E-Financial
Sad! Value of Naira Determined by Forex ‘Black’ Market- Otunuga

An economic research analyst has bemoaned the inability of the Central Bank of Nigeria to contain the free fall of the Naira in the currency market.
Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at Forex Time (FXTM) said that the economic disequilibrium has left naira’s value to be determined by the ‘black market’ foreign exchange market.
Otunuga who spoke during an exclusive with Nigeria CommunicationsWeek said that the CBN must realize that foreign investors and indeed the world are “watching Nigeria’s economy like movie series”.
A keen follower of macroeconomic events, with a strong professional and academic background in finance, Lukman is well versed in the various factors affecting the currency and commodity markets. Lukman provides in-depth analysis on the global currency and commodity markets and is often quoted by leading international media outlets such as: MarketWatch, CNBC, NASDAQ, Reuters, AFP, The Guardian and Yahoo.
Prior to joining FXTM, Lukman spent two years as a research analyst with international currency broker FXCM, where he focused on technical and fundamental analysis of the global currency, commodity and stock markets. Lukman was also responsible for leading educational seminars for international and local high net worth individuals, and has published a series of educational articles on forex trading with City A.M.
Lukman holds a BSc (hons) degree in Economics from the University of Essex, UK and an MSc in Finance from London School of Business and Finance, where he studied corporate finance, mergers & acquisitions and the role of international financial institutions. He spoke to peter oluka. Excerpt.
Predictions About Nigeria’s Economy 2017
“First, the world is actually watching Nigeria’s economy and issues like series. Right now, everybody knows that Nigeria is under pressure. Last year we spoke about the economy and I said diversification will be the key. This year the focus is on getting the economy out of recession. So, the emphasis is now on policies. I feel that in the next six months Nigeria will remain at risk because of obvious factors like investments from China. When China sneezes Nigeria catches cold. Donald Trump’s policies will have impact in Nigeria. I read in the newspaper that he is already considering limiting the number of visa issuance to the country (Nigeria).
“These are external factors. Internally, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will be under pressure. They have actually kept the monitory policy interest rate at 14%. The truth is they are under pressure which is the reason they are under conscious approach. Even though the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank gave Nigeria’s economy a positive outlook for the year 2017; to get out of recession, I don’t think it will be that easy.
New Approaches CBN Should Adopt
“On the physical side of the economy there is no clear direction. Everybody is waiting to see what will happen. This speaks on the fact the World Development Bank (WDB) has kept Nigeria from the $1billion loan, because there is no transparency or clear direction on how it will be utilized. But on monetary side, I think Nigeria may be forced to devalue the Nigeria.
“The official rate is about N305 to $1, but they may take it to N380 to close the gap with the black market.
Manufacturers, Industries Should Be Given Priority In Forex Disbursement
“It is very interest to bring in the manufacturing sector in here, because the CBN has allocated about 60% of the forex to them as they represent about 10% of the GDP. Nigeria’s problem is cost caused inflation. Let me break it down. We have a situation where manufacturers imports raw materials but do not have access to the official forex rate. Of course, they need profit, so they push the cost to the consumers. It keeps circulating and should be checkmate to avoid hyper-inflation.
Oil and Gas
“Nigeria plans to diversity on long term, but in the short term it is still about oil. And OPEC gave Nigeria a very good trust to make comeback if she (Nigeria) can still produce about 2.2million barrels per day. But if you consider the militancy in the Niger-Delta, last December, the country was producing 1.4million barrels per day. So, we have a situation here that even as OPEC is magnanimous to the country by taking a supply cut, still Nigeria may not be able to take the advantage. I don’t even know how Nigeria will get to 2million barrels per day from the present output should the militancy continues.
Trump’s Policies, China and Nigeria
“The main thrust of Donald Trump’s government is protectionism- the Americans first, which is de-globalisation. So, we have a situation where all the countries that had access to United States will lose such opportunities. They need to approach the alternative, which is China, the second strongest economy in the world. How will it impact Africa? Nigeria? Of course, if you look at China it is giving and getting a lot from Nigeria.
“So, when China gains it is to the advantage of Nigeria. Trump has already abolished the TPP; which is just a way to remove trade from China. This could be a situation where Africa comes back (up); where other nations measure up by taking critical decisions.
Leveraging Nigeria- China Trade Agreement on Yuan
“I still think that agreement is valid, although there are concerns that China is facing pressures, but we have to keep in mind that what Nigeria needs now is not to make the dollar king. Dollar is not the legal tender in this country but a typical Nigerian would prefer to have dollar to Naira; that speaks volume. Therefore, we do a lot of businesses with China and it will do us good to dust up that agreement.
Why FDI Is Eluding Nigeria
“First, let’s refer to how Fietch downgraded Nigeria’s long term rating to negatives. Initially, that will discourage foreign investors. I understand that in March Nigeria is trying to get the $1B Euro-bond. This news of Fietch turning Nigeria’s rating down will affect the Euro-bond. First, Nigeria should establish foreign exchange rate stability. No body wants to invest in a speculative environment.
Bridging CBN and Black Market Forex Rates: How Possible?
“The CBN needs to understand the bitter truth: value of the Naira is determined by the (forex) black market. Some people has said that the fundamentals behind the black market do not make sense, but it is simply the principle of demand and supply that makes the market what it is. Now, we are talking about N500 to $1; that is the true value of the Naira.
The quicker the CBN understands the truth and actually allow the Naira have a free flow; otherwise inflation will continue to skyrocket. If they do that, it is going to be a short term pain but will be beneficial at the end.
Late Passage of the Appropriation Bill (Budget) And Impact On Economy
“For certainty this has huge impact on the economy. For instance the 2016 budget was released about five months later. It causes uncertainties in the economy, because it shows there is no transparency. Uncertainty will also cause people to offload the Naira.
Economic Diversification
“The more I look at agriculture I see that even though God Blessed Nigeria with oil, but it has been a curse on the economy. This wasn’t the situation in the 60s’ and 70s’. So, we really need to embrace agriculture and develop the infrastructure. Power is very much in demand. No economy performs better than it is doing in power generation. We need to fix the roads and other amenities, having in mind that technology is the way to go too.
“Take a leaf from the United States where Dollar has appreciated so much just because the new administration sad they are going to be focusing on the physical side- massive infrastructure development. This is what Nigeria needs to do.
E-Financial
Ecobank Profit Jumps 29 Percent to N950Bn

