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Opinion: Will Nigeria Shock the Global Arena in H2?

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The largest economy in Africa has certainly had a presence in the third quarter of 2017. Investors across the globe are becoming increasingly optimistic over Nigeria’s economic outlook, as the nation mitigates internal risks, while breaking away from oil reliance.

Signs of recovery and momentum can already be viewed across Gross Domestic Growth and falling inflation, while foreign exchange has experienced an evolution.

With the ingredients for Nigeria to rattle the global arena in H2 already bubbling in the cauldron, an economic rebound by the end of the year is becoming a firm possibility.

As we head into the final trading month of Q3, market players will closely scrutinise core data such as inflation and GDP, which have the ability to boost sentiment further, if both exceed market expectations.

Nigeria’s foreign exchange crisis remains an obstacle on the road to recovery. While the timely implementation of the Investors and Exporters (FX) Window is likely to boost confidence over Nigeria’s outlook, this is only the first step.

With the NAFEX increasing the supply of foreign exchange into the largest economy in Africa, investors are likely to be magnetized, consequently adding another layer of stability to the FX markets.

The Central Bank of Nigeria may be commended on its ability to unify some of their multiple exchanges, by letting dealers quote the Naira levels used in trades, but more transparency is still needed.

For Nigeria to abolish its multiple exchanges and truly have an official exchange rate, it will require an official devaluation, which President Muhammadu Buhari has repeatedly rejected.

While a devaluation of the Naira is likely to accelerate inflation and punish Nigerians at home, it will increase transparency and ultimately boost foreign direct investment, which could in turn fuel economic growth.

Speaking of the Naira, the local currency currently trades around 370 to the Dollar on the parallel exchange.

Although the implementation of NAFEX has weakened prices noticeably, the currency still continues to hold ground against a broadly weaker Dollar. Further intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria, coupled with confidence over Nigeria’s economic recovery, is likely to support the local currency further this year.

Market players will continue to evaluate the Federal Reserve’s ability to raise US interest rates, which have the power to strengthen the Dollar – consequently punishing emerging market currencies.

While Nigeria has taken steps to shield itself from internal shocks, the threat of capital outflows from a resurgent Dollar is still an issue that cannot be overlooked. Focusing on the technical outlook, repeated Dollar weakness could send the USDNGN towards 350 on the parallel markets.

With inflation in Nigeria following a negative trajectory, economic fundamentals stabilizing and foreign exchange displaying early signs of transparency, the Central bank of Nigeria is likely to remain in sharp focus.

While the intricate combination of falling oil prices, decelerating economic growth and a currency crisis initially encouraged the CBN to remain on standby, the current economic landscape has morphed for the better.

The clock is ticking for the central bank to make a move with an interest rate cut, as cooling inflation and improving core fundamentals indicate signs of stability.

The outlook for oil remains a significant economic factor for Nigeria, especially when considering how the commodity impacts the nation’s government revenues and stability of foreign exchange markets.

WTI Crude has struggled to maintain gains in August, with prices pressured below $50, as the oversupply concerns weighed on sentiment. This has been an interesting and volatile period for oil markets, with the commodity trapped in a tough tug of war, as conflicting data attracts both the bulls and bears.

Despite OPEC’s optimism over the production cut deal continues to spark speculative boosts in prices, reports of compliance slumping in July and output jumping to a 2017 high in the same month, excited bears.

This battle of attrition may be coming to a finale, with oil’s bearish action suggesting that investors are becoming increasingly skeptical of the cartel’s ability to rebalance the markets.

Nigeria has the ability to bounce back from an economic deceleration and break away from oil reliance but the right steps must be taken.

The developments in August are already highly encouraging with the implementation of NAFEX increasing foreign exchange transparency and putting investors at ease. As we head into the final month of Q3, market players are likely to become more dependent on data to gauge the nation’s economic health.

Sentiment towards the Nigerian economy continues to improve amid the stabilizing fundamentals, with the Central Bank of Nigeria cutting interest rates to support growth further if all the boxes are ticked.


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E-Financial

Nigerians Trust Bitcoin for Financial Security than Sanks – Report

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Nigerians have more trust in Bitcoin-based systems than in traditional alternatives such as banks and government, a new report by Elastos, an open-source blockchain website, has stated.

Nigerians Trust Bitcoin for Financial Security than Sanks – Report

According to its inaugural BIT Index (Bitcoin; Innovation & Trust), emerging markets are driving the adoption of Bitcoin, with Nigeria and the UAE leading the charge.

The report revealed that 66 per cent of Nigerian respondents and 35 per cent from Brazil had more confidence in Bitcoin-based systems than alternatives like banks or national governments, compared to just 16 per cent in Germany and 21 per cent in the UK.

The survey also revealed that 20 per cent of Nigerian consumers use Bitcoin to conduct transactions at least once a day, while 67 per cent would have more trust in Bitcoin to protect their life savings than traditional services like banks, local governments, and cash.

According to the platform, the research was compiled from online interviews conducted with 1,407 self-defined ‘tech savvy’ respondents in Brazil, Germany, Nigeria, South Korea, the UAE, the UK, and the US.

It stated that the interviews were completed by a third party, a registered market research company, between March 30 and April 4, 2024.

“When it comes to ensuring the integrity of online transactions, emerging market respondents also revealed their relative confidence in Bitcoin compared to alternatives,” it indicated.

