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Resilience of the Labour Markets During COVID-19

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Gregory Kronsten

It is said by some analysts thatCOVID-19 is responsible for irreversible changes in our economies, including patterns of employment. It was therefore a revelation to read the latest national income dynamics study-coronavirus rapid mobile survey (NIDS-CRAM) from South Africa.

Based upon a sample of 10,000 individuals, wave 3 (the most recent published data) shows that active employment in the country in October was just 0.15 per cent lower than the level in pre-COVID February.

The recovery has been strong. In April, when the domestic lockdown was at its height, employment was 40 per cent lower than in February and in June, when most restrictions had been eased, it was still 20 per cent down. Additionally, the data suggests that the recovery has been in all forms of employment, and not just part-time posts created by employers nervous about future economic prospects.

The three academic authors of the section of the surveys covering the labour market, two based in the US and one in the UK, noted similar trends in other emerging markets (EMs): from the low point in April, the recovery was well underway by June in Brazil and Mexico, and by August in India and Ghana.

Closer to home, we refer to COVID-19 impact monitoring, a series of publications by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in partnership with the World Bank. The narrative is similar from the sixth and latest instalment of this smaller survey, which covers 1,950 households: 87 per cent of respondents were employed in October, compared with 86 per cent at the pre-COVID base (mid-March).

Reflecting the structure of the economy, households are divided between urban and rural. Employment was a little behind March for the former, a little ahead for the latter.

A clear trend is apparent across selected emerging markets. There is a familiar lag in the release of data from academic sources, research foundations and official statistical bodies. Job losses may have picked up again in South Africa due to the resurgence of COVID-19 and reimposition of some restrictions in late 2020/early 2021. This does not detract from our broader argument that these economies display resilience in employment terms once controls are eased.

We are not looking for parallels with advanced economies because of a point we have often made in these columns: that they have fiscal and other resources on a scale of which emerging market governments can only dream. You can close down the economy and pay your employed citizens not to work through a furlough scheme in an advanced economy.

You can then reopen the economy and subsidize meals out for the family. In EMs your choices are far more limited. A core tool of the South African government, for example, is its social relief of distress grant, which is received by 35 per cent of all households.

Three other conclusions from the three waves of NIDS-CRAM are worth highlighting. First, the employment trends are consistent with monthly production data from Statistics South Africa, the local counterpart of the NBS. This is true of mining, manufacturing and retail but not, for obvious reasons, of tourism.

Second and tentatively, there has been an unusual increase in jobs in sales and services. Thirdly and again cautiously, earnings may have risen slightly between February and October.

If we attempt to read across to Nigeria, we do not have the data for the first two conclusions while the fourth instalment of COVID-19 impact monitoring noted that two thirds of households surveyed reported a fall in earnings.

Gregory Kronsten is Head, Macroeconomic and Fixed Income Research, FBNQuest


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NGX Unveils Net-Zero Plan for Greener Capital Market

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Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) has launched the NGX Net-Zero Programme to guide listed companies toward clear carbon reduction pathways and enhanced climate disclosures aligned with global investor standards.

NGX Unveils Net-Zero Plan for Greener Capital Market

NGX

The high-level launch engaged chief executives of quoted firms alongside development partners including German Investment Corporation KfW, DEG, and African Foresight Group (AFG), NGX’s implementation partner. Issuers and investors discussed financing decarbonisation, sustainability practices, and attracting climate-aligned capital.

NGX Group Chairman Dr Umaru Kwairanga described the initiative as concrete climate action, commending partners for two years of groundwork. “Today marks leadership and decisive action. Climate change has become a core business imperative, with capital markets mobilising capital and setting standards,” Kwairanga said.

He positioned NGX Net-Zero to support emissions measurement, disclosure, capacity building, and sustainable finance access, urging CEOs to embrace it strategically rather than as compliance. Kwairanga reaffirmed NGX’s goal to make Nigeria’s capital market Africa’s green finance hub.