Ecobank Transnational Incorporated has reported a 29 per cent rise in profit after tax to N950.0bn for the financial year ended December 31, 2025, driven by growth in interest income and non-interest revenue.

This was indicated in the Condensed Consolidated Unaudited Financial Statements for the year ended December 2025 filed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited on Friday.
According to the report, the pan-African banking group’s gross earnings rose 14 per cent to N4.82tn, while total revenue increased 18 per cent to N3.67tn.
Profit before tax climbed 30 per cent to N1.28tn, up from N986.7bn in 2024. Operating profit before impairment charges rose 29 per cent to N1.89tn.
In the period under review, net interest income grew 22 per cent year on year to N2.14tn, supported by a 15 per cent increase in interest income to N3.18tn.
Interest expense rose modestly by four per cent to N1.04tn.
Non-interest revenue also strengthened, rising 13 per cent to N1.53tn, buoyed by a 17 per cent increase in fee and commission income to N1.03tn, and a 14 per cent growth in trading income and foreign exchange gains to N559.36bn.
However, other operating income declined 22 per cent to N68.6bn, while net losses on investment securities widened to N10.98bn.
Impairment charges on financial assets rose 28 per cent to N613.26bn, reflecting higher credit risk provisioning during the period.
Despite this, operating profit after impairment increased 30 per cent to N1.28tn.
Total profit stood at N950.0bn, compared to N735.9bn in 2024. Total assets expanded 14 per cent to N49.44tn, up from N43.30tn in 2024.
Loans and advances to customers increased 11 per cent to N17.09tn, while deposits from customers rose 15 per cent to N36.45tn, reinforcing the bank’s funding base. Total equity strengthened significantly, rising 50 per cent to N4.17tn, driven largely by retained earnings growth.
Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders stood at N2.91tn, up from N1.75tn. Total liabilities increased to N45.27tn, from N40.52tn in the previous year.
Ecobank operates in 34 African countries and several international financial centres, serving more than 32 million customers across consumer, commercial, corporate, and investment banking segments.
E-Financial
Incentives alone won’t win over Africa’s next billion fintech users — Kuda MFB MD

