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Richer Banks, Poorer Economy: The Hidden Crisis in Nigeria’s Financial System

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By Blaise Udunze
Across Africa, banks are getting bigger but not necessarily better. From South Africa’s Standard Bank to Morocco’s Attijariwafa and Egypt’s National Bank, financial institutions are boasting record balance sheets, higher Tier 1 capital, and growing regional footprints. According to African Business magazine’s 2025 ranking of the continent’s top 100 banks, Africa’s total Tier 1 capital climbed to $126 billion, up from $120 billion in 2024.
But behind this glowing façade of balance sheet expansion lies a troubling irony, especially in Nigeria. Despite being home to some of the continent’s most visible lenders, Nigeria is missing from the International Monetary Fund’s latest list of Africa’s fastest-growing economies. While Nigerian banks such as Access Bank, Zenith Bank, UBA, and FBN Holdings feature among Africa’s top 20 in assets, their impact on real economic growth remains painfully limited.
In simpler terms, Nigeria’s banks are becoming richer without making the economy stronger.
It is one of the defining contradictions of modern Nigerian finance, where a banking sector keeps ballooning in size even as the real economy struggles to breathe. The IMF projects Nigeria’s GDP growth at 3.9 percent in 2025, below the 6-8 percent threshold that defines Africa’s fastest-growing economies. Meanwhile, smaller nations such as Rwanda, Benin, and Côte d’Ivoire are racing ahead, driven by reforms, industrial growth, and investment-friendly policies.
So why is Africa’s largest economy growing so slowly even with “Africa’s biggest banks” at its helm? The answer lies in how these banks make their money and how little of it trickles into productive enterprise.
Nigeria’s leading banks have swollen their balance sheets largely through asset revaluations, foreign currency adjustments, and customer deposits that sit idle or are channeled into risk-free government securities. What looks like growth on paper often reflects inflationary asset repricing, not expanded lending to manufacturers, agribusinesses, or small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
Three quarters of the industry’s celebrated “assets” are actually liabilities owed to the public. These are deposits that banks temporarily hold, not capital they generated or invested productively. This dependency on depositors’ funds reveals a system that looks rich in assets but is, in essence, shallow in innovation and weak in capital depth.
A banking system overly reliant on deposits is inherently fragile. Deposits are short term and confidence sensitive and can flee quickly during periods of policy uncertainty. Unlike equity or long term capital, they offer little cushion against shocks. This overdependence creates a false picture of liquidity but hides structural weakness. Nigeria’s banks may look stable, but their foundations are vulnerable, like a tower built on shifting sands of depositor confidence rather than the rock of sustainable capital formation.
Loans to the manufacturing and agricultural sectors remain a small fraction of total credit, while lending rates often hover above 27 percent. Many small businesses that form the backbone of job creation and innovation still cannot access affordable financing. Instead, banks have mastered the art of financial intermediation without real interconnection, mobilizing deposits but not transforming them into engines of growth.
This disconnect reveals a deeper issue with weak capital efficiency. In a healthy financial system, deposits are converted into productive loans that stimulate investment, create jobs, and boost exports. But in Nigeria, the ratio of bank loans to GDP remains among the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Banks appear more comfortable storing wealth than stimulating enterprise. Treasury bills and government bonds, with minimal risk and decent yields, have become the preferred playground for Nigeria’s banking giants. The result is a financial system that thrives on fiscal inertia rather than productive dynamism.
Contrast Nigeria’s sluggish growth with the dynamism in East Africa, where banks like Kenya’s Equity Group and KCB are expanding aggressively, driving credit to real sectors and supporting regional trade. East Africa now contributes 21 banks to Africa’s top 100, up from just 13 in 2022, reflecting genuine growth in financial inclusion and productive lending. While Nigeria’s banks chase continental rankings, Kenya’s and Rwanda’s banks are quietly fueling economic revolutions.
