E-Financial
Systemically Weak Banks Put Nigeria’s $1Trillion Ambition at Risk
By Blaise Udunze
Nigeria’s banking sector has just undergone one of its most ambitious recapitalisation exercises in two decades, all thanks to the Central Bank of Nigeria under the leadership of Olayemi Cardoso.
About N4.65 trillion ($3.38) has been raised. Balance sheets have been strengthened, at least the improvement could be said to exist in reports or accounting figures.
Regulators have drawn a new line in the sand, proposing N500 billion for international banks, N200 billion for national banks, and N50 billion for regional players. This is a bold reset.
Meanwhile, as the dust settles, an uncomfortable question refuses to go away, which has been in the minds of many asking, “Has Nigeria once again solved yesterday’s problem, while tomorrow’s risks gather quietly ahead?”
At a period when banks globally are being tested against tougher buffers, cross-border shocks, and higher regulatory expectations, Nigeria’s revised benchmarks risk falling short of what the global system demands.
In a world where scale, resilience, and competitiveness define banking credibility, capital is not measured in isolation; it is judged relative to peers, risks, and ambition.
Because when placed side by side with a far more unsettling reality, that a single South African bank, Standard Bank Group, rivals or even exceeds the valuation and asset strength of Nigeria’s entire banking sector, the celebration begins to feel premature.
The recapitalisation may be necessary. But is it sufficient? The numbers are not just striking, they are deeply revealing. Standard Bank Group, with a market valuation hovering around $21-22 billion and assets approaching $190 billion, stands as a continental giant. In contrast, the combined market capitalisation of Nigeria’s listed banks, even after recent capital raises, struggles to match that scale.
The combined value of the 13 listed Nigerian banks reached N16.14 trillion (11.9 billion) using N1.367/$1 in early April 2026, following the recapitalization momentum.
Even more revealing is the contrast at the top. Zenith Bank is valued at N4.7 trillion ($3.44 billion), Guaranty Trust Holding Company, widely admired for efficiency and profitability, is valued at under N4.6 trillion ($3.37 billion), while Access Holdings, despite managing tens of billions in assets, carries a market value below the upper Tier’s N1.4 trillion ($1.02 billion).
This is not merely a gap. It is a structural disconnect. And it raises a critical point, revealing that recapitalisation is not just about meeting regulatory thresholds; it is about closing credibility gaps.
With accounting figures or reports, Nigeria’s new capital thresholds appear formidable. But paper strength is not the same as real strength.
The naira’s persistent depreciation has quietly undermined the meaning of these figures. What looks like N500 billion in nominal terms translates into a much smaller and shrinking figure in dollar terms.
This is the misapprehension at the heart of Nigeria’s banking reform, as we are measuring financial strength in a currency that has been losing strength.
In real terms, some Nigerian banks today may not be significantly stronger than they were years ago, despite meeting much higher nominal thresholds. So while regulators see progress, global investors see vulnerability. Markets are rarely sentimental. They price risk with ruthless clarity.
The valuation gap between Nigerian banks and their South African counterparts is not an accident; it must be made known that it is strategic intentionality. By this, it truly reflects a deeper judgment about currency stability, regulatory predictability, governance standards, and long-term growth prospects. Investors are not just asking how much capital Nigerian banks have. They are asking how durable that capital is.
Even when Nigerian banks post strong profits, much of it has been driven by foreign exchange revaluation gains rather than core lending or operational efficiency. The CBN’s decision to restrict dividend payments from such gains is telling; it acknowledges that not all profits are created equal. True strength lies not in accounting gains, but in economic impact.
Nigeria has travelled this road before. Under Charles Soludo, the 2004-2006 banking consolidation raised minimum capital from N2 billion to N25 billion, reducing the number of banks dramatically and producing industry champions like Zenith Bank and United Bank for Africa. For a time, Nigerian banks expanded across Africa and became formidable competitors.
