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The Week Ahead: U.S. Corporate Earnings, BOE & China’s GDP

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The robust U.S. jobs report at the conclusion of last week sent equities towards record levels on Friday, with the S&P 500 ending the session less than one point away from its record high seen on May 21 last year.

Bond traders were less impressed by the news that 287,000 jobs were added to the economy in June as the U.S. yield curve continued to flatten with long dated bond yields declining to record lows.

In a regular trading environment stocks and bonds should be moving in opposite directions and the current performance shows that investors believe that the accommodative Fed policy will remain for an extended period of time, which also explains why the upside dollar strength was limited on Friday.

Corporate America still in recession?
Sustainable improvements in US economic data along with low interest rates expectations create the best catalyst for equities to rally further but an important ingredient of the formula is still missing, with this being earning growth.

Without growth in earnings this rally won’t be justified, and this is why investors will be monitoring the corporate earnings results that are expected to be released over the upcoming days.

Alcoa kicks off the second quarter earnings season on Monday followed by JP Morgan on Thursday, and then Citi Bank along with Wells Fargoon Friday.

Analysts believe that we are going to see the fourth consecutive quarter of negative earnings growth but when you take into consideration that the energy sector was the biggest drag on the S&P index due to the collapse in oil and that the price of oil has rebounded in recent months, it will be interesting to see if earnings including the energy sector will recover from recession in Q2.

All eyes on Carney this Thursday
The Bank of England (BoE) will meet for the first time this week following the Brexit vote which has consequently sent the sterling to 31-year lows and resulted in an air of panic following huge amounts of money exiting the UK’s largest property funds.

While the central bank has already started loosening policy through easing regulatory restrains on UK banks in a move aimed to free up an additional £150 billion to the economy, there is the possibility that the BoE could be considering bringing in some emergency measures to stem the amount of money leaving property funds.

Markets seem to be divided on whether the BoE will cut or leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday, but even if kept unchanged they will likely send a strong hint for a possible move in August when they are due to publish new forecasts in their quarterly inflation report. Another option on the card aside from an adjustment in interest rates could be to boost their asset purchase program, which currently stands at £375 billion.

Whether the pound has reached a short-term bottom or is heading for new 30+ year lows likely depends on the tone of the message or even the aggressiveness of the possible actions to be delivered on Thursday.

China’s economic growth continues to slow
China will also be under the spotlight again when it reports its second quarter GDP performance on Friday. Growth for the second largest economy is expected to slow further to 6.6% from the 6.7% seen in first quarter as the economy gradually continues to slowdown. The National Bureau of Statistics said last week that it will include spending on research and development to better reflect the contribution of innovation to economic growth. The adjustments come as officials struggle to maintain their 6.5% – 7% target growth for 2016 while many economists believe that real growth rates are actually much lower than what is officially declared.

Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist at FXTM


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E-Financial

CBN Licenses Unified Payments as Second Provider for PTSA Services for Nigeria

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has awarded the country’s second Payment Terminal Service Aggregator (PTSA) license to Unified Payments, Nigeria’s premier financial technology company, following a rigorous and transparent process,

CBN Licenses Unified Payments as Second Provider for PTSA Services for Nigeria

The move is targeted at enforcing existing requirement that all transactions from point-of-sale channels in Nigeria must go through a licensed Payment Terminal Service Aggregator (PTSA).

The CBN is enforcing the laws to clamp down on financial crimes and other market misconducts and it aligns with the CBN’s objectives to fully track all electronic transactions in Nigeria, given the propensity of using such transactions to fund insecurity, violent crimes, banditry, kidnapping as well as other vices.

According to one analyst, “By awarding a second PTSA license, the apex bank has proactively responded to industry operators who had expressed serious concerns about channelling all transactions through a single aggregator, the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System PLC (NIBBS), as has been the case for some years.

“With the new policy direction, payments service providers would henceforth route all transactions through either of the two licensed Companies.”

Other financial analysts and industry players have commended the Central Bank, affirming that “the move can be a massive step in the right direction. They also commended the open, transparent, and inclusive manner via which the selection process was managed, and the license awarded.

“The selection process, which lasted for months, began with an invitation for qualified organisations within the payment industry to submit an Expression of Interest document, alongside other requisite documentation and additional capital requirement of N1 billion.”

 

The new management of CBN decided not to give the license out without going through an open process – and for the first time in licensing a payment service provider – the apex bank went through a public bid process outlined in its publication of Friday, January 5, 2024, in different national newspapers. At the end of the process, Unified Payments emerged as the most preferred service provider.

