI and the Confidence Problem
Sustainable Foreign Direct Investment follows domestic confidence. When local investors, who best understand political and regulatory risks, avoid long-term industrial projects, foreign investors take note. Capital flows to environments with predictable pricing, rule of law, and policy consistency.
Nigeria’s challenge is not attracting speculative capital, but building conditions for patient, productive investment.
Dangote and the Monopoly Question
Dangote Refinery deserves credit. But scale brings power, and power demands oversight. If importers exit and no competing refineries emerge, Dangote could dominate refining, pricing, and supply. Nigeria’s experience with cement, where domestic production rose but prices soared due to limited competition, offers a cautionary tale.
Markets function best with competition. Without it, price manipulation, supply risks, and weakened energy security become real dangers, especially in countries with fragile regulatory institutions.
The Way Forward: Competition, Not Replacement
Nigeria does not need to weaken Dangote; it needs to multiply Dangotes. The goal should be a competitive refining ecosystem, not a replacement of a public monopoly with a private monopoly.
This requires transparent crude allocation, open access to pipelines and storage, fair pricing mechanisms, and strong antitrust enforcement. State refineries must either be professionally concessional or decisively restructured. Stalled projects like BUA’s should be unblocked, and modular refineries should be supported.
The Litmus Test
Nigeria’s refining crisis was decades in the making and cannot be solved by one refinery, however large. Dangote Refinery is a turning point, but only if embedded within systemic reform. Otherwise, Nigeria risks trading one form of dependency for another.
The true test is not whether Nigeria can refine fuel, but whether it can build fair, open, and resilient institutions that serve the public interest. In refining, as in democracy, excessive concentration of power is dangerous. Competition remains the strongest safeguard.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
General News
NIS Deploys Advanced Surveillance Masts, other Critical Infrastructure to Boost Border Security
Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) has said that under the first phase of its e-border solution, surveillance masts equipped with 24-hour thermal and optical monitoring capabilities have been deployed across several border locations, providing surveillance coverage of 10 to 15 kilometres during the day and up to 5 kilometres at night.
The service also assured that it will continue to modernise border security management through the deployment of advanced technology and critical infrastructure.
DCI Akinsola Akinlabi, spokesman for the NIS, who made this known during a news briefing by Spokespersons for security, defence and law enforcement agencies in Abuja, said that the phase two of the e-border solution is expected to expand coverage to additional land border points.
Akinlabi said the Service has also established an Integrated Operating Centre (IOC) to serve as a central hub for real-time intelligence gathering, surveillance, and data harmonisation relating to foreign nationals.
He said the NIS recorded significant operational successes in strengthening border security, combating transnational crime, and enhancing migration management between January and May 2026.
“During the reporting period, the Service intensified enforcement operations against irregular migration and related transnational crimes, resulting in the repatriation of 567 foreign nationals for violations of Nigeria’s immigration laws and regulations.
“In addition, six foreign natio nals were deported, comprising four individuals arrested for their involvement in a visa racketeering syndicate and two others who were deported after completing prison sentences for criminal offences.
“The Service also strengthened efforts to curb identity fraud and abuse of national documentation. Enforcement operations led to the recovery of 47 National Identification Number (NIN) cards from irregular migrants, while 21 stowaways were apprehended at various seaports as they attempted to illegally enter or exit the country through unauthorised means.”
Akinlabi said aside enforcement activities, the Service continued to invest in preventive and community-based initiatives aimed at addressing the root causes of irregular migration and cross-border crime.
“In March 2026, the Seme Border Command conducted sensitisation programmes for drivers’ associations, commercial motorcyclists, and community stakeholders to promote safe, orderly, and regular migration practices.
“Similarly, the Idi-Iroko Border Command carried out public awareness campaigns across markets, motor parks, and schools to educate border communities on the dangers and security implications of trans-border crimes.”
Mr. Emmanuel Ovaga, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of PufferPay Limited will deliver the keynote paper at the 3rd Business Journal Fintech & Financial Inclusion Roundtable 2026 scheduled for Friday, July 31, 2026 at Oriental Hotel, Lekki Road, Victoria Island, Lagos.