African fintechs hoping to sign up the continent’s next billion users will need to rethink the industry’s long-running growth playbook, according to Musty Mustapha, Managing Director of Kuda Microfinance Bank, who says cashbacks and incentives may drive downloads but rarely help build sustainable businesses.

Kuda MFB MD
Speaking at a fintech panel discussion on scaling digital financial services across Africa at Tech Revolution Africa, a gathering of tech leaders, investors, operators, and professionals which was held at Landmark Event Center on January 31, 2026, Mustapha objected to what he described as the “growth at all costs” culture which has defined much of African fintech so far. While incentives can quickly inflate user numbers, he said they often fail to create the kind of trust and consistent usage that keeps customers long term.
“It is easy to buy users,” he said. “But if you grow without creating real value, you’re only solving for today’s numbers and ignoring whether the business survives tomorrow.”
His comments come at a time when many startups are under pressure to demonstrate stronger unit economics as venture funding tightens and investors shift attention from rapid acquisition to profitability and retention. In that environment, Mustapha argues that reliability, not marketing spend, will determine which fintechs endure.
Contrary to common assumptions, he said African consumers are not resistant to technology but cautious, shaped by years of unreliable services and weak infrastructure. Products that work seamlessly elsewhere often struggle locally because they fail to account for that trust deficit.
“They’re not digitally naïve,” he said. “They’ve just operated in low-trust environments. If something fails even once or twice, you lose them.”
That focus on trust has influenced how Kuda Microfinance Bank has approached its growth. Launched in 2019 as a digital-first bank, it expanded from roughly 100,000 customers within its first year to nearly 300,000 the next, before surging past 2 million customers in 2021. Today, the microfinance bank serves more than 7 million Nigerians, Mustapha said, describing the journey as less predictable than the numbers suggest.
“The reality is, you can’t forecast scale neatly,” he said. “You can wake up and suddenly have a huge spike in users. If your systems and people aren’t ready, you crumble.”
In his view, the strain on a fintech typically shows up first behind the scenes, not on its app. As volume increases, back-office functions such as reconciliation, chargebacks and customer support can quickly become chokepoints, eroding the trust that fintechs are trying to build. Founders, he said, often underestimate these operational demands in the early days while prioritising product development.
“Anything you don’t pay attention to in your first six months will come back to hurt you at scale,” he said.
External constraints add more complexity. Payment rails, power supply, and connectivity remain outside the control of most fintechs, making outages and delays inevitable. Rather than trying to outspend those limitations, Mustapha said companies must design around them by building redundancies and multiple pathways for critical services.
“You don’t assume perfection,” he said. “If one channel fails, there must be another. That’s how you stay reliable.”
As traditional banks, telcos, and startups increasingly compete for the same mass-market customers, Mustapha expects the winners to combine the strengths of each group — the capital base of banks, the distribution reach of telcos, and the speed of fintechs. But regardless of the model that dominates, he believes the fundamentals will remain the same.
For millions of first-time or underserved users, the deciding factor is simple: whether the service works every time.
“There’s this idea that the average customer can’t use sophisticated products,” he said. “That’s not the issue. What they want is something they can trust.”
As fintech chases its next phase of growth, trust, rather than incentives, may prove to be the sector’s most valuable currency.
E-Financial
Majority of Nigerians do not Trust Govt with Tax Revenue – SBM

Majority Nigerians do not trust the government to properly utilise their tax payments for good use, according to a survey by SBM Intelligence across nine cities.