But the momentum did not last, emanating with lots of economic headwinds. One amongst all that played out was that the global financial crisis exposed weaknesses in governance and risk management, leading to another wave of reforms under Sanusi Lamido Sanusi. The lesson from that era remains clear, which revealed that capital reforms can stabilise a system, but they do not automatically transform it. Without bigger structural changes, the gains fade.
The real weakness of Nigeria’s current approach is not the size of the thresholds; it is their rigidity. Fixed capital requirements do not adjust for inflation, reflect currency depreciation, scale with systemic risk, or capture the complexity of modern banking.
In contrast, global regulatory frameworks are increasingly dynamic and risk-based. This is where Nigeria risks falling behind again. Because while the numbers have changed, the philosophy has not.
Nigeria’s economic aspirations are bold. The country speaks confidently about building a $1 trillion economy, expanding infrastructure, and driving industrialization, but in dollar terms, many Nigerian banks remain small, too small for the scale of ambition the country now proclaims. Albeit, it must be understood that ambition alone does not finance growth. Banks do.
And here lies the uncomfortable mismatch, which is contradictory in nature because the economy Nigeria wants to build is significantly larger than the banks it currently has.
In South Africa, what Nigerian stakeholders are yet to understand is that large, well-capitalised banks play a central role in financing infrastructure, corporate expansion, and consumer credit. Their scale allows them to absorb risk and deploy capital at levels Nigerian banks struggle to match. Without comparable financial depth, Nigeria’s development ambitions risk being constrained by its own banking system.
At its core, banking is about channeling capital into productive sectors, as this stands as one of its responsibilities if it truly wants to ever catch up to a $1 trillion economy. Yet Nigerian banks have increasingly, in their usual ways, leaned toward safer, short-term returns, particularly government securities. This is not irrational. It is a response to high credit risk, regulatory uncertainty, and macroeconomic instability.
But it comes at a cost. Yes! The fact is that when banks prioritise safety over lending, the real economy suffers. What this tells us is that manufacturing, agriculture, and small businesses remain underfunded, limiting growth and job creation.
Recapitalisation is meant to change this dynamic. Stronger capital buffers should enable banks to take on more risk and finance larger projects. But capital alone will not solve the problem. Confidence will.
One of the most persistent obstacles facing Nigerian banks is currency volatility. Each major devaluation of the naira erodes investor returns and reduces the dollar value of bank capital. This creates a contradiction whereby banks appear profitable in naira terms, but unattractive in global markets.
In contrast, South Africa benefits from a more stable currency environment and deeper capital markets. Without much ado, it is clear that this stability attracts long-term institutional investors that Nigeria struggles to retain. Until this macroeconomic challenge is addressed, recapitalisation alone cannot close the gap because without making it a priority, even the strongest banks will remain constrained.
In a global competitive financial market, one would agree that capital is necessary, but not sufficient. Beyond the capital, one crucial lesson stakeholders in Nigeria’s banking space must understand is that investors’ confidence is heavily influenced by governance standards and operational efficiency, which mainly guarantee more success and capability. Also, another relevant trait to sustainable banking is transparency, regulatory consistency, and accountability, which matter as much as balance sheet strength.
While Nigerian banks have made progress, lingering concerns remain around insider lending, regulatory unpredictability, and complex ownership structures. If policymakers revisit and reflect on the episodes involving institutions like First Bank of Nigeria and the liquidation of Heritage Bank, this will reinforce the perceptions of systemic risk.
Recapitalisation offers an opportunity to reset governance standards, but only if it is accompanied by stricter enforcement and greater transparency, with the key stakeholders seeing beyond the capital growth.
As if traditional challenges were not enough, Nigerian banks are also facing increasing competition from fintech companies. Nigeria has emerged as a leading fintech hub in Africa, reshaping payments, lending, and digital banking.
