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Recession: Don’t Stop Diversification Policy FXTM Analyst to FG

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An undeniable feeling of disappointment engulfed the Nigerian economy on Wednesday following the 2.06% contraction in the second quarter GDP which confirmed that the nation had descended into a technical recession.  ‎

‎The National Bureau of Statistics released the much-awaited Gross Domestic Product figures for the second quarter of 2016 with the GDP growth rate sliding further from -0.36 per cent in the first quarter to -2.06 per cent year-on-year.

Commenting on the news, Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst of FXTM‎ said, that the signs of an imminent slowdown were already visible with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s reserves falling to 19 billion as the nation struggled to support its local currency.

He however, advised that the Federal Government should not give up on its policies meant to diversify to non-oil revenue earning resources.

The negative growth rate recorded in the second quarter of this year is a confirmation of the predictions by the Federal Government and economists that the country was heading into recession.‎

A recession is defined as a significant decline in activities across the economy, lasting longer than a few months. It is visible in industrial production, employment, real income and wholesale retail trade.

The technical indicator of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country’s GDP.

In the GDP report released by the NBS, the bureau said, “In the second quarter of 2016, the nation’s Gross Domestic Product declined by -2.06 per cent (year-on- year) in real terms.

“This was lower by 1.70 per cent points from the growth rate of –0.36 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter, and also lower by 4.41 per cent points from the growth rate of 2.35 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2015. Quarter on quarter, real GDP increased by 0.82 per cent.”‎

Otunuga said that while Naira’s vulnerability was highly expected following the official floatation, external risks such as a resurgent Dollar has accelerated the devaluation of the local currency consequently pressuring the nation further.

“With inflation and unemployment hovering around worrying levels, the CBN has been placed under immense pressure to act which may weigh on investor sentiment. While the News of Nigeria entering a recession may be painful, this should be no surprise as the incessant declines in oil prices have punished heavily oil export nations with Nigeria being no exception.

“Although sentiment towards Nigeria remains bearish, it should be kept in mind that the blueprint to diversify and break away from the curse of oil reliance is already in process.

“The government has already approved a conservative three-year budget with plans to reinforce infrastructure, services, manufacturing and agriculture are in place. Naira’s weakness may attract foreign investors in the future which could ultimately uplift overall GDP”, he said. ‎

Nigeria is undergoing a major structural change and although there is a risk of extended periods of low growth, this transition could be something which exceeds all expectations.‎‎

 


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E-Financial

Fidelity Bank Sees Technology as a Strategic Enabler of Efficiency, Growth

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Dr. Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Fidelity Bank Plc, has described technology not as an abstract concept, but a practical tool for solving real problems.

She said Fidelity Bank has embraced technology as a strategic enabler of efficiency and growth.

Dr. Onyeali-Ikpe, stated this in her keynote address at the 17th Africa’s Beacon of ICT Merit and Leadership lecture held over the weekend.

Represented by Mr. Stantley Amuchie, executive director at Fidelity, she said the bank have deployed AI driven systems in key areas of its operations.

“Our fraud detection systems leverage machine learning to identify unusual patterns and prevent losses in real time. Our credit assessment processes have been enhanced through data driven models that improve accuracy and speed.

“We have also invested in AI powered customer engagement platforms, including chatbots and digital assistants, which provide real-time support, improve customer experience and reduce operational pressure on our teams.

“Beyond internal operations, we are extending these benefits to our customers. Through our SME initiatives, we are providing entrepreneurs with digital tools such as POS systems and enterprise software that simplify accounting, inventory management, and business decision making, helping them operate more efficiently and scale sustainably,” she said.

On the Africa scene, she noted that banks across the continent are deploying AI to enhance fraud detection, improve credit assessment, and streamline customer onboarding processes, reducing costs and improving service delivery.

“Some have implemented AI driven systems that analyse transactions in real time, detect anomalies, and reduce operational risks, while others have leveraged digital assistants to manage customer interactions at scale, improving response time and freeing human capacity for higher value tasks.

“Across Kenya and South Africa, AI powered solutions are also supporting financial inclusion by enabling faster loan decisions and better risk management.

“The message is clear, Africa is not just a consumer of technology, we are active participants in shaping its future, she added.

She stated that efficiency is no longer optional, but a strategic imperative. “Organisations that fail to adopt intelligent systems will struggle with cost inefficiencies, slow decision making, and declining competitiveness. Those that embrace AI and IoT will operate faster, respond better, and deliver more value.

More so, she identified three key success factors from Fidelity bank experience, among which are, leadership commitment. Digital transformation must be driven from the top, with clear vision and sustained investment.

Second, data discipline. AI and IoT are only as effective as the data that powers them. Organisations must prioritise data quality, governance and security.

Third, talent and culture. Technology alone is not enough. People must be equipped with the skills and mindset to leverage these tools effectively.

Looking into the future, Dr. Onyeali-Ikpe posited that we must recognize that the convergence of AI and IoT will accelerate. We will see smarter cities, intelligent supply chains, predictive healthcare, and more inclusive financial systems.

“The question is no longer whether these technologies will shape our future, how prepared we are to harness them” he added.


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Banks Lending to FG  Hit N15.66 Trillion in One Year– CBN

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Banks in Nigeria increased their lending to the federal government significantly over the past year, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Banks Lending to FG  Hit N15.66 Trillion in One Year– CBN

The figures show that credit given to the government rose from N23.93 trillion in April 2025 to N39.60 trillion in April 2026.

This represents an increase of N15.66 trillion, which is a very large jump of about 65.44% within just one year.

During the same period, the total amount of credit in the economy also increased, rising from N102.00 trillion to N120.18 trillion.

