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Opinion: Markets in Sleep Mode

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Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist at FXTM, comments on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Despite the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting record highs on Monday, the news barely made headlines. I think this could be explained by the scale of the moves.

The Dow has traded higher for ten consecutive days, but none of these ten days saw an increase of more than 0.5%.

The last time the Dow moved more than 1%, was back in May 17 when the index dropped 1.78%. Similarly, the S&P 500 was moving in a daily range of less than 0.3% for the past 13 trading days, making it the quietest period in decades.

Traders seem to be betting that volatility in stocks will remain low, despite warnings of a potential spike in VIX during the month of August. The CBOE Volatility Index fell below 10 on Monday, as short positions hit a fresh record – leading to stubbornly quiet market conditions.

Foreign exchange markets were no exception, currency pairs such as EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD were stuck within a 50 pips trading range. Limited news flow is what can be blamed for the narrow trading ranges, but expect this to change as we get closer to Friday’s U.S. CPI release.

Friday’s jobs report inspired dollar bulls for a limited time only, as investors are still not confident that a third rate hike will occur in 2017. According to CME’s FedWatch, markets still believe that a rate hike in December is not a done deal.

St. Louis Fed, President James Bullard, seems to agree, as he is not confident that current unemployment rate will be enough to push inflation towards the Fed target of 2%, and believes that interest rates should remain where they are for now.  For this perception to change, it requires inflation to accelerate, after declining for five straight months.

New York Fed President William Dudley is set to speak on Thursday, and he may oppose his colleague’s thoughts; knowing that he had been more on the hawkish side. However, dollar bulls still need hard data before jumping in.

EURUSD is likely to be the most interesting currency pair in the weeks to come. European officials might start getting worried after the most recent surge in the single currency.

German exports declined 2.8% in June, the sharpest fall in almost two years. Imports fell even more sharply, by 4.5% – the biggest drop since 2009.

These figures came from data released on Monday, showing German industrial output declined by 1.1% in June – its biggest drop so far in 2017.

However, the Euro remained resilient and continued to trade above 1.18. One set of data is probably not enough to drag down the Euro, but if negative implications continue to reflect in economic data, the Euro is likely to be pulled below 1.17.


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E-Financial

NGX REGCO Fines 5 Firms N291m for Market Manipulation

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NGX Regulation Limited (NGX REGCO), a wholly owned subsidiary of Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group) has sanctioned five trading license holders for alleged market manipulation and other prohibited trading activities, imposing fines totaling N291million.

NGX REGCO Fines 5 Firms N291m for Market Manipulation

In a notification dated March 27, 2026, and addressed to Emomotimi Agama, director-general of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the regulator said the decision followed deliberations of its Regulatory and New Business Committee (RNBC) held on March 16 and 24, 2026.

The sanctioned firms are CSL Stockbrokers Limited, Cowry Securities Limited, Meristem Stockbrokers Limited, SMADAC Securities Limited, and Associated Asset Managers Limited.

NGX RegCo stated that the cases were escalated by its Investigation Panel after hearings on February 25 and March 17, 2026, which uncovered repeated infractions such as wash trades, self-matching transactions, artificial price formation, and misleading market activity.

CSL Stockbrokers was fined N91.29 million, while Cowry Securities, Meristem Stockbrokers, SMADAC Securities, and Associated Asset Managers were each penalized N50 million in accordance with the Investment and Securities Act 2025.

The Exchange also directed the affected firms to undertake mandatory compliance and market conduct training to reinforce regulatory adherence and enhance market discipline.

It noted that the sanctions are proportionate to the violations and are intended to deter future misconduct, reaffirming its commitment to safeguarding market integrity, protecting investors, and strengthening confidence in Nigeria’s capital market.


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FG Launches Cross-Border Digital Payments Report

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Federal government has launched the “Cross-Border Digital Payments and Identity in Nigeria under the AfCFTA” report, urging stakeholders to unlock trade opportunities for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) to access the $3.5 trillion African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) market.

FG Launches Cross-Border Digital Payments Report

The high-level report, hosted by the Office of the Vice President in collaboration with ODI Global under the Supporting Investment and Trade in Africa (SITA) programme, was unveiled by Ibrahim Hassan-Hadejia, deputy chief of staff to the President, in Abuja.

Hassan-Hadejia described the research as both timely and strategic, noting the strong coordination by the Office of the Vice President and the leadership of the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment.

He revealed that the cross-border payments report followed earlier milestones, including the development and launch of Nigeria’s Digital Trade Strategy and a capacity-building programme for subnational leaders.

Furthermore, he said Nigeria is increasingly assuming a leading role in shaping the digital trade agenda across the African continent, necessitating that the country remains at the forefront of AfCFTA implementation.