To remain relevant, banks must invest heavily in technology, an area that requires not just capital, but smart capital, ensuring that digital innovation becomes a core strength rather than an external add-on. The recapitalisation exercise provides the financial capacity. Whether banks use it effectively is another matter entirely.
So, are Nigeria’s new capital thresholds already outdated? Not yet. But they are already under pressure, pressure from inflation, currency weakness, global competition, and Nigeria’s own economic ambitions.
The truth is that the reforms are a step in the right direction, but they may already be systemically weak in the face of global realities. Whilst the actors keep focusing heavily on capital thresholds without addressing deeper structural issues, the reforms risk creating a system that is compliant, but not competitive, stable but not strong.
The recapitalisation exercise has bought Nigeria time. That is its greatest achievement. But time is only valuable if it is used wisely.
If policymakers treat this reform as a destination, the thresholds will age faster than expected. If they treat it as a foundation, Nigeria has a chance to build a banking system capable of supporting its ambitions.
It can either strengthen its financial foundations to match its economic ambitions or continue to pursue growth on a fragile base.
The warning signs are already visible. Systemic weaknesses, if left unaddressed, will not remain contained; they will surface at the worst possible moment, undermining confidence and limiting progress.
Otherwise, the uncomfortable truth will persist; one well-capitalised bank elsewhere will continue to stand taller than an entire banking system at home. Whilst a $1 trillion economy cannot be built on a weak banking system. The sooner this reality is acknowledged, the better Nigeria’s chances of turning ambition into achievement.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
E-Financial
SEC Unveils Probate/Unclaimed Monies Clinic to Help Families Recover Inherited Investments
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has intensified efforts to reduce unclaimed funds and other dormant investment assets by launching a Probate/Unclaimed Monies Awareness and Investor Clinic aimed at helping beneficiaries recover inherited investments and strengthening investor protection in Nigeria’s capital market.
Speaking at the opening of the clinic in Abuja organised by the Commission in partnership with Meristem on Thursday, Dr. Emomotimi Agama, director-general, SEC, said the initiative was designed to bridge the gap between investors’ legal entitlements and their ability to access inherited assets.
He noted that many Nigerian families face prolonged delays in accessing shares, dividends and other investments after the death of loved ones because they are unfamiliar with probate procedures, documentation requirements and registrar processes.
“For many Nigerian families, the death of a loved one who held shares, dividends, or other investments marks the beginning of a long and often confusing journey,” Agama said.
Describing unclaimed funds and dormant assets as a persistent challenge, he said they represent “real money that belongs to real families, sitting idle, disconnected from the people it was meant to serve.”
According to him, the Commission is committed to closing the gap through policy initiatives and direct engagement with investors.
He explained that the clinic brought together the Federal Ministry of Justice, the Probate Registry, the National Population Commission and capital market registrars to provide practical guidance on probate procedures, required documentation and the recovery of inherited investments.
“Today is not simply an awareness session. It is a working clinic, designed to equip you with practical knowledge: how probate works, how to obtain the right documentation, and how to recover what is rightfully yours,” he said.
Agama stressed that SEC’s mandate to protect investors extends beyond the lifetime of shareholders.
“This Commission exists to protect your rights in the capital market, and that protection does not end when a shareholder passes on. It extends to ensuring their beneficiaries can access what is due to them without unnecessary hardship,” he added.
Also speaking, Ms. Nkechinyelu Okoye, acting chief executive officer, Meristem Registrars and Probate Services Limited, identified lack of awareness and poor estate planning as key reasons billions of naira in financial assets remain unclaimed.
“There are three categories of beneficiaries that we encounter quite often. The first are those who think only land, houses and other physical assets can be transferred legally from deceased loved ones. They do not realise that financial assets such as shares, fixed income investments and even money in savings apps also form part of an estate,” she said.
Okoye said another group consists of beneficiaries who are unaware their deceased relatives owned financial assets, while a third group knows the investments exist but does not understand the claims process or required documentation.