Unified Payment Services Limited, also called Unified Payments or UP, is a shared service provider within Nigeria’s financial technology sector owned by a consortium of Nigerian banks. For over 26 years, the firm has provided payment technology to banks and other industry operators. The first and only non-bank entity that is a principal member and licensed acquirer of all of American Express, Mastercard, Visa, UnionPay and Payattitude. Unified Payments facilitates both local and international transactions.

Formerly known as ValuCard Nigeria Plc, Unified Payments led the way to introduce POS payments in Nigeria under its card scheme known as ValuCard which is the first payment card to be issued in Nigeria. The company later transformed into a scheme-neutral and option-neutral service provider enabling transactions under different schemes.

The company has continued to provide leading payment technologies and services, enabling different operators to leverage its capabilities and licenses, enabling prompt and seamless transactions.

Among the shareholders of Unified Payments are First Bank, Access Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, Zenith Bank and Fidelity Bank. Other shareholders are Citibank Nigeria Limited, Ecobank of Nigeria Plc, First City Monument Bank Plc, Keystone Bank Ltd, Polaris Bank Ltd, Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc, Sterling Bank Plc and Wema Bank Plc.


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CIBN says Recapitalization will Empower Banks to Lend more to Economy

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Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, CIBN, has expressed support for the ongoing banking recapitalization exercise saying it will empower banks to lend more to the economy.

CIBN President, Dr. Ken Opara stated this yesterday while speaking at the annual lecture of the institute in Lagos, with the theme “Improving Availability of Credit in the Nigerian Real Economy: The Critical Importance of Liquidity.”

Okpara noted that the volume of credit to the real sector activities namely agriculture, manufacturing and services is low compared to their critical role in driving economic growth.

Consequently, he called for more credit to the real sector, saying, “I   propose that we consider offering more credit to these key sectors and particularly the agriculture sector. It is for this reason that the Recapitalization exercise is a welcome development.

“The recently announced upward review of the Minimum Capital Requirements of Nigeria by the Central Bank of Nigeria would further empower banks to extend more credit to the economy’s productive sectors.”

To address these factors impeding credit to the real sector, Okpara suggested that, “The government needs to improve further the ease of doing business and infrastructural development, such as power, roads, rail networks, etc.

“Setting up industrial centres where these companies can co-habit and share common infrastructure. Harmonize and reduce the various taxes and levies, including locating them in a single hub.

“Banks need to be deliberate in de-risking these companies via Capacity building programmes, and Advisory services.

Specialised Financial Institutions can be created in addition to the Bank of Industry (BOI), especially credit guarantee agencies and risk-sharing institutions, to further facilitate the deepening of credit as practiced in countries such as China which significantly transformed its economy.


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New Report Reveals 20% of Nigerians Use Bitcoin to Transact Daily

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A new report claims that 20 per cent of Nigerians are using Bitcoin to carry out financial transactions every day.

According to the open-source blockchain website, Elastos, the research was compiled from online interviews conducted with 1,407 self-defined ‘tech savvy’ respondents in Brazil, Germany, Nigeria, South Korea, UAE, the UK, and the US.

The interviews were completed by a third party, a registered market research company and completed between 30 March and 04 April ’24.

The report further revealed that 67 per cent of Nigerians would have more trust in Bitcoin to put their life savings than banks and local governments.

The report reads; “The inaugural BIT Index (Bitcoin; Innovation & Trust) – compiled from over 1,400 self-defined ‘tech savvy’ respondents from 7 countries across the globe – sheds light on the actual perception and use of Bitcoin in people’s daily lives, irrespective of its current valuation. Elastos’ BIT Index is part of ongoing research to better track the ‘real world’ use of Bitcoin together with users’ motivations, expectations and barriers around the same.

“In particular, the data reveals the role being played by emerging markets in terms of understanding, usage and confidence around Bitcoin. Nigerian respondents’ levels of usage and trust compare starkly with those expressed from so-called ‘established’ markets such as Germany and the UK and Germany where daily usage levels are just 8% (for German respondents) and (9% for their UK counterparts).

“In terms of the trust – in addition to Nigeria – significant proportions of respondents from Brazil (35 per cent) and the UAE (32 per cent) would have more confidence in Bitcoin-based services to protect their life savings compared to those from markets such as the UK (20 per cent) and Germany (22 per cent).

“When it comes to ensuring the integrity of online transactions, emerging market respondents also revealed their relative confidence in Bitcoin, compared to alternatives. According to the data, 66 per cent of Nigerian respondents and 35 per cent from Brazil have more confidence in Bitcoin-based systems than alternatives such as banks, or national Governments, compared to figures of just 16 per cent (Germany) and 21 per cent (UK) who feel the same.


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