According to the report, 66 per cent of Nigerian respondents and 35 per cent of Brazil have more confidence in Bitcoin-based systems than alternatives, such as banks or national governments, compared to figures of just 16 per cent (Germany) and 21 per cent (UK) who feel the same.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Hargreaves,  Elastos’ global head, Business Development & ESG, described the BIT Index’s inaugural findings as indicative of the role the ‘global south’ was playing in the adoption of decentralised currencies such as Bitcoin.

“The BIT Index offers a fascinating and sobering insight into the industry. The fact that over two-thirds of Nigerian consumers and a third of their counterparts from the UAE and Brazil would feel more confident entrusting their life savings to Bitcoin rather than traditional financial instruments speaks volumes about the protagonism these regions are already playing.

“In many instances, the driving factor is the absence of viable, accessible alternatives to, for instance, conduct cross-border transactions or mitigate the impact of inflation,” he said.

According to Chainalysis, a cryptocurrency research firm, Nigeria’s crypto transaction volume grew year-over-year to $56.7bn in 2023.

It stated that the country’s crypto economy continued to grow despite market turmoil in the space.

On the contrary, the government has been taking strong measures to restrict and clamp down on cryptocurrency exchanges and platforms operating in the country.

 

 


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CBN Licenses Unified Payments as Second Provider for PTSA Services for Nigeria

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has awarded the country’s second Payment Terminal Service Aggregator (PTSA) license to Unified Payments, Nigeria’s premier financial technology company, following a rigorous and transparent process,

CBN Licenses Unified Payments as Second Provider for PTSA Services for Nigeria

The move is targeted at enforcing existing requirement that all transactions from point-of-sale channels in Nigeria must go through a licensed Payment Terminal Service Aggregator (PTSA).

The CBN is enforcing the laws to clamp down on financial crimes and other market misconducts and it aligns with the CBN’s objectives to fully track all electronic transactions in Nigeria, given the propensity of using such transactions to fund insecurity, violent crimes, banditry, kidnapping as well as other vices.

According to one analyst, “By awarding a second PTSA license, the apex bank has proactively responded to industry operators who had expressed serious concerns about channelling all transactions through a single aggregator, the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System PLC (NIBBS), as has been the case for some years.

“With the new policy direction, payments service providers would henceforth route all transactions through either of the two licensed Companies.”

Other financial analysts and industry players have commended the Central Bank, affirming that “the move can be a massive step in the right direction. They also commended the open, transparent, and inclusive manner via which the selection process was managed, and the license awarded.

“The selection process, which lasted for months, began with an invitation for qualified organisations within the payment industry to submit an Expression of Interest document, alongside other requisite documentation and additional capital requirement of N1 billion.”

 

The new management of CBN decided not to give the license out without going through an open process – and for the first time in licensing a payment service provider – the apex bank went through a public bid process outlined in its publication of Friday, January 5, 2024, in different national newspapers. At the end of the process, Unified Payments emerged as the most preferred service provider.

Unified Payment Services Limited, also called Unified Payments or UP, is a shared service provider within Nigeria’s financial technology sector owned by a consortium of Nigerian banks. For over 26 years, the firm has provided payment technology to banks and other industry operators. The first and only non-bank entity that is a principal member and licensed acquirer of all of American Express, Mastercard, Visa, UnionPay and Payattitude. Unified Payments facilitates both local and international transactions.

Formerly known as ValuCard Nigeria Plc, Unified Payments led the way to introduce POS payments in Nigeria under its card scheme known as ValuCard which is the first payment card to be issued in Nigeria. The company later transformed into a scheme-neutral and option-neutral service provider enabling transactions under different schemes.

The company has continued to provide leading payment technologies and services, enabling different operators to leverage its capabilities and licenses, enabling prompt and seamless transactions.

Among the shareholders of Unified Payments are First Bank, Access Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, Zenith Bank and Fidelity Bank. Other shareholders are Citibank Nigeria Limited, Ecobank of Nigeria Plc, First City Monument Bank Plc, Keystone Bank Ltd, Polaris Bank Ltd, Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc, Sterling Bank Plc and Wema Bank Plc.


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CIBN says Recapitalization will Empower Banks to Lend more to Economy

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Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, CIBN, has expressed support for the ongoing banking recapitalization exercise saying it will empower banks to lend more to the economy.

CIBN President, Dr. Ken Opara stated this yesterday while speaking at the annual lecture of the institute in Lagos, with the theme “Improving Availability of Credit in the Nigerian Real Economy: The Critical Importance of Liquidity.”

Okpara noted that the volume of credit to the real sector activities namely agriculture, manufacturing and services is low compared to their critical role in driving economic growth.

Consequently, he called for more credit to the real sector, saying, “I   propose that we consider offering more credit to these key sectors and particularly the agriculture sector. It is for this reason that the Recapitalization exercise is a welcome development.

“The recently announced upward review of the Minimum Capital Requirements of Nigeria by the Central Bank of Nigeria would further empower banks to extend more credit to the economy’s productive sectors.”

To address these factors impeding credit to the real sector, Okpara suggested that, “The government needs to improve further the ease of doing business and infrastructural development, such as power, roads, rail networks, etc.

“Setting up industrial centres where these companies can co-habit and share common infrastructure. Harmonize and reduce the various taxes and levies, including locating them in a single hub.

“Banks need to be deliberate in de-risking these companies via Capacity building programmes, and Advisory services.

Specialised Financial Institutions can be created in addition to the Bank of Industry (BOI), especially credit guarantee agencies and risk-sharing institutions, to further facilitate the deepening of credit as practiced in countries such as China which significantly transformed its economy.


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