“I dare add a fourth category. These are investors who do not provide or update their KYC documents and, as a result, when they pass on, their loved ones have no idea they have investments to claim,” she said.
According to her, these factors have contributed to the rising volume of unclaimed dividends, dormant accounts and other abandoned financial assets.
“All of these categories contribute to the several unclaimed assets lying all around. Ultimately, financial resources that could have been beneficial to these beneficiaries remain inaccessible,” she said.
She described the investor clinic as more than an awareness programme, saying it would provide practical support to investors, beneficiaries, executors and administrators.
“Our goal is to empower investors, beneficiaries, executors, administrators and the general public with the knowledge they need to navigate probate and estate administration with greater confidence,” Okoye said.
She also urged investors to prepare valid wills, maintain accurate shareholder records and regularly update their Know Your Customer (KYC) information to make it easier for beneficiaries to access inherited investments.
“We want investors to appreciate the importance of preparing a valid Will, maintaining accurate shareholder records and ensuring that their affairs are properly organised. Taking these simple steps today can save families considerable stress and delay in the future,” she added.
The SEC said the clinic forms part of its broader investor protection strategy and provides participants with direct access to experts on tracing investments, verifying shareholder records, resolving probate-related issues and recovering unclaimed capital market assets.
Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has reassured on the multiple layers of protection for the Nigerian banking industry with more than 98 per cent of depositors and 281 million accounts insured by the corporation.
Thompson Sunday, managing director, NDIC, gave the assurance in Lagos at the retreat for members of the House Of Representatives Committee on Insurance and Actuarial Matters.
He said that striking the right balance between innovation, consumer protection, and financial stability remains a key policy imperative.
The theme of the retreat was “Strengthening the Financial Safety Net in an Era of Banking Sector Recapitalisation and Fintech Innovation”.
He said the increasing digitisation of financial services has heightened exposure to cyber threats, fraud, data breaches, and operational risks.
He said that with banks’ adoption of emerging technologies, regulators and safety-net participants must remain proactive in identifying and mitigating these risks while encouraging innovation.
Sunday also highlighted the rapid growth of financial technology (fintech) which has revolutionised the way financial services are delivered.
He said: “Digital banking platforms, mobile money services, payment solution providers, and other fintech innovations have expanded access to financial services and accelerated progress toward financial inclusion. Millions of previously unbanked and underserved Nigerians now have access to formal financial services through digital channels”.
He said that as the banking industry adjusts to higher capital requirements and technological innovations reshape financial service delivery, adding that its imperativefor banks to reinforce rules that safeguard financial stability and protect depositors’ funds.
According to him, a strong and well-coordinated financial safety net system is necessary for maintaining stability and resilience in any modern financial system.
“It promotes public confidence, protects depositors, supports orderly resolution of distressed financial institutions, and helps prevent systemic crises. At a time when Nigeria is pursuing ambitious economic growth objectives, including the goal of attaining a one trillion-dollar economy in 2030, a robust and credible financial safety net is essential to maintaining depositors’ and investors’ confidence and enhancing financial system resilience,” Sunday said.
He said the recently concluded banking sector recapitalisation programme represents a significant milestone in strengthening the capacity of Nigerian banks to support economic development.
“Well-capitalised banks are better positioned to absorb shocks, finance large-scale investments, support enterprise growth, and withstand periods of economic uncertainty. However, while recapitalisation enhances the resilience of financial institutions, it must be complemented by effective regulation, sound governance practices, strong risk management frameworks and good compliance culture, all attribute of a reliable financial safety net,” Sunday said.
He said the stability of the financial system depends largely on the trust that depositors and investors place in financial institutions.
He said: “History has shown that where confidence is low, distress can spread rapidly, threatening the stability of, not only the financial system but the wider economy. It is, therefore, essential that institutions responsible for financial stability continue to strengthen measures that preserve and enhance public trust.