The theme of the Roundtable is: Fintech: Driving the Future of Digital Financial Ecosystem in Nigeria. Mr. Emmanuel Ovaga is a graduate of Computer Engineering from the Enugu State University of Science and Technology, Enugu State.
He is a technology entrepreneur and business leader with a strong track record in building and scaling innovative digital and enterprise solutions across Africa.
As the CEO of PufferPay, he drives the company’s vision to deliver seamless, secure and inclusive payment solutions tailored for emerging markets.
He is also the Chief Executive Officer of Pufferfish Technology Limited, a Pan-African IT and consulting firm specialising in software development, data analytics and systems integration for both public and private sector clients.
Under his leadership, the company has established strategic partnerships with globally recognised technology providers, including industry leaders in enterprise computing and analytics.
Pufferfish Technologies Limited has in a few years of its existence, birthed PufferPay, a fintech payment business created to enhance financial inclusion and payments facilitation in Africa.
PufferPay is created with best-in-class technology for transaction speed and security that guarantees top-range service delivery to its growing customers.
Reacting to the development, the Publisher/Editor-in-Chief of Business Journal Media Group, Prince Cookey said:
“Mr. Emmanuel Ovaga represents the next generation of tech leaders in the fintech space in Nigeria and Africa. His laudable accomplishments as the CEO of PufferPay Limited deserve accolades. He has positioned PufferPay as a leading player in the digital financial ecosystem in Nigeria and emerging corporate tentacles across the continent. Accordingly, stakeholders attending the 3rd Business Journal Fintech & Financial Inclusion Roundtable 2026 would be looking forward to a robust conversation on the State of the Fintech market today and tomorrow.”
The Special Guests of Honour include Dr. Aminu Maida, Executive Vice-Chairman/CEO, Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and Mr. Olusegun Omosehin, Commissioner for Insurance/CEO, National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) while Alhaji (Dr.) Umaru Kwairanga, Group Chairman, Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) will Chair the event.
The Guest of Honour is Mrs. Ekeoma Ezeibe, President/Chairman of Council, NCRIB.
Distinguished members of the Panel include:
- Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE)
- Mrs. Idu Okeahialam, Group Managing Director/CEO, Royal Exchange Plc
- Mr. Jide Orimolade, Managing Director/CEO, Stanbic IBTC Insurance Limited
- Dr. Obioha Oti, President, Association of Mobile Money and Bank Agents in Nigeria (AMMBAN)
- Mr. Sarafadeen Fasasi, President, Association of Financial Inclusion Agents of Nigeria (AFIAN)
- Chidubem Emelumadu, Ecosystem Lead (Africa), Lisk
The revolutionary success story of Moniepoint, Opay, PalmPay, Flutterwave and others in the digital payment system in Nigeria represents a positive expansion of the financial services sector in the country.
With millions of Nigerians and businesses lacking access to basic financial services, the importance of Fintechs remain sacrosanct in achieving substantial level of Financial Inclusion and expanding the frontiers of the industry.
According to AI Overview, Fintechs in Nigeria have revolutionised the financial landscape by dramatically increasing access to banking services, driving, for example, a 20% increase in financial inclusion and helping to bring the banked population to roughly 63%. These firms have introduced faster, affordable digital payments, lending, and investment services, forcing traditional banks to adopt digital transformation.
On investment, AI Overview stated: “Fintechs in Nigeria dominate the tech landscape, securing 35% of total tech funding ($2 billion total) in 2024, with over 430 companies attracting roughly 36% of all African fintech investment. Despite global challenges, the sector remains highly resilient, driven by high demand, with significant deals including Moniepoint’s $110 million series C.”
In January 2026, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) granted national licences to Moniepoint, Opay etc, giving them the regulatory authority to operate across the 36 States of the Federation. The decision firmly underscores the great strides by Fintechs in driving Financial Inclusion and supporting sustainable economic growth in the country.
