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UK Inflation Reaches Highest Level Since Nov 2014

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Market headlines are continuing to focus on the UK economy after data earlier today showed that inflation accelerated in July with CPI rising to an annualised 0.6%.

This week represents the first true week of economic data from the United Kingdom following the unexpected Brexit outcome of the EU referendum vote, but a few shocks are already being heard after the news that import prices increased at the strongest rate since 2011.

The news that import prices have increased by such a staggering amount shows that the collapse in Sterling is already having an impact on imports and should feed through and lift inflationary pressures over the upcoming months.

There is now an emergence of expectations that headline inflation could overshoot the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target over the coming quarters, which would provide a dilemma for the BoE as the central bank is being forced into an easing bias as the UK growth outlook weakens.

Usually when there is a risk that inflation could exceed a central bank target, the respective central bank would find themselves under pressure to ease pressure by lifting interest rates higher, however this not an option for the BoE who are having to ease policy in the aftermath of the EU referendum outcome.   

While the GBPUSD has moved higher throughout trading on Tuesday, this is more likely to be a short correction following a recent period of significant losses.

The gains in the GBPUSD are likely to find themselves capped somewhere between 1.3020-50 at this point in time, while the risks for the pair remain skewed to the downside  for the future, as the UK economic outlook continues to deteriorate.

Sterling was unable to benefit from substantial weakness in the Dollar since the end of last week, which points out that the overall buying sentiment towards the British Pound remains very weak.

Dollar slump aiding EURUSD
Dollar weakness, following a heavily disappointing US retail sales release and another resumption of crumbling US interest rate expectations, has resulted in the Dollar drifting sharply lower against the majority of its trading partners.

The crumbling of the USD has catapulted the Eurodollar to its highest level since late June at 1.1275. As US interest rates continue to be pushed back the Eurodollar can continue to drive higher, although any move between 1.1300 and 1.1320 could expose an over-extension and trigger the alert of sellers.

Expectations over the US Federal Reserve being able to raise US interest rates in 2016 seem to be being pushed back by the minute, while investors will be awaiting  further clues around the intentions of the Federal Reserve in 2016 when the US central bank releases its latest meeting minutes tomorrow.

Although the Federal Reserve is trying to maintain a public stance towards raising US interest rates, you just have to monitor the ongoing resumption of crumbling rate expectations to gain an understanding that investors are not confident at all that the Federal Reserve will realistically carry through with the pledge to raise interest rates.

Japanese Yen remains trader’s choice
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to wake up to concerns on Wednesday morning after the USDJPY fell below the highly psychological 100 level just moments ago.

There is a lot of speculation that the BoJ are ready to intervene in the markets as the USDJPY approaches 100, but the real concern for the central bank must be that traders are constantly attracted towards the Yen despite everyone knowing that a strong Yen is the complete opposite to what the BoJ desires.

The correlation between such consistent buying demand for the Yen and equity markets is very unusual and in fact, the relationship should be moving in the opposite direction.

Such consistent buying demand for the Yen just shows that investors are still attracted towards the currency as a safe-haven in light of the uncertain external environment that is weighing on global growth prospects.

This is also going to be a problem for the BoJ if the central bank does press the panic button on aggressive stimulus in an attempt to weaken the Yen, because traders could reject the stimulus and continue backing the currency as a safety asset.
 

Jameel Ahmad is VP of Market Research at FXTM


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E-Financial

FG Says All Taxable Nigerian Must Obtain Taxpayer ID

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Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), in collaboration with the Joint Revenue Board (JRB), has announced the implementation of a nationwide Taxpayer Identification (Tax ID) system, mandating all taxable persons in the country to obtain a unified tax identity.

FG Says All Taxable Nigerian Must Obtain Taxpayer ID

The directive, unveiled in a public notice issued on Monday, is anchored in sections 6, 7, and 8 of the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, 2025.

The provisions require every individual and entity liable to tax in Nigeria to register for a Tax ID as part of broader reforms aimed at strengthening tax administration.

According to the notice, the Tax ID will function as a single, consolidated identifier for taxpayers, enabling seamless interaction with tax authorities across federal, state, and local levels.

The authorities said the system is designed to eliminate duplication of records, improve data integrity, and enhance the overall efficiency of tax-related processes.

The initiative forms part of ongoing efforts by regulators to deepen transparency, boost compliance, and curb revenue leakages within the tax ecosystem.

By harmonising taxpayer data across all tiers of government, officials expect improved accountability and more accurate tracking of tax obligations.

Under the new framework, the Tax ID will replace the existing Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN) validation system currently in use. Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), financial institutions, and other organisations relying on the TIN Validation API have been directed to transition to the new Tax ID infrastructure.

The NRS and JRB also advised organisations requiring system integration or validation services to engage with designated departments within both agencies for access to the Tax ID Application Programming Interface (API) and related technical guidelines.