Also speaking, opening remarks, Ahmadu Usman Jaha, chairman, House Committee on Insurance and Actuarial Matters, said financial systems across the globe are being reshaped by rapid technological advancement, digital financial services, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity risks, and changing customer expectations.
He said Nigeria is undertaking one of the most significant banking recapitalisation exercises in its recent history, requiring banks to strengthen their capital base while remaining innovative, resilient and competitive.
“These developments present enormous opportunities for economic growth, financial inclusion and innovation. However, they also introduce new categories of systemic risks that require stronger institutions, modern regulatory frameworks, and robust financial safety nets capable of maintaining public confidence under all circumstances,” he said.
He explained that Nigeria’s banking industry continues to occupy a central position in our economy with banking sector assets running into several trillions of naira and serving tens of million of depositors across conventional banking channels and rapidly expanding digita platforms.
“Equally important is the rapid expansion of financial technology. While fintech innovation has significantly increased financial inclusion and payment efficiency, it also raises complex issues relating to cyber resilience, operational risk, consumer protection, digital fraud, and the scope of deposit insurance coverage. These are issues that require continuous legislative attention and collaborative policy responses,” he stated.
Nigeria’s $92 billion virtual asset market, built overwhelmingly by young Nigerians and now the largest in Sub-Saharan Africa, risks being driven offshore by the new Guidelines on the Taxation of Virtual Assets, the Digital Assets Coalition warned, as it published its formal position paper on the framework, which came into force on 3 August 2026.
The Coalition, the industry alliance representing digital-asset participants and operators in Nigeria, opens the paper, titled “Tax the Profit, Not the Movement of Money”, with an unambiguous statement of support for taxation. It backs taxing real gains, registering platforms, verifying customers, and requiring full transaction reporting, in line with the standards of the United Kingdom, South Africa, and Brazil.
The Coalition objects to the charges on the gross movement of money rather than on any profit earned. The first is a 1.5% stamp duty on every conversion between naira and digital assets, never refunded and charged whether a person gains or loses. The second is a 1% withholding deducted from the entire value of every sale, even where the seller made a loss. A third concern is the requirement to remit taxes in tokens, which is inconsistent with the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, 2025, whose Section 39 mandates payment in currency.
Obinna Iwuno, spokesperson of the Digital Assets Coalition, while presenting the position of the Coalition at a press conference in Lagos yesterday said: “We support the taxation of virtual assets without qualification,” said “Our concern is with a design choice that taxes the movement of money itself. This charge falls on a remittance to a student abroad, on a freelancer converting earnings already taxed as income, and on a trader in a year they lost money. That is not a tax on profit. It is a toll on participation.”
The burden falls hardest on the young Nigerians who built the market as working infrastructure for global earnings, family remittances, and savings that survive Naira volatility. Because young users transact small and often, the levies compound fastest against their pattern of use.
They bite even below the ₦10 million threshold the Nigeria Tax Act itself exempts and within the ₦800,000 income band taxed at zero, while filing burdens can exceed a student’s entire earnings. “The framework is anti-youth in effect, even if not in intent,” Iwuno said. “You cannot tax your way into the future by taxing the people building it.”
Every comparable country has reversed course. India’s 1% transaction withholding saw regulated exchanges lose 81% of volume within four months, with over 90% of trading moving offshore within a year, according to the Esya Centre. Kenya repealed its 3% transaction tax in 2025, and Turkey withdrew a similar levy in 2026.
The Coalition calls on the Nigeria Revenue Service to defer commencement and consult publicly, to tax real gains rather than movement, to collect taxes in Naira, to protect small earners with a de minimis exemption, to retain registration and reporting in full, and to confirm that tax rates are set only by the National Assembly.
“This is not a fight against taxation. It is a request for a design that works for citizens and the Revenue Service alike,” Iwuno added. “The Coalition stands ready to help make a workable framework succeed.”
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