The survey highlighted why recent tax reforms have triggered widespread anxiety and resistance.
“Survey data from 200 respondents across nine cities indicate that 68.5 percent of Nigerians completely distrust the government’s use of tax revenues, whereas only 27.5 percent view the reforms as beneficial to the country, ” SBM intelligence said in its recent report titled Taxing Patience.
Nigeria’s 2025 Tax Reform Acts took effect in January, introducing the most comprehensive overhaul of the tax framework in decades. The reform has created more awareness among Nigerians than ever before, increasing their further distrust in the government’s use of tax revenues.
The distrust reflects years of poor service delivery and weak accountability, shaping public doubt toward the new tax system despite assurances that the reforms are designed to ease burdens and improve fairness.
“In the past, people avoided tax because they felt the government wouldn’t provide basic amenities,” businessday quoted Okanlawon Hakeem, a Lagos-based businessman, as saying.
“You drill boreholes yourself, pay for public transport yourself, and sometimes fix your local road yourself. So, you ask yourself what the government is doing with the tax money.”
The SBM Intelligence report noted that access to reliable electricity, improved security and better roads were the clearest signals that would make tax compliance worthwhile.
“46 percent of participants identified improvements in roads and security as their primary motivation for tax compliance,” SBM Intelligence noted, explaining that service delivery, rather than enforcement alone, is likely to shape taxpayer behaviour.
Government officials have defended the changes as necessary to improve public finances and reduce Nigeria’s dependence on oil revenue, pointing to the country’s historically low tax-to-GDP ratio.
With a tax-to-GDP ratio of less than 10 percent, Nigeria has lagged behind regional peers such as Ghana and Kenya. Taiwo Oyedele, chairman presidential fiscal policy and tax committee, hopes the reforms will lift the ratio toward 18 percent over the medium term.
Public sentiment, however, has not moved in step with these fiscal ambitions. According to the report, only 27.5 percent of people believe that the new tax laws are good for the country.
The report also suggests that greater awareness of the reforms often coincides with stronger skepticism rather than acceptance.
Distrust cuts across regions and occupations but is especially pronounced in major commercial centres.
The report mentioned that people in Lagos and parts of the Northeast have the strongest resistance and protest sentiment, reflecting concerns about enforcement, fairness and legislative integrity.
In its Year Ahead 2026 outlook, SBM Intelligence projects that protests are likely as the real impact of the new framework becomes clearer. The report points to the June 2024 youth-led protests in Kenya, which resulted in a reversal of the policy.
In Nigeria, where inflation is only just beginning to show signs of easing, the tolerance for perceived government excesses, including lavish convoys and budget padding, is at an all-time low.
Business owners, traders and informal workers expressed particular unease, fearing the reforms could deepen the problem of double taxation. Many worry that government levies will exist alongside rather than replace the fees already collected by unions and non-state actors.
“ Nearly a third of business respondents said they expect to pay both official taxes and union fees,” the report stated.
For informal workers such as market traders, drivers and artisans, this fear is grounded in experience. Many already make daily payments to unions or associations, often under pressure.
Without a clear plan to eliminate these parallel charges, new government taxes are widely viewed as an additional burden rather than a simplification of the system.
In Lagos, Kano and Onitsha, constant electricity emerged as the strongest trigger for compliance. In Abuja, Port Harcourt and Bauchi, respondents prioritized roads and security. Across cities, the message was consistent: willingness to pay is conditional on visible outcomes.
Analysts warn that without clear improvements in service delivery, stronger enforcement could harden resistance rather than improve compliance.
The report stated that without rapid, visible improvements in public services, the government risks collecting more money while winning.
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