He noted that deepening engagement with AfCFTA and enabling businesses, particularly SMEs, to conduct seamless cross-border transactions will be critical to unlocking trade, fostering growth, and creating jobs.

He further stated that efficient cross-border payments, supported by trusted digital identity systems as recommended in the report, will be key to realising President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope vision for Nigerian MSMEs.

The Deputy Chief of Staff also observed that while the report identifies the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System as a critical platform for cross-border digital payments, Nigerian fintech firms such as PalmPay and Moniepoint, which have some of the largest and most active user bases, will play a pivotal role in driving adoption.

He assured that the Federal Government remains committed to strengthening critical infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and partnerships to ensure Nigeria is not only ready for digital trade but continues to lead.

“I appreciate the efforts of all stakeholders and urge us to move AfCFTA beyond a continental agreement to a $3.5 trillion trade juggernaut that will reinvigorate our industries, unlock intra-African trade, and domesticate African prosperity,” he added.

He said “intra-African trade will be driven not only by large corporations but by small businesses empowered through digital trade and e-commerce, while noting that issues of trust, identity, and logistics, as highlighted in the report, must be addressed”.

Commenting on the report, Temitola Adekunle-Johnson, special Adviser to the President on Job Creation and MSMEs, said the report – developed under the purview of the Office of the Vice President-would significantly strengthen the MSME ecosystem.

He expressed optimism that the report’s findings and recommendations would enable Nigerian SMEs to achieve seamless access to continental markets.

Salihu Dasuki, special Assistant to the President on ICT Policy, Office of the Vice President, disclosed that the office, in partnership with development partners, has developed a framework to fast-track seamless cross-border payments for MSMEs.

He added that “a key pillar of President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda is enabling Nigerians to access digital trade, which informed the capacity-building programme conducted for subnational governments last year”.

Shuda Ahmed, special assistant to the President on Project Support, Office of the Vice President, commended ODI Global for leading the research underpinning the report.

She noted that without seamless and affordable cross-border payment systems, MSMEs across the continent would be unable to scale beyond their domestic markets.

The event was attended by officials of ODI Global, representatives of AfCFTA, the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), Nigerian Petroleum Development Company (NPDC), Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC), and MSMEs, among other key stakeholders.


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Interswitch Deepens Strategic Partnership with KCB Group to Advance Digital Payments and Financial Inclusion

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Interswitch, Africa-focused integrated payments and digital commerce enabler, has reaffirmed and expanded its longstanding partnership with KCB Group within the East Africa region, marking a significant milestone in the drive to accelerate seamless, secure, and inclusive digital payments across the region.

During a recent executive engagement at KCB Group Headquarters in Nairobi, Interswitch Founder and Group CEO, Mitchell Elegbe, led a cross-functional delegation from the company’s Lagos and Nairobi offices, including Interswitch’s Kenya Country General Manager, Bernard Kinara, in high-level discussions with KCB leadership, including Group CEO, Paul Russo, and Director of Strategy & Innovation, Mark Mwongela.

The engagement reinforced both organizations’ shared commitment to scaling digital payment infrastructure and delivering innovative financial solutions that meet the evolving needs of individuals, businesses, and institutions across the region.

Interswitch recently announced an expansion of Verve card acceptance footprint in Kenya, leveraging it’s consolidated partnership with KCB Group, Kenya’s largest financial services group by assets, following a similar move in Uganda through the local KCB Franchise in February 2022.

At the core of the strengthened collaboration is the integration of Interswitch’s robust payment rails, card scheme, and emerging digital token solutions with KCB Group’s expansive regional footprint and trusted banking franchise. This integration enables the acceptance of Verve cards and tokenized payment solutions across KCB’s extensive merchant point-of-sale network in Kenya and Uganda, significantly enhancing everyday usability for customers while strengthening KCB’s digitally driven retail payments offering.

The consolidated partnership is expected to drive increased merchant acquisition, improve interoperability across payment ecosystems, and expand access to secure, cashless transactions. It also reinforces both organizations’ shared objective of deepening financial inclusion and accelerating digital commerce across East Africa.

Speaking on the strategic engagement with KCB Group, Mitchell Elegbe noted:

“Our collaboration with KCB Group represents a powerful alignment of vision and capability. By combining our technology-driven payment solutions with KCB’s strong regional presence, we are unlocking new opportunities to scale access, drive innovation, and deliver greater value to customers across East Africa.”

As digital transformation continues to reshape Africa’s financial services landscape, Interswitch and KCB Group remain focused on building resilient, interoperable systems that empower businesses, support economic growth, and drive broader participation in the digital economy.


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