However, most of this growth did not go to private businesses or households.

Instead, the government accounted for the largest share of the increase in borrowing from the banking system. Out of the total N18.18 trillion rise in domestic credit, about N15.66 trillion went to the government, while only N2.52 trillion went to the private sector.

This means roughly 86% of new credit created in the period was directed toward government borrowing.

This trend suggests that banks are increasingly preferring to lend to the government rather than to private companies.

At the same time, lending to the private sector has remained relatively weak and uneven.

Private sector credit rose only slightly from N78.07 trillion to N80.59 trillion over the one-year period, which is a very small increase compared to government borrowing.

In fact, there were also signs of decline in private sector credit in some months, showing that businesses may be facing tighter access to bank loans.

In contrast, government borrowing continued to grow steadily.

By April 2026, credit to the government had also increased when compared with earlier months in the year, showing a consistent upward trend.

This growing reliance on bank financing by the government has also increased its share of total domestic credit in the banking system.

Government credit accounted for 32.95% of total domestic credit in April 2026, up from 23.46% in April 2025, which shows a significant shift in lending patterns.

The broader financial environment also showed some changes during this period.

Nigeria’s total money supply increased to N124.99 trillion in April 2026, supported mainly by growth in domestic assets.

The Central Bank of Nigeria also reduced the Monetary Policy Rate slightly to 26.5%, in an attempt to manage inflation and stimulate economic activity.

However, despite this policy change, lending patterns still showed a stronger preference for government securities and borrowing compared to private sector loans.

Overall, the data reflects a financial system where banks are increasingly channeling credit toward government needs, while private sector borrowing remains limited.

This situation may have wider implications for economic growth, as reduced access to credit for businesses can slow down investment, expansion, and job creation in the long run.

 

 


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Nigerian Banks Under Pressure as Bad Loans Hit 8.03% After CBN Policy Shift

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Non-performing loans (NPLs) in Nigeria’s banking sector rose to 8.03 per cent in January 2026, exceeding the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) prudential threshold of five per cent, following the withdrawal of regulatory forbearance granted to banks on certain credit exposures.

Nigerian Banks Under Pressure as Bad Loans Hit 8.03% After CBN Policy Shift

CBN

The latest figure, contained in the CBN’s January 2026 Economic Report, represents an increase of 0.52 percentage points from the 7.51 per cent recorded in December 2025.

According to the report, the rise in bad loans followed the reclassification of credit facilities after the apex bank terminated regulatory reliefs that had previously allowed banks to restructure troubled loans without classifying them as non-performing.

“Following the bank’s loan reclassification after the withdrawal of forbearance, the non-performing loans ratio rose by 0.52 percentage point to 8.03 per cent compared with the level in the preceding period and was above the 5.00 per cent prudential threshold,” the report stated.

The development comes seven months after the CBN directed banks benefiting from regulatory forbearance on credit exposures and single obligor limit breaches to suspend dividend payments, defer bonuses for directors and senior management, and halt new investments in foreign subsidiaries and offshore ventures.

The measures were introduced to strengthen capital buffers, improve balance-sheet resilience and ensure affected institutions retained earnings while exiting temporary regulatory support.

The withdrawal of COVID-19-related forbearance and waivers on single obligor limits, which took effect on June 30, 2025, has resulted in several previously restructured loans being reclassified as non-performing, contributing to the increase in industry-wide bad loans.

Analysts say the latest figures indicate that weaker loan assets previously cushioned by regulatory relief are now being fully recognised on banks’ balance sheets.

In its macroeconomic outlook report, the CBN warned that a significant increase in bad loans could weaken asset quality and pose risks to financial system stability.

The apex bank also advocated deeper integration of the Global Standing Instruction (GSI) framework across financial institutions to improve loan recovery and strengthen credit discipline.

As part of broader reforms, the CBN had earlier directed bank directors with non-performing insider-related loans to resign from their positions and mandated banks to recover such debts through collateral enforcement, including the seizure of pledged shareholdings.

More recently, the regulator introduced restrictions on large borrowers with non-performing loans, barring them from accessing additional credit facilities and certain banking services.

Under the directive, financial institutions are prohibited from granting new loans, letters of credit, performance bonds and other contingent liabilities to large-ticket obligors whose non-performing facilities are recorded in the Credit Risk Management System (CRMS) or licensed private credit bureaus.

Despite the deterioration in asset quality, the CBN maintained that the banking sector remained resilient.

The report showed that the industry’s liquidity ratio improved to 63.38 per cent in January from 57.22 per cent in December, remaining well above the regulatory minimum of 30 per cent.

Similarly, the capital adequacy ratio stood at 12.05 per cent, slightly lower than the 12.35 per cent recorded in December but above the minimum requirement of 10 per cent.

“The Nigerian banking industry remained resilient, with most financial soundness indicators staying within prudential regulatory thresholds, affirming financial stability and institutional soundness,” the report stated.

However, members of the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have expressed concern over the rising level of bad loans.

The CBN Deputy Governor for Economic Policy, Muhammad Abdullahi, warned that increasing NPLs could undermine financial stability and weaken the transmission of monetary policy.

He noted that the challenge was occurring alongside persistent excess liquidity in the banking system, potentially affecting the flow of credit to productive sectors.

Also speaking, MPC member Aku Odinkemelu called for stronger regulatory oversight, saying the rise in non-performing loans underscored the need for heightened supervisory vigilance to protect asset quality and ensure effective credit transmission.

Industry observers say the latest data present a mixed outlook for the banking sector, with strong liquidity and capital positions offset by growing concerns over asset quality as banks adjust to stricter prudential standards following the end of regulatory forbearance.


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