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Smartphone Volumes Poised to Return to Growth in 2019- IDC

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The International Data Corporation (IDC) believes that Smartphone market will experience low single-digit growth from 2019 through the end of its forecast in 2022 after expectations of decline in 2018.

 

The International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecasts worldwide smartphone shipments to decline 0.7% in 2018 to 1.455 billion units, down from 1.465 billion in 2017.

 

However, IDC believes the market will return to positive growth in the second half of 2018 with volumes up 1.1% compared to the second half of 2017.

 

In the long-term forecast, IDC expects the overall smartphone market to reach 1.646 billion units shipped in 2022.

 

Overall, the global smartphone market is healthy and has plenty of upside, which is noted by the return to growth in the forecast.

 

When breaking down the growth by device type, it is clear that large-screen smartphones (5.5 inch and larger) will lead the charge with volumes of 941.6 million in 2018, accounting for 64.7% of all smartphones, up from 623.2 million units in 2017 and 42.5% share.

 

By 2022, shipments of these larger screen smartphones will jump to 1.391 billion units, or 84.5% of overall shipment volume.

 

The industry is experiencing a shift toward higher aspect ratios, at or near 18:9, which require a larger screen to support the widescreen viewing angle.

 

While the 18:x aspect ratio started with flagship and higher-end devices in 2017, it began to appear in lower-priced devices in 2018, including some sub-$200 handsets.

 

By Q2 2018, 16:9 smartphones were overtaken by 17.5:9 aspect ratios (or higher) for the first time.

 

As Chinese brands, such as Huawei, OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi, expand their international presence, it is likely the focus on large screens and aspect ratios will remain a focus across their entire portfolio.

 

The anticipation of the new iPhone models this fall, two of which IDC believes will be above 6 inches and available for shipment in the second half of 2018, will act as another catalyst toward driving these important display trends.

 

Melissa Chau, associate research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers, said “With two out of three new iPhones expected to be larger than 6 inches, Apple will not be left behind in the 2018 race for increased screen real estate.

 

“You could say the term ‘phablet’ is becoming less relevant now that most smartphones will ship with larger screens, and when folding screens start coming into play in the medium term, this screen trend will evolve in new directions.”

 

From a geographic perspective, the China market is finally showing signs of recovery and while IDC still expects the largest market in the world to be down 6.3% in 2018 (slightly worse than the 2017 downturn), that is mainly attributed to an extremely poor first half, which saw smartphone volumes down 11%.

 

The second half is expected to improve to a decline of 2% before returning to positive growth in 2019.

 

Asia/Pacific as a region still holds plenty of market growth led by India and Indonesia, which are expected to grow shipments in 2018 by 14.4% and 15.4% respectively.

 

Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, said “We still believe the smartphone market has some healthy growth in the years to come, although finding and competing in those markets and segments is increasingly more challenging.

 

“With the US-China trade tariffs changing and unfolding daily it is hard to pinpoint what the exact impact on the market will be, but for the time being OEMs are pushing forward with important initiatives that include the previously mentioned traction around bigger and better displays.

 

“But the industry also has 5G knocking at its doors, and many OEMs, retailers, telcos, and supply chain partners will be working diligently to ensure consumers see the need to upgrade when products and services are readily available.”

 

Platform Highlights shows that Android’s smartphone share will hover around 85% share throughout the forecast.

 

Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.4%, with shipments approaching 1.41 billion in 2022.

 

Among the more interesting trends happening with Android shipments is that average selling prices (ASPs) are growing at a double-digit pace.

 

IDC expects Android ASPs to grow 11.4% in 2018 to $262, up from $235 in 2017. IDC expects this upward trajectory to continue through the forecast, but at a more tempered low single-digit rate from 2019 and beyond.

 

This is a sign of many OEMs slowly migrating their user base upstream to the slightly more expensive handsets.

 

Overall this is a positive sign that consumers are seeing the benefits of moving to a slightly more premium device than they likely previously owned.

 

The broad range of colors, screen sizes, features, and brands are a large catalyst for this movement.

 

iOS: iPhone volumes are expected to grow by 2.1% in 2018 to 220.4 million in total.

 

IDC is forecasting iPhones to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.0%, reaching volumes of 238.5 million by 2022.

 

With larger screen iOS smartphones coming up for launch in the second half of 2018, IDC has shifted greater volumes into the 6-inch to sub-7-inch screen size forecast for iOS.

 

Products are on schedule to begin shipping in the third quarter and ramping up into the fourth quarter of 2018, with volumes growing to account for half of all iPhones shipped by 2022.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

Telecom

AMN Activates Starlink Cellular Backhaul Connectivity in Nigeria

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Africa Mobile Networks Group (AMN) has said that its first of its base stations in Nigeria to connect to SpaceX’s Starlink constellation is now live and using the LEO satellite network for backhaul connectivity.