Authorities say the reform will simplify registration, filing, and payment processes for taxpayers, while providing the government with a more robust mechanism for revenue assurance and fiscal planning.

The rollout signals a significant step in Nigeria’s ongoing tax modernisation agenda, as policymakers seek to expand the tax base and improve non-oil revenue mobilisation amid evolving economic pressures.

 

 


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SEC Sets June 1 for Transition to T+1 Settlement Cycle

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the transition to the T+1 settlement cycle for capital market transactions from June 1, 2026.

SEC Sets June 1 for Transition to T+1 Settlement Cycle

T+1 settlement is a financial rule requiring that securities trades (like stocks, bonds, and ETFs) be finalized and ownership transferred just one business day after the trade is executed. It replaces the older T+2 system, giving investors faster access to their funds and reducing overall market risk.

This is coming some months after Nigeria moved from the T+3 settlement cycle to the T+2 settlement cycle.

In a notice on Monday, the SEC, which is the apex capital market regulator in Nigeria, said it was authorising the new system to “promote an efficient, fair, and transparent capital market.”

Under the new arrangement, equities and commodities traded by investors at the market would be cleared and settled by the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) within one day.

The agency noted that the migration to a T+1 settlement cycle forms part of its ongoing market modernisation initiatives aimed at enhancing market efficiency and strengthening risk management. reducing counterparty exposure, improving liquidity, and aligning the Nigerian capital market with international standards and global best practices.

“Accordingly, all eligible trades executed in the Nigerian capital market shall settle one business day after the trade date (T+1),” a part of the statement noted.

It was stressed that “Friday, May 29, 2026, shall be the final trading day under the existing T+2 settlement cycle. Trades executed on Friday, May 29, 2026, and Monday, June 1, 2026, shall both settle on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. All trades executed from Monday, June 1, 2026, onward shall be subject to the T+1 settlement cycle.”

SEC tasked all capital market operators, securities exchanges, clearing and settlement infrastructure providers, custodians, registrars, issuers, and other relevant stakeholders to take all necessary measures to ensure full operational readiness and compliance with the new settlement framework.

“Market participants are expected to review and align their systems, processes, controls, and operational workflows ahead of the implementation date,” it further stated, promising to continue to engage stakeholders and monitor the implementation process to ensure an orderly and seamless transition.

The regulator said it remains committed to strengthening market integrity, enhancing investor confidence, and fostering the development of a modern. resilient and globally competitive Nigerian capital market.

 


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Chapel Hill Denham Says Banks Lose N2.5 Trillion Annually to High CRR in New Report

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Nigeria’s banking sector is losing an estimated N2.5 trillion in annual earnings due to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s high Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) policy, according to a new report by Chapel Hill Denham.

Chapel Hill Denham Says Banks Lose N2.5 Trillion Annually to High CRR in New Report

The investment banking and research firm said the policy continues to impose significant constraints on bank profitability by requiring lenders to keep a large portion of customer deposits with the Central Bank without earning returns on them, effectively locking away funds that could otherwise support lending and income generation.

In its report titled “The Nigerian Banking Paradox: High Returns, Deep Discounts,” Chapel Hill Denham noted that although Nigerian banks rank among the highest return-on-equity performers in Africa, they remain undervalued compared to peers, largely due to regulatory constraints and macroeconomic uncertainty.

The firm identified the CRR regime as a key structural factor limiting the sector’s earnings potential, arguing that it reduces balance sheet efficiency and restricts credit creation to the real economy.

According to the report, banks are still required to pay interest on deposits while a significant portion of those funds remains sterilised at the apex bank.

Chapel Hill Denham stated that the current policy framework, which evolved in response to past financial sector instability and exchange rate pressures, may now be exerting a heavier drag on growth and profitability than originally intended.

“Our analysis reveals that Nigerian banks operate under a uniquely restrictive regulatory perimeter,” the report said, adding that the structure suppresses reported returns despite underlying profitability strength.

The report also compared Nigeria’s reserve requirements with other jurisdictions, noting that the country’s CRR remains significantly higher than several African and emerging markets.

While South Africa operates a 2.5 per cent CRR, Kenya maintains 4.25 per cent, Ghana 15 per cent, and Egypt 16 per cent, with Morocco reported to have reduced its reserve ratio to zero.

Analysts at the firm said a moderation of Nigeria’s CRR from 50 per cent to 30 per cent could release up to N8 trillion into the banking system and potentially boost annual pre-tax profits by about N800 billion.

They added that investors currently price Nigerian banks on the assumption that the tight monetary stance will persist, limiting valuation upside despite strong earnings performance.

At its February 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria retained the CRR for Deposit Money Banks at 45 per cent, while Merchant Banks remained at 16 per cent, and public sector deposits outside the Treasury Single Account framework at 75 per cent, as part of efforts to sustain tight monetary conditions and manage liquidity pressures.


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