Nigeria’s exclusion from the IMF’s list of Africa’s fastest-growing economies is symbolic. It tells a story of a giant whose growth is increasingly superficial. The IMF praised countries like Rwanda and Benin for fiscal discipline, macroeconomic stability, and structural reforms, as these are all areas where Nigeria continues to struggle. Despite policy adjustments and modest improvements in non-oil sectors, Nigeria’s economy remains shackled by inflation, currency instability, and policy uncertainty. These same constraints discourage banks from taking real sector risks.
In effect, the financial system mirrors the broader economy and is large in size yet underperforming in substance. When banks announce trillion-naira asset bases, it makes for good headlines but poor development economics. The irony is that asset expansion without capital productivity is like pumping air into a balloon, which is impressive in size but fragile in substance.
While the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Governor, Yemi Cardoso, insists that the nation’s economic reforms are “yielding visible results” and placing the country “on the path to stability, inclusiveness, and innovation-driven growth,” evidence on the ground paints a more sobering picture. The CBN’s optimism, though politically convenient, contrasts sharply with the structural realities of Nigeria’s financial system and the broader economy.
If reforms were truly delivering inclusive and innovation driven growth, it would be reflected in stronger credit access, industrial productivity, and improved living standards, not just in favourable rhetoric at global meetings. Yet, Nigeria’s banking sector remains dominated by balance sheet expansion rather than productive lending. Three quarters of the industry’s celebrated “assets” are actually liabilities to public deposits temporarily held, not capital generated through innovation or investment in the real economy.
This disconnect between financial growth and real-sector development underscores a deeper fragility. Banks continue to rely heavily on short-term deposits while shying away from financing manufacturing, agriculture, and small enterprises with the engines of inclusive growth. The result is an economy where the numbers look impressive on paper, but households and industries still struggle with high borrowing costs, limited credit, and declining purchasing power.
Far from demonstrating reform-driven resilience, Nigeria’s economic structure remains hollow at the core of a system rich in nominal assets but poor in capital depth and innovation. Macroeconomic stability cannot be claimed when inflation hovers around 18.02 percent, foreign investment inflows stagnate, and job creation lags far behind population growth.
In essence, what the CBN presents as progress is, in many respects, statistically false if stability is achieved through monetary tightening and exchange rate adjustments rather than genuine economic transformation. Until reforms translate into tangible outcomes of affordable credit, industrial renewal, and sustainable job creation, the claims of inclusiveness and innovation-driven growth will remain more aspirational than real.
For Nigeria’s regulators, analysts, and policymakers, the question is no longer how large the banks’ assets appear, but what those assets are doing for the economy. True strength must come from innovation in financial intermediation, capital efficiency, and credit diversification; support for real sector growth; and regional competitiveness on the African and global stage.
For Nigerian banks to translate asset expansion into real economic impact, the next frontier must be purposeful intermediation, where financial growth feeds productive enterprise, not just paper wealth. That begins with rethinking the credit model by lending based on business potential and cash flow viability, not just collateral. By partnering with fintechs and development institutions, banks can use data driven credit assessments to reach small manufacturers, agribusinesses, and innovators who drive job creation.
Beyond lending, true strength will come from building deeper capital bases and reducing dependence on short-term deposits. Banks must raise long-term funds through bonds, equity, and partnerships with pension and insurance institutions so they can finance industrial and infrastructure projects sustainably. Regulators, too, must align incentives with development by rewarding banks that channel credit into productive sectors and penalizing those that merely recycle deposits into government securities.
Ultimately, Nigeria’s banking future depends on a mindset shift from comfort in liquidity to confidence in innovation. The country does not need banks that only count wealth but those that create it. When balance sheet expansion begins to translate into accessible credit, inclusive growth, and industrial renewal, Nigeria’s banks will cease to be symbols of inflated success and become true instruments of national transformation.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]