AMN Activates Starlink Cellular Backhaul Connectivity in Nigeria

It’s the first AMN base station to connect to Starlink since AMN and SpaceX signed a commercial deal in July 2023 to use Starlink for remote base station backhaul connectivity across Africa.

AMN said in a statement that Starlink’s low-latency connectivity enables its multi-carrier RANs to sustainably provide 2G, 3G and 4G services in remote, rural areas of Nigeria. AMN also said it also paves the way for the launch of 5G services, which AMN plans to do before the end of this year.

AMN, which builds, owns, operates and maintains mobile network infrastructure for African mobile network operators, currently operates 1,600 base stations across Nigeria.

The company said it will continue to install new sites throughout 2024 in Nigeria, as well as Democratic Republic of the Congo, Cameroon, Madagascar, Cote d’Ivoire, Benin and Rwanda. AMN also has operations in Bissau, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Sudan, and Zambia.

Starlink has been commercially available to consumers and enterprise customers since January 2023. Last week, according to a report from Nairametrics, Starlink slashed the price of its internet router by 45%, although its monthly subscription rate remains unchanged. No reason was given, but the report suggests the move may be related to the naira’s recent appreciation against the US dollar and other foreign currencies.

According to figures from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), Starlink had over 11,200 subscribers in the country as of the third quarter of 2023 – which also makes it one of the top ISPs in Nigeria, the report said.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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FG Plans EO to Criminalise Fiber Cable Damage Costing Telcos Billions

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Nigeria will criminalize the destruction of broadband fiber cables following repeated complaints by MTN Nigeria Communications Plc and other telecommunications companies that they are losing billions of naira, according to people familiar with the matter.

FG Plans EO to Criminalise Fiber Cable Damage Costing Telcos Billions

Federal ministry of works, which supervises federal road constructors, is finalizing the regulation that will be signed as an executive order by President Bola Tinubu, said the people, asking not to be identified as they weren’t authorized to comment.

While there are presently laws against vandalism, the authorities are aiming to regulate construction firms more closely.

The order will enforce stiff penalties on offenders, said the people, declining to provide more details or say when it will be signed.

“Telecom assets are critical backbone that supports the economy across sectors,” said Temitope Ajayi, a senior presidential aide, who noted that the Association of Telecommunications Companies (ATCON) has been demanding the classification for years.

New rules will provide “further assurance that the Nigerian government will protect their investments against vandals and criminal elements.”

The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) estimates that the sector will make up more than a fifth of the country’s gross domestic product by the end of 2027, up from 13.5% in the third quarter of last year.

The move will help alleviate pressure on the telecoms sector, which is facing increased operating costs and sales pressures from a sharp depreciation in the currency and a threefold increase in energy prices.

Repairs and revenue losses from damaged cables is estimated to have cost the sector almost 27 billion naira ($23 million) last year alone, documents seen by Bloomberg show.

MTN Nigeria, the biggest wireless operator in Africa’s most-populous nation, and Airtel Africa Plc bore the brunt of the costs, the documents show.

MTN suffered more than 6,000 cuts on its fiber cable last year, the documents show. On Feb. 28, a cut on its network in three different locations by a road construction firm, an oil serving company and someone burning rubbish in a manhole meant customers faced more than five hours of data and voice outages.

The operator relocated 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles) of vulnerable fiber cables between 2022 and 2023, at a cost of more than 11 billion naira – enough to build 870 kilometers of new fiber lines to areas without coverage.

A presidential order on the matter would be welcomed, said Tony Izuagbe Emoekpere, president, Association of Telecommunications Companies of Nigeria.

“When it comes to communication infrastructure, they are destroyed at will, so we are eagerly awaiting the president’s order,” he said. “It would be a great boost to the industry, and it will also encourage investment.”

 

 


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Telecom

Telegram Eyes 1Bn Users amidst Political Pressures

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Telegram, the messaging giant founded by Pavel Durov and headquartered in Dubai, anticipates hitting a remarkable milestone of one billion active monthly users within the next year.

Durov’s departure from Russia in 2014, prompted by governmental pressures to stifle opposition communities on his VK social media platform, underscores Telegram’s commitment to neutrality despite geopolitical challenges.

With 900 million active users currently, Telegram stands as a beacon of free speech in the digital realm, particularly influential in former Soviet Union republics and pivotal during conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine standoff.

Durov’s staunch advocacy for freedom of expression and opposition to censorship by tech giants like Apple and Google reinforces Telegram’s status as a neutral platform.

Opting for the UAE as its base, Durov cites its neutrality and openness as conducive to Telegram’s ethos, serving both opposition groups and governments alike while maintaining impartiality.

In Durov’s vision, the pursuit of freedom eclipses material gain, shaping Telegram’s trajectory as a bastion of digital liberation.

 

 


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