The 3rd Business Journal Fintech & Financial Inclusion Roundtable 2026 aims to underscore the positive contribution of Fintechs in deepening Financial Inclusion, expanding access to financial services and contributing to economic growth in the country.
Expected participants at the Roundtable include regulators, operators from key sectors of the economy, media and members of the public.
The Bank of Industry (BoI), Nigeria’s foremost Development Finance Institution (DFI), has signed a landmark Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Nigerian Belgian Chamber of Commerce (NBCC), setting the stage for deeper economic cooperation, expanded investment flows, and stronger industrial partnerships between Nigeria and Belgium.
The agreement was signed during a high-level breakfast meeting jointly hosted by BoI and the NBCC under the theme, “Scaling Operations, Expanding Capacity, and Accessing Competitive Finance.” The event convened senior government officials, diplomats, business leaders, development partners, MSMEs, and private sector stakeholders committed to advancing bilateral trade and industrial development.
Speaking on behalf of the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Bank of Industry, Dr. Olasupo Olusi, the Executive Director, Corporate Finance, Sustainability and Investments, Mr. Rotimi Akinde, described the partnership as a strategic milestone in BoI’s drive to expand global collaborations that accelerate Nigeria’s industrial transformation.
“As Nigeria’s leading Development Finance Institution, the Bank of Industry has consistently recognised that sustainable industrial development is built not only on access to finance but also on enduring strategic partnerships.
“This collaboration with the Nigerian Belgian Chamber of Commerce reflects our commitment to creating stronger international business corridors that unlock investment, facilitate technology transfer, support MSMEs, and strengthen Nigeria’s industrial competitiveness,” he said.
Akinde noted that Belgium remains one of Europe’s most dynamic trading and investment destinations, making the partnership an important platform for promoting co-investment opportunities, export development, enterprise growth, and knowledge exchange between businesses in both countries.
The two-year renewable MoU establishes a framework for joint business forums, investment roadshows, trade missions, business matchmaking, enterprise capacity development, and increased promotion of BoI’s financing solutions to Belgian investors and businesses operating in Nigeria.
The collaboration is also expected to improve access to foreign direct investment, expand export-oriented industrial projects, and create stronger commercial linkages between BoI-supported enterprises and the Belgian business community.
Delivering the welcome address, His Excellency Pieter Leenknegt, Ambassador of the Kingdom of Belgium to Nigeria, commended the growing economic relationship between both countries and expressed optimism that the partnership would create new opportunities for businesses on both sides.
The General Manager of the Nigerian Belgian Chamber of Commerce, Marc Eeckhout, described the agreement as a practical platform for translating business interest into measurable economic outcomes.
“This Memorandum of Understanding represents more than an institutional partnership; it creates a structured bridge between Belgian innovation and Nigerian enterprise. By working closely with the Bank of Industry, we are opening new pathways for investment, technology exchange, and business collaboration that will enable companies from both countries to scale with confidence while contributing to sustainable industrial development,” he said.
The breakfast dialogue featured presentations on business expansion, industrial financing, and competitiveness, with contributions from industry leaders, including Engr. Vincent Adegbotolu, Managing Director/CEO of DWC Engineering, and Mudiaga Okumagba, Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Direct Logistics Plus.
The partnership aligns with BoI’s 2025–2027 Corporate Strategy, which prioritises industrialisation, MSME development, youth and skills, women’s economic empowerment, climate finance, digital transformation, infrastructure, and export promotion. With assets valued at over ₦6.8 trillion, the Bank continues to strengthen strategic international partnerships that support the Federal Government’s industrialisation agenda while creating jobs, enhancing productivity, and promoting sustainable economic growth.
Through the collaboration, BoI expects to attract new investment opportunities from the Belgian business ecosystem, increase financing for high-impact industrial projects, strengthen export value chains, and improve the investment readiness of Nigerian enterprises through joint advisory and capacity-building initiatives.
The Bank reaffirmed its commitment to working with global partners to unlock long-term capital, accelerate industrial growth, and position Nigeria as a competitive investment destination within Africa and beyond.
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