Group CEO Temi Popoola called climate action a business imperative, noting sustainability-embedded firms attract capital, manage risks, and stay competitive. DEG Management Board Member Monika Beck highlighted partnerships scaling impactful, commercially viable climate solutions.

The event closed with a ceremonial gong marking the programme launch and send-off for outgoing DEG Regional Director Bernd Telemann.


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Nigeria Off EU High-Risk Money Laundering List in Major Financial Win

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Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) has hailed Nigeria’s removal from the European Union’s list of high-risk third countries for Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) as a landmark achievement endorsing the nation’s reform efforts.

Nigeria Off EU High-Risk Money Laundering List in Major Financial Win

Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU)

NFIU CEO Hafsat Abubakar Bakari said the delisting, contained in European Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) C (2025) 8460 adopted December 4, 2025 and effective January 29, 2026, affirms sustained AML/CFT and Counter Proliferation Financing (CPF) reforms.

The move follows Nigeria’s exit from the FATF Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring after addressing strategic deficiencies, alongside Burkina Faso, Mali, Mozambique, South Africa and Tanzania.

Bakari noted the European Commission recognised Nigeria’s strengthened AML/CFT effectiveness, closed technical gaps, and fulfilled FATF Action Plan commitments leading to grey list removal in June and October 2025.

The delisting eliminates enhanced due diligence requirements for EU financial transactions, easing compliance, boosting cross-border flows, and enhancing Nigeria’s appeal for European trade, investment and partnerships.

The NFIU attributed success to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political will and collaboration among National Assembly, law enforcement, regulators, judiciary, private sector and development partners.

The agency reaffirmed commitment to ongoing FATF, GIABA, EU engagement and domestic framework resilience to maintain international confidence in Nigeria’s financial system.


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FG Directs Banks, Fintechs to Remit VAT on Service Fees

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The Federal Government has directed all banks and fintechs to collect and remit 7.5 per cent value-added tax on certain electronic banking services, effective Monday, January 19, 2026, according to an email notice issued by payment platforms.

The VAT will apply to electronic banking charges, including mobile money transfers, USSD transaction fees, and card issuance fees, according to an email notice on Wednesday shared with customers by Moniepoint.

For example, if a bank charges N100 to make a transfer, the 7.5 per cent VAT will be applied to that service fee, not the money being sent.

“From Monday, January 19, 2026, we are required to collect a 7.5 per cent VAT, to be remitted to the Nigerian Revenue Service (formerly known as the Federal Inland Revenue Service).

“VAT will apply to certain banking services that include electronic banking charges such as mobile banking fees (transfers), USSD transaction fees, and card issuance fees,” the email read.

Other operators are expected to issue similar notices to their customers in the coming days. Services that will remain exempt include interest earned on deposits and savings, meaning customers will not pay tax on the returns from their accounts.

The NRS, formerly known as the Federal Inland Revenue Service, has set the deadline to ensure that all commercial banks, microfinance banks, and electronic money operators comply with the collection and remittance requirement.

Moniepoint stressed that this is not a price increase but a statutory obligation. “Moniepoint is required to collect and remit VAT to the Nigerian Revenue Service,” the company said in a statement.

The move is part of the government’s broader efforts to standardise VAT collection on digital financial services and expand revenue generation amid Nigeria’s growing digital economy. VAT on banking transactions is not entirely new; the NRS is now enforcing uniform collection rules across all platforms, ensuring compliance across the sector.

Customers have been assured that the new tax will be clearly itemised, with the VAT shown separately on transaction statements and reports.

In December, several commercial banks informed customers that the N50 stamp duty would be deducted on electronic transfers of N10,000 and above, following the commencement of provisions of the new Tax Act.

The charge, previously known as the EMTL, has now been formally reclassified as stamp duty and will be applied as a one-off fee on qualifying electronic transfers.

 


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