News
Resilience of the Labour Markets During COVID-19

Gregory Kronsten
It is said by some analysts thatCOVID-19 is responsible for irreversible changes in our economies, including patterns of employment. It was therefore a revelation to read the latest national income dynamics study-coronavirus rapid mobile survey (NIDS-CRAM) from South Africa.

Based upon a sample of 10,000 individuals, wave 3 (the most recent published data) shows that active employment in the country in October was just 0.15 per cent lower than the level in pre-COVID February.
The recovery has been strong. In April, when the domestic lockdown was at its height, employment was 40 per cent lower than in February and in June, when most restrictions had been eased, it was still 20 per cent down. Additionally, the data suggests that the recovery has been in all forms of employment, and not just part-time posts created by employers nervous about future economic prospects.
The three academic authors of the section of the surveys covering the labour market, two based in the US and one in the UK, noted similar trends in other emerging markets (EMs): from the low point in April, the recovery was well underway by June in Brazil and Mexico, and by August in India and Ghana.
Closer to home, we refer to COVID-19 impact monitoring, a series of publications by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in partnership with the World Bank. The narrative is similar from the sixth and latest instalment of this smaller survey, which covers 1,950 households: 87 per cent of respondents were employed in October, compared with 86 per cent at the pre-COVID base (mid-March).
Reflecting the structure of the economy, households are divided between urban and rural. Employment was a little behind March for the former, a little ahead for the latter.
A clear trend is apparent across selected emerging markets. There is a familiar lag in the release of data from academic sources, research foundations and official statistical bodies. Job losses may have picked up again in South Africa due to the resurgence of COVID-19 and reimposition of some restrictions in late 2020/early 2021. This does not detract from our broader argument that these economies display resilience in employment terms once controls are eased.
We are not looking for parallels with advanced economies because of a point we have often made in these columns: that they have fiscal and other resources on a scale of which emerging market governments can only dream. You can close down the economy and pay your employed citizens not to work through a furlough scheme in an advanced economy.
You can then reopen the economy and subsidize meals out for the family. In EMs your choices are far more limited. A core tool of the South African government, for example, is its social relief of distress grant, which is received by 35 per cent of all households.
Three other conclusions from the three waves of NIDS-CRAM are worth highlighting. First, the employment trends are consistent with monthly production data from Statistics South Africa, the local counterpart of the NBS. This is true of mining, manufacturing and retail but not, for obvious reasons, of tourism.
Second and tentatively, there has been an unusual increase in jobs in sales and services. Thirdly and again cautiously, earnings may have risen slightly between February and October.
If we attempt to read across to Nigeria, we do not have the data for the first two conclusions while the fourth instalment of COVID-19 impact monitoring noted that two thirds of households surveyed reported a fall in earnings.
Gregory Kronsten is Head, Macroeconomic and Fixed Income Research, FBNQuest
News
New Horizons Invests N50m to Empower Almajiris with Skills

New Horizons Nigeria has launched a N50 million initiative aimed at transforming 21 Almajiri children into skilled computer technicians within 90 days, to tackle youth unemployment and harness human potential.