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E-Financial

IMF Warns of New Risks for Monetary Policy over $59Bn Crypto Inflows into Nigeria

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the rapid expansion of stablecoin usage in Nigeria could significantly weaken demand for the naira and reduce the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy.

IMF Warns of New Risks for Monetary Policy over $59Bn Crypto Inflows into Nigeria

This is coming as the country recorded about $59 billion in crypto-asset inflows between July 2023 and June 2024.

The IMF said in it’s report titled “Stablecoins in Nigeria: A Growing Cross-Border Channel,” that the growing adoption of dollar-pegged digital assets for payments, remittances, and savings reflects deeper macroeconomic pressures in Nigeria, including elevated inflation, foreign exchange scarcity, and persistent currency depreciation.

According to the Fund, these conditions have increased the attractiveness of stablecoins as both a store of value and a medium of exchange, particularly among individuals and businesses seeking stability amid exchange rate volatility.

The IMF warned that the widespread use of U.S. dollar-denominated stablecoins effectively represents a form of “digital dollarisation,” which could erode demand for the naira and weaken the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) ability to transmit monetary policy through interest rates and exchange rate interventions.

Nigeria remains one of the world’s most active digital asset markets, ranking second globally in Chainalysis’ 2024 Global Crypto Adoption Index and sixth in the 2025 edition.

The IMF further noted that the country accounts for nearly 60 per cent of stablecoin inflows into sub-Saharan Africa since 2019, underscoring its dominant role in regional crypto activity.

The report also highlighted the appeal of stablecoins in reducing transaction costs and improving the speed of cross-border payments.

However, the IMF cautioned that the increasing shift of payment activity from traditional banking systems to crypto exchanges and digital wallets may create regulatory blind spots.

It warned that such developments could complicate the monitoring of capital flows and increase exposure to illicit financial risks, including money laundering.

Despite these concerns, the Fund did not advocate restrictive measures. Instead, it called for a balanced policy approach that addresses the structural drivers of stablecoin adoption while strengthening oversight frameworks.

Key recommendations include maintaining macroeconomic stability to support the naira, enhancing regulatory clarity for stablecoin-related activities, and strengthening coordination between the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The IMF also urged improved transaction data collection through blockchain analytics and continued investment in efficient, regulated payment infrastructure.

The Fund noted that stablecoin growth is largely driven by inefficiencies in cross-border payment systems, stressing that policy efforts should focus on narrowing these gaps while ensuring emerging risks remain effectively contained.

 

 


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AI-Powered Loan Recovery Pilot Rakes in N69m for VeendHQ 

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VeendHQ has said that its AI-powered credit platform, Vida AI, helped recover N69 million from a N172.5 million portfolio of loans that were more than 90 days overdue, in a pilot that highlights the growing role of technology in loan recovery and portfolio management.

AI-Powered Loan Recovery Pilot Rakes in N69m for VeendHQ 

The result comes at a time when lenders are under increasing pressure to improve recovery outcomes while managing the cost, reputational risk, and operational burden associated with overdue loans.

For many credit providers, the challenge is no longer only how quickly loans can be approved, but how effectively repayment can be monitored and delinquent loans can be recovered after disbursement.

According to VeendHQ, the pilot delivered a 40 percent recovery rate on the overdue loan portfolio.

The company said the result significantly outperformed traditional recovery benchmarks, where a five percent recovery rate on a similar loan book would amount to about N8.6 million.

VeendHQ said the pilot demonstrates how Vida AI can support lenders beyond credit assessment, extending into repayment monitoring, collections, and recovery.

“Credit access is only one side of lending. The bigger challenge for many lenders is what happens after disbursement,” said Olufemi Olanipekun, co-founder and CEO of VeendHQ.

“Vida AI helps lenders make smarter decisions across the credit lifecycle, from approval to repayment and recovery.”

VeendHQ, a Nigerian fintech company building digital credit infrastructure, developed Vida AI as an artificial intelligence-powered platform for lenders, merchants, and financial institutions.

The platform supports credit assessment, identity verification, repayment collections, and loan management workflows.

With the recovery pilot, the company is positioning Vida AI beyond loan origination, as a tool for lenders seeking to improve repayment performance and manage overdue portfolios more efficiently.

Delinquent loans remain a major cash-flow challenge for lenders.

Once loans exceed 60 to 90 days past due, recovery becomes more difficult, expensive, and unpredictable. Traditional approaches such as manual calls, recovery agents, and legal escalation often increase costs without significantly improving recovery rates.

VeendHQ said Vida AI’s recovery workflow enables lenders to upload overdue loan records, verify borrower information, assess repayment capacity, and trigger automated recovery actions.

This gives lenders better visibility after disbursement and allows recovery teams to prioritize overdue portfolios more effectively.

“If lenders cannot recover efficiently, they become more conservative with lending. That affects consumers, small businesses, and the wider credit market,” Olanipekun said.

“Better recovery infrastructure gives lenders more confidence to lend, manage risk, and keep credit flowing.”

The company said the recovery use case is especially relevant for banks, microfinance institutions, digital lenders, cooperatives, and merchants managing loans that are 60 to 180 days past due.

It added that it plans to deepen Vida AI’s recovery capabilities for credit providers seeking to improve recovery performance without relying solely on manual methods.