The Almajiri-to-Tech programme, officially launched in Abuja on Monday, provides participants with full training, meals, clothing, tools, and logistics support, all fully funded.
Speaking at the launch, the Chief Executive Officer of New Horizons, Tim Akano, said the programme represents a new journey in the history of Nigeria by restoring the original purpose of the Almajiri system, which he described as “children sent out to seek knowledge.”
“The word Almajiri comes from an Arabic term meaning emigrant and seeker of knowledge. Historically, children were sent to learn morals, responsibility, and skills to add value to society,” Akano said.
He added that the disruption of this system during colonial times forced many children onto the streets, a challenge that persists today.
Akano highlighted the urgency of addressing the Almajiri issue, noting that there are an estimated 15 million Almajiris in the country, with a population growth rate of around three per cent annually.
“If we do not solve this problem as a country, we are sitting on a time bomb,” he warned.
According to him, the programme focuses on hands-on technical skills rather than theory. Trainees will learn to repair mobile phones, laptops, televisions, radios, standing fans, and other electronic devices, as well as build inverter batteries using recycled electronic waste.
“We are not teaching theory. We are teaching practical skills you can use to earn a living,” Akano said, stressing that the programme will not interfere with the participants’ Quranic education.
“We are still going to allow you, within the period of learning. Your learning computer here is not stopping your Quranic education.
“You still have time within our space here. Whenever you want to go and pray, you can pray, then come back to class,” the CEO stressed.
He added that participants will also receive daily meals, water, T-shirts identifying them as technicians-in-training, and access to all necessary tools and equipment throughout the 90-day programme.
Akano said the initiative is part of a larger mission by New Horizons Nigeria, which has spent the past 21 years training about 100,000 Nigerians annually in IT and related skills.
He said the new programme aims to “take human genius off the streets and convert it into human capital, enabling these youths to contribute meaningfully to the economy.”
He added that equipping Almajiris with skills could add 15 million people to Nigeria’s workforce and potentially increase the country’s GDP by as much as $20 billion, stressing that productivity depends on practical skills and opportunity.
“Everything that can be taught can be learned. If someone can memorize the Quran cover to cover, there is nothing that cannot be done. What they lack is information, opportunity, and infrastructure, and we are providing all of that,” Akano said.
Akano also stressed that the initiative is designed to inspire other organizations and government agencies to replicate similar programmes across the country.
“This is not just about 21 children; it is about showing Nigeria what is possible when resources meet intention and planning.
“If we succeed in empowering these Almajiris, we demonstrate that the country can turn social challenges into economic opportunities. It’s a blueprint for Nigeria’s future,” he said, noting that the initiative combines social reform, technical education, and economic empowerment.
Also speaking, one of the trainees, Fatima Umar, appreciated the organisers and promised to maximise the opportunity.
“We’ll make you proud of us. We have nothing to say here but to thank and appreciate you. May Almighty Allah continue to guide and protect you,” Umar said.
News
IMF Upgrades Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Projection to 4.4%

International Monetary Fund has upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 economic growth projection to 4.4 per cent, reflecting improved macroeconomic stability and sustained reforms.

IMF
The January 2026 World Economic Outlook Update forecasts Nigeria’s growth trajectory at 4.1 per cent in 2024, 4.2 per cent in 2025, and 4.4 per cent in 2026—a 0.2 percentage point increase from the October 2025 estimate.
This aligns with sub-Saharan Africa’s projected 4.6 per cent expansion in 2026 and 2027, driven by regional stabilisation efforts.
Globally, the IMF anticipates 3.3 per cent growth amid resilient conditions tempered by trade policy shifts and technology investments. For Nigeria, declining energy prices—expected to fall seven per cent due to weak demand—pose risks, though OPEC+ coordination and China’s stockpiling provide support.
Despite the optimism, downside risks persist from Middle East and Ukraine tensions, protectionism, high debt, and fiscal deficits. The Fund recommends rebuilding fiscal buffers, ensuring central bank independence, and limiting temporary fiscal measures to maintain stability.
Nigeria’s success hinges on consistent reforms and resilience against domestic and global shocks, the IMF concluded.
News
Nigeria’s Crude Output Falls to 1.486mbpd in November – OPEC

Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reports that Nigeria’s crude oil production, excluding condensate, dropped by 0.7 per cent to 1.486 million barrels per day (mbpd) in November 2025 from 1.496 mbpd in October.

OPEC
The figure, drawn from secondary sources in OPEC’s December 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report, fell short of Nigeria’s 1.5 mbpd quota. Direct communication data showed output at 1.436 mbpd, up from October’s 1.401 mbpd, but still below target.
Nigeria produces around 196,028 bpd of condensate, excluded from quota calculations per Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission figures. Year-on-year, November’s output marked a slight gain over 1.417 mbpd in November 2024.
Expert Cites Insecurity, Governance Gaps
Petroleum economics expert Wumi Iledare described the quota miss as unsurprising, blaming persistent insecurity, an ageing oil basin lacking new finds, and unoffered hydrocarbon blocks. Governance shortcomings and policy uncertainty further erode investor confidence, he noted.
Selective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act worsens the situation, with Nigeria needing a single authoritative leader for the sector rather than multiple proxies, Mr Iledare stressed. The country has struggled to consistently hit OPEC targets for years.
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