“As lending expands across Nigeria and Africa, recovery infrastructure is becoming as critical as origination,” Olanipekun said. “Tools that improve both will define which lenders can scale sustainably.”

The pilot, VeendHQ says, points to a broader shift in the credit market: approval speed alone is no longer enough. Increasingly, lenders will be defined by how effectively they monitor repayment, recover overdue loans, and manage portfolio risk over time.

 

 


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CBN Orders Banks, Fintechs to Host Payment Data Locally

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The Central Bank of Nigeria has directed banks, fintech firms, and other payment service providers to store payment transaction data generated within the country on local servers from January 1, 2027, as part of new measures to strengthen oversight of the fast-growing digital payments ecosystem.

CBN Orders Banks, Fintechs to Host Payment Data Locally

 

The directive was contained in a circular issued by the Payments System Supervision Department of the CBN on Monday and addressed to deposit money banks, microfinance banks, mobile money operators, switching and processing companies, payment terminal service providers, payment solution service providers, super agents and other licensed operators in the payments industry.

The circular, signed by the Director of the Payments System Supervision Department, Rakiya Yusuf, also introduced new market structure rules, beneficial ownership disclosure requirements and systemic oversight measures for payment service operators.

According to the apex bank, the reforms became necessary following the rapid expansion of electronic payments and digital financial services across the country.

The CBN said it had observed “significant structural developments within the Nigerian Payments ecosystem, characterised by rapid growth in electronic payments, increasing adoption of digital financial services, and the emergence of operators with substantial market presence across key payment activities.”

It noted that while the growth had improved innovation, efficiency and financial inclusion, it had also created concerns around market concentration, operational dependence, ownership transparency and the storage of critical payments data.

To address these concerns, the regulator ordered all financial institutions facilitating payments in Nigeria to ensure that transaction data generated within the country are stored domestically.

The circular stated, “All Financial Institutions and participants facilitating payments within Nigeria shall ensure that payments transaction data generated within Nigeria are stored and managed in Nigeria in accordance with data protection laws and regulations applicable in Nigeria.”

It added that “all affected Financial Institutions shall fully comply with this requirement effective January 1, 2027.”

The move is expected to strengthen regulatory oversight, enhance data sovereignty and ensure that sensitive payment information remains within Nigeria’s jurisdiction.

It also aligns with broader efforts by regulators globally to localise critical financial data and reduce reliance on offshore infrastructure.

Beyond data localisation, the CBN ordered banks, payment service providers and other financial institutions with digital payment operations to disclose the ultimate beneficial ownership of significant shareholders.

According to the circular, institutions must maintain accurate and up-to-date records of their ultimate beneficial owners and make such information available to the apex bank upon request.

The regulator said the disclosure requirement must comply with existing anti-money laundering, counter-terrorism financing and counter-proliferation financing regulations.

The directive builds on previous CBN efforts to strengthen beneficial ownership transparency as part of wider measures to combat money laundering and illicit financial flows in the financial system.

The central bank also introduced fresh competition rules aimed at limiting excessive market dominance in the payments industry.

Under the new framework, any financial institution that controls more than 25 per cent of the card-issuing market in a rolling 12-month period will not be allowed to hold more than 15 per cent of the merchant-acquiring market during the same period.

Similarly, operators with more than 25 per cent market share in merchant acquiring activities will be restricted to a maximum of 15 per cent market share in card issuing activities.

Merchant acquiring refers to processing card payments on behalf of merchants, while card issuing involves providing payment cards to customers.

The CBN said all regulated entities would be required to submit monthly market share returns based on prescribed templates and timelines.

It further directed affected institutions to take the necessary measures to achieve full compliance with the market structure requirements by December 31, 2026.

The apex bank said the new measures were designed to “improve transparency through beneficial ownership disclosure, address concentration risk, promote a fair, competitive, and resilient payments ecosystem.”

According to the regulator, the reforms are also intended to “safeguard the integrity of the Nigerian payments system and ensure the localisation of payments transaction data within Nigeria.”

The CBN warned that it would closely monitor compliance and impose sanctions where necessary.

“The CBN shall monitor compliance with the provisions of this Circular and may, where necessary, impose supervisory sanctions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and guidelines,” the circular stated.

The latest directive comes amid a rapid expansion of Nigeria’s digital payments industry, with electronic transactions reaching record levels and regulators increasing oversight of banks, fintech firms and other payment operators to address operational, cybersecurity